Comment on the spot Exchange Day of SMM basic Metals on May 14

SMM, 14 May:

Copper: today's Yapanlun copper opened at $5223 / tonne, and after the opening of Shanghai copper, the copper short line rose to a daily high of $5235.5 / tonne. However, the impulse energy is insufficient, dragged down by the fall in oil prices, Lun copper fell back to the 5200 level, around 5228 US dollars / ton position shock collation. At the end of the Asian session, Lun copper rose slightly by $10 / ton, after which there was a sharp decline. Into the European session, Lun copper decline intensified. With today's LME inventory report surging 55650 tons, and more than half of the increase came from Busan, South Korea, Lun copper fell straight below the 5200 mark, directly probing the lowest point of 5181.5 US dollars / ton in the day. As of 17: 00, Lun Copper closed down $29.50, or 0.57 per cent, at $5182.5 a tonne. Supported by domestic copper in Shanghai, Geneva Copper has been arranged horizontally around US $5220 per ton, mainly because the Jiangxi government has introduced 16 articles to support the copper industry, boosting market confidence in the sustained recovery of copper consumer demand in China and diluting the pessimism in the market over the possibility of the Fed chairman denying the possibility of a negative interest rate policy. But global risk sentiment remains fragile. At present, the copper is negative, the KDJ index continues to expand, the technical face is short of copper price. Late attention was paid to the number of US jobless claims in the week ended May 9 and evening speeches by ECB officials to test whether Lun Copper could stop falling back above the 5200 mark.

Today, the main force of copper in Shanghai opened as low as 42930 yuan / ton in the morning. After the opening, the price of copper increased by more than 100 yuan / ton, and hovered briefly at the position of 43030 yuan / ton. Followed by a continuous increase in short positions, copper prices quickly fell to a daily low of 42800 yuan / ton. At this low, short departure led to a rebound in copper prices, the center of gravity stabilized in 43010 yuan / ton position, midday closed at 43040 yuan / ton. The opening copper price in the afternoon is horizontal plate finishing. Near the close of the long run led to a fall in copper prices, finally closed at 42910 yuan / ton, down 80 yuan / ton, down 0.19%. Within the day, the main force of Shanghai Copper, that is, the 2006 contract, reduced its position by 2358 hands to 113000 hands, mainly for long positions, and the position volume is about to be completed. Next, focus on the monthly change of the main contract; the trading volume decreased by 2.0 hands to 55000 hands. During the month, the contract day reduced positions by 5460 hands to 7015 hands, further narrowing the spread over 06 contracts to around $150 per tonne. In a speech last night, the chairman of the Federal Reserve argued that the US economy faced unprecedented downside risks and refuted the possibility of using a negative interest rate policy at this stage, cooling market risk appetite and keeping Shanghai copper low. Today, Jiangxi Province introduced 16 relevant measures to support the copper industry, including tax incentives, reducing electricity costs and expanding copper consumption, providing a strong support for copper prices and countering market pessimism about the macro-economy falling into recession. The short-term decline of copper in Shanghai in the morning was mainly affected by the fluctuation of international oil prices. At present, Shanghai copper close Yin, but there is still 20 days, 60 days moving average support, the long and short sides are still competing for 43000 yuan / ton level. At night, waiting for the outer plate to guide, test whether Shanghai copper can hold the 43000 yuan / ton barrier.

Today, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot to the current month contract flat water ~ Shengshui 20 yuan / ton, Pingshui copper transaction price 43100 yuan / ton ~ 43190 yuan / ton, Shengshui copper transaction price 43110 yuan / ton ~ 43200 yuan / ton. Today, the trend of copper futures in Shanghai is V-shaped. After exploring the 43000 yuan / ton barrier, it is blocked by a narrow range of 43200 yuan / ton. The monthly price spread shrinks to less than 200 yuan / ton. Before 11:00, it is basically stable in the range of 170-180 yuan / ton. Market holders have no willingness to sell goods. Good copper is concentrated in the range of 10 yuan / ton to 20 yuan / ton. Pingshui copper mostly revolves around flat water-rising water 10 yuan / ton, with little room for price pressure. The transaction activity of traders has decreased, but because the absolute price has dropped obviously, it has attracted part of the downstream to replenish goods, and the enthusiasm of inquiry has increased. Wet copper has been reduced to 50 yuan / ton by 40-30 yuan / ton in the morning market. Although the spot quotation has continued to rise compared with yesterday, there is almost no interval between brands, only 10 yuan / ton price difference. Today's market transactions are dominated by downstream buying. If the price spread continues to narrow significantly and close to the 100 yuan line, the rising water is expected to be raised again, and the transaction will also be further improved. In the afternoon, the plate is arranged in a narrow range of 43150-43200 yuan / ton, and the spot is also deadlocked in flat water to 5 yuan / ton, good copper rising water 10 yuan / ton, the transaction price is 43150-43200 yuan / ton, tomorrow the rising water will be pushed a little more.

