Comment on the spot Exchange Day of SMM basic Metals on May 13

SMM, 13 May:

Copper: today's Yapanlun copper short opened at $5199 / tonne, immediately after the opening by short pressure to the day's lowest point of $5189 / tonne, and then copper prices hit bottom rebound, the day to maintain a volatile upward trend, in the end of the Asian plate hit a daily high of $5240 / tonne. Into the European session, Lun copper turned down, down about $30 / ton. At 16: 30, Lun copper closed down $14, or 0.27 per cent, at $5215 a tonne. Geneva copper opened low and rose slowly, partly filling the gap today, mainly due to a slight easing of concerns about the second outbreak, while British GDP and industrial output data were slightly better than expected, superimposed by news of blocked exports of Zambian electrolytic copper in Africa. Copper prices rebounded. In European trading, oil prices fell in the short term to refresh a new one-week low, dragging down copper prices for a short period of time. At present, Lun copper is negative, but below it is supported by 10-day moving average and 20-day moving average, and the space for Lun copper to fall is limited. In the evening, watch the US April PPI data and the changes in EIA crude oil inventories in the week ended May 8 to test whether Lunchu can hold the $5200 / tonne mark.

Today, the main force of Shanghai copper jump opened low at 42850 yuan / ton in the morning, and was suppressed by bears to the lowest point of 42680 yuan / ton in the day after the opening of the session. At this time, the bulls came into the market one after another to drive the copper price to rebound more than 200 yuan / ton, and then in the range of 42800-42940 yuan / ton shock finishing, midday closed at 42900 yuan / ton. Opening in the afternoon, the empty more into pull up the price of copper, as high as 43120 yuan / ton. Near the end of the day, copper prices fell slightly to close at 43060 yuan / ton, down 220 yuan / ton, down 0.51%. The monthly contract of Shanghai Copper today reduced its position by another 5850 hands to 12000 hands, or about 62000 tons, while the copper warehouse receipt daily of the previous issue shows that the current number of copper warehouse receipts is 65916 tons, and the position has returned to the safe range. At the same time, the position in the far-month contract has been increased at different levels. Intraday 05-06 contract spread narrowed slightly to about 200 yuan / ton, and is expected to further narrow in the next two trading days. Copper jumped short in Shanghai during the day, mainly due to heightened concerns about the possibility of a second outbreak. South Korea has a cluster of infections, U. S. infectious disease expert Fauci also said that premature lifting of the blockade measures could lead to a further outbreak of the new crown epidemic, market risk preference to cool down the price of copper. There was good news on fundamentals. Zambia's temporary closure of the Zantan border due to the epidemic forced delays in copper exports via Tanzania, investors' expectations of a copper glut eased, and copper prices gained momentum to make up for today's shortfall. At present, Shanghai copper closed negative, KDJ curve showed downward crossover, but the bottom is still 10, 60 days moving average support, long and short forces continue to play at the 43000 level. At night, waiting for the outer plate guidance, test whether Shanghai copper can stand at the 43000 yuan / ton level.

Today, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot to the current month contract discount 20 yuan / ton ~ flat water, flat water copper transaction price 43020 yuan / ton ~ 43130 yuan / ton, Shengshui copper transaction price 43030 yuan / ton ~ 43140 yuan / ton. Shanghai copper callback collated in 43000 yuan / ton, a decline of more than 500yuan / ton, the monthly price difference narrowed to about 200yuan / ton compared with yesterday, the morning market holder immediately reported discount water 20 yuan / ton ~ flat water, good copper flat water near, Pingshui copper discount 20 yuan / ton, the disk fell to 43000 yuan / near, the willingness to receive goods at low prices increased significantly, Pingshui copper can be moved up to 10 yuan / ton, the popularity of good copper is not as good as flat copper, basically stable in the flat water line. The quotation is limited, and the wet copper quotation fluctuates in the narrow range of 60 ~ 50 yuan / ton today. Today, the monthly difference has narrowed significantly, the willingness of holders to sell has weakened, the discount has narrowed rapidly, approaching delivery, the activity of traders has increased, copper futures have also attracted downstream bargain replenishment after falling, and transactions today continue to show a gradual improvement over the previous two days. As the position of the current month contract gradually returns to the safe range, the reduction range of the month after the week will gradually narrow, the price difference between months will gradually narrow, and the large discount state under the disk will no longer exist. In the afternoon, the low level rose nearly 100 yuan, the price difference between months was stable at 200 yuan / ton, the quotation also tended to be stable at the same time, Pingshui copper discount 10 yuan / ton, good copper flat water, almost no price difference between brands, the transaction atmosphere was restrained compared with the morning, the transaction slowly rose to 43140-43200 yuan / ton.

