Home / Metal News / Precious Metals / The volume has soared, the screen is full of "bull market", and the number of new accounts opened by securities firms has skyrocketed. Is the bull market really coming? Did you keep up with this wave? Netizen: I feel like I missed hundreds of millions!
The volume has soared, the screen is full of "bull market", and the number of new accounts opened by securities firms has skyrocketed. Is the bull market really coming? Did you keep up with this wave? Netizen: I feel like I missed hundreds of millions!
Jul 7,2020 09:03CST
translation
Source:Futures daily
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM News: yesterday, the three major indices of the A-share market soared across the board, the Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3332 points, and the turnover of the two cities reached a 5-year high. Shanghai 50 stock index futures rarely rise by the daily limit.

CCTV News broadcast mentioned A shares again last night: the Prev rose nearly 6%, a two-and-a-half-year high, and the turnover between the two cities exceeded 1.5 trillion. The reporting time is as long as 72 seconds. At the same time, it also cited the views of experts that China's excellent epidemic prevention and control capabilities and achievements are the biggest momentum of China's economic recovery and stock market rise. The program last reported that the A-share market was on February 6, 2020, when the Prev rose 1.72%, and the three major A-share indexes have risen for three days in a row. Since then, on February 7, the Prev closed up 0.33%, with the largest cumulative gain of 5.5% in the band.

On July 6, local time, driven by the sharp rise in A shares and positive economic data, the three major US stock indexes closed higher across the board, with the Nasdaq up more than 2% to reach a record high, and Apple, Tesla, Amazon, Alibaba, and Jingdong all set record highs. By the close, the Dow was up 459.67 points, or 1.78%, at 26287.03; the Nasdaq was up 226.02 points, or 2.21%, at 10433.65; and the S & P 500 was up 49.71, or 1.59%, at 3179.72.

Last night, the three major European stock indexes also rose across the board, with the European Stoxx50 index up 1.70%. Germany's DAX index rose 1.64% to 12733.45, Britain's FTSE 100 index rose 2.09% to 6285.94, and France's CAC40 index rose 1.49% to 5081.51.

On July 6th, the onshore renminbi closed at 7.0194 yuan against the dollar, up 476 points from the previous day. Turnover was $25.447 billion, an increase of $2.066 billion over the previous day.

The sharp rise in China's stock market, a strong economic recovery and expectations of a new stimulus package have boosted risk appetite.

However, the epidemic situation in the United States is still serious. According to the real-time statistics of Worldometers epidemic situation, the number of confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia in the United States reached 3 million, with 132665 deaths. On the afternoon of the 6th local time, Balthamus, mayor of Atlanta, Georgia, confirmed on social media that he was infected with the new crown virus. The mayor said, "the new crown virus has entered the house. He does not have any symptoms, but he has tested positive."

The US stock panic index VIX rose 0.94 per cent to 27.94 as options markets became more worried about the future of US stocks.

The Shanghai Composite Index rose nearly 6%, and the stock market became popular.

On July 6, the popularity of the stock market and stock index went viral in moments. The CCTV news broadcast rarely mentions A shares again, with a reporting time of 12 seconds.

Some netizens said that it was very painful not to hold brokerage stocks last week. This kind of pain does not mean not making money, but the feeling of "missing out on 100 million".

The securities firm is crazy, and the bank is crazy.

The bank is crazy, the bank is crazy and the insurance is crazy.

Insurance madness, insurance madness gives birth to madness;

The real estate madness, the real estate madness finishes the colored madness;

Colored madness, colored madness finished coal madness;

Coal madness, coal madness after garbage madness;

Garbage madness, garbage madness after retail madness;

Retail investors are crazy, retail investors are at the peak.

The enthusiasm of investors and base people has packed the servers of brokerage and fund APP, and there is even a queue of nearly 500people for brokerage APP to open an online account.

On the morning of July 6, the Futures Daily reporter learned from a medium-sized brokerage that due to excessive trading volume, the brokerage was stuttered in a short period of time due to trading congestion.

A friend of the brokerage told Futures Daily that since mid-June, there has been a significant increase in the number of investors who have come to open accounts.

A friend joked: if the previous stock market is full 3000 minus 200, then Monday's stock market is full 3000 free 300. The reporter found that on July 6, A shares ushered in an all-round general rise, the market popularity was unusually hot, and the Shanghai 50 stock index futures rose by the daily limit. The Shanghai Composite Index rose above 3300 points in the afternoon, its highest level since March 2018, closing up 5.71 per cent at 3332.88 points, 4.09 per cent on the Shenzhen Composite Index and 2.72 per cent on the gem index. Nearly 3600 stocks in the two markets rose, with more than 130 stocks rising by the daily limit. As of the close, the turnover of the two cities exceeded 1.56 trillion yuan, which means that the turnover of A shares exceeded one trillion yuan for three consecutive days.

