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Review on spot Trading Day of SMM basic Metals on July 3rd
Jul 3,2020 19:23CST
Review on spot Trading Day of SMM basic Metals on July 3rd
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

Copper: today Apanlon Copper opens at US $6082 / ton. Shanghai copper opened, a large number of short sellers into the market, Lun copper quickly fell to around $6032 / ton, and then copper prices rebounded to $6045 / ton position shock adjustment. In the afternoon, Lun copper tried to push up to $6060, but ran out of momentum and fell back again. After entering the European trading session, Lun Copper hit an intraday low of 6017 US dollars / ton, and the bulls increased their positions by about 25 US dollars, hindered by the first line of 6042 US dollars / ton. Lun Copper closed at 6028 US dollars per ton, down 65.50 US dollars per ton, or 1.09 per cent, as of 17PUR 00. The unemployment rate in the United States was 11.1% in June, down 2.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the number of initial jobless claims in the week ended June 27 was lower than the previous value. However, affected by the news of new crown infection cases in the United States, the sustainability of the improvement in employment data is in doubt. Near the weekend, during the US Independence Day holiday, investors' risk aversion improved, and bulls left the market dragging down the copper price correction. At present, Lun copper negative, KDJ opening downward, but the bottom is still supported by the 5-day moving average. In the evening, we will pay attention to whether the bulls can make further efforts to push Lun Copper up again.

Today, the main force of copper in Shanghai opened at 49310 yuan / ton in the morning, and after the opening, the center of gravity of copper price stabilized at 49320 yuan / ton, and then short positions pulled copper prices up briefly, exploring a daily high of 49390 yuan / ton. At this time, the bulls gradually reduced their positions and left the market, and the market continued to decline, falling all the way to the lowest point of the day, 48840 yuan / ton. In the early afternoon, the price of copper rebounded to close at 49060 yuan / ton. Copper prices fluctuated upwards in the afternoon, leaving the market around 49140 yuan / ton. The market fell again, and finally closed at 48900 yuan, down 350yuan / ton, down 0.71%. Intra-day 08 contract reduced positions by 6450 to 122000, mainly for long positions; trading volume changed little; Shanghai Copper 07 contract reduced positions by 5675 to 38000, mainly for long positions. Trading volume decreased by 4000 to 25000 lots. The weekly increase of money supply M1 and M2 announced in the United States today is limited, the effect of economic stimulus measures is gradually dissipating, the pace of US economic recovery is slowing, the downward pressure is increasing, and the market macro sentiment is cautious, which forms a certain resistance to the upward price of copper. From a fundamental point of view, the impact of the South American epidemic on Chilean copper production has not been obvious. The Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco) showed that Chilean copper production increased by 3.7% from January to May 2020, easing the pessimistic mood of tight supply the day before yesterday. Social inventories rose 37300 tons month-on-month to 199300 tons on Wednesday, the first increase in recent months, leading bulls to cut positions and driving copper prices down, according to a survey by SMM. Today, Shanghai copper overcast, MACD red column narrowed, but below there is still a 5-day moving average to support the bottom, copper prices upward pattern has not been destroyed. Wait for the outer disk guidelines in the evening to test whether the bulls can continue to make efforts to help copper prices gain momentum again.

