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Comment on the spot Exchange Day of SMM basic Metals on May 11
May 11,2020 18:50CST
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Source:SMM
Comment on the spot Exchange Day of SMM basic Metals on May 11
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM, 11 May:

Copper: Yapanlun copper opened as high as $5309 / ton today, up $10 / ton after the opening. After the opening of Shanghai copper, copper rose rapidly, reaching as high as $5370 / ton. At this high long profit out of the market, superimposed short positions, copper prices all the way down. Lun Copper accelerated its decline at the start of the European session, falling to $5280 / ton, giving up all its gains in the day, unchanged from yesterday's closing price. At 17: 00, Lun copper closed up $4.50, or 0.09 per cent, at $5285 a tonne. Copper rose in Shanghai during the day as global macro optimism continued to pick up. Australia and Britain have joined the ranks of countries that have lifted the ban on epidemic prevention, with a view to restarting the economy. Optimistic expectations of an economic recovery have effectively spurred a rise in copper prices. In the afternoon, the monthly rate and annual rate fell more than expected in Italy after the March quarterly adjustment, making the biggest drop in history, and the price of copper fell sharply. The fundamental news has not changed significantly. At present, Lun copper receives yin, at the level of 5280 US dollars / ton. On the technical side, it is still good for copper prices, Lun copper is in the uplink channel, below there is a 60-day moving average support. Pay attention to the remarks made by ECB Executive Council officials and Bank of England members in the evening to test whether Lun Bronze can rise again.

Today, the main force of Shanghai copper opened in the morning at 43560 yuan / ton, after the opening of the long position copper price straight up to 43800 yuan / ton, and maintained the rally, rushed to the day's highest point of 43950 yuan / ton, and then around 43860 yuan / ton to maintain a narrow range of volatility. Before noon, many flat copper prices gave up their gains, closing at 43750 yuan / ton at noon. Copper prices continued to fall in early afternoon trading, giving up all day gains and closing at 43500 yuan per tonne, up 0.39 per cent or 0.39 per cent. Shanghai copper main contract within the day to increase positions by 3004 hands, to 116000 hands, long and short sides to varying degrees to increase positions; trading volume decreased by 6101 hands, to 73000 hands. Near the month of exchange, the long and short sides accelerated the reduction of positions, today Shanghai Copper contract reduction of 7375 hands, to 25505 hands, mainly for short positions, 0506 contract spread expanded to 210 yuan / ton. Shanghai Copper 06 and 07 contracts increased their positions by more than 5000 hands. Within the day, the main force of Shanghai copper rushed higher, mainly due to the continuous improvement of the macro environment. China's central bank yesterday released the first quarter Monetary Policy implementation report, sending signals to the outside world that more stimulus policies may be introduced to support the economic recovery. Europe and the United States have restarted their economies one after another, Australia announced the gradual lifting of the "three stages", the United Kingdom issued a road map to fight the epidemic, and plans to gradually relax the relevant measures. Countries have relaxed restrictions on epidemic prevention measures, superimposed on the relaxation of Sino-US relations, and market risk appetite has further warmed up. Today, the main force of Shanghai copper rose rapidly, and then upward faced with the early short jump gap, short profit leave, short test short, rising momentum is insufficient, copper price performance for high fall. Technically, there is still room to rise, with a short-term target of 44000 yuan per ton.