The reporter found that A shares rose sharply again on Monday, heavyweights continued to make efforts, and the gem was relatively weak. Since July 1, A shares have shown a strong upward trend, with brokerages, real estate, banks and insurance pushing the Shanghai Composite Index above 3300 points in the short term. As of July 6, the A-share style has returned to weight, with the brokerage index up 29% in only four trading days, banks up 16.59%, real estate up 18.06% and insurance up 19.61%. The turnover between the two cities exceeded 1.56 trillion yuan, a five-year high. The total market capitalization of A shares exceeded $10 trillion for the first time since June 2015. The total northbound capital inflow totaled 13.653 billion yuan. Of this total, the Shanghai stock market has a net inflow of 5.101 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen stock market has a net inflow of 8.552 billion yuan.

Since July, northbound funds have flowed 43.962 billion yuan in just four trading days, while the style of foreign capital has always been partial to value investment, and has been adding positions to heavyweights in the process. At the same time, leveraged funds have also increased rapidly. It rose from 1.131374 trillion yuan at the end of June to 1.166765 trillion yuan on July 3, an increase of 35.391 billion yuan in the short term. After the long sentiment in the market was ignited, domestic and foreign investors accelerated the inflow of A shares. " Shenwan Futures Index Futures analyst Jia Tingting said.

It is reported that technology, pharmaceuticals and consumer stocks have all made good returns so far this year, but financial stocks have risen less, but such stocks have relatively low valuations. The repair broke out in July. As of July 6, the valuations of Shanghai 50, CSI 300 and CSI 500 were 10.9, 13.5 and 29.2 respectively, still lower than major overseas indices.

The three major futures indexes rose sharply, and the Shanghai 50 stock index futures rarely rose by the limit.

On Monday, all three major stock indexes rose more than 5%, with some contracts of IH and IF rising by the daily limit. Since last week, the gem index has continued to hit a new high since 2016, while the main board index has risen relative to the gem index. Last week, led by the financial and real estate industries, the Shanghai 50 index closed sharply higher. Yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3288 points, the highest level since 2018.

Some people in the industry believe that there are three main reasons for the recent sharp rise in the market: first, capital market reforms such as the registration system of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and the adjustment of the Shanghai stock index have laid the institutional foundation for the trend rise of the index and inspired investors, especially institutional investors, to increase their positions on a large scale, triggering a recent market rally. Second, under the circumstances that the epidemic of new crown pneumonia abroad continues to get out of control, the US capital market has gone up and down and adjusted, increasing the risk of uncertainty in the foreign capital market; the domestic fundamentals of continuous improvement have formed a positive attraction to northward capital; third, the direct reason is that institutional investors and northbound capital continue to flow in large-scale net inflows, igniting a "bull market" mood, and retail investors follow and cause the market volume to rise.

Throughout the world, the A-share index from 2020 to now, including the gem index, the SME index, the CSI 500, the SSE 50 and the CSI 300, lags far behind most of the world's indices, which not only reflects the relatively optimistic expectations of domestic and foreign funds for China's economy, but also says that China's capital market and Chinese assets are being favored by the world. Since the outbreak of the global new crown epidemic, China has been ahead of most countries in controlling the epidemic and resuming production and work, so it is most certain that the economy will continue to improve in the future. the stock market is the leading indicator and barometer of the economy. the current market trend precisely reflects this consensus.

Han Yinglang, a macro researcher at Everbright Futures, told reporters that there are many reasons why the market is so powerful. First, from the perspective of funds, the interest rate center affected by the epidemic has always been maintained at a low level in the first half of the year, while under the premise of strengthening the institutional trend of retail investors, public offerings, private offerings and northward funds continued to flow substantially in the first half of the year. Second, from the perspective of valuation, a number of A-share indices, especially the main board weight index, are undervalued, and the value depressions of many industries need to be repaired. Third, from the perspective of catalytic factors, the rumors of the merger of the two leading brokerages last week and the institutional stock exchange after the settlement in the middle of the year have contributed to the rapid inflow of capital inflows in recent trading days. Due to the large increase, high volatility and fast pace of the market in the past two days, market sentiment has been quickly ignited, but Han Yinglang believes that the main logic of rising as much as possible every week is still valuation repair, represented by the financial industry whose previous valuations were seriously undervalued. The overall valuations of securities firms, banks, real estate, building materials and non-ferrous, iron and steel and other cyclical industries have rebounded rapidly in recent days. As far as space is concerned, There is still a lot of room for valuation repair in these undervalued industries, but in terms of the way it goes up, the current high rate of rise is not sustainable.