Today, the spot price of electrolytic copper in Shanghai is 30 yuan / ton for the current month's contract, the transaction price of copper is 49050 yuan / ton ~ 49390 yuan / ton, and the transaction price of copper is 49060 yuan / ton ~ 49400 yuan / ton. The high level of copper in Shanghai in early trading was blocked at 49400 yuan / ton first-line consolidation. The morning spot market continued yesterday's low quotation level ~ litre 20 yuan / ton. after the low-price supply was quickly taken away, it increased the holder's confidence in holding the price, and the holder's quotation was raised to 10 ~ 30 yuan / ton, but the transaction response was not positive enough, and the quotation was deadlocked. Pingshui copper water rose 10 yuan / ton, good copper water 20 yuan / ton, it is difficult to lower the price, and it is difficult to raise again. Today, good copper and water copper are concentrated in the range of 20 yuan / ton from Pingshui to litre water, and the downstream just needs to buy, the supply of wet copper is increased, and there is a big difference between brands, and the quotation is slightly lowered to 50 yuan / ton to 30 yuan / ton. some poor brands of wet copper stickers can be as large as 70 yuan / ton or more. After the second trading session, the market plummeted by about 300 yuan / ton, the market inquiry atmosphere was active, there was a willingness to buy at a low price, and the performance of the holder was more persistent, trying to hold up the rising water level. therefore, the outflow of goods in circulation in the market today is less than that of yesterday, which makes it difficult to lower the price today, and the performance of rising water is stable for the time being. In the afternoon, the market stabilized and rebounded in the range of 49050 won / t, and the enthusiasm of low-level buying was greatly increased. The holder further strengthened and raised the quotation for rising water. The price of leveling copper rose from 20 yuan / ton to 40 yuan / ton, while the price of good copper rose to 40 yuan / ton, and the transaction price was 49070 yuan / ton.

Aluminum: Lun Aluminum opened at US $1623.5 / ton in the morning. In the Asian session, Lun Aluminum rose slightly to an intraday high of 1626 yuan / ton and fell to 1617.5 yuan / ton before noon, and then rebounded slightly and fluctuated around US $1619 / ton. As of 15: 00, aluminum quoted at 1621 yuan / ton. In the European session, Lomalco fell to an intraday low of $1617 / tonne after a pullback to $1618.5 / tonne as of 17: 11. On the whole, Geneva aluminum still maintains a high concussion trend, with an amplitude of about US $6, combined with the negative impact of the current foreign epidemic factors, the upside space is limited. The main 2008 contract of Shanghai Aluminum opened at 14000 yuan / ton in the morning, and the bulls strongly entered the market to lift the aluminum price to a high of 14035 yuan / ton in the afternoon, and then some bulls made a profit and left the market, and the aluminum price showed a downward trend. At about 10:55 in the afternoon, bears entered more than 200 hands, aluminum prices gave up the opening increase fell to an intraday low of 13955 yuan / ton, and then some bears made profits, bulls regained the initiative of the market, and Shanghai aluminum prices reversed the downward trend. The bulls continued to enter the market in the afternoon, and aluminum prices rose strongly. 30 minutes before the close, with some bears expelling from the market, Shanghai aluminum prices reached an intra-day high of 14075 yuan / ton, while the latter bulls made a profit, and aluminum prices closed at 14055 yuan / ton in a day. The daily position increased by 2317 to 168189, while the Shanghai Aluminum Index decreased its position by 675 to 439871. Electrolytic aluminum inventory continues to decline, near the weekend, electrolytic aluminum shipments are slightly better than the previous two days, the tight supply situation slightly alleviated, some bulls regained confidence, but the overall cautious mood is still there. It is expected that the night is still dominated by strong shocks, and the uplink space is relatively limited.

Aluminum high concussion before noon. The spot price in Shanghai is between 14390 and 14410 yuan / ton, while the price in Wuxi is between 14410 and 14430 yuan / ton, which is basically the same as yesterday's price. The rising discount is between 120 and 140 yuan / ton. Today, a large family receives the goods normally, the quotation is reasonable, the shippers are active, the middlemen are slightly less willing to receive the goods, the goods in Shanghai are not as popular as the tin-free goods, and the trading between the two sides is general. Due to the demand for inventory downstream near the weekend, the enthusiasm of receiving goods today is significantly higher than that of the previous two days, but due to the high spot price, the purchase volume is still lower than expected. On the whole, the deal in East China is OK today. In the afternoon, the price of the consignor is around 14410 yuan / ton, and the price is around 120 yuan / ton. The market is light and there is almost no deal.

