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[SMM Hot Volume Terminal demand report] you think the off-season of demand has not yet arrived-demand resilience remains in July.
Jul 6,2020 18:46CST
translation
Source:SMM
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM Steel July 6: since the middle and last ten days of June, the spot price of sheet coil continues to show a fluctuating trend, and the upward driving force is obviously weaker than the previous period. In addition, July-August is the traditional off-season for the manufacturing industry, which leads to market worries about the decline in sheet demand. However, according to SMM analysis, under the support of the sustained development of infrastructure and the further recovery of automobile and home appliance production and sales, although the growth rate of coil demand in July slowed down compared with the previous period, it still maintained a steady growth trend. The details are as follows:

 

Construction machinery: driven by the rapid construction demand of real estate and the continuous development of infrastructure investment, the production and sales data of excavators in May did not maintain the growth momentum of March and April, but the year-on-year performance was still good, forming a strong support for the demand for plate rolls. At the same time, from the SMM terminal survey. In June, the construction machinery industry still maintained a relatively strong momentum, and the production and sales situation continued to improve compared with the same period last year. However, most of the terminals reported that due to the rainy weather, the situation of new orders received in July was slightly weaker than that in June, fortunately, there were more orders overtaken in the early stage, and there was no big problem in overall production and sales in July, but the incremental space was limited compared with the previous period. Therefore, as far as July is concerned, the demand for sheet coil of construction machinery can still be maintained, but due to the weakening of new orders, it is expected that this part of the demand has limited room to rise.

Source: Shanghai Nonferrous net Machinery Industry Association

 

Automotive industry: since February, the automotive industry has continued to recover, and production and marketing have gradually returned to the normal level, driving the demand for cold-rolled and galvanized plates, thus indirectly driving the demand for hot-rolled coils. Among them, the sales data represented by heavy trucks and passenger cars are more optimistic. Although the heavy truck has dropped in a high position, its performance is still excellent compared with the same period last year. Passenger car sales also gradually returned to normal levels after the outbreak. According to SMM terminal survey feedback, the automotive industry is still in the process of gradual recovery, especially for commercial vehicles related to infrastructure projects, new orders are still preferred. Although the recovery of passenger vehicles is slower than that of commercial vehicles, the overall recovery momentum has been maintained. At the same time, it is learned from the terminal side of the steel plant that the car order maintained a steady upward trend in July, so it is expected that the demand for sheet metal at the automobile terminal in July is no doubt and still maintains a relatively stable growth.

Data source: Shanghai Nonferrous Network Automobile Industry Association

 

Home appliance industry: driven by the outbreak of the epidemic abroad and the surge in demand for food storage, the export market of refrigerators is better than domestic sales, production and sales recover faster than other household appliances, and the demand for cold plates continues to grow. At the same time, with the arrival of summer, the increasing demand of residents for air conditioners has led to the continuous growth of air conditioning sales, but also prompted it to increase the demand for cold-series plates and indirectly boost the demand for hot-rolled coils. At the same time, from the point of view of the completion of commercial housing, the gradual acceleration of delivery and the relevant national promotion policies, the home appliance industry is expected to maintain the momentum of steady growth in July, which also supports the demand for hot-rolled coil from the side.

 

Data source: national Bureau of Statistics Shanghai Nonferrous net Industry online

 

Plate terminal export: affected by the second outbreak of overseas epidemic, the export recovery of plate terminal is not optimistic. According to the SMM terminal survey, in addition to some household appliances exports and a very small number of construction machinery exports slightly recovered, driving a slight increase in plate indirect exports. The indirect export of plate driven by the rest of the terminal export is still in a steady downward trend. At the same time, combined with the current overseas epidemic situation, although the European economy has gradually recovered after the relief of the epidemic, the new cases in the United States, Brazil, India and other countries are still breaking through new highs. Therefore, it is expected that there will be no obvious improvement in direct and indirect exports of plate in the short term, and the demand for plate will be driven by relatively limited demand.

 

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