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SMM spot Metal spot Trading Weekly Review (2020.5.18 Mel 2020.5.22)
May 22,2020 20:13CST
translation
Source:SMM
SMM spot Metal spot Trading Weekly Review (2020.5.18 Mel 2020.5.22)
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM, May 22:

This week, basic metals showed a trend of rising and falling. During the week, countries around the world gradually relaxed epidemic prevention restrictions, the economy gradually liberalized crude oil inventories, oil prices led to a rise in commodity prices, and domestic policy expectations brought about by the convening of the two sessions increased the market risk appetite. Bulls entered the market to promote the basic metals to go four consecutive times. SMMI rose 0.88% in a week, lead rose, and primary lead stocks fell, making Shanghai lead break through the concussion range and gain a foothold. Weekly rise of 1.74%, spot water rose steadily, SMMI.Pb rose 2.17% a week. Shanghai tin bulls are pushing up 1.9 per cent next week, but spot fears of heights are hard to keep up, with SMMI.Sn rising 1.67 per cent a week. Copper and aluminum

The performance was the same. Lun Copper shot up above US $5400, while Shanghai Copper shot up 44500 yuan / ton before giving up the rise. although the spot rising water rose first and then suppressed, the rising water was still relatively high. SMMI.Cu rose 1.02% per week, SMMI.Al rose 1.00% a week, Shanghai aluminum broke through the 10,000 round mark, and spot rising water rose sharply in the active buying of large investors. Nickel rushes higher and falls back. After Shanghai Nickel broke through 105000 yuan in the middle of the week, the bulls gave up some of their gains on Friday under the pressure of a large number of bulls leaving the market. under the drag of the continuous decline in Jinchuan Nickel rising water in the spot week, SMMI.Ni only rose 0.55% in the week. Only zinc fell weekly during the week, and zinc in Shanghai stock traded out of the inverted V situation during the week, basically giving up its gains during the week, while spot prices fell slightly. Bargain-hunting occurred when prices fell after the week, and SMMI.Zn fell 0.66 per cent in the week. Near the end of next week, the long order will basically come to an end, China will enter the landing period of policy implementation after the end of the two sessions, the basic metals will also go through a period of shock consolidation, and the long-short game will be intensified.

Copper: this week Lunzhong shows a rise and fall, and the center of gravity is higher than last week. The fluctuation of international oil price has an obvious linkage effect on the trend of copper price. The gradual easing of epidemic prevention restrictions around the world is expected to boost fuel demand, coupled with continued production cuts on the supply side, and the sharp drop in crude oil inventories has led to a sharp rise in oil prices this week, followed by a rapid rise in copper prices. News of positive signs in the new crown vaccine trial this week strongly boosted market risk appetite and provided upward momentum for copper prices. But as tensions between China and the United States escalate, investors worry that trade relations between the two countries are deteriorating, affecting the pace of global economic recovery and partly limiting the rise in copper prices. From a fundamental point of view, the World Bureau of Metals Statistics (WBMS) reported an oversupply of 188000 tons of copper in the global copper market from January to March this year, adding to market concerns about shrinking copper demand, making it difficult for copper prices to continue to rise. Zhou Chulun copper opened at US $5205 / ton and rose US $140 / ton on Monday alone, a daily increase of 3.09%. After shock finishing, it rose again to a weekly high of US $5464 / ton. Close to the weekend, the market quickly gave up its gains and fell, losing the $5300 / ton mark. Lun copper currently closed at $5278 a tonne, up $92.50 a tonne, or 1.78 per cent. This week, Lun copper position increased by 1119 hands to 275000 hands. At present, Lun copper is negative, giving up most of the gains in the week, falling below the 5-day moving average, and the KDJ opening is closed. Continue to pay attention to whether foreign macro policies can continue to work, as well as the fundamental structure of supply and demand, whether it can support Lun Copper to rise again.

