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SMM spot Metal spot Trading Weekly Review (2020.06.29mi 2020.07.03)
Jul 3,2020 20:42CST
translation
Source:SMM
SMM spot Metal spot Trading Weekly Review (2020.06.29mi 2020.07.03)
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM, July 3:

The market continued to ferment large-scale global quantitative easing and the stimulus of low interest rates, accelerating the entry of countries into the process of economic recovery. PMI data of various countries performed better than expected during the week, non-farm data in the United States grew faster than expected, basic metals continued a strong pattern during the week, and continued to rise, with SMMI rising 1.97 percent. Among them, nickel first suppressed and then rose, leading a big rise on Friday, Lunni station above the Wansan pass, Shanghai nickel out of the weekly horizontal range shock, Friday single-day increase of 3%, spot rising water remained stable, SMMI.Ni week rose 2.7%. Aluminum maintained a steady rise, Lun aluminum station above 1600 US dollars / ton, Shanghai aluminum bulls led to effectively break through the Wansi mark, spot rising water is high and difficult, SMMI.Al rose 2.93% a week. The performance of copper and lead was the same. Lun copper broke through US $6000 and shot up US $6120 / ton, while Shanghai copper shot up 49500 yuan / ton. however, spot copper fell all the way to the vicinity of Pingshui due to high prices and skyrocketing inventories, weakening the strong performance of futures. SMMI.Cu rose 2.22% a week, Lun lead shot up US $1800 / ton, Shanghai lead target Wanwu pass, high decline, spot discount expansion, fear of high transaction difficulties, also show the characteristics of strong and weak period. SMMI.Pb rose 2.25% a week. Shanghai tin steadily higher target locked 140000 yuan first line, but the spot is difficult to keep firm, rising water gradually lower during the week, SMMI. SN week rose 0.54%. During the week, only zinc was weak, and it was difficult to keep up with other metals. The range of zinc in Shanghai fluctuated at 16800 yuan / ton, gaining momentum, spot rising water fell day by day, and it was difficult to improve market trading activity. SMMI.Zn fell 0.18% a week. Macro market sentiment will continue to be optimistic next week, focusing on the bullish sustainable performance of various metals and whether the strong and weak characteristics of metals can be reversed next week.

 

Copper: Lun Copper continued to show a step-by-step rise this week, with a marked rise in the center of gravity compared with the previous week, above the $6000 round mark, continued macro easing and fundamental supply-side disturbances all provided support for the upward price of copper. Under the stimulation of low interest rates and large-scale quantitative easing around the world, the economies of various countries have entered the process of restart and showed signs of a positive recovery. Non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 4.8 million in June, a record high, the unemployment rate fell to 11.1% month-on-month, and PMI data in Europe and the United States all showed a month-on-month rebound, strengthening market optimism about the economic outlook again. In addition, the British Prime Minister said he would support large-scale infrastructure investment, and Germany and France supported the EU's 750 billion euro economic recovery plan, giving investors confidence. Fundamentally, Codelco's smelter was suspended this week due to an epidemic, and the Chilean Copper Union also called for a 14-day suspension of operations at all copper mines, continuing to raise concerns about copper supply and good for copper prices. On Monday, copper opened at US $5931 / tonne. After briefly exploring the weekly low of US $5924.5 / tonne, it fluctuated upward along the 5-day moving average, easily breaking through the US $6000 mark. Copper prices rose above $6100 per tonne on Thursday to a peak of $6120 per tonne, spurred by US "small non-farm" data in June. Near the weekend, the bulls took profits, and the center of gravity fell back to $6050 / ton. So far, Lunbro has closed at $6056.5 a tonne, a weekly increase of 1.91 per cent. Lun copper has a 5-day moving average at the bottom, and the moving average is arranged in bulls. From a technical point of view, copper prices still have upward momentum. Follow-up attention will be paid to whether the bulls can continue to make efforts to support the upsurge of copper prices.