Lead: within a day, lead is opened at US $1774.5 / ton. During the Asian session, there was little trading. After hitting a high of 1777.5 US dollars / tonne, Lun lead began to give up its gains on the 5-day moving average, falling below the daily moving average and continuing to fluctuate downwards along the daily moving average. In the afternoon, affected by the sharp fluctuations in the dollar index, Lun lead fluctuated sharply along the daily moving average, quickly climbed 1775 US dollars, then turned around and fell to the intraday low of 1763.5, fluctuating around the width of the daily moving average. As of 1715, Lun lead was last reported at 1772 US dollars per ton, down 0.50 US dollars per ton, or 0.03 per cent. Lun lead has closed four consecutive negative, today Lun lead entity fell below the 10-day moving average, supported by the 20-day moving average of 1665.4 US dollars / ton, as tomorrow is the Independence Day of the United States, the turnover is light, it is expected that it is difficult to improve night trading, and the plate may continue to be sorted out between the 10-20 moving average.

During the day, the main 2008 contract of Shanghai lead opened at 14730 yuan / tonne. At the beginning of the session, Shanghai lead briefly boosted to an intraday high of 14770 yuan / ton. Shanghai lead opened the road of correction, accelerated away from the daily moving average line after falling below the daily moving average line, and stopped falling after reaching an intraday low of 14615 yuan / ton in the afternoon. The basic metals rose generally in the afternoon, and the low bulls in Shanghai lead entered the market and rebounded somewhat, but stopped at the first line of the daily average line of 14700 yuan. Shanghai lead gave up its gains again in late trading, closing at 14650 yuan / ton, down 140 yuan / ton, or 0.95%. Its position increased by 250 to 26567 lots, and trading volume increased by 2024 to 24663 lots. The bulls left cautiously during the day, and the bears took advantage of the short-term test. Shanghai lead opened high and walked low today, falling below the 5-day moving average, pointing directly to the 10-day moving average, and the KDJ index opened downward, paying attention to the seesaw performance of the multi-empty force in the night market. The disk may be oscillated within the range of the 5-10 moving average.

The price of Mulun lead in Shanghai market is 14790 Mel 14800 yuan / ton, and the discount for Shanghai lead 2007 contract is 60mur50 yuan / ton; in the south of Jiangsu and Zhejiang market, Jiang copper lead is 14800 Mel 14810 yuan / ton, and the discount to Shanghai lead 2007 contract is 50 Mel 40 yuan / ton to level water. Lead concussion fell, the discount quoted by the holder has not changed much for the time being, while the recycled lead has maintained a deep discount, the lower reaches tend to be low-priced sources of goods, and trading in the trade market has not improved.

South China lead in Guangdong market is 14775 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead is 25 yuan / ton, Jinli and Wanyang in Henan Province is 14650 Mel 14700 yuan / ton, and the average price of SMM1# lead is 50 Mel / ton (trader). Minshan, Henan Province is 14650 yuan / ton, and the average lead price of SMM1# is 100 yuan / ton. Hunan Shuikoushan 14750 yuan / ton, flat water quotation for SMM1# lead price (trader); Jiang Copper 14800 yuan / ton, 50 yuan / ton for SMM1# lead price. Jinde 14700 yuan / ton, 50 yuan discount to SMM1# lead price. Yunnan small factory 14350 14400 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 350 million 400 yuan / ton. Lead prices rose sluggishly, turning to a pullback, while some refineries shipped at positive prices, individual prices were raised, and downstream purchases were made on demand, and the overall market trading was still disturbed by recycled lead.