The center of gravity of copper in Shanghai this week is slightly higher than that of last week, showing an upward trend during the week. From a macro point of view, the domestic market is looking forward to the convening of the "two sessions", the market is expected to have more positive policies, before the meeting, this optimistic expectation continues to rise to support the upward price of copper. However, concerns about the long-term impact of the new crown epidemic remain. At present, the cumulative global diagnosis of new crown pneumonia has exceeded 5 million, the development of a new crown vaccine for Moderna was questioned this week, and investors' caution suppressed the rising trend of copper prices. The 2020 government work report released over the weekend also did not set specific GDP growth targets, confirming market expectations of severe economic damage. In addition, tensions between China and the United States have further escalated as global investors worry that another deterioration in trade relations between the two countries will damage the economy, and the recent upsurge of risk sentiment has put pressure on copper prices. At the beginning of the week, the main copper in Shanghai opened at 42750 yuan / ton, recorded four positive lines in a row, touched the highest point of the week, 44500 yuan / ton, declined rapidly near the weekend, returned to the 43000 pass, and finally closed at 43260 yuan / ton, up 320 yuan / ton in the week, with a weekly increase of 0.75%. This week, the main position of copper in Shanghai increased by 8101 hands to 109000 hands, mainly for long positions. At present, Shanghai Copper closed the negative column, giving up all the gains in the previous two days, but it is still in the upstream channel, and there are still multiple moving averages to support it. Continue to pay attention to the guidelines of the relevant policies of the "two sessions", and pay attention to whether the bulls can build up the momentum to support the copper price to remain strong.

On the spot side, this week's rise and paste water showed a trend of rising first and then suppressing it. At the beginning of the week, the price of 2006 contracts was quoted, and the activity of both buyers and sellers was better than that of last week. Due to the maintenance of the domestic de-depot rhythm, copper stocks are currently at a low level, the price of the holder is strong, and to further push up the rising water, the market transaction is dominated by the receipt of goods by traders. The spot price for the current month's contract has been raised from 140,170 yuan / ton to 180,210 yuan / ton. In the middle of the week, Shanghai copper futures rose, superimposed a large number of imported copper inflows, holders are more willing to cash at high prices, have lowered quotations in order to close the deal, some downstream bargain replenishment, there is room for trade prices, the overall transaction shows a wait-and-see cautious situation. The spot quotation high fell back to the rising water level of 150,000,170 yuan / ton, giving up the increase during the week. On the whole, the supply structure of the market has changed during the week, and the mentality of the holders has also changed accordingly. Under the abundant supply of goods, the voice and price control ability of the seller's market have been suppressed.

Aluminum: Lun Aluminum as a whole showed a concussive upward posture this week. At the beginning of the week, it was under pressure running below 1500 US dollars / ton, and was bound in layers of moving averages. in the middle of the week, with the sharp rise in crude oil, macro-emotional confidence warmed up, and non-ferrous metals were driven to turn red across the whole line. aluminum prices finally broke through the integer barrier above under the guidance of the market, reaching a high of 1524.5 US dollars / ton, brushing a new high in a recent month, due to continued weakness in the upward performance, and rebounded with the low level of the US index. Lun aluminum fell back to its high on Friday, closing at $1504.5 a tonne at 18:00, a weekly gain of $44.50, or 3.05 per cent. Next week, we will focus on macro data such as the dollar index, US new home sales in April and the monthly rate of durable goods orders, and whether Lunal can hold above 1500 US dollars / ton.

Shanghai Aluminum's main 2007 contract fluctuated upstream this week, opening at 12580 yuan / ton. The center of gravity of the k-line rose day by day in the first half of the week, reaching a high of 13020 yuan / ton in the middle of the week, a new high in more than two months, and a slight lack of momentum to continue to rise. Bulls closed down and gave up the gains of the previous two days. On Friday, the weekly K-line closed at 12790 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 190yuan / ton and a weekly increase of 1.51%. This week, the center of gravity is above the 5 / 10 moving average, and above the 20-day moving average under pressure, taking into account the weakening of long-term consumption expectations and the pressure on imported aluminum ingots, the upward space is expected to be limited next week. Next week, we will pay attention to the market reaction to the results of the two sessions and changes in the overall trading atmosphere.