Shanghai Copper as a whole showed an upward trend this week, with the center of gravity of copper prices moving up to around 49000 yuan / ton. On the domestic side, China's official manufacturing PMI data rebounded month-on-month in June, exceeding expectations by 50.9, indicating that the domestic manufacturing industry is in the process of accelerated repair, and terminals such as air conditioners and automobile industries are also continuing to improve, confirming the positive logic of copper consumption in June. In addition, the central bank decided to cut re-lending and rediscount interest rates from July 1, indirectly to agriculture, rural areas, farmers and small and micro enterprises through the financial system, sending a signal of continued liquidity easing and providing momentum for copper prices. In foreign countries, the economic restart of various countries is still the main theme of the market, copper consumer demand is driven to recover, the superimposed supply side is constantly disturbed, and copper prices have risen sharply. At the beginning of the week, the main force of copper in Shanghai opened as high as 48050 yuan / ton, rising steadily under the continuous efforts of the bulls, breaking the 49000 yuan / ton mark in the middle of the week, fully making up for the gap before the Spring Festival. After that, the copper in Shanghai was arranged horizontally around 49300 yuan / ton, with a maximum of 49570 yuan / ton in the market. Affected by the increase in domestic social inventory and risk aversion before the weekend, long positions dragged back gains, falling below the 49000 yuan / ton mark to close at 48900 yuan / ton, a weekly increase of 2.17 percent, and positions increased by 8894 hands to 122000 hands. At present, the copper in Shanghai is negative, but it is still supported by the 5-day moving average, and 4 positive lines are recorded in the week, and the upstream channel of copper price has not been destroyed. Continue to pay attention to the economic repair at home and abroad and supply-side disturbances to see whether the bulls can continue to provide momentum for the rise in copper prices.

The price in the spot market this week showed a landslide, falling from 160 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to flat at the weekend, with a discount of 10 yuan / ton at one time. Copper prices rose sharply after returning to Shanghai after the festival, and under the background of limited funds at the end of the month, the downstream was afraid of heights and wait-and-see. During the week, a large number of imported copper flowed into the spot market, it is difficult for the market to quickly digest this part of imported copper, domestic inventory accumulation is obvious, copper prices have continued to rebound close to 49500 yuan / ton, the willingness of consignors to exchange cash at high prices is clearly enhanced, and there is a lack of interest in the market. Under the condition of ample supply, the seller can only accelerate the downward adjustment of the price, and the spot price drop rapidly in the wait-and-see period, falling to 10 yuan / ton to 40 yuan / ton on Thursday. Over the weekend, the market gave up the increase, once falling below 49000 yuan / ton, attracting low buyers, the supply of discounted goods on the market was quickly absorbed, increasing the price confidence for the holders, the price reduction space was limited, and the rising water performance steadily tended to rise above 30 yuan / ton.

 

Aluminum: Lun Aluminum opened at $1597.5 a tonne on Monday. Monday to Wednesday mostly into the air, Lun Aluminum trend with the rise of Shanghai Aluminum, below the 5-day moving average support is strong, the week's high touched 1630 US dollars / ton. On Thursday, the momentum of the bulls weakened, some bears entered high, and the daily K line closed at a long cross. On Friday, Lun Aluminum continued to give up its gains at the beginning of the week, and the bulls continued to reduce their positions. As of 08:24, Lun Aluminum closed at 1618 US dollars / ton, up 1.28%, the trading volume increased 693 to 54439 lots, and its position decreased 8473 to 820000 lots, mainly short positions. The weekly K line is temporarily closed on a medium positive line, and the weekly KDJ is on the third line upward. On the whole, the development of the overseas epidemic is unstable, disturbing the pace of economic recovery in Europe and the United States, and commodities are under pressure to a certain extent, but in the context of the strong trend of domestic Shanghai aluminum, Lun Aluminum will still be driven to a certain extent. it is expected that the support level of 1570 US dollars / ton under next week will be strong, and Lun aluminum will still be dominated by strong shocks, so it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the impact of changes in the Shanghai-Lun ratio and the release of overseas macro news on the trend of Lun aluminum.