Aluminum: aluminum opened at $1478.5 / ton in the morning, maintaining a narrow range of fluctuations during the Asian session, with a price difference of less than $10 / ton and a high of only $1481 / tonne. After entering the European trading session, the volatility of aluminum prices increased, and the shock fell back to a daily low of $1471 / ton, refreshing the lowest point since April 9. Trading volume decreased by 6815 hands to 3378 hands, position increased by 10877 hands to 841000 hands, closed in the small negative line. The center of gravity is lower than yesterday, below all moving averages, and the third line of daily KDJ continues to face down. Due to the Federal Reserve released a "negative interest rate" may signal, the dollar intraday strong, outer plate metal under full pressure, Lun aluminum in its own weak state, closed down slightly today, as of 17:15, Lun aluminum closed at 1475 US dollars / ton, down 5 US dollars / ton, down 0.34%, is expected to continue to be weak and volatile in the evening, upward pressure is greater. In the evening, I continued to pay attention to the changes in the dollar index and surrounding metals.

The Shanghai aluminum main force 2007 contract opened at 12350 yuan / ton in the morning. At the beginning of the day, the main Shanghai aluminum contract opened with more than a thousand short positions, and the low position directly leaked to 12285 yuan / tonne. Then it repaired the decline from the low level and rose slowly all the way up. To the end of the day, it closed at the highest point of 12525 yuan / ton. It closed at 12495 yuan / ton, up 80 yuan / ton, or 0.64%. Trading volume increased by 34457 hands to 119000 hands, position increased by 1614 hands to 149000 hands, closed at the small yang line. The center of gravity is still below the 60-day moving average and is expected to continue to have limited upstream space in the evening. Pay attention to the change of long short position in the evening.

The aluminum range fluctuated in the early afternoon, but the spot price difference was large. In the morning, the spot price in Shanghai Wuxi area is between 12710-12730 yuan / ton, the holder can ship the goods, the middleman is more hesitant to receive the goods, the two sides are relatively hesitant to receive the goods, the spot price in the market after 10: 15 begins to concentrate on 12740-12780 yuan / ton, the spot discount is between 10 yuan and 10 yuan / ton, and a large household buys normally today. on the whole, trading between traders today is more general, and the early shippers are obviously more than those who receive the goods. In the second stage of the transaction, there are more consignees than shippers. Downstream today to receive goods better than yesterday, as the sharp fall in aluminum prices stimulated its enthusiasm for receiving goods. The overall transaction in East China is better today. In the afternoon, the center of gravity of aluminum floated, a small number of holders quoted in the vicinity of 12830 yuan / ton, the disk remained near the flat water, only a small number of transactions between traders, few downstream.

Lead: within the day, Lun lead opened at $1625.5 / ton, Asia time, Lun lead weakened to $1620 / ton support platform, slightly rebounded, and then around $1627.5 / ton shock, entered the European period, Lun lead continued to shock market, as of 16: 51, Lun lead temporarily closed at $1625 / ton, down $5.50 / ton, down 0.34%. Lun lead temporarily closed the small negative line, running to the bottom of each moving average, taking into account the overall trend of non-ferrous metals in the outer plate is weak, expected to run lead at night or test the lower $1620 / ton platform support.

Within the day, the Shanghai lead main force 2006 contract opened at 13990 yuan / ton, at the beginning of the day, the profit left the market, Shanghai lead slightly weakened, the center of gravity dropped, and then Shanghai lead basically around 13900 yuan / ton front line operation, finally closed at 13885 yuan / ton, position reduced 1156 hands to 24927 hands, down 295 yuan / ton, down 2.08%. Shanghai lead closed in the negative line, anti-phagocytosis every other day Zhongyang line, and fell back to the previous shock interval, and the trend of each EMA slowed down, because near the delivery day, superimposed lead ingot low inventory background, Shanghai lead is difficult to fall below the lower limit of the shock interval in the near future, and the space for weakness is limited.