Aluminum: aluminum opened at $1475.5 / ton in the morning. During the Asian session, it fluctuated upward, first sinking to near $1473 / ton, and then rising all the way up to a daily high of $1482 / tonne. After entering the European trading session, Lun aluminum quickly fell below all moving averages and went all the way down. As of 17:35, Lun aluminum fell to $1471.5 / ton, and rose slightly to close at $1475 / ton. Down US $1 / ton, down 0.07%, trading volume decreased by 7404 hands to 2723 hands, position increased by 9905 hands to 851000 hands, the center of gravity continued to sink from yesterday, so far closed at three consecutive negative, below all moving averages. In the context of the dollar index higher, today's outer plate is green, it is expected to continue to maintain a weak shock in the evening, continue to pay attention to the market trading atmosphere and the relevant macro data in Europe and the United States in the evening.

The Shanghai aluminum main force 2007 contract opened in the morning at 12435 yuan / ton, the first trading stage first raised and then suppressed, the opening first slightly explored 12475 yuan / ton and then fell back to the intraday low of 12410 yuan / ton. After the opening of the second trading stage, the aluminum price rebounded and fluctuated upward, hitting a daily high of 12575 yuan / ton in late trading. Near the close, due to some long positions, it softened to 12515 yuan / ton, closing at 12530 yuan / ton, with 32654 to 86524 hands reduced in trading volume. Position increased by 83 hands to 150000 hands, closed at the small positive line, the center of gravity rose from yesterday, but began to have signs of breaking through the upper 60-day moving average. Macroscopically, because tomorrow is the implementation day of the second wave of reduction by the central bank, the market atmosphere is expected to be more relaxed, coupled with the delivery of contracts tomorrow, aluminum prices are expected to be on the strong side, and the contract spread between the current month and the far month may be further widened.

Aluminum wide concussion in the early afternoon. In the morning, the spot price in Wuxi area of Shanghai is between 12790-12810 yuan / ton, the discount water is between 10-10 yuan / ton, the holder is normal delivery, the middleman can receive the goods, superimposed a large household normal purchase today, overall, the transaction between buyers and sellers is more active, with the aluminum price center of gravity floating and rising water has not changed, the holder quotation began to rise to 12820-12860 yuan / ton, but the transaction heat has dropped, and the trading volume is not as good as the early stage. Downstream normal procurement today, mainly on demand. The overall transaction in East China is OK today. Afternoon aluminum shock upward, individual cardholders quoted in the vicinity of 12900 yuan / ton, the month discount 20 yuan / ton, the month after the rise of 180 yuan / ton, only a small number of transactions between traders.

Lead: within the day, Lun lead opened at $1601.5 / ton. In the Asian period, Lun lead consolidated around the daily average, entering the European period, the outer disk non-ferrous metals as a whole weakened, Lun lead pressure weakened to $1592.5 / ton, as of 16: 11, Lun lead temporarily closed at $1595.5 / ton, down $1.50 / ton, down 0.09%. Lun lead temporarily closed a long shadow small negative line, fell below $160 / ton integer level, the above moving average line gradually showed a short arrangement of the market, expected night lead probability to continue a weak trend, the lower $1580 / ton support platform is facing the test.