This week is the first trading week after returning from Dragon Boat Festival holiday. The 2008 contract of Shanghai Aluminum Company opened at 13625 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and the bulls continued to increase their positions in recent months in the following three days, helping to break the 10,000 position, closing at 14030 yuan / ton on Wednesday. On Thursday, some bulls left the market at a high profit, the Japanese K line closed at a small negative line, and the bulls were slightly better in the long-short game on Friday. as of the day's close, Shanghai Aluminium closed at 14055 yuan / ton, up 450yuan / ton in the week, up 3.31%, mainly by bulls. The Zhou K line closed a big positive line, reaching a high level since the end of October last year. Overall, inventory declines are expected to narrow next week against the backdrop of seasonal weakening on the demand side, but low warehouse orders will still support prices, and there is no obvious short signal to hold down aluminum prices. It is expected that aluminum prices will still be dominated by strong shocks next week, and the spot-driven futures logic will continue. Although the cost end has risen steadily, the current electrolytic aluminum end is still at a high profit level, and the main factors affecting aluminum prices are still marginal changes at the demand end.

The spot transaction this week after the festival is obviously lower than that before the festival. The spot transaction price in Shanghai is between 14080 and 14410 yuan / ton, and the spot price in Wuxi is between 14090 and 14430 yuan / ton, the average weekly price is 340 yuan / ton higher than last week, the rising water is between 120 and 220 yuan / ton, and the spot price in Hangzhou is between 14120 and 14440 yuan / ton. This week, the tight situation of spot circulation has eased somewhat, and imported aluminum ingots are still gradually inflowing. A large family buys normally every day, the price is reasonable, and the shippers are active in shipping to them, but there is still a situation that the procurement plan is difficult to be completed. Middlemen are willing to receive goods, but comparatively speaking, there are more shippers than pickers, and there is a slight stalemate between traders and buyers and sellers because of the higher price of the cardholders. As aluminum prices rose for several days in a row this week, downstream fear of heights is obvious, purchasing enthusiasm is not high, near the weekend to receive goods slightly improved, but the purchase volume is still less than expected.

 

Lead: the high level of lead has fallen back this week, and the $1800 platform is under a lot of pressure. At the beginning of the week, Lun lead continued the upward trend of last week, reaching a high of 1807 US dollars / tonne. Later, due to its weak relative fundamentals and weak buying at high prices, Lunn lead fell back to near its 20-day moving average. During this period, it reached a low of 1758.5 US dollars per tonne. As of Friday, Lun lead was reported at 1774.5 US dollars per ton. Macroscopically, the global large-scale loose monetary policy, coupled with the passage of the 150 million infrastructure bill in the United States this week, the market remains relatively optimistic about the process of economic recovery in Europe and the United States, the market risk appetite is relatively high, commodities and risky assets rise as a whole, and the macro mood is relatively optimistic. in terms of fundamentals, Lun lead inventory continues to decline slightly, and in the short term, Lun lead is expected to remain strong and volatile. Lun lead will run at 1750 U.S. dollars / ton next week.

This week, Shanghai lead broke through the previous high platform and entered a new uplink cycle. At the beginning of the week, bullish main funds entered the market, leading Shanghai lead to exceed expectations, with a high of 14940 yuan / ton at one point. Later, with the expected increase in spot delivery positions in the industry, the bulls left the market, and the high level of lead in Shanghai fell back. As of Friday, Shanghai lead was reported at 14775 yuan / ton. Lead fundamentals, the smelter spot discount is gradually expanding, social inventory continues to accumulate, from the logic of traditional lead transactions, lead fundamentals are relatively weak, but due to low lead precipitation funds, serious financial control, short-term does not rule out the main funds continue to enter the market to drive up prices, so lead from a fundamental point of view, we are still more likely to fall back high, the main 2008 contract running at 14500Fel 14900 yuan / ton.

