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[SMM comment] Shanghai Copper and Nickel rose by more than 1%. Last period crude oil fell slightly and iron ore rose nearly 3%.
Jul 7,2020 09:43CST
translation
Source:SMM
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM7 March 7: most of the LME metal market is red this morning. As of 09:35, Lun zinc rose nearly 0.3%, Lun copper rose nearly 0.2%, Lun lead rose nearly 0.1%, Shanghai aluminum rose slightly red, Lunxi was flat, Lunni fell nearly 0.3%, domestic non-ferrous metals generally rose, Shanghai copper and nickel rose nearly 1.3%, Shanghai tin rose nearly 0.6%, Shanghai zinc and aluminum rose nearly 0.3%, and Shanghai lead was flat.

As for copper, as of Friday, the SMM copper concentrate index (weekly) was at $51.37 / tonne, down 12 cents / tonne from June 19. Last week, the copper concentrate market was relatively light, SMM learned that a small number of spot transactions in the 50 low, trading range has not changed significantly. However, with the gradual tension of the epidemic situation in Chile, the seller's bearish sentiment has increased, and the offer still has a downward trend in the second half of the week. The overseas back structure further widened the import loss, leading to a further decline in the Yangshan copper premium. The decline of inventory in the bonded area slows down, and there are opportunities for further growth. According to SMM research, copper inventories in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone decreased by 1000 tons to 208500 tons month-on-month on Friday. Inventories fell in the second week, but the decline slowed significantly. The upsurge of copper futures suppressed domestic consumption, and the price spread of fine waste continued to expand to more than 2000 yuan / ton, further squeezing out the demand for refined copper, superimposed by the influx of imported copper into China last week, and the inventory of the three places increased significantly.

"[SMM Analysis] the LME copper spot discount has reproduced the back structure for more than a year. Who is the driving force?

For tin, in the short term, the tight supply in the upper and middle reaches of the city will continue. On June 27, the Myanmar Central Committee for Prevention and Control of the New Crown virus announced that the control of the epidemic in Myanmar had been extended to July 15, and the shortage of tin mines in the country was expected to continue. The import of tin ore will remain at about 60% of the normal level in the short term. The tightening of production caused by tight mine supply is expected to support tin prices to some extent. Yesterday, the tin above the Shanghai Stock Exchange has broken through all the platforms of the year, approaching the high in September last year, and has broken through the Bollinger belt on the track. Since early April, Shanghai tin has been steadily moving upward near the 5-day moving average, and the rising trend has not declined. We need to continue to observe the follow-up situation. If it stabilizes effectively below, it is expected to hit a high of 143600 yuan / ton in September last year.

[SMM Analysis] Tin shares have recovered their losses over the past five months, and non-ferrous stocks have risen by more than 6 per cent, up by the daily limit of more than 6 per cent.

In terms of black, thread rose nearly 0.6%, hot coil rose nearly 0.8%, stainless steel rose nearly 0.9%, coke rose nearly 1%, coking coal rose slightly, iron ore rose nearly 3%, yesterday black commodity performance was lacklustre, RB2010 all-day shock operation, closing down 1 yuan / ton compared with the previous day, the profit effect is poor, and the heat of the stock market is in sharp contrast to the desolation of commodities. This week, many torrential rains, the opening of the sea-watching mode, and the shutdown of the college entrance examination site all had a restraining effect on demand. at the same time, the large capital inflows attracted by the stock market also diverted the speculation funds in the futures market, showing a wide shock trend of weak upside and falling resistance. It is expected that it will be difficult to have a better trend in the short term. Based on the above analysis, we believe that although the global economy is recovering recently, it has not yet returned to the level before the epidemic. Under such circumstances, liquidity will not be significantly tightened and will maintain a reasonable and abundant state, which will help to support the further strengthening of the stock market, while black demand will be difficult to significantly increase in the short term, which will restrain its performance. Short-term operations can consider choosing an opportunity to long stock index to short black. However, with the gradual removal of the factors affecting demand, driven by the stock market, black will also follow and strengthen. Of course, a sharp rise in the short-term index carries the risk of a profit sell-off correction, and a pullback in the market will provide an excellent opportunity to get on the bus.

"[SMM analysis] the performance of the commodity is lacklustre, so let's point to the short black.

The previous period of crude oil fell slightly and US oil closed largely stable yesterday as positive economic data supported oil prices, but a surge in the number of new cases in the US could dampen fuel demand and put pressure on prices.

In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold rose nearly 0.1%, Shanghai silver rose nearly 0.9%, gold prices were supported by a sharp decline in the dollar index, and the surge in the number of new cases around the world also led to a surge in safe haven demand. however, strong stock markets and positive US service sector data have limited gold's gains.