Spot transactions this week Monday and Friday slightly better, the other days performance is mediocre, overall transaction activity is not as good as last week. The spot prices in Wuxi and Shanghai are concentrated at 13,120mur13540 yuan / ton, the average weekly price is 426 yuan / ton higher than last week, and the spot price is between 80rel / ton and 260 yuan / ton. The spot price in Hangzhou area is between 13130mur13540 yuan / ton from the beginning of the week to the end of the week. The purchasing strength of large households this week is not as strong as that of last week, but the purchase price still has a strong guiding effect on the market. As for traders, the shippers are active this week, mainly because it is difficult to be optimistic about the high water and strong prices in the future, so they are willing to cash at high prices, the middlemen are willing to deliver and receive goods for long orders, and the trading between the two sides is more active. Downstream, Monday replenishment is more active, due to the sharp rise in spot prices in the middle of the week, the enthusiasm of receiving goods has been frustrated to wait and see, near the weekend due to the weekend stock demand superimposed aluminum prices fell sharply, low replenishment willingness has rebounded. In addition, considering that next Monday is the long order settlement day, traders' financial settlement time, it is expected that next week's transaction activity will be affected, rising water or continue to fall.

Lead: the low level of lun lead has risen this week, and the center of gravity has shifted slightly upward. At the beginning of the week, Lun lead accelerated upward, reaching a high of US $1703 / ton before coming under pressure at the 60-day moving average. Coupled with heightened tensions in Sino-US relations, Lun lead gave up its gains, stopped falling and stabilized at US $1640, and there was still support on the 20th line. finally reported at 1648.5 US dollars / ton. Next week's macro data will be based on the signed sales data of new and existing homes in the United States in April, which has a limited impact on the market, focusing on the development of the epidemic in South America and the development of the situation in China and the United States. judging from the current tone, the macro atmosphere of the market is showing signs of weakening. Lun lead may be 1615, 695 US dollars / ton.

This week Shanghai lead shock uplink, early platform effective breakthrough. At the beginning of the week, Shanghai lead slowly rose based on the 10-day moving average around 13800 yuan / ton, and then bulls added positions. Shanghai lead reached 14280 yuan / ton, basically recovering the decline since the epidemic, and was later set by the two sessions not to exceed expectations, non-ferrous metal weakened, and Shanghai lead gave up some of its gains, falling back near the Wansi pass and finally reported at 14080 yuan / ton. Next week, we will focus on the relevant information in the next two sessions in China, whether there is a new boost policy, and so on. Technically, the trend of lead in Shanghai is strong, and it is expected to be dominated by high-level shocks in the short term. Shanghai lead 13900 / ton 14300 yuan / ton

This week, the mainstream spot operation is 14150Mi 14450 yuan / ton. As far as SMM knows, the production of primary lead enterprises is basically stable this week. Except Henan, refineries in other regions are quoted at a discount of 50,150 yuan / ton to the average price of SMM1# lead, while Henan is mainly quoted at level of the average price of SMM1# lead. In the next few days, the volume of bulk orders in Henan decreased, mainly to grow orders. In the trade market, the supply of goods from the holders is still not much, but the overall feedback from traders on the spot transaction pressure has increased. As of Friday, the domestic lead common brand lead on the 2006 contract rose 150 yuan / ton; the supply of the recycled lead market was stable. As of Friday, the mainstream quotation for tax recycled refined lead left the factory at an average discount of 200 yuan / ton and above to SMM1# lead, and in some areas to 350 yuan / ton. Consumer side, from the market feedback, the current transaction is weak, the downstream pick-up pace is general, but the operating rate of large enterprises is still high, lead ingots social inventory fluctuation is not big this week.

Zinc: this week, Lun Zinc shot high and fell back. Zhou Chu Lun zinc prices changed from last week's decline, prices fluctuated upward, and after the first line of 2000 US dollars was blocked and consolidated, the price continued to increase positions and went higher, the price approached 2040 US dollars / ton, but the selling pressure above was strong, and the price gave up part of the rise. however, the first line of the $2000 mark formed support, and the price turned to a narrow concussion trend. Although the inventory of LME zinc ingots soared by 8900 US dollars per ton on Wednesday, the market sentiment was driven by the sharp rise in crude oil and the US stock market. Prices once soared to 2053.5 US dollars / ton, reaching a recent high. Technically, the top was suppressed by the Bollinger channel, coupled with the fact that the fundamental short-term market demand has not been significantly improved. Lun Zinc lacks further action energy. Many positions are reduced and zinc prices fall back. Prices accelerated again after a narrow shock of $2000 / ton. Lun zinc was dragged down by a sharp drop in crude oil on Friday, falling to $1948 / ton at one point, fully giving up its gains at the beginning of the week and down 0.46 per cent from the previous week.