This week, the mainstream spot operation is 14650 RMB14950 per ton. According to SMM, some refineries in Hunan began to be overhauled this week, affecting the release of some output, but due to the high spot price and poor market trading, the refinery turned into a discount quotation for bulk orders. As of Friday, the average price discount for SMM1# lead in the market was 100 yuan / ton to Pingshui. Trade market, the market supply is abundant, although there is no follow-up import lead inflow, but it is still difficult to close a deal with imported lead. As of Friday, domestic lead ordinary brand lead has a contract discount of 2007 yuan / ton; recycled lead market, with higher prices, corporate profits have been repaired, as of Friday, the mainstream price of tax recycled lead is 250 SMM1# yuan / ton lead discount left the factory; On the consumer side, from the perspective of market feedback, consumption is still in the doldrums, and the willingness to purchase at high prices downstream is very cautious.

 

Zinc: narrow concussion of Lun Zinc this week. The number of new confirmed cases of the global epidemic continues to hit a record high, and 12 states in the United States have announced that the economy has been suspended and restarted. Coupled with the impact of trade frictions between Europe and the United States, the zinc price under pressure at the beginning of the week once fell to 2020 US dollars / ton, which was supported by the 20-day moving average below the technical surface. Prices stopped falling and rebounded and continued to rise to 2076 US dollars / tonne. After repeated attempts, the selling pressure above the price is relatively heavy, it is difficult to continue to break through, and the price increases positions and goes down. On Wednesday, the price stopped falling and rebounded to the first line of $2050 / ton. Later, the price dived again, falling as low as $2017 / ton. Below, it was supported by the middle rail of the Brin channel, and the price stopped falling and rebounded. ADP employment in the United States increased by 2.369 million in June, the largest increase in history. Markit manufacturing PMI in the United States continued to improve in June, and domestic manufacturing data also reached a new high so far this year, indicating that economic activity continued to recover, boosting price shocks and approaching the week's high, but the overall upward pressure was greater, and prices turned to a downward trend again, giving up their previous gains.

Zinc prices fluctuated this week. Affected by the intensification of the global epidemic during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday and trade frictions between Europe and the United States, zinc prices fell rapidly at the start of trading on Monday, with major contracts falling as low as $16580 / tonne, supported by the technical 10 moving average, and prices rebounded. The prosperity of the domestic manufacturing industry rose again, sitting on the line of prosperity and decline for four consecutive months, indicating that the overall recovery of China's economic operation continued to improve, and the main contract was boosted to 16900 yuan / ton at one time, but the demand downstream of the high price was poor. Recently, zinc concentrate processing fees have also been raised, part of the capital high layout, prices continue to pull up the lack of confidence, prices fell to 16640 / ton on Wednesday, giving up the previous increase. In the second half of the week, driven by the rise in crude oil and copper prices, the main contract of Shanghai zinc was waiting for an opportunity to rush up. The main contract rose to 16815 yuan / ton at one point in a month, but the high price funds took profits, and the price turned to a narrow volatility trend on Friday. As of Friday, the main contract closed at 16745 yuan / ton, up 0.03% from the previous week.

In the Shanghai market this week, the domestic water price for 07 is 100 yuan / ton, Shuangyan and Chihong are 120 yuan / ton for 07, and the import of SMC, KZ and YP is 40 / 80 yuan / ton for July. Zinc prices fell slightly this week, the market is dominated by shipments, and there is a slight purchase in the lower reaches, but the deterioration of orders in the off-season of consumption suppresses the enthusiasm of purchasing, mostly on-demand procurement, and the single trading of long traders remains normal. The spot quotation has gradually fallen back from rising water to about 90rel 100 yuan / ton to about 70rel 80 yuan / ton, and the overall transaction is flat.

