5.28 SMM internal aluminum morning meeting minutes: overnight Shanghai aluminum main 2007 contract opened at 12965 yuan / ton, night weak finishing fell below 12900 yuan / ton, the daily trading rose steadily, standing on Wanshan in the afternoon, the day closed up at 13015 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.58%, the trading volume increased to 121000 lots, and the position decreased to 157000 lots. Overnight aluminum opened at $1520.0 a tonne and closed up 0.53 per cent at $1529.5 a tonne in late trading.
Macro: (1) overseas, the latest beige book report released by the Federal Reserve says that the new crown epidemic has seriously damaged the US economy in recent weeks, resulting in "serious" unemployment and business closures, and a decline in economic activity in all regions. and there has been a sharp decline in most regions, reflecting the damage caused by the new crown epidemic. When questioned by the Liaison Committee of the House of Commons, British Prime Minister Johnson said that the British government's new crown virus warning system would be "downgraded from level 4 to level 3" (Lido). (2) on the domestic side, 11 financial reform measures issued by the Office of the Financial Commission on May 27th, related to the reform plan of small and medium-sized banks, the gem reform and pilot registration system, the new three-board transition, and strengthening administrative penalties for financial violations (Lido). On the 27th, the central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations for the second day in a row, and the trading volume was directly increased from 10 billion yuan in the previous day to 120 billion yuan (Lido yen).
Fundamentals: (1) according to the Chinese Customs, China imported 9.9403 million tons of bauxite in April 2020, down 0.66 percent from the previous month, an increase of 1.65 percent over the same period last year; and 218900 tons of alumina in April 2020, down 35.37 percent from the previous month. (2) in terms of aluminum exports, in April 2020, China exported 224400 tons of plate and strip, down 12.35 percent from the previous month, a small increase of 0.34 percent over the same period last year; 29200 tons of aluminum cables, up 99 percent from the same period last year and 7 percent from the previous year; and 69900 tons of aluminum profiles and bars, a decrease of 5.47 percent from the previous month.
Spot: on Wednesday morning, the spot price in Wuxi area of Shanghai was 13330Mel 13350 yuan / ton, and the morning transaction was relatively light. As the big families began to announce their purchase plans, the transaction heat gradually rose. After 10:15, the spot price began to concentrate in 13340Mel 13360 yuan / ton, rising water was between 90Rue 110 yuan / ton, the price was 20 yuan / ton slightly higher than yesterday, and the spot price in Hangzhou area was 133370rel 13390 yuan / ton. Before noon, the shippers are more active, some middlemen are willing to receive goods at a low price, and the two sides have a good deal, but there is a slight stalemate in price. On the whole, the market trading volume is mainly contributed by large traders or large households, the downstream receiving attitude is cautious, because it is not optimistic about the future price, the buying attitude is wait-and-see, just need to pick up the goods. The overall transaction in East China is mediocre.
Summary: from a macro point of view, economic activities in some overseas areas have been restarted one after another, the domestic macro atmosphere has also continued to warm up, and the global trading atmosphere has eased somewhat; at home, the fundamentals continue to go to the warehouse to form a strong support for Shanghai aluminum. It is expected that Shanghai aluminum will still be dominated by strong shocks in the short term, and the price difference will remain strong the next month. We need to pay continuous attention to the recent downstream consumption and the marginal changes of internal and external strength.
(SMM Li Hao 021Mui 51666863)