5.15 minutes of SMM Internal Aluminium Morning meeting
On Thursday, the contract of Shanghai Aluminum main Company 2007 opened at 12435 yuan / ton in the morning, fluctuated high during the day, touched a high level of 12575 yuan / ton, closed at 12530 yuan / ton in daily trading, and rose slowly to close at 12535 yuan / ton after opening slightly at 12485 yuan / tonne. by the end of the night, the monthly price difference widened to 240yuan / ton. Thursday, the low shock of aluminum, closed at $1476 / ton, compared with the opening of the day closed flat, mainly long positions.
Macro: (1) overseas, according to data released by the US Department of Labor on May 14, the number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the United States reached 2.981 million at the beginning of the week on May 9, with an expected figure of 2.5 million, compared with the previous value of 3.169 million. Over the past eight weeks, there have been more than 36 million (bearish); G20 trade and investment ministers have agreed to support world trade and investment during the epidemic, avoid policies that create unnecessary barriers to international trade or have a devastating impact on global supply chains (Lido). (2) on the domestic side, the second batch of central banks' targeted reduction took effect today, and the first batch was implemented on April 15, releasing 200 billion yuan (Li duo). The meeting of the political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee analyzed the situation of prevention and control of the new crown pneumonia at home and abroad, studied and deployed regular epidemic prevention and control measures, and studied how to enhance the stability and competitiveness of the industrial chain supply chain (Lido).
Fundamentals: (1) alumina, yesterday's market trading was light, the wait-and-see mood of the electrolytic aluminum plant was strong, and the market psychological high fell slightly compared with the previous period. The weighted price of SMM alumina region was reported at 2206 yuan yesterday. Tons, down 5 yuan / ton from the previous trading day (bearish). (2) in terms of aluminum electrolysis, Guangyuan Zhongfu Phase I has a full production capacity of 125000 tons on May 12, and the second phase of 250000 tons will be put into production in July. (3) downstream, the output of aluminum foil in Luoyang Wanji Aluminum processing Co., Ltd. reached 3006 tons, the highest since the enterprise was put into production. (4) inventory, yesterday SMM statistics electrolytic aluminum social inventory 1.058 million tons, weekly reduction of 114000 tons, Shanghai, tin, Guangdong and Henan and other major consumption areas continue to strongly go to the warehouse; aluminum bar inventory 112800 tons, weekly decline of 19300 tons, the main reason is that the arrival of goods is on the low side, the export volume is still good (benefit more).
Spot: on Thursday morning, the spot price in Wuxi area of Shanghai was between 1279012810 yuan / ton, and the discount water was between 10 yuan / ton and 10 yuan / ton. The holder delivered the goods normally, the middleman received the goods, and the middleman received the goods. On the whole, the trading between the buyer and the seller was more active. As the center of gravity of the aluminum price rose and the paste water did not change, the holder quotation began to rise to 12820-12860 yuan / ton, but the transaction heat dropped somewhat. And the trading volume is not as good as the previous period. Normal procurement downstream, mainly on demand. East China as a whole, the deal is OK. It is expected that the spot in East China today will be about 10 yuan / ton that month.
Summary: under the background of domestic macro improvement, the fundamentals see that electrolytic aluminum continues to be strong to give some support to short-term aluminum prices. Today is the last trading day before delivery, and the spread between prices is expected to further widen in recent months. After the change of months, with the gradual flow of imported aluminum ingots into China, superimposed a small rise in the domestic supply end, it is suggested that we should continue to pay attention to the internal and external strength changes and internal and external positive logic in the near future.
(SMM Li Hao 021-51666863)