Within the day, the Shanghai lead main force 2006 contract opened at 13795 yuan / ton, the whole day around the daily average weak shock, and up and down the amplitude of about 100 yuan / ton, finally closed at 13860 yuan / ton, position reduced 983 hands to 23944 hands, down 130 yuan / ton, down 0.93%. Shanghai lead newspaper long shadow small negative line, the pace of decline slowed down, the short-and medium-term moving average trend flattened, from the fundamental point of view, waste battery prices are easy to rise and difficult to fall, short-term or will give lead prices below the support, Shanghai lead to maintain the interval shock market in the near future, closely track the changes of lead ingot social bank.

Shanghai market Jinsha lead 14075-14125 yuan / ton, Shanghai lead 2006 contract up 240-300 yuan / ton, Wuxi market south lead 14025 yuan / ton, Shanghai lead 2006 contract up 200 yuan / ton. Lead continued weak decline, coupled with some of the imported lead began to pre-sale, holders of high prices are not strong, downstream to maintain the need for procurement, bulk order market transactions have not improved significantly for the time being.

Guangdong market South China lead 13900 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead 50 yuan / ton quotation; Henan Yuguang, Wanyang and other smelters to give priority to, Jinli, Wanyang 13850 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 13900 yuan / ton (traders supply); Hunan Shuikoushan 13850 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead (traders); Hunan Jingui 13700 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 150 yuan / ton. Jiang copper 13830 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 20 yuan / ton quotation. Yunnan small factory 13550 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 300yuan / ton quotation. Lead prices fluctuate down, smelters still maintain discount shipments, today some shippers are still slowing down the pace of shipments, today's market procurement is mainly recycled lead, primary trading is relatively light.

Zinc: Geneva Zinc opened at US $1963 / tonne. At the beginning of the day, short sentiment in the market heightened, Lunzn Zinc fell step by step and fell by US $1948 / tonne. With some funds stopping earnings and leaving the market, Lunzin V reversed to around US $1955 / tonne. Entering the European trading session, Lunzn Zinc resumed its downward trend and suspended the decline by a narrow range after refreshing its intraday low to US $1938.5 / tonne. As of 15: 55, Lun Zinc closed down $1943 / tonne, down $24.50 / tonne, or 1.25 per cent. Lun Zinc fell three times and its overall performance was relatively weak. The mood boost brought about by overseas economic restart gradually cooled, and the concomitant fear of supply recovery began to dominate market sentiment, but the current recovery of overseas mines is not optimistic. in addition, the story of mine shortage may be unfolding in overseas refineries to limit the decline of Lun Zinc, and pay attention to the strength of support in the middle rail of Brin Road below.

Intraday Shanghai zinc main force 2007 contract opened at 16630 yuan / ton, at the beginning of the day, driven by the long reduction, Shanghai zinc quickly fell back to 16325 yuan / ton, and then most of the V-word reverse backfilling day fell to 16420 yuan / ton near narrow fluctuations, long-short game fell into a stalemate, closed down 16430 yuan / ton, down 1.11%, trading volume reduced 24074 hands to 118000 hands, position volume reduced 6162 hands to 115000 hands. Period zinc recorded 4 consecutive negative, funds to leave the market, the current domestic fundamentals, the supply side story has not been further intensified, social inventory is also in a relatively abundant level, there is no new story to boost, it is expected that zinc will continue to adjust downwards, looking at the 40-day moving average support strength in the evening.

The mainstream transaction of zinc in Shanghai was 16570 Mel 16630 yuan / ton, while Shuangyan and Chihong traded at 16580 RMB16650 / ton. Shuangyan and Chihong quoted a price of 120 Mor 140 yuan per ton in June, while Shuangyan and Chihong quoted 140 yuan per ton in June, and the mainstream turnover of Zine was 16520 16570 yuan / ton. The Shanghai Zinc 2005 contract fell and rebounded, and the morning market closed at 16490 yuan / ton. Zinc prices fell further, and the adjustment range of market quotation was limited. In the morning market, domestic water rose about 130 yuan / ton, Shuangyan reported about 150 yuan / ton, the first trading period was mainly traded by traders, and the average price and average price-5 were the main transaction price. the feedback of rising discount is limited. Entering the second trading period, the willingness to receive goods in the market increased significantly, and the market quotation was slightly adjusted to 130-140 yuan / ton, but the transaction at high prices was relatively limited. Shuangyan, Huize and so on warmed up the transaction of downstream brands, but the price adjustment was limited, while the import quotation was raised. SMC and yp reported 100-120 yuan / ton, while Belgium reported 80,90 yuan / ton, accompanied by the recovery of downstream mining and buying. Low-price import transactions have warmed back, but downstream buying is relatively restrained, the current zinc price is still on the high side, intra-day transactions slightly warmer than yesterday.

