SMM5 March 18:
I. changes in macroeconomic policies:
1. The actual monthly rate of retail sales in the United States in April was-16.40%, expected to be-12%, with a previous value of-8.4%. The monthly rate of core retail sales in the United States in April was actually announced at-17.20%, expected to be-8.5%, and the previous value was-4.2%. Data show that US retail sales fell at a monthly rate of 16.4 per cent in April, the biggest drop since records began in 1992.
Two. Market performance:
Gold rose moderately in the previous session, with a high of $1751 / oz and a low of $1729 / oz to close at $1743 / oz.
TD gold rose moderately in the previous session, closing at 388.88 yuan / kg, up 5.33 yuan.
In the previous session, TD silver rose moderately to close at 3956 yuan / kg, up 176yuan.
Three. Position analysis:
Gold and silver CFTC non-commercial net long positions are in the middle and high level, and the risk of long positions is gradually accumulating.
Fourth, technical analysis:
On the last trading day, the London gold daily line closed with a Zhongyang line, the closing price closed above MA5, MA5 went up, MA60 continued to extend, the price broke through the previous day's high and broke through the nearly 7-year high, the RSI index was in the normal range, the triangular range finished and broke through upward, the upper space opened, and continued to rise in the short term.
The first support level is $1722 / oz below, the second support level is $1700 / oz, the first pressure level is $1751 / oz above, and the second pressure level is $1800 / oz above.
5. Focus on Today
No important data or events.
Six. direction suggestion:
Recent market expectations of the Fed's negative interest rate measures and the poor performance of economic data have led to precious metal prices breaking out of the consolidation range and opening up further. Precious metals are likely to accelerate in the short term.
What we need to be wary of is how likely it is to introduce negative interest rates. Judging from the current economic "arsenal" of the United States, there are still relatively sufficient measures to deal with the deterioration of the economy. I am afraid that after the expectation of negative interest rate speculation, investors need to do a good job in controlling the risk of their positions.
For gold medium-and long-term trading early multi-order to continue to hold, those without positions wait and see for the time being;
For a few days of trading, 20% of Loco-London gold positions make gains of 1730, stop losses of 1715, and stop profits of 1798. ;
For several days of trading TD Jin 30% position 385 low gain, 379 stop loss, 400 stop profit;
For intraday trading within 10% of Loco-London gold positions within 1738 bargain, 1728 plus 10% position, depending on the specific situation stop loss, 1751 stop profit;
For intra-day trading TD gold 20% position within 389 low gain, 385 plus 10% position stop loss, depending on the specific situation stop loss, 392.5 stop profit;
For silver medium-and long-term trading low into many continue to hold;
For several days of trading silver TD 20% position near 4000 bargain, such as pull back to 3900 and then fill 10% position, depending on the specific situation stop loss, 4200 stop profit;
For intraday trading silver TD4000 bargain, 3950 stop loss, 4100 stop profit;
For spot trading today may continue to rise after a slight correction, if not timely operation, as far as possible in the futures hedging operation.
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