This week, Ningbo Zinc 2007 contract water rose 80 yuan / ton-90 yuan / ton. This week, the price difference between Ningbo and Shanghai narrowed from 20 yuan / ton last Friday to 10 yuan / ton. Ningbo market supply circulation is relatively scarce this week, the market supply circulation is more abundant at the beginning of the week, the market transaction is relatively smooth, part of the downstream is not ready before the Dragon Boat Festival, the willingness to buy rebounded after the festival, traders bid up, the overall rising water is maintained at around 100 yuan / ton for the July contract. However, after entering the second half of the week, the willingness to buy in the lower reaches gradually fell, superimposed on the rising water in the Shanghai market, and the spot rising water in the Ningbo market followed. Overall, Tiefeng and a small amount of Kirin in the second half of the week were reported to have risen around 90 yuan / ton for the July contract and 80 yuan / ton for the July contract. The sources of goods such as Huize and Yunxi have not yet arrived. This week, Ningbo downstream enterprise order situation is still weak and slightly worse, large and medium-sized enterprises gradually reduce production, mostly to consume pre-inventory, the overall market climate is poor, this week's transaction is basically flat compared with last week.

The price of zinc in Guangdong market this week focused on a price increase of 20mur60 / ton for the Shanghai zinc 2008 contract, and the discount on the Guangdong market was 90 yuan / ton higher than that of the Shanghai market, which was 10 yuan higher than that of last Wednesday. This week, Guangdong spot than the 2008 contract water further narrowed, with the early part of the smelter overhaul to resume production, coupled with the smelter realization demand-driven, Guangdong market delivery volume continues to increase, market negotiable supply is relatively abundant, while downstream die-casting zinc alloy plant orders are still depressed, market demand is insufficient, in the case of overall oversupply, the holder shipping pressure, continue to reduce the spot rising water quotation for shipment; In the absence of downstream demand support, traders mainly received goods at low prices, exerting pressure on spot performance, but in the second half of the week, after the spot quotation dropped to 30 yuan / ton for 2008 contracts, the willingness of the holder to continue to reduce the price was limited, showing a slight stalemate between the supply and demand sides. Overall, in the context of weak downstream demand, spot rising water is difficult to be supported.

This week, the mainstream ordinary brand of Tianjin Zinc Co., Ltd. has a contract with Shanghai Zinc 2007 to increase water from 120 yuan to 150 yuan / ton, Zijin to 2007 contract from 140 yuan / ton to 180 yuan / ton, and the price of rising water in Tianjin stock market has dropped from 70 yuan / ton to 60 yuan / ton compared with Shanghai market. Zinc prices rebounded after exploring low at the beginning of this week, due to the arrival of a large number of goods in Tianjin market during the Dragon Boat Festival, superimposed some refineries and traders to clear inventory and sell goods in half a year, spot rising water fell lower than before the festival, among which the high-priced brand Zijin fell by a large margin to 140 Mustang 150 yuan / ton. In the middle of the week, due to the Zijin brand low-price clearance, there is no new arrival, traders bid shipments, of which the ordinary brand quoted to rise water 130mur150 yuan / ton, Zijin quoted to rise water 180 yuan / ton, but the overall transaction is general; near the weekend, zinc price volatility is weak, the trade market to maintain rising water quotation, downstream to maintain the need for weak procurement. On the whole, the transaction in the Tianjin market is general this week, among which the Zijin brand is better at the low price. At present, due to the deep drop in the rising water in Tianjin, there are no plans to transfer zinc ingots to the Tianjin market for the time being. It is expected that the Tianjin market will be dominated by mainstream brands in the short term. However, under the influence of the off-season, the willingness to receive goods downstream may remain weak, and it is difficult to improve in the short term.