For this strong rally, Mao Lei, a macro researcher at Guotai Junan, believes that the fundamental support for the style switch since July is mainly due to the improvement in fundamentals, that is, the PMI and other data released in July make investors expect the economy to repair. Monday's rally again, mainly because the index broke through 3000 points to 3300 points, the market's "bull market" is expected to fully ignite, the market began to eliminate all "low valuations", not rising varieties, buy in an all-round way. Although the big finance has soared, from the PE point of view, it can not be said that there is a big bubble. Even if there is a valuation premium in this mood, it is perfectly normal. From the perspective of the future, in the absence of major policy intervention, the market pattern is expected to continue. However, with the market trend soaring, if this rise continues, it will lead to more stringent regulation on the policy side, thus affecting risk appetite.

The return of stock index options is considerable.

An investor told Futures Daily that his friend's stock index options account has made a profit of more than 10 times.

Recently, it is not only the stock market, stock index futures and stock index options that are popular.

An industry source told Futures Daily that Shanghai 50 stock index futures IH rose across the board on Monday, with buying Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index options and virtual call options up as much as 1422%.

The reporter learned in the interview that in recent trading days, under the background of the sharp rise in the A-share market, the contract prices of stock index options also fluctuated. In terms of call options, under the combined effect of record highs in the CSI 300 index and a sharp rise in volatility, a number of contracts have risen tens or even hundreds of times, while in terms of put options, although volatility continues to rise, but still can not stop the continuous decline in option prices.

Cao Baiyang, a German futures options analyst, told reporters that the overall trading of financial options has been greatly enlarged recently, and volatility has also gone up all the way in these two trading days. As stock index futures have been gradually repaired from a discount to the current rising position, the implied volatility of call options has also changed from a state in which the implied volatility of call options was significantly lower than that of put options to a state in which the implied volatility of call options is higher than that of put options. At the same time, The sharp rise in implied volatility of call options also reflects the strong bullish sentiment in the market. However, the current level of implied volatility is close to the level of implied volatility in the case of large market fluctuations in mid-late March, so there is limited room for volatility to rise further.

It is worth noting that in the recent option market, the directional bullish strategy has made a lot of gains, while the volatility seller has suffered losses to varying degrees. "it is also reminded that multiple holders of virtual call options should stop earnings in time before the option expires, while volatility seller investors need to pay more attention to stress testing and fund management." Cao Baiyang said.

Investment should be cautious and be careful of periodic adjustment.

As for the trend in the second half of the year, Han Yinglang believes that from a sub-industry perspective, the pharmaceutical, biological and food and beverage industries are already at high valuations after a continuous rise in the first half of the year, or there may be phased adjustments. The new economy, represented by consumer electronics, semiconductors, and electrical equipment, may be a relay, while the cyclical industries in the upper and lower reaches of real estate and infrastructure are expected to respond to market expectations in advance before PPI stops falling and stabilizes. This will happen in the fourth quarter, as the banking and non-bank financial sectors have performed well in recent years but have been weak in share prices, which will initiate a moderate and sustained valuation repair and rebound. At the index level, the differentiation of the three major indices is expected to improve in the second half of the year. The performance certainty advantage of the pharmaceutical and biological industry will continue before the disclosure of the second quarterly report, and then some funds will flow from these high-valued industries to other industries. Funds will flow into two directions: on the one hand, the new economy industries represented by chips, consumer electronics and new energy vehicles, most of which are gem and small and medium-sized board stocks; On the other hand, it will flow into banks, non-bank finance and other financial industries with good performance but persistently weak stock prices and low valuations, which are mainly composed of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 stocks. "there may be a significant reversal in real estate, infrastructure and PPI data in the fourth quarter, when traditional cyclical industries such as non-ferrous, chemical and construction are expected to have a sustained rebound, which is conducive to narrowing the gap between other indices and the gem and small and medium-sized boards."

Mao Lei believes that with the sharp rise in the market trend, if this trend continues, it will lead to stricter regulation and risk prevention measures on the policy side, thus affecting investors' risk appetite. In addition, the profit-taking of the index after a sharp rise may also lead to fluctuations in the index, and investors are advised to remain calm and cautious in the face of a bull market. Some investors even remind everyone to be cautious. As the saying goes, the novice is afraid of a big drop and the veteran is afraid of a big rise. The market is never short of opportunities, and your ability to resist risks is limited.

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