As of 09:35, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:

Brief comments on SMM:

Copper: last night, Lun Copper closed at 6140 US dollars / ton, up 2.08%. The trading volume was 16000 lots, and the short positions were reduced by 4235 to 234000 lots. The Shanghai Copper 2008 contract closed at 49320 yuan / ton, up 0.57%, the trading volume was 52000 lots, and the short positions were reduced by 187 lots to 117000 lots. Copper prices continued to rise last night, starting from early trading. The outer disk recovered the shady line on Friday and set a new high after the Spring Festival. Shanghai copper night trading also stood firm after opening at 49300, and the rising momentum of copper prices continued. On the macro front, as investors' expectations for a strong rebound in the Chinese market rose and economic data from the United States and Europe repaired resonance month-on-month, risk assets rose sharply yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 5.71 percent, and copper prices were driven higher by optimism. On the spot side, the improvement in market acceptance sentiment has given traders quite false confidence and is expected to maintain a small uptrend today. It is expected that today Lunzhong 6150PUE 6210 US dollars / ton, inner plate 49300PUE 49800 yuan / ton. It is estimated that the spot water is 20 yuan / ton today-40 yuan / ton.

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Aluminum: yesterday Shanghai aluminum main 2008 contract opened at 14055 yuan / ton in the morning, pressurized at 14100 yuan / ton in the afternoon, and fluctuated within a narrow range of 14040 won 14110 yuan / ton below; afternoon volume breakthrough, intraday high to 14155 yuan / ton, late closing up at 14125 yuan / ton, trading volume increased to 103000 hands, position reduced to 167000 hands, daily close Xiaoyang, the center of gravity continued to move up, the price hit a new high. The total position in Shanghai Aluminum Futures decreased slightly to 434000 lots, and the trading volume increased to 190000 lots. The main force of Shanghai Aluminum opened slightly higher at 14155 yuan / ton, the operating range was 14150, 14200 yuan / ton, and then closed at 14165 yuan / ton. The national aluminum ingot inventory dropped slightly, the monthly difference fluctuated in a wide range in recent months, and the base difference continued to fall under the impact of imported aluminum ingots. Today, the main operating range of Shanghai aluminum is expected to be 14000 million yuan / ton.

Lead: overnight, Shanghai lead opened at 14710 yuan / ton. At the beginning of trading, Shanghai lead rose rapidly after exploring low, then fell back under pressure after reaching 14710 yuan, and finally reported at 14625 yuan / ton, a decline of 0.17%. Shanghai lead closed at 5 consecutive overcast, mainly due to the current poor fundamentals.

Zinc: overnight, the main 2008 contract of Shanghai zinc opened at 16820 yuan / ton, driven by the outer disk at the beginning of the day, Shanghai zinc concussion went higher, the center of gravity moved up to 16830 yuan / ton, mostly under the empty level, Shanghai zinc touched a low of 16775 yuan / ton instead, and the operating center of gravity returned to 16830 yuan / ton finishing. During this period, it touched a high of 16855 yuan / ton, the end of the market stopped earnings at the end of the market, Shanghai zinc slightly moved down to 16810 yuan / ton consolidation, and finally closed up at 16815 yuan / ton, up 95 yuan / ton. The trading volume increased by 0.57% to 49919 lots, while the position increased by 1045 lots to 87179 lots. Overnight, Shanghai zinc received a cross-shaped Xiaoyin line, the lower 5 / 10 line adhered to support, and the opening of KDJ index narrowed upward. The overnight stock market rose sharply, superimposed by non-ferrous general gains, boosting the trend of Shanghai zinc, but the fundamentals deviated from the macro restrictions on the upward trend of Shanghai zinc. Focus on the support strength of the 5 / 10 moving average today. The contract price of Shanghai Zinc 2008 is expected to operate in the range of 16400 murals 16900 yuan per ton. It is expected that domestic Shuangyan zinc will increase the water price by 80,000,000 yuan / ton in July.

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Nickel: macro boost, Shanghai Nickel main contract strong daytime trend, up 2.13%. High consolidation at night, the operation is relatively stable. The overnight Shanghai Nickel 10 contract opened at 107430 yuan / ton last night. after opening, the short-term consolidation reached a night high of 107800 yuan / ton. then Shanghai Nickel was under pressure at the gate, and the center of gravity moved to the first line of the daily average line of 107400 yuan / ton. Shanghai Nickel fluctuated around the center of gravity in a narrow range. Half an hour before the close, Shanghai Nickel rose slightly again, 107700 yuan / ton first line pressure fell, and finally closed at 107530 yuan / ton, up 420 yuan / ton than the settlement price of the previous trading day. The trading volume increased by 0.39% to 312000 lots, and the position increased by 9123 lots to 137000 lots. Overnight Shanghai Nickel 10 contract closed at Xiaoyangzhu yesterday, Shanghai Nickel broke upstream, Boll line rail pressure has been broken, short-term this position may change from pressure level to support level, below the EMA is multi-headed arrangement, today pay attention to whether Shanghai Nickel can continue the rising market, pay attention to the upper 108000 yuan / ton gate pressure.

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Tin: Shanghai tin trend: Shanghai tin main 2009 contract opened last night at 142800 yuan / ton, the highest 142800 yuan / ton, the lowest 141640 yuan / ton, closed at 142270 yuan / ton, down 220 yuan / ton, 10288 hands, 32037 positions, a decrease of 174hands. Last night's high tin jump in Shanghai opened at this year's highest point of 142800 yuan / ton, and then adjusted down to the lowest point of 141640 yuan / ton under the influence of bulls leaving the market. It rebounded after hitting the bottom, oscillating near 142200 yuan / ton and closing at 142270 yuan / ton, showing a negative line. The physical part is above all moving averages, and the lower support level is expected to be around 140500 yuan / ton.

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