SMM Evening Comments (May 14): Shanghai base metals mostly fell on concerns about coronavirus crisis

Published: May 14, 2020 18:47
SHFE nonferrous metals, except for aluminium and nickel, closed lower on Thursday, following after they opened mostly lower Wednesday, as concerns of the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic continued to grip investors.

SHANGHAI, May 14 (SMM) – SHFE nonferrous metals, except for aluminium and nickel, closed lower on Thursday, following after they opened mostly lower today, as concerns of the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic continued to grip investors.


US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday warned of “significant downside risks” from the coronavirus pandemic and suggested that the path ahead is “highly uncertain.”


Zinc fell the most with a drop of 1.2%. Copper shed 0.16%, lead slipped 0.93%, tin fell 0.41%, while aluminium added 1.05% and nickel climbed 0.2%. 


The ferrous complex traded in a mixed note as iron ore increased 1.09%, hot-rolled coil gained 0.33%, coke advanced 2.6%, while rebar eased 0.52%, and stainless steel went down 0.11%. 


East China’s Jiangxi province has introduced 16 measures to support the copper industry, including offering tax incentives, preferential electricity prices, and steps to expand copper consumption. The move offset part of the bearish sentiment as investors assessed the macroeconomic development.


Copper: The most-traded SHFE June contract managed to hold stable around 43,010 yuan/mt after loaded-up shorts weighed it to a session low of 42,800 yuan/mt. Departing long positions near closing sent the contract 0.16% lower on the day at 42,910 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE May and June contracts narrowed to around 150 yuan/mt. With continued support from the 20- and 60- day moving averages, the June contract is expected to test support from 43,000 yuan/mt tonight. 

Copper stocks in warehouses tracked by the London Metal Exchange jumped by the most in nearly three months on Thursday, as consumption beyond China has been hit hard by the COVID-19 lockdown restrictions.


Aluminium: The most-liquid SHFE July contract showed signs of breaking up the 60-day moving average above as it moved to a session high of 12,575 yuan/mt before ending up 1.05% higher on the day at 12,530 yuan/mt. SMM data showed that domestic social inventories of primary aluminium and aluminium billet continued to fall sharply this week, pointing to stable consumption. The price difference between the May and June contracts will be monitored as the May contract will finish its last trading day Friday. 


Zinc: The most-active SHFE July contract fell for the fourth consecutive day on the back of rising shorts, further giving up gains from the previous week. It slipped to a session low of 16,325 yuan/mt and closed 1.2% lower on the day at 16,430 yuan/mt. Ample domestic inventories may see the contract pulling back further tonight and support from the 40-day moving average will be watched. 


Nickel: The most-traded SHFE July contract again posted a V-shaped rebound, as it bounced back after dipped to an intraday low of 100,210 yuan/mt, ending the day 0.2% higher at 101,170 yuan/mt. The contract is expected to continue to trade rangebound between the five- and 10- day moving averages tonight. 


Lead: The most-active SHFE June contract slowed its downward trend and hovered weakly around the daily moving average, closing the day 0.93% lower on the day at 13,860 yuan/mt. Firm prices of battery scrap could offer some support to near-term lead prices. 


Tin: The most-liquid SHFE July contract traded lower on Thursday, ending at 129,600 yuan/mt, 0.41% lower on the day, following an intraday low of 129,150 yuan/mt. Support from the 20-day moving average, or 127,500 yuan/mt will be monitored tonight. 

 

 

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or to learn more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn
For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn
Related News
US Nonfarm Payrolls exceeded expectations, the US dollar index surged, copper prices fell under pressure, and spot discounts narrowed.
1 min ago
US Nonfarm Payrolls exceeded expectations, the US dollar index surged, copper prices fell under pressure, and spot discounts narrowed.
Read More
US Nonfarm Payrolls exceeded expectations, the US dollar index surged, copper prices fell under pressure, and spot discounts narrowed.
US Nonfarm Payrolls exceeded expectations, the US dollar index surged, copper prices fell under pressure, and spot discounts narrowed.
[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Last Friday (June 5), US May non-farm payrolls data significantly exceeded expectations, and March and April non-farm payrolls data were revised up. Market expectations for a US Fed rate hike within the year intensified, lifting the US dollar index back above the 100 mark and exerting significant downward pressure on copper prices. According to SMM, after the decline in copper prices, end-user dip-buying sentiment improved, with active price fixing. Meanwhile, suppliers' willingness to sell at low prices weakened. Today, the Shanghai spot copper discount narrowed noticeably from earlier levels; orders increased markedly from last Friday, and overall market trading activity picked up. Currently, domestic standard-quality copper is offered at a discount of 40 yuan/mt to 20 yuan/mt, while non-registered copper is offered at a discount of 270 yuan/mt to 220 yuan/mt.
1 min ago
Overnight LME copper plunged nearly 2.8%, with bears increasing their positions; the pullback in copper prices stimulated rigid demand, and spot discounts narrowed [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary]
29 mins ago
Overnight LME copper plunged nearly 2.8%, with bears increasing their positions; the pullback in copper prices stimulated rigid demand, and spot discounts narrowed [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary]
Read More
Overnight LME copper plunged nearly 2.8%, with bears increasing their positions; the pullback in copper prices stimulated rigid demand, and spot discounts narrowed [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary]
Overnight LME copper plunged nearly 2.8%, with bears increasing their positions; the pullback in copper prices stimulated rigid demand, and spot discounts narrowed [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary]
SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Last Friday night, LME copper opened at $13,788/mt, touched a high of $13,803/mt at the beginning of the session, then the copper price center continuously moved downward, dipping to $13,499.5/mt near the end of the session, and finally settled at $13,517/mt, a decline of 2.78%. Trading volume reached 25,200 lots, and open interest was 273,000 lots, increasing by 1,576 lots compared to the previous trading day, indicating an increase in bearish positions. Last Friday night, the most-traded LME copper contract 2607 opened at 104,790 yuan/mt, rose to 105,000 yuan/mt at the start, then fluctuated downward throughout the session, dipping to 103,600 yuan/mt near the end, and finally settled at 103,800 yuan/mt, a decline of 1.84%. Trading volume reached 62,000 lots, and open interest was 167,000 lots, decreasing by 6,309 lots compared to the previous trading day, indicating a reduction in bullish positions.
29 mins ago
Peru Presidential Runoff Raises Uncertainty for Copper Sector
33 mins ago
Peru Presidential Runoff Raises Uncertainty for Copper Sector
Read More
Peru Presidential Runoff Raises Uncertainty for Copper Sector
Peru Presidential Runoff Raises Uncertainty for Copper Sector
Peru will hold its presidential runoff on June 7, drawing close attention from the mining industry. As the world's second-largest copper producer, any shift in mining policy could have significant implications for global copper supply. Investors are watching proposals related to environmental regulations and resource taxation. The election outcome may influence future copper project development and investment decisions.
33 mins ago
SMM Evening Comments (May 14): Shanghai base metals mostly fell on concerns about coronavirus crisis - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)