The mainstream transaction of Ningbo Gao was 16570 RMB16670 / ton, and the price difference between Ningbo and Shanghai ordinary brands was narrowed from 30 yuan / ton yesterday to 20 yuan / ton. The price difference between Ningbo and Shanghai ordinary brands was around 140,000,000 yuan / ton for ordinary brands with a contract of 2006 yuan / ton. Zinc prices remained weak shock, downstream enterprises wait-and-see willingness to weaken, holders slightly increased water shipments. In the first period of the morning, the holder reported the goods more actively, Tiefeng, Huize and other sources of goods continued to quote yesterday, reporting a rise of 150 yuan / ton for the June contract, 160 yuan / ton for the Kirin contract, 140 yuan / ton for the June contract, and 140-150 yuan / ton for the June contract. The transaction was concentrated around 140-150 yuan / ton; entering the second period, the plate returned to the market, the downstream mining and buying mood weakened, and the rising water did not fall. Overall, today's market transactions have warmed up compared with yesterday, mainly due to downstream enterprises wait-and-see mood weakened, superimposed just need to buy, the overall transaction situation has improved.

The mainstream transaction of Guangdong zinc was 16440-16560 yuan / ton, and the quotation focused on the Shanghai zinc 2006 contract rising 20-40 yuan / ton, and the discount of 110 yuan / ton in Guangdong stock market was flat compared with the previous trading day. In the first trading session, futures prices continued to fall compared with yesterday, downstream bargain purchasing willingness strengthened, the price of the holder is relatively strong, but there is still room for price adjustment, and the purchase of traders in the market has increased, leading to market transactions. Kirin and Mongolia quoted water for the Shanghai zinc contract for June, which rose 30rel 50 yuan / ton, and Tiefeng rose 40yuan / ton. In the second trading period, the holder is more active in shipping, the quotation is slightly loose, but near delivery also limits the spot discount to the contract of the month, the overall market demand is more stable. Kirin and Mongolia quoted a price of 30 yuan / ton for the six-month contract for zinc in Shanghai and 20 yuan / ton for Tiefeng. Kirin, Mengzi, Tiefeng mainstream transaction in 16440-16560 yuan / ton.

The mainstream transaction of zinc ingots in Tianjin market was 16630-17840 yuan / ton, and that of ordinary brands was 16630-16760 yuan / ton. The contract for 2006 rose from 150 yuan / ton to 250 yuan / ton. Compared with Shanghai market, Tianjin market rose from 40 yuan / ton to 50 yuan / ton. Today, Shanghai zinc continued to fall, the spot market maintained the discount quotation, the quotation is more uniform, the ordinary brand lark newspaper in the 06 contract rose 160 yuan / ton, the red star newspaper in the 06 contract rose 210 yuan / ton, Chi Hong reported in the 06 contract rose 150 yuan / ton, the import KZ reported rose 150 yuan / ton to the 06 contract, the high price brand Zijin reported the June contract to rise near 250 yuan / ton. Zinc prices continued to fall today, traders quoted basically the same as yesterday, some brands have high prices, Tianjin market rumors will be 5000-6000 tons of goods will be delivered on Friday, will suppress the rising water; downstream, Tianjin spot prices continue to fall today, downstream delivery has been significantly better than yesterday. On the whole, the deal is better today. The transaction of zinc ingot is near 16580-16710 yuan / ton.

Tin: after the opening of US $15115 / ton today, there was little trading between early trading and noon trading in the Asian plate. At the end of the session, it rose slightly to US $15150 / ton and quickly fell to US $15025 / ton. As of 17: 30, the latest price of Lunxi was US $15075 / ton, showing a small negative line. The upper part of the entity is under pressure on the 20th moving average, and the support level near the integer level of 15000 US dollars / ton is tested below Lunxi. Tonight, you can pay attention to the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States during the week (10,000).

