Minutes of 5.20 SMM Internal Aluminium Morning meeting
Disk: on Tuesday, Shanghai Aluminum Company 2007 opened at 12895 yuan / ton, touched a high of 12980 yuan / ton after opening, closed at 12850 yuan / ton during the day, and mainly closed at 12830 yuan / ton in the night market. As of the night close, the contract price spread in recent months widened to 12830 yuan / ton. On Tuesday, Lun Aluminum opened at US $1500 / ton in the morning, closing at US $1488.5 / ton, down US $11.50 / ton, or 0.77%, mainly by long positions.
Macro: (1) overseas, the number of new housing starts in the United States recorded a record decline in April, falling by 30.2% to an annual rate of 891000, the lowest level since February 2015. The European Council formally approved the short-term employment guarantee mechanism. On the 19th, local time, the EU Council of Economic and Finance Ministers held a video conference and formally adopted the short-term employment guarantee mechanism proposed by the European Commission. (2) on the domestic side, Minister of Transport Li Xiaopeng said that in order to hedge against the impact of the epidemic, the Ministry of Transport has stored a number of new projects on the basis of the existing project library, with an estimated additional investment of more than 800 billion yuan. Construction can start in time if necessary.
Fundamentals: (1) Alumina, yesterday's domestic trading was light, SMM alumina region-weighted price was maintained at 2206 yuan / ton compared with the previous day, and a CIF $267mp Mt was sold overseas within the day. From Western Australia to China, the shipping date was issued in early July (positive); (2) New Territories pump industry issued a notice that Tianshan Aluminum Industry 17 billion yuan backdoor matter was examined and approved by the Securities Regulatory Commission (neutral); (3) in terms of aluminum bars, processing fees fell yesterday, and processing fees in Foshan were reported high and low. The initial self-quoted price was 750 Mel 800 yuan / ton, and the high price of automobile transportation was close to 900 yuan / ton. Some traders were bearish about the future and actively adjusted their prices for shipments. The low price of the big stick fell to around 700 yuan / ton, and the transaction was limited (bearish). (4) in terms of waste aluminum, according to the data of China solid waste Chemicals Management Network, the seventh batch of non-aluminum approval documents in 2020 was 1480 tons, an increase of 44% compared with the previous seven batches, totaling 478159 tons. On the whole, if the internal and external demand recovers slowly, under high cost pressure, imported waste aluminum and aluminum alloy ingots will continue to have an impact on the domestic; If demand recovers quickly, the repair of internal and external price differences will gradually reduce the proportion of imports in the second half of the year, depending on whether the new standard of imported waste aluminum cancels the approval system.
Spot: a small amount of spot prices in Wuxi, Shanghai, were between 13490 and 13510 yuan / ton on Tuesday morning, with more inquiries and receivers in the morning, but the actual transaction was less, because the market performance was more and less. Under the background of higher aluminum futures, the price quoted by the holder began to focus on 13510 Mustco 13540 yuan / ton, the average price rose near 335 yuan / ton compared with the previous day, and the rising water was between 200 million yuan / ton. Under the expansion of aluminum futures back structure, the spot water continued to rise. The market middleman's enthusiasm for receiving goods has not diminished, the holder's performance is high, and the market transaction is very active. Due to the sharp rise in aluminum prices, the mood of receiving goods downstream has been frustrated and there is not much to buy. The overall transaction in East China is better.
Conclusion: the two sessions of the whole country will be held this week, and the macro expectations are expected to give a boost to non-ferrous metals, and the fundamentals continue to go to the warehouse to form support for Shanghai Aluminium. It is difficult for the price gap to narrow rapidly in the first week after the month change, and it is expected that Shanghai Aluminum will still be dominated by strong shocks in the short term. Need to continue to pay attention to the release of macro signals.
(SMM Li Hao 021Mui 51666863)