 

Tin: this week, the Lunxi electronic disk as a whole shows a horizontal plate narrow vibration finishing trend. At the beginning of the week, Lunxi opened at US $13705 / tonne. After reaching a weekly low of US $16680 / tonne, the center of gravity of the shock moved up, reaching the highest point of the week of US $16945 / tonne. After reaching the peak, it was subject to pressure pullback, and the center of gravity continued to rise slowly, moving along the 5-day moving average as a whole. As of 1700 on Friday, the latest price of Lunshi tin was 13830 US dollars / tonne. The weekly level rose 30 US dollars / ton, or 0.18%, with a turnover of 782 hands, 16950 positions, a decrease of 401 hands. Lunxi showed a positive line this week, and the weekly performance remained stable. In terms of indicators, the weekly-level MACD index is still open upward, the K-line is located between the upper-middle rail of the Bollinger belt and the distance between the upper-middle rail remains stable; the daily-level MACD index is still a dead cross before the Dragon Boat Festival, and the K-line is close to the middle rail of the Bollinger belt. Lunshi tin is expected to maintain horizontal volatility in the near future, which is expected to be between US $16600 and US $17,000 per ton.

This week Shanghai tin 2009 contracts showed an overall upward trend of concussion. At the beginning of the week, tin opened at 137920 yuan / ton in Shanghai. At the beginning of the week, weak demand in the lower reaches of the week pulled down spot prices. Futures prices fell somewhat, reaching the lowest point of 136680 yuan / ton in the week, and then bottomed out. Bulls entered the market, giving up the decline and rising at the beginning of the week. The horizontal market fluctuated in the middle of the week, and its bulls continued to enter the market on Friday from the night market, reaching a weekly high of 140240 yuan / ton in the morning. After briefly breaking the pressure level of 140000 yuan / ton, it fell back to close at 139790 yuan / ton. The weekly level rose 1700 yuan / ton, or 1.23%, with 116000 hands traded and 29161 positions, an increase of 25521 hands. During the week, the main force of tin in Shanghai is positive, the physical part is above all weekly lines, and the lower shadow line is supported by the 5-week moving average. In terms of indicators, the opening of weekly MACD indicators is still upward, while that of daily MACD indicators is downward, but there is a trend that the two lines intersect and form a golden fork. The daily and weekly K lines are close to the upper track of the Bollinger belt. By today's close, Shanghai tin returned to the high level of the platform before the return year, because the gap of the decline in the epidemic has been basically made up, and the downside space is limited in the short term. Bulls continue to enter the market today, considering its position cost, it is expected that the upper pressure will be near the year-ago high of 140500 yuan / ton in the short term.

The spot price of Shanghai and tin as a whole showed a fluctuating upward trend this week. Affected by weak demand at the beginning of the week, the uplink was weak, downstream transactions warmed up, and a small amount of inventory. Then the average price rebounded to around 139250 yuan / ton following the futures, and in the middle of the week, the horizontal plate fluctuated, the center of gravity did not deviate greatly, and the spot price remained stable. Because the price is at a high level, the transaction atmosphere in the spot market is weak, and the willingness to receive goods downstream is general. Purchase on demand. To Friday, prices rebounded, the average price rose to 140250 yuan / ton, downstream enterprises are more willing to receive goods, the market turnover is light. Overall, the trading atmosphere in the one-week tin spot market in Shanghai is weak. The price quoted on Friday is 138000Lue 141,500 yuan / ton, with an average price of 140250 yuan / ton, up 750 yuan / ton from last Wednesday's price. In terms of liter discount, due to the continuous rise in tin prices superimposed by downstream fear of high demand, the overall liter discount this week has dropped significantly compared with last week, Yunxi has dropped from 2500mur3000 yuan / ton to 1000mur1500 yuan / ton, ordinary cloud word from 1500 yuan / ton to 1000 yuan / ton, small brand from 500 yuan / ton to near level water.