Shanghai market Jinsha lead 1423514255 yuan / ton, Shanghai lead 2006 contract price 280300 yuan / ton, Wuxi market south lead 14155 yuan / ton, Shanghai lead 2006 contract 200 yuan / ton quotation. Overnight lead basically vomited one day before the increase, the holder quotation water does not change temporarily, the downstream maintains on-demand procurement, and tends to the better price of recycled lead, bulk market transaction activity is general.

Guangdong market South China lead 14050 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead 50 yuan / ton quotation; Henan Yuguang, Wanyang and other smelters to Jiaochang single, Jinli, Wanyang, Minshan 13850 13920 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 80 yuan / ton (some traders source); Hunan Shuikoushan 14000 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead water (traders); Hunan Jingui 13850 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 150 yuan / ton Jiang Copper 13980 yuan / ton, 20 yuan / ton discount to the average price of SMM1# lead. Yunnan small factory 13700 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 300 yuan / ton. Lead prices fell back, smelters still maintain discount shipments, but today some shippers slightly slowed the pace of shipments, trading improved today, mainly due to lower prices.

Zinc: zinc opened at US $1986.5 / ton in Geneva and opened low at the beginning of the day, with a daily average of around US $1980 / ton, followed by the opening of zinc in Shanghai, which fell by US $1975 / tonne. After finding support, it rose back to a narrow range of US $1980 / tonne, with a operating range of no more than US $10 / tonne. It was flat in the afternoon, and Lun Zinc fell under pressure to $1966 / tonne, then rebounded slightly to close at $1972 / tonne at 16: 25, down $17.50 / tonne, or 0.88 per cent. Geneva zinc temporarily closed the small negative line, the overall operation in the 510 moving average channel, the KDJ index is about to become a dead fork, indicating that the downward trend of zinc is more obvious, the slow restart of overseas economy still has a relatively limited boost to zinc consumption, and the decline in LME zinc stocks is very small, reflecting that demand is still weak. Pay attention to the disturbance caused by the dynamics of the Federal Reserve at night.

Intraday Shanghai zinc main force 2007 contract opened at 16630 yuan / ton, Shanghai zinc continued the night decline at the beginning of the day, falling 16440 yuan / ton continuously, then the 10-day moving average support strength appeared, Shanghai zinc returned to 16620 yuan / ton, under pressure daily moving average operation. Entering the European trading session, Shanghai zinc fell back to 16550 yuan / ton near to find support, two attempts to return to break through the daily average line failed to make a line, closed down 16615 yuan / ton, down 255yuan / ton, down 1.51%, trading volume increased 48666 hands to 142000 hands, position reduced 4567 hands to 122000 hands. Within days, Shanghai zinc recorded three consecutive negative, with the shadow line down the 10-day moving average, MACD index to become a dead fork, indicating that Shanghai zinc upward weakness. Supply-side production cuts are expected to be digested, but the recovery in real consumption is limited, coupled with market inventories are still high, long confidence weakened out of the market. Pay attention to the disturbance of the Fed news to the macro sentiment of the market at night.

Shanghai zinc mainstream transaction in 16690-16780 yuan / ton, Shuangyan transaction in 16700-16790 yuan / ton, imported zinc transaction in 16660 yuan / ton, zinc general price of 120 yuan / ton in June, 130 yuan / ton in June, 80 yuan / ton in May, and 16620-16710 yuan / ton in May. The market import zinc stock is larger, the trade market supply is sufficient, this morning the market mainstream transaction concentrates in to the SMM net average price level, follows the quotation morning market to the 2006 contract rises 130 million 140 yuan / ton, the high price has the transaction, after approaching the first time close, the market spot water goes down, the sell goods increases, follows the market mainstream quotes to the 2006 contract rises 120 yuan / ton; Entering the second period, the market quotation is relatively stable, the holder mainstream reported to the 2006 contract up 120 yuan 130 yuan / ton; today's market import zinc quotation is still more, the market mainstream to SMC, Spain, Peru, Harbin zinc-based, traders trading in general, mostly shipment-based, downstream prices fell today, bargain procurement, but the purchase volume is still more cautious, mostly worried about the further decline in zinc prices.