This week, Shanghai zinc first rose and then suppressed the V trend. The domestic two sessions will be held soon, the market is full of expectations for the launch of more economic stimulus measures in China, and the market risk appetite has increased. Shanghai zinc rose rapidly at the beginning of the week. After the main contract broke through 16500 yuan / ton, it continued to increase positions upstream, rising to a maximum of 16965 yuan / ton. However, the pressure at the integer level of 17000 yuan above the price was greater, and the high price was actively closed out by many positions, and the price gave up some of the increase. The high price and narrow range shock consolidation on Wednesday, but the inventory of lun zinc increased sharply after the close, which led to a sharp drop in the opening price of night trading, which was supported after approaching 16500 yuan / ton. The price recorded a V reversal, the high price was suppressed by short positions, and the price began to dive. The price was supported by the 20-day moving average, and the price was temporarily breathed and waited for an opportunity to break 16500 yuan / ton, but it was suppressed again on the way up, and the price fell rapidly, falling below 16300 yuan / ton. The price fluctuates in a narrow range. On Friday, the domestic government work report did not put forward the GDP growth target, and the new investment in traditional infrastructure was limited, which fell short of market expectations. At the same time, affected by the decline in crude oil and surrounding metals, the center of gravity of zinc prices in Shanghai again moved down to 16165 yuan / ton. Later, with some short sellers leaving, prices rebounded into a narrow volatility trend. The main contract closed at 16395 yuan / ton, down 0.43% from the previous week.

In the Shanghai market this week, the domestic water price for 06 contracts is about 145murl 160 yuan / ton, Shuangyan and Chihong are about 150Mel 170 yuan / ton for 06 contracts, and the imported SMC, Spain, Belgium and Peru are basically digested by Spain, Belgium, and Peru for a water price of 100,000,130 yuan per ton in June. Zinc prices fell after the high shock this week, smelters shipped normally, and some of the monthly orders of traders expired this week. At the beginning of the week, only purchases were needed in the lower reaches of the high zinc prices. Traders contributed mainly to market transactions, and market trading was general. The spot quotation was fine-tuned from about 160 yuan / ton of rising water to about 150 yuan / ton of rising water. In the second half of the week, zinc adjusted downwards, downstream purchasing intention improved, inquiry procurement increased, coupled with the simultaneous release of demand from long traders, the market transaction rebounded steadily, and the quotation remained stable around 150 yuan / ton of rising water. This week's transaction showed obvious pre-strength and post-weakness, which was generally flat compared with last week.

The price difference between Ningbo and Shanghai this week has changed from 10 yuan / ton to 10 yuan / ton discount from last Friday to around 120 yuan / ton-150 yuan / ton in the contract between Ningbo and Shanghai zinc 2006 in Ningbo area this week, and the price difference between Ningbo and Shanghai this week has changed from 10 yuan / ton to 10 yuan / ton. Zinc prices remained strong and volatile earlier this week, and downstream enterprises were less willing to receive goods in the first half of the week, and the whole was still mainly wait-and-see, with the spot rising water in the Shanghai market to maintain a high level, while the Ningbo market was difficult to follow, and the price difference between the two places gradually changed from positive to negative. Ningbo is more flat than Shanghai. However, after entering the second half of the week, non-ferrous metals generally fell, and the willingness of downstream enterprises to enter the market was significantly enhanced. Near the weekend, some enterprises also had low-price replenishment behavior, and the overall transaction was basically concentrated in the vicinity of 120 MFT 130 yuan / ton for the June contract. Some high-priced brands were more willing to bid up, and the transaction was concentrated around 150 yuan / ton for the June contract. This week, the market is expected to gradually digest the two sessions, zinc prices fell to drive downstream enterprises to buy, this week's transaction situation is slightly better than last week, and concentrated in the second half of the week.

