SMM7 March 2: I. Macroeconomic policy changes:
1. On Wednesday, 22: 00, the US ISM manufacturing PMI index for June was significantly better than expected and the previous value, back to the line of rise and fall. Specific data show that the US ISM manufacturing PMI recorded 52.60 in June, with an expected value of 49.70 and a previous value of 43.10, respectively.
2. The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its June monetary policy meeting:
According to the minutes of the meeting, officials believe that the current monetary policy position is still appropriate, but the Fed should strengthen to provide the market with forward-looking guidance on the future policy direction.
Most participants said the committee should convey forward-looking guidance on the path of the federal funds rate in a clearer form and provide a clearer message on purchases of Treasuries and institutional mortgage-backed securities. Officials also discussed the impact of asset purchases, pointing out that constraints in the current environment make purchases less effective than those made after the 2008 financial crisis.
It was also noted that there was a need for a highly loose monetary policy over a period of time and that its conditions should be clearly stated. It is hoped that future policy actions will be linked to inflation, while only a few officials say they prefer to be guided by unemployment. At the meeting, officials discussed the pros and cons of controlling the Treasury yield curve, agreed that more analysis was needed, and there were still many questions about whether to control the bond yield curve.
The minutes also show that officials forecast a median GDP contraction of 6.5 per cent in 2020, a growth of 5 per cent in 2021 and 3.5 per cent in 2022. Officials believe that there is still great uncertainty and great risks in the economic outlook. Officials point out that the financial support provided by Congress to families, businesses and state and local governments may not be enough.
Two. Market performance:
The price of gold fell moderately in the previous session, with a high of $1789 / oz and a low of $1759 / oz to close at $1770 / oz.
TD gold rose moderately in the previous session, closing at 400.70 yuan / kg, up 3.99 yuan.
In the previous session, TD silver rose moderately, closing at 4395 yuan / kg, up 119yuan.
Three. Position analysis:
Gold and silver CFTC non-commercial net long positions are in the middle and high level, and the risk of long positions is gradually accumulating.
Fourth, technical analysis:
On the previous trading day, the London gold daily line closed with a Zhongyin line, the highest price broke through the previous session's highest price, the closing price closed below MA5, MA5 went up, MA60 continued to extend upward, and the RSI index was in the normal range. It has successfully broken through the previous consolidation range and opened upward, and may continue to rise after a short-term technical return.
The first support level is $1760 / oz below, the second support level is $1746 / oz, the first pressure level is $1772 / oz above, and the second pressure level is $1789 / oz above.
5. Focus on Today
20:30 non-farm data for June in the United States.
Six. direction suggestion:
For gold medium-and long-term trading in the early multi-order to continue to hold;
For Loco-London gold several days of trading in the early multi-order to continue to hold, no positions wait and see. ;
For TD several days of trading pre-multiple orders continue to hold, no positions wait and see;
For intraday trading, within 20% of Loco-London gold positions within 1772 of the high short, 1780 stop loss, 1755 stop profit;
For intraday trading, during the day TD gold 30% position within 398 high into the short, 399 stop loss, 396 stop profit;
For silver medium-and long-term transactions more than one order to continue to hold;
For a few days of trading silver TD early light positions more than a single to continue to hold, the position is heavy to reduce the position by half;
For intraday trading silver TD4320 goes short every high, 4360 stop loss, 4270 stop profit;
For spot trading today may fall slightly, if not timely operation, as far as possible in the futures hedging operation.
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