Shanghai tin 2007 contract last night after the opening of 130250 yuan / ton, the center of gravity moved down, and then until the close of night trading, Shanghai tin generally remained at the integer mark of 130000 yuan / ton shock finishing. After a small rally of 130250 yuan / ton at the beginning of trading this morning, Shanghai tin came under pressure again and went down to a daily low of 129150 yuan / ton. After that, the tin in Shanghai remained in the vicinity of 129700 yuan / ton. Finally, it closed at 129600 yuan / ton, showing a small negative line. The upper part of the entity is under pressure in the 5-day moving average, and the bottom is supported by the 10-day moving average. it is expected that the support below the Shanghai tin is located near the 20-day moving average of 127500 yuan / ton.

Spot market, today quoted 134000136000 yuan / ton. Within the day, some downstream enterprises have received goods, but most of them are still mainly in need of procurement. Shanghai tin spot market transaction atmosphere slightly warmed up. For Shanghai tin 2007 contract, Yunxi rising water is around 6000 yuan / ton, ordinary Yunzi rising water is 5000 yuan / ton, and small brand rising water is 4500 won 5000 yuan / ton.

Nickel: the Lunni sub-plate opened at US $12240 / ton today. At the beginning of the session, it slightly reached the 5-day moving average of US $12280 / t and then pressed down to US $12160 / ton. due to the temporary support of the 10 / 20 moving average at this position, Lenny immediately rebounded upwards. it reached $12315 / ton, the highest in the day. But after that, Lunni showed weakness again and shook down. As of 17PUR 47, Lunni temporarily closed at 12205 US dollars / ton, down 45 US dollars / ton, or 0.37%. Today Lunni continues the range shock trend, and the support of the 20-day moving average below is still clear. Pay attention to the number of jobless claims in the United States as of May 9 and the speeches of European Central Bank officials, pay attention to market sentiment and the guidance of the dollar index on metals, and test whether Lunni can hold the 20-day moving average of $12200 / tonne.

Today, the main contract of Shanghai Nickel 2007 opened at 101170 yuan / ton. After a brief probe, it fell under pressure to 100210 yuan / ton. However, the short did not make a further exploration of the lower 20-day moving average support, one after another after the reduction of Shanghai nickel re-red. At this time, the bulls also backed by the 10-day moving average to try to enter, so that Shanghai nickel probe as high as 101570 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, the long and short sides left the market one after another, but Shanghai nickel still ran smoothly above the daily average of 101000 yuan / ton, and finally closed at 101170 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan / ton, or 0.02%. Today's trend is the same as yesterday, the morning market down 20 EMA support rebounded, recorded a "V" trend, the entity is still running in the 5 / 10 moving average range, recorded a small negative column for the third day in a row, the range of fluctuations narrowed compared with yesterday. Daily positions decreased by 1701 to 86828, while trading volume decreased by 160000 to 560000. Due to the proximity of delivery, in the case of no change in the technical indicators, it is expected that Shanghai nickel will still adjust around the 5 / 10 moving average in the near future.

Today, SMM1 Electrolytic Nickel quoted 100350-101650 yuan / ton, the average price increased by 400 yuan / ton compared with yesterday. Today, Shanghai nickel price opened high after the pressure down, the second trading session returned to rise, once again out of the "V" shape trend. In the spot market, as delivery is approaching, Russian nickel holders are offering prices one after another today, and non-deliverable Russian nickel is also reported near Pingshui. Russian nickel warehouse receipts and deliverable Russian nickel spot report are up 50100 yuan / ton to the 2006 contract, and the transaction situation is not as good as yesterday. Jinchuan nickel to Shanghai nickel 2006 contract rose 1100-1200 yuan / ton, after the opening of the morning market, there are few transactions, the market is mostly waiting to see Jinchuan Company adjust prices, today's Shanghai ex-factory price of 102000 yuan / ton, Shanghai has a small number of shipments, but generally speaking, the delivery volume of traders is limited, so the rising water of the spot market is almost unchanged. Subsequently Jinchuan nickel reached a deal one after another, afternoon inquiry is still not prosperous, today's trading volume is not as good as yesterday. Nickel beans and yesterday's discount is the same as yesterday, the 2006 contract reported 800 yuan / ton.

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