The price of zinc in Guangdong market this week focused on the price of 2007 yuan / ton of zinc in Shanghai, while the discount of 150 yuan / ton in Guangdong market was 40 yuan higher than that in Shanghai market last Friday. At the beginning of the week, Guangdong inventory broke through 60, 000 tons, and traders were more willing to receive goods at low prices, but the lower reaches were generally receptive to high prices and higher rising water, and they just needed to make purchases. at the beginning of the week, the mainstream transaction prices of spot rising water are concentrated in the range of 6080 yuan / ton for 2007 contracts. Entering the second half of the week, the arrival of the market still did not improve, and the market continued to remove inventory. at the same time, the high price of zinc fell, stimulating downstream replenishment demand, driving market transactions, and the price gap between Shanghai and Guangdong continued to widen. The futures price difference between the current month and the next month also widened. Under the influence of many factors, the holder continued to raise the price of rising water. On Friday, the spot quotation reached about 2007 yuan for the contract. Generally speaking, under the circumstances that it is difficult to increase supply in the short term, the current demand in Guangdong market is relatively stable. Although alloy consumption is in the doldrums as a whole, galvanizing consumption is improving and battery demand is stable. While making up for a certain lack of consumption, it also supports the overall market demand. We are still optimistic about short-term spot water rising performance in Guangdong.

This week, Tianjin Zinc 2006 contract with Shanghai Zinc rose from 120 yuan / ton to 270 yuan / ton, and the rising water in Tianjin stock market rose from 30 yuan / ton to 70 yuan / ton, maintaining a range of shocks and did not change much. Zinc prices rose to a high again at the beginning of this week, close to the Wanqi pass, traders maintained rising water quotations, due to less shipments of Hongye and Chihong brands in the market, resulting in a strong willingness to ship at a positive price, but at a high spot price, the downstream is less willing to receive goods; in the middle of the week, the spot price in Tianjin maintained a high shock, traders did not adjust the price for shipment, and most of the downstream purchases were mainly low-cost imported zinc, No. 1 zinc, etc., and the transaction of mainstream brands was poor. On Friday, the decline in zinc prices widened, and after the spot price in Tianjin plummeted, traders maintained a discount quotation of 200 yuan / ton to 260 yuan / ton, with a marked improvement over the previous period. On the whole, traders are mainly shipping this week, but due to the large volume of low-cost goods in the Tianjin market, the transaction of mainstream brands is poor as a whole.

Tin: the overall situation of Lunxi electronic disk is rising first and then suppressing it this week. At the beginning of the week, due to the positive factors such as crude oil prices and China's upcoming two sessions, it showed an overall upward trend, reaching a weekly high of US $15735 / ton. Then it came under pressure due to the rise in the dollar index and the fall in crude oil prices, and as of Friday, the latest price of Lunxi was around $15300 / ton. The weekly level rose $340 / ton, or 2.27%, with a turnover of 1637 lots and a position of 16910 lots, a decrease of 534 lots. Zhou Neilun Xi is a Xiaoyang line, the lower part of the entity is located near the 5-day moving average, and the upper shadow line is under pressure at the 20-day moving average. In terms of indicators, the daily line-level MACD index still has a top deviation state, the bond of KDJ index is about to form a dead fork, and the shadow line under the K line is supported by the middle rail of the Bollinger belt.

The main 2007 contracts of tin in Shanghai this week showed an overall trend of rising and falling. At the beginning of the week, short positions and long positions significantly pushed up the price of tin in Shanghai, and at one point they rose to the level of the center of gravity before falling in mid-March and temporarily stabilized, reaching a weekly high of 136180 yuan / ton. Affected by the falling factors of the overnight outer disk on Friday, some bulls took profits and closed their positions in Shanghai. Tin fell sharply under pressure, wiping out nearly half of the week's gains. On Friday, the main tin 2007 contract in Shanghai closed at 131710 yuan / ton. The weekly level rose 2470 yuan / ton, or 1.91%, with trading volume of 225000 lots and positions of 28187 lots, a decrease of 2824 hands. During the week, Shanghai tin closed with a positive line, the physical part was located near the 20-day moving average, the lower part was supported by the 5-day moving average, and the upper shadow line was longer at the 60-day moving average. In terms of indicators, the daily line level MACD index maintains the top deviation pattern, the KDJ index forms a dead fork, and the K line runs on the upper rail to the middle rail of the Bollinger belt.