 

Nickel: Lunni recorded five Lianyang this week, increasing day by day. After opening at $12685 a tonne at the beginning of the week, it fluctuated upwards, rising above its 40-day moving average of $12800 a tonne on Tuesday, giving up gains under selling pressure on Wednesday and falling to a weekly low of $12565 a tonne. However, with the sharp increase in ADP employment in the United States, the unexpected drop in EIA crude oil stocks led to a rapid rise in Rennickel, which returned to around 12860 US dollars / ton that night. After that, the market continued to rise, boosted by the lower-than-expected US unemployment rate and the recovery of non-farm payrolls. On Friday, Lun Nickel followed Shanghai Nickel, reaching an intraday high of US $13130 / ton, the highest level since Feb. 18. As of July 3, 1915, Lunni temporarily closed at US $13100 / ton, a weekly increase of 3.43% to close at US $435 / ton. Although Lunni has reached a recent high, we need to pay attention to the upward breakthrough strength of Shanghai Nickel in the inner market, if we cannot continue to explore, or there will be the release of callback demand. It is expected to run between US $12650 and US $13,300 per ton next week.

This week, Shanghai Nickel completed the monthly change to 2010 contract on Friday. Last Wednesday night trading, Shanghai Nickel still fluctuated within a narrow range of 101700 yuan / ton, but after returning from the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the game began. Monday, it opened from the 40-day moving average of 102200 yuan / ton, and soon quickly dived to 100530 US dollars / ton to test low support. Shanghai Nickel stopped falling and returned to a shock around 102200 yuan / ton. In the following three trading days, Shanghai Nickel was weak and fluctuated between the 20 / 40 daily moving average, with a pressure of 102800 yuan / ton. On Friday, Shanghai Nickel, which has been continuously weakening, was favored by funds to rise sharply, and the main force of Shanghai Nickel also took advantage of the opportunity to complete the change of month, of which the Shanghai Nickel 2008 contract reached as high as 105460 yuan / ton, closing at 105240 yuan / ton, and there were still 78671 positions; while the Shanghai Nickel 2010 main contract reached as high as 105970 yuan / ton, closing at 105840 yuan / ton, with a position of 94053 hands. Although there is no obvious improvement in the fundamentals of the nickel market, at present, the main force of the Shanghai nickel bulls is still present, and the superposition of various technical indicators is on the strong side. If the jump gap of 106000 yuan / ton can be effectively repaired, it may break through a new operating space. It is estimated that the operating range next week will be 102000 million 107,500 yuan / ton.

The weekly average price of SMM1 Electrolytic Nickel is 102590 yuan / ton this week, which is stable between 100,300Mel and 1003700 in the first four trading days, but the spot price of nickel rose sharply on Friday, so the spot price rose as a result. The premium has not changed much during the week, and the Russo Nickel discount has remained stable around 2008 yuan / ton for the Shanghai Nickel contract within the week. Due to the reduction of the low-cost supply of first-hand imports, the room for moving goods in the market is limited, so the Russo Nickel discount has not been adjusted with the rise or fall of the stock price in the period. In terms of Jinchuan Nickel, the rising water range this week rose 700mur900 yuan / ton to the Shanghai Nickel 2008 contract, which was larger than that before the Dragon Boat Festival, mainly due to the fact that long-term Association traders picked up goods in Gansu one after another after the holidays, while the supply of goods in circulation in Shanghai was gradually tight. According to traders, in terms of trading volume, Jinchuan Nickel is also slightly better than Russian Nickel. Although downstream users still take goods on demand, traders' willingness to replenish inventory has increased after the supply of goods has been reduced. It is expected that the Russian nickel discount will remain stable at 500 yuan / ton next week, waiting for the hedging plate to move to the warehouse before adjustment, while Jinchuan nickel will have a certain downward adjustment space with the relief of supply pressure, which is expected to be around 600 RMB800 / ton.

 

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