[SMM Analysis] May's export volume of silicon metal reached the lowest level in nearly eight years.

SMM7 March 3: customs data show that the export volume of silicon metal in May 2020 was 31000 tons, down 36.2 percent from the previous month and 53.6 percent from the same period last year. It became the lowest monthly export volume since February 2012 (29000 tons of exports).

In February, when the domestic epidemic was at its worst, many foreign buyers prepared goods in a panic, and then production was reduced or stopped due to the epidemic, and the time for inventory digestion was prolonged. Compared with the slow recovery of China's overseas consumption, especially in May, many overseas downstream were in a state of shutdown, and construction did not increase gradually until June, and procurement gradually resumed after inventory was digested.

However, it should be noted that in early July, only some Asian countries, such as Japan and South Korea, resumed work downstream, and the starting load and procurement quantity were lower than those before the epidemic, while procurement in the lower reaches of Europe, the Middle East, and other regions had not yet resumed. Some orders for the second quarter and first half of the year were postponed to the second half of this year, while a new round of procurement was suspended.

In addition to the impact of the epidemic, the increase in domestic low-cost polysilicon production capacity has led to the suspension of production and maintenance by large foreign factories, which has also led to a partial reduction in the export volume of metal silicon.

Judging from the orders received by traders, the export volume of silicon metal from June to August will increase significantly compared with May, but taking into account factors such as foreign downstream orders and the suspension of production at high temperatures in summer, the export market will take a long time to recover, and the export volume is expected to be about 50,000 tons in June.

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