[summary of SMM Morning meeting] Nickel spot market gradually increases supply of 304stainless steel cold rolled is OK.

Published: Jul 6, 2020 10:00

Nickel price judgment: last week, the nickel price basically fluctuated in the early position range, and the fundamentals were weak but mostly known news, such as the increase in the supply of nickel pig iron and the pressure on stainless steel market shipments in the off-season, etc., as a whole, the short-term contradiction is not obvious; in the macro aspect, some overseas data are bright, and in the major links, we can see that overseas countries are still following the logic of consumer recovery, coupled with the fact that national policies support enterprises to have a certain effect, and the macro side is relative preference. Under the comprehensive action, the nickel price fluctuates in the range. Nickel prices are likely to fall back at a high level this week, focusing on whether long positions can hold on to a breakthrough. Shanghai Nickel 102000MUR 107,500 yuan / ton, Lunni 12650USD13300 / ton.

1. July 3rd SMM1 Electrolytic Nickel is quoted at 103900 RMB105100 / ton. Nickel rose sharply shortly after the opening of the morning market, fluctuating at a high of 104500 yuan / ton in the second period, and rose to a new high in nearly a month in the afternoon. Due to the sharp rise in prices and the approach of the weekend, buyers stopped to wait and see, and the trading performance was light today. Russo Nickel to Shanghai Nickel 2008 contract offer 500 to 400 yuan / ton, the discount range is firm, the attraction to the downstream is limited, so the trading volume is not good. The 2008 contract of Jinchuan Nickel to Shanghai Nickel rose 700 won 800 yuan / ton. Jinchuan Company's ex-factory price was 105000 yuan / tonne. Today, manufacturers have delivered nearly 100 tons in Shanghai. It is reported that due to the limited supply of goods in the market, traders are actively taking goods and have sold out in the morning. Jinchuan Nickel downstream procurement demand has also been suppressed. The price of nickel beans remains unchanged today, with a quotation of about 1400 yuan / ton for the Shanghai Nickel 2008 contract.

2. On July 3rd, the ex-factory price of SMM high nickel pig iron is 960 won 965 yuan per nickel point (including factory tax), which is the same as the average price of the previous trading day. It is 7.5 yuan / nickel point lower than before the festival. The mainstream transaction price of high nickel pig iron market continues to decline compared with that before the festival, and the inquiry price of steel mills continues to decline, which may approach 950 yuan / nickel point (including factory tax) next week, and the operating range next week is expected to be 940 house price 950 yuan / nickel point (including factory tax).

3. On July 3, some traders of stainless steel 304 cold rolling in Wuxi area adjusted slightly, and the overall range was still reported at 13300, 13600 yuan / ton, while the hot rolling quotation was stable at 12850, 12950 yuan / ton. According to traders, the cold rolling transaction is OK this week, there is not much cold rolling supply in the market, and the hot rolling performance is slightly weaker. Today, Castle Peak 304 cold and hot rolling announced the new price, which is the same as the previous price. The supply of hot rolled plates is 12800 yuan / ton in July and 12500 yuan / ton in narrow band in August. The price of cold rolling is 13100 yuan / ton for four feet and 13300 yuan / ton for five feet.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or to learn more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn
For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn
Related News
High-Grade NPI Smelter Profits Squeezed as Ore Prices Rise and Sales Prices Dip
23 hours ago
High-Grade NPI Smelter Profits Squeezed as Ore Prices Rise and Sales Prices Dip
Read More
High-Grade NPI Smelter Profits Squeezed as Ore Prices Rise and Sales Prices Dip
High-Grade NPI Smelter Profits Squeezed as Ore Prices Rise and Sales Prices Dip
[SMM Nickel Flash] Based on nickel ore prices from 25 days ago, smelter profits for high-grade NPI remained high this week. However, from the current raw material side, ore prices from both the Philippines and Indonesia increased, while auxiliary material prices saw a slight pullback, leading to an increase in the cash cost of producing high-grade NPI from spot ore. At the same time, high-grade NPI prices experienced some pullback, making it difficult for smelter profits to see sustained improvement.
23 hours ago
High-Grade NPI Prices Fall, Expected to Stabilize as Chinese New Year Approaches
23 hours ago
High-Grade NPI Prices Fall, Expected to Stabilize as Chinese New Year Approaches
Read More
High-Grade NPI Prices Fall, Expected to Stabilize as Chinese New Year Approaches
High-Grade NPI Prices Fall, Expected to Stabilize as Chinese New Year Approaches
[SMM Nickel Flash] This week, due to a sharp decline in futures triggering arbitrage selling, high-grade NPI prices fell significantly. However, after the selling activity subsided, upstream quotations and the market center gradually returned to normal levels, supported by cost factors. Looking ahead, as the Chinese New Year holiday approaches, market activity is expected to remain subdued, and high-grade NPI prices are projected to hover at highs with limited fluctuations.
23 hours ago
Nickel Prices Drop: SMM 10-12% High-Grade NPI Down 17.2 Yuan, Indonesia NPI FOB Index Falls 2.06 $/mtu
23 hours ago
Nickel Prices Drop: SMM 10-12% High-Grade NPI Down 17.2 Yuan, Indonesia NPI FOB Index Falls 2.06 $/mtu
Read More
Nickel Prices Drop: SMM 10-12% High-Grade NPI Down 17.2 Yuan, Indonesia NPI FOB Index Falls 2.06 $/mtu
Nickel Prices Drop: SMM 10-12% High-Grade NPI Down 17.2 Yuan, Indonesia NPI FOB Index Falls 2.06 $/mtu
[SMM Nickel Flash] The SMM average price of 10-12% high-grade NPI fell 17.2 yuan/mtu WoW to 1,035.8 yuan/mtu (ex-factory, tax included), while the Indonesia NPI FOB index average price dropped 2.06 $/mtu WoW to 131.2 $/mtu. At the beginning of the week, futures hit limit-down, and nickel prices fell sharply WoW, driving the emergence of arbitrage supplies sold at low prices, leading to a significant decline in high-grade NPI prices.
23 hours ago