[SMM brief Analysis] there is a small risk of falling back in the short term when alumina prices are approaching and peaking.

SMM5 March 17, this Friday SMM alumina region weighted price of 2206 yuan / ton, slightly lower than last Friday 3 yuan / ton. During the week, the market trading price was relatively deadlocked, and the electrolytic aluminum factory had a strong wait-and-see mood and was in no hurry to procure. at the same time, alumina plants and holding traders were forced to approach the buyer's psychological price, but the transaction was still light, and the scale was just about to be closed. The market-making and trading price in the northern region is concentrated at 2200 RMB2250 / ton. As of today, the price of SMM alumina in Shanxi is 2230 yuan / ton, Henan is 2200 yuan / ton, Shandong is 2150Mel 2200 / ton, Guangxi is 2190mur2200 / ton, Guizhou is 2220 yuan / ton.

Figure 1. Price trend of alumina in four places

Source: SMM

For the future, we believe that although market trading temporarily maintains the market price within a week, the spot price of alumina may have reached its peak and may decline slightly in the short term. First of all, from the demand side, the downstream purchasing intention is poor, and it is difficult to wait and see. It is difficult to promote a sustained rise in prices; at the same time, the recent operation of supply-end alumina remains stable, and overseas low-price transactions and arrival in Hong Kong continue to suppress domestic prices. Continuous attention should be paid to the raw material inventory and cash flow level of electrolytic aluminum plants, as well as changes in overseas alumina imports and prices.

(SMM Li Hao 021Mui 5166 6863)

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