The price difference between Ningbo and Shanghai ordinary brands increased from 20 yuan / ton to 30 yuan / ton, and the price difference between Ningbo and Shanghai ordinary brands increased from 20 yuan / ton to 30 yuan / ton. The mainstream transaction of Ningbo was sold at 16690 murals 16800 yuan / ton, and the contract water for ordinary brands of ordinary brands in Ningbo was raised to around 130mur150 yuan / ton for 2006. Zinc price pullback, refineries and holders are slightly reluctant to sell, the market supply circulation is slightly scarce. In the first session of the morning, the holder turned to quote for the June contract. The Western Mining News raised the water by 130 yuan / ton on the June contract, Hualianbao by 140 yuan / ton on the June contract, Tiefeng by 150 yuan / ton on the June contract, Huize News by 160 yuan / ton on the June contract, and Kirin Morning News by 170 yuan / ton on the June contract. In the morning, the transaction of low-priced brands has improved, Kirin Huize and other quotations have been gradually reduced to 140-150 yuan / ton for the June contract. Overall, due to the zinc price correction, downstream enterprises are willing to buy when they fall, and the trading atmosphere in today's market has warmed up compared with yesterday.

The mainstream transaction of Guangdong zinc was 16570-16680 yuan / ton, and the quotation focused on 10-30 yuan / ton of Shanghai zinc 2006 contract. The discount of 110 yuan / ton in Guangdong stock market was 10 yuan / ton less than that of the previous trading day. In the first trading session, futures prices opened low and went low, the holding price of the holder was strong, the overall market quotation was higher than yesterday, the downstream bargain inquiry increased, and the market transaction was OK. Kirin, Mengzi, Tiefeng quoted water for the Shanghai zinc contract in June to rise 1550 yuan / ton. The second trading session, prices rebounded, downstream demand weakened, traders to maintain the value of normal shipments, part of the realization of active price adjustment shipment, spot rising water slightly lower than the first trading session, overall, today's downstream demand is better than yesterday. Kirin, Mengzi, Huize and Tiefeng are quoted for the June contract to raise water by 10 murals of 20 yuan / ton to Pingshui. Yi Qilin, Mengzi, Tiefeng mainstream transaction in 16570-16680 yuan / ton.

The mainstream transaction of zinc ingots in Tianjin market was 16720-17930 yuan / ton, and that of ordinary brands was 16720-16850 yuan / ton. The contract for 2006 rose by 140 yuan / ton to 230 yuan / ton. Compared with Shanghai stock market, Tianjin market decreased from 60 yuan / ton to 40 yuan / ton. Today, zinc in Shanghai fell sharply, and the spot market maintained a discount quotation. The quotation was more uniform. The ordinary brand lark reported a rise of 150 yuan / ton on the 06 contract, and the Hongli newspaper reported a rise of 2000 yuan / ton on the 06 contract. Chihong reported 150 yuan / ton on the 06 contract, 140 yuan / ton on the fourth Ring News on 06 contract, and 160 yuan / ton on imported KZ contract. High-priced brand Zijin on the June contract rose 230 yuan / ton near. Zinc prices fell sharply today, and traders' quotations were basically the same as yesterday. It is rumored in the Tianjin market that a large number of goods were delivered on Friday, resulting in a weakening of traders' willingness to raise prices. Downstream, Tianjin spot prices fell sharply today, and downstream delivery was slightly better than yesterday, but the overall transaction is still general. On the whole, deals have been done today. The transaction of zinc ingot is near 1667016800 yuan / ton.

Tin: after the opening of 15300 US dollars / ton today, the Asian plate fell rapidly to 15175 US dollars / ton due to the domestic Shanghai tin market trend at the beginning of the session. Then Asia afternoon to the beginning of the European plate, Lunxi bottom rebounded to show a concussive upward trend, as of 17: 00, Lunxi's latest price of $15225 / ton, showing a small negative line, the physical part of the lower part of the 5-20 moving average support, is expected to support below the 20-day moving average of $15100 / ton. This evening, we can take a look at the annual rate of US PPI in April (%) and the change in EIA crude oil stocks in the week ended May 8 (10,000 barrels).