Zinc: zinc in Geneva opened at US $2044 / tonne, with low market activity at the beginning of the session, with a narrow range around the daily moving average of US $2045 / tonne, and its center of gravity sank slightly to US $2038 / tonne in the afternoon. Affected by the trend of the US index, Lunzin recorded an inverted V-shaped high of US $2050.5 / tonne, followed by an accelerated decline to an intraday low of US $2023.5 / tonne, and then slightly repaired and operated around US $2030 / tonne. Lun Zinc closed down 2027 US dollars / ton, or 17 US dollars / ton, or 0.83 per cent, as of 16PUR 37. Lunzhiyin break through the 20-day moving average support, short moving average turned downward, the current overseas epidemic on consumption is more obvious, the marginal difference of consumption drag, it may be difficult to have a strong performance at night, pay attention to the macro news guidance.

During the day, the main 2008 contract of Shanghai zinc opened at 16745 yuan / ton, and there was a long-short game stalemate in early trading. The zinc period fluctuated in a narrow range around the daily average line of 16710 yuan / ton, and the amplitude gradually narrowed. In the afternoon, along with the empty entry, the zinc contract rapidly rose by 16780 yuan / ton, some funds stopped earnings and left the market, and the zinc market fell at the end of the period. The final closing price was up 16745 yuan / ton, up 55 yuan / ton, or 0.33%. The trading volume increased by 22535 to 111000 hands. The position decreased by 1327 hands to 86314 hands. Zinc negative period, macro optimism still limit the decline in zinc, but the fundamentals of weak spot transactions, social inventory to maintain a high level of bound zinc increases, it is expected that short-term zinc is difficult to change the range shock pattern.

The mainstream transaction of zinc in Shanghai was 16800 Mel 16860 yuan / ton, Shuangyan and Chihong 16870 yuan / ton, Shuangyan and Chihong reported water 75 won 80 yuan / ton in July, Shuangyan and Chihong reported water 80 RMB90 / ton in July, and Shuangyan and Chihong traded 16720 RMB16780 / ton. The Shanghai Zinc 2007 contract fluctuated within a narrow range, and the morning market closed at 16750 yuan / ton. Smelter normal shipments, traders are mainly shipments, the morning market quotation remained stable at about 80 yuan / ton, weak transaction price was lowered to about 75 yuan / ton, some understated to about 70 yuan / ton, but the transaction did not improve, the overall transaction is still weak, downstream to maintain on-demand procurement, Shuangyan, Chihong, import quotation is about 10 yuan / ton lower than yesterday, the overall transaction is slightly worse than yesterday.

The mainstream transaction of Ningbo Gao was 16810 Mel 16910 yuan / ton, and the price difference between Ningbo and Shanghai ordinary brands was maintained around 10 yuan / ton yesterday, while the contract water of ordinary brands for ordinary brands in Ningbo was around 2007 yuan / ton. The price difference between Ningbo and Shanghai ordinary brands was maintained around 10 yuan / ton. Today's Ningbo market basically maintained yesterday's market quotation. In the first period of the morning, Tiefeng Bao rose around 90 yuan / ton for the July contract, the West Mining News raised 80 yuan / ton for the July contract, and a small amount of Kirin continued to hold down the price. the pre-sale report is up 90 yuan / ton for the July contract. Entering the second period of time, the rising water of the market is basically maintained at about 80,000,000 yuan / ton for the contract in July. Overall, Ningbo market supply slightly tightened, mainly due to weak consumption, some refinery delivery direction has shifted, today's downstream enterprises slightly for weekend replenishment, but the overall trading is still light.