This week, the spot price of Shanghai tin follows the overall trend of Shanghai tin market, which rose sharply at the beginning of the week and once made up for the decline since mid-March. Shanghai tin spot prices rose obviously, and some traders made purchases. Spot rising water range downward, downstream enterprises due to fear of heights and other factors to maintain a wait-and-see mentality just need to buy. Tin fell in Shanghai on Friday, while spot prices rose, but the overall price was still lower than in the previous period. The overall transaction atmosphere in the Shanghai-tin spot market this week is mediocre. In terms of rising discount, affected by the market fluctuation, the rising water range of the week showed a trend of first decreasing and then increasing. On Friday, the price of Yunxi in the Shanghai tin 2007 contract rose around 4500mur5000 yuan / ton, the ordinary Yunzi rose around 4000mur4500 yuan / ton, and the small brand rose around 3500 yuan / ton.

Nickel: Lenny opened at US $11860 per tonne this week. With the development of new crown vaccines favorable and the market optimistic about the economic recovery, Lenny recovered last week's decline in the first two days of the week, reaching 12400 US dollars per ton in the first two days of the week. Crude oil prices in China and the United States unexpectedly fell into the warehouse this week, and the rise in crude oil prices ignited the long enthusiasm of the nickel market, pushing Renni up to 12910 US dollars per ton, the highest level in nearly two months. But just at this time, the suspected "own finger" incident in the Shanghai nickel market triggered the closing of the main position in the bulls. Lunni was dragged down sharply by this, giving up some of its gains, falling to the 20-day moving average of $12200 / ton before it was temporarily supported. As of May 22nd, Renni closed temporarily at US $12220 / ton, up 3.38% at US $400 per week as of May 22nd. From a technical point of view, Lunni shock pattern has not been broken, it is expected that next week will still rely on the support level of the lower 40 Universe 60 moving average, consolidation shock adjustment.

This week Shanghai Nickel 2007 main contract opened at 98810 yuan / ton, with the approaching domestic two sessions, the market optimism is rising. Under the support of the 60-day moving average, Shanghai Nickel began to break through the 100, 000 mark on Monday, and the next day it was on the first line of 102000 yuan / ton at the next station boosted by favorable vaccine research and development. After a slight shock consolidation on Wednesday, the bulls sharply increased their positions again on Thursday, reaching a weekly high of 106160 yuan / ton at one point. However, in the case that the main bulls have not yet left the market, one minute before the close of the night market on Thursday, due to the flat position of the suspected "own finger", triggered the "demon nickel" diving, so that a number of Shanghai Nickel contracts triggered the limit. Although it was once repaired to 104000 yuan / ton after the opening of trading on Friday morning, the bulls still closed the market one after another, and Shanghai Nickel fell again. After giving up most of the gains of the week, it closed at 99760 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of only 0.36%. The weekly position decreased by 20743 to 79672, and the trading volume decreased by 951000 to 2.49 million. At present, there are no obvious negative factors in the nickel market, Indonesia has not released signals related to the liberalization of nickel ore exports, the spot price of stainless steel remains high, the price of nickel pig iron is strongly supported by nickel ore costs, and nickel spot trading was released on Friday. In the case of no major changes in the fundamentals, the upside was frustrated, and the Shanghai Nickel pullback did not fall below the previous operating range for the time being. It is expected that Shanghai Nickel will still return to the concussion pattern next week, running at 98800mi 103000 yuan / ton first line.

In the spot market, all traders changed from Shanghai Nickel 06 contract to 07 main monthly contract quotation on Monday, and traders were more willing to raise prices after the turn of the month. At the beginning of the week, Russo Nickel's mainstream quotation for Shanghai Nickel 2007 contract was reported near Pingshui and remained stable in the next few days. With Shanghai Nickel for four consecutive days, the downstream fear of high delivery is cautious, making spot trading more and more deserted. It was not until the nickel price plunged on Friday and returned to around 100,000 that downstream demand was released and trading volume rebounded significantly. As for Jinchuan nickel, manufacturers continued to be out of stock in Shanghai this week, and traders mostly brought it up in Jinchang, so the supply is tight and the space for rising water is limited. The continuous rise in nickel prices has caused Jinchuan Company to reduce the ex-factory price by an appropriate amount, stimulating traders to receive goods. The circulation of nickel in Jinchuan did not improve until Friday. At the beginning of this week, the import window briefly opened, nickel plates flowed into the country one after another in the bonded area, and some of the original nickel beans also arrived, but the holder did not reduce the price, so the spot sticker water was not affected and is expected to remain stable next week.

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