Shanghai tin main force 2007 contract last night 131590 yuan / ton high after the opening of the overall trend to suppress and then rise. After the opening of 130120 yuan / ton in early trading today, at the beginning of the session, affected by the increase in short positions, the market fell to a daily low of 129110 yuan / ton. Subsequently, the long position in Shanghai rebounded and maintained a shock finishing near the daily average of 130200 yuan / ton. Finally, it closed at 130250 yuan / ton, down 40 yuan / ton, down 0.03%, trading volume 43078 hands, position volume 31496 hands, an increase of 448 hands. Today, Shanghai tin closed with a negative line, the physical part is supported by the 5-day moving average, the lower shadow line is located near the 10-day moving average, and it is expected that the support below the 10-day tin moving average is near the 10-day moving average of 129000 yuan / ton.

Spot market, today quoted 134000-136000 yuan / ton, some downstream enterprises within the day just need to purchase, traders are relatively low willingness to receive goods. The overall transaction atmosphere in the Shanghai-tin spot market is generally weak. Shanghai tin 2007 contract set Yunxi rising water near 6000 yuan / ton, ordinary cloud word rising water 5000-5500 yuan / ton, small brand rising water 4500-5000 yuan / ton.

Nickel: today Lunni Asia opened at $12280 / tonne, after the opening shock downward, as low as $12135 / tonne by the 20-day moving average support, began to stabilize the rebound, back up to $12350 / tonne after the pressure. After that, it ran in the morning market opening position of $12280 / ton, shock adjustment. After entering the European session, disturbed by the decline in industrial data in the euro area, the center of gravity of Lunni shook down again. At 17: 50 in the month, Lunni closed down $30, or 0.24 per cent, at $12250 a tonne. Lunni day around the daily average width fluctuations, trapped in the $12200-12300 / ton range shock pattern will continue. Pay attention to the trend of crude oil in the evening and the guidance of macro news such as the annual rate of PPI in the United States in April.

Shanghai nickel, due to yesterday's CPI, PPI data is weak, and overnight U. S. stocks closed down, today's basic metals generally opened low downward. The main contract of Shanghai Nickel 2007 in the morning market opened at 100990 yuan / ton today and came under pressure. After a brief stay of US $100500 / ton, short sellers continued to increase their positions and suppress it, making Shanghai Nickel fall below the 100, 000 mark. After that, the bulls tried to buy cheaply, and Shanghai nickel hovered near the 100, 000 pass, with a minimum of 99720 yuan per ton. After the second period of the morning market, the short began to reduce warehouses and leave the market, and Shanghai nickel quickly returned to recover the decline, reaching as high as 101680 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, the market was still dominated by the reduction of short-term funds in the day. Although it once fell below the daily moving average, it still repaired the first line of 101100 yuan / ton in late trading, and finally closed at 101140 yuan / ton, down 0.6 percent from yesterday's settlement price. Today, out of the V-shaped trend, after yesterday again recorded a small negative column, but the entity is still running in the 5 / 10 moving average, the lower long shadow line touched the 20-day moving average, testing that the position has a strong support, the technical indicators have not changed. But the Indonesian government has recently raised taxes on mining companies, and there has been a lot of speculation on the supply side, and Russian nickel producers are also expected to have a glut this year. However, in the absence of actual news, the nickel market is still adjusted with wide shocks. Pay attention to whether Shanghai Nickel can continue to stick to the 10-day moving average at night.

Today, SMM1 Electrolytic Nickel quoted 99900-101300 yuan / ton, the average price decreased by 2150 yuan / ton compared with yesterday. Today's nickel morning market fell sharply, once fell below 100000, and then gradually recovered the decline, out of the "V" trend. Spot, the discount is stable than yesterday, enquiries and transactions are better than yesterday. Russo Nickel to Shanghai Nickel 2006 contract quoted 50 yuan / ton to rise 50 yuan / ton, the mainstream transaction price near Pingshui, the morning market price unilateral downward, a small number of traders tried to rise water quotation, but the transaction is not good after the gradual pullback. In addition, some traders in the market have moved their positions to Yuanyue, offering 150 yuan / ton for 07 contracts. Jinchuan nickel, Shanghai nickel 2006 contract rose 1000-1100 yuan / ton, the same as yesterday, the transaction has also improved. Today Jinchuan ex-factory price was quoted at 101200 yuan / ton, but due to the second trading session rose too fast, manufacturers appropriate shipments, so low-rise water supply did not have an impact on the market. Today, the contract between Nickel Bean and Shanghai Nickel 2006 is quoted at 800RMB / ton.

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