The mainstream transaction of zinc in Guangdong Province was 16700 won 16770 yuan per ton, and the quotation was concentrated on the price increase of 10 million yuan per ton in the 2008 contract for Shanghai zinc. The discount on the Guangdong market was 90 yuan per ton lower than that of the previous trading day, which was 20 yuan lower than that of the previous trading day. In the first trading session, futures prices fluctuated in a narrow range, the price center of gravity moved upward as a whole, and there was insufficient willingness to purchase downstream. This week, the market arrival increased, the pressure of shipments from the holders was greater, the spot rising water showed a low level, and the transaction between market traders was mainly done. Kirin, Mengzi, Huize and Danxia quoted prices for the Shanghai zinc contract in August, which rose 20 won 40 yuan / ton, and Tiefeng rose 1030 yuan / ton. In the second trading session, traders mainly buy at low prices, but the price is too low, the willingness to ship goods decreases, the supply and demand sides show a slight stalemate, and the overall market transaction is general. Kirin, Mengzi, Lan Zinc quoted for the Shanghai zinc August contract rose 25 murals 30 yuan / ton. The mainstream transactions of Kirin, Huize, Mengzi, Tiefeng and Feilong were 16700 Mel 16770 yuan / ton.

The mainstream trading of zinc ingots in Tianjin market was 16880 RMB16920 / ton, Zijin was traded at 16920 MUE 16950 yuan / ton, Huludao was quoted at 18190 yuan / ton, Zinc was generally quoted around RMB 140,150 / ton for 2007 contract, Zijin was quoted around RMB180 / ton for July contract, and the Tianjin stock market remained around 60 yuan / ton higher than Shanghai stock market. Today, Shanghai zinc remains volatile, the spot market maintains a rising discount price, and the price is relatively uniform. The ordinary brand Bering News quoted a rise of 140 yuan per ton for the 07 contract, and Hongyi quoted a rise of 150 yuan per ton for the 07 contract. Chi Hong quoted a rise of 140 yuan per ton for the 07 contract, and the high-priced brand Zijin offered 180 yuan per ton for the July contract, while Baiyin quoted 150 yuan per ton for the 07 contract. Yunxi Daily quoted a rise of 70 yuan per ton for the 07 contract, Xikuang (delivered to) quoted a rise of 60 million yuan per ton for the 07 contract, KZ/YP quoted a rise of 80 yuan per ton for the 07 contract, and Harbin Zinc (including the depot) quoted a rise of 50 yuan per ton for the 07 contract. Zinc prices remain volatile today, Zijin brand will be dominated by long orders in the short term, overall shipments in the market have decreased, and traders have maintained discounted quotations; downstream, the downstream still needs weak procurement, and the overall willingness to receive goods is mediocre. On the whole, today's turnover is light. Zinc ingots were traded around 16760 RMB16790 per ton.

Tin: Lunxi electronic disk opened at US $16875 / tonne today. Morning trading was light, rising slightly to US $16900 / tonne, followed by little trading. After falling to US $16815 / tonne at the end of the Asian session, it rebounded somewhat. As of 1615, the latest price of Lunxi was US $16825 / tonne, which was negative, the physical part was above all moving averages, and the lower support level is expected to be around US $13750 / tonne.

Shanghai tin main 2009 contract opened at 138300 yuan / ton last night, the night market closed more than the impact of entry, shock uplink, late night trading slightly higher. It opened at 139490 yuan / ton in the morning, and the bulls continued to enter the market at night. The tin price in Shanghai futures fluctuated and rose. In the morning midday, it hit the intraday high of 140240 yuan / ton, breaking the pressure level of 140000 yuan / ton, and then reached the peak pullback to near the morning opening price. Then a small amount of bulls entered the market. Shanghai tin prices rose, closing at 139790 yuan / ton, up 1440 yuan / ton, or 1.04%. Trading volume was 33775, positions were 29161, and increased by 4234. The physical part is located near the 5-day moving average, and the lower shadow line is supported by the 10-day moving average. Today, the tin price in Shanghai is close to the high of the platform before the year, basically making up for the decline after the year, and the downward space is expected to be limited in the short term, and the upper pressure is expected to be near the high of 140500 yuan / ton of the platform before the year.

Spot market, yesterday quoted price 139000 murmur141500 yuan / ton. Shanghai tin trading continued after the opening night, 08 contract briefly broke through the 140000 yuan / ton pressure line, the spot price followed the rise, the average net price rose 1000 yuan / ton. Prices have been in a high position in recent days, superimposed today, the willingness to receive goods downstream is weaker, and the trading atmosphere in the Shanghai tin spot market is cold. In terms of discount, Yunxi rose about 1500 yuan / ton for Shanghai tin 2008 contract, about 1000 yuan / ton for ordinary Yunzi, and about flat water for small brands.

Nickel: the Lunni sub-market opened at 12915 US dollars / ton today. After a brief shock, it followed the Shanghai nickel rally and broke through to 13060 US dollars / ton. After breaking above 13060 US dollars / ton, the center of gravity fell back to 13000 US dollars / ton to consolidate. In the afternoon, Lunni followed Shanghai Nickel again, rising continuously to US $13110 / ton from the Wansan pass, reaching the highest point in nearly a month. Although Lunni gave up some of its gains at the end of the Asian session, the PMI of the service sector in the euro zone was better than expected, making Lunni's center of gravity still high at the US $13090 / tonne line. As of 17:46, Lun Nickel temporarily closed at US $13085 / ton, up US $160 / ton, or 1.24%. As the United States is about to enter the Independence Day holiday, pay attention to the changes in the trend of US crude oil and US index in the evening, and test whether Lenny can continue to explore new highs.

Today, the main force of Shanghai Nickel completed the monthly change to 2010 contracts. Shanghai Nickel 2010 contract opened at 103580 yuan / ton and fluctuated around 103700 yuan / ton after opening. At around 9:45, the Caixin service industry PMI, comprehensive PMI and comprehensive PMI announced in China in June were higher than expected. After the bullish sentiment in the market was boosted, the gradual increase of positions helped the nickel price quickly reach 105350 yuan / ton, and then consolidated around the first line of 10500 yuan / ton. Open in the afternoon, bulls push up sentiment unabated, still continue to increase positions, so that Shanghai Nickel continues to rise steadily, until the end of the day did not leave a large number of funds. In the end, Shanghai Nickel closed at 105840 yuan / ton, up 3330 yuan / ton, or 3.25%. Shanghai Nickel 2010's main contract turnover was 529804 lots, and its position increased by 29899 lots to 94053 lots, while 2008 contract positions also increased by 6709 lots to 78671 lots in recent months. The optimism of recent macro data has led to an increase in market risk appetite. Shanghai Nickel, which has a weak trend during the week, rose sharply in favor of capital today, while other base metals gave up their gains during the week. At present, under the condition that the fundamentals of Shanghai Nickel have not been improved, whether it can break the shock pattern of the past three months, we still need to pay attention to whether the main force of Shanghai Nickel can effectively repair the 106000 yuan / ton jump pressure level in the near future. Pay attention to the changes in the main positions of Shanghai Nickel in the evening, and be cautious about the price fluctuations brought about by the risk aversion of funds over the weekend.

Today, SMM1 Electrolytic Nickel is quoted at 103900 RMB105100 per ton. Nickel rose sharply shortly after the opening of the morning market, fluctuating at a high of 104500 yuan / ton in the second period, and rose to a new high in nearly a month in the afternoon. Due to the sharp rise in prices and the approach of the weekend, buyers stopped to wait and see, and the trading performance was light today. Russo Nickel to Shanghai Nickel 2008 contract offer 500 to 400 yuan / ton, the discount range is firm, the attraction to the downstream is limited, so the trading volume is not good. The 2008 contract of Jinchuan Nickel to Shanghai Nickel rose 700 won 800 yuan / ton. Jinchuan Company's ex-factory price was 105000 yuan / tonne. Today, manufacturers have delivered nearly 100 tons in Shanghai. It is reported that due to the limited supply of goods in the market, traders are actively taking goods and have sold out in the morning. Jinchuan Nickel downstream procurement demand has also been suppressed. The price of nickel beans remains unchanged today, with a quotation of about 1400 yuan / ton for the Shanghai Nickel 2008 contract.


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