Today, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot price for the current month contract up 30 yuan / ton ~ 90 yuan / ton, flat water copper transaction price 44080 yuan / ton ~ 44160 yuan / ton, Shengshui copper transaction price 44090 yuan / ton ~ 44180 yuan / ton. Shanghai copper continued to rebound, and the morning market rose rapidly to break through the 44000 yuan / integer mark. The opening spot quotation rose near 100 yuan / ton, but due to the continuous rebound in the market and the expansion of the monthly price spread caused by the rapid closing of positions in the same month to more than 200 yuan / ton, the holder's willingness to exchange cash has been greatly enhanced, and it is difficult to maintain a strong and rapid decline in the rising water. At about 10:00, the quotation has dropped to 50 to 60 yuan per ton, but it is still difficult to buy, and the overall transaction is weak. Once again, the rising water dropped directly to 40 yuan / ton for good copper and 30 yuan / ton for flat copper. The transaction gradually showed improvement. The wet method quotation has gone from 30 murals 40 yuan / ton in the morning market to a discount, and it was as low as 20 yuan / ton in the second trading session. Near the end of the afternoon, wet copper has been quoted as a discount of 50 yuan / ton. Pingshui copper in flat water ~ water 10 yuan / ton, good copper water 10 ~ 20 yuan / ton. This week approaching delivery, the monthly price spread has expanded to 200 yuan / ton, rising water has been difficult to top, the exchange of goods dumped greatly, the willingness to trade speculation decreased, downstream fear of heights, supply over demand state highlights the spot rising water may quickly slide to the discount pattern before delivery this week. In the afternoon, the market fell back at a high level, gave up the intraday increase, returned to the first line of 43750 yuan / ton at the opening of the morning market, accelerated the closing of the contract in that month, and the price difference was maintained at about 210yuan / ton every other month. The holder continued to lower the quotation in order to be able to cash smoothly. Flat copper has fully shown the discount quotation, but it is still difficult to attract buyers. The flat copper quotation is 20 yuan ~ flat, and the good copper price is flat ~ up 20 yuan / ton. The transaction price fell back to 43740 yuan / ton.

Aluminum: aluminum opened at $1492 / ton in the morning, with a high of $1500 / ton at the beginning of the day, but strong resistance at the level of $1500 / tonne. Then the high level fluctuated and fell back. After entering the European trading session, it fell to a intraday low of $1487.5 / ton. As of 18:05, aluminum rebounded to a low level of $1494 / ton, up $2 / ton, or 0.13%, closing at the small yang line, with the center of gravity floating above the 5-day moving average. The third line of the daily KDJ has been raised, and it is expected to continue to test the upper level in the evening. Continue to pay attention to the changes in the dollar index and macro trading atmosphere in the evening.

Shanghai aluminum main force 2007 contract 12455 yuan / ton in the morning, at the beginning of the day through the two Changyang line to touch 12560 yuan / ton, continue to perform weakly, and then around 12535 yuan / ton throughout the day to make a narrow concussion, the upper and lower space is less than 40 yuan / ton, the end of the day hit the day's high point 12570 yuan / ton, closed at 12535 yuan / ton, up 105 yuan / ton, up 0.84%, trading volume decreased 21070 to 83909 hands, Position reduced by 1586 hands to 142000 hands, closed in the small positive line, the center of gravity is below the 60-day moving average, the daily MACD red line is shortened, it is expected that there is greater resistance to 12700 yuan / ton in the short term. Today, the monthly difference between the 2005 and 2006 contracts widened to around 240 yuan / tonne at one point, and the Back structure expanded further, focusing on the changes in long short positions in contracts in the following month.

Aluminum shock went up in the early afternoon. Shanghai Wuxi market spot price first suppressed and then rose, the holder quotation concentrated in 13000-13020 yuan / ton, the spot price rose 180 yuan / ton compared with last Friday, the plate rose between 70-90 yuan / ton. Today, the holder of the shipment is more active, the middleman received the goods normally, a large household normally carried out the procurement plan, the buyer and seller can deal fairly well, but because the aluminum is stronger, the actual transaction discount has dropped significantly compared with the previous two days. Downstream today to buy goods on demand, due to the sharp rise in aluminum prices, the willingness to replenish goods is not strong. Afternoon aluminum interval shock, the holder quoted in the vicinity of 13010 yuan / ton, the disk water rose about 70 yuan / ton, the transaction is very few.

Lead: during the day, Lun lead opened at US $1645 / ton. In the Asian session, Lun lead was consolidated along the daily moving average. In the afternoon, short-sellers continued to leave the market, Lun lead shock pulled up, entering the European session, Lun lead once climbed to US $1678 / ton. As of 1615, Lun lead temporarily closed at US $1671.5 / ton, up 25.5 US dollars / ton, or 1.55%. Lun lead temporarily closed in the sun line, rose along the 5-day moving average, and opened the upward channel, taking into account the decline of other non-ferrous metals, material Lun lead continued to strengthen the pressure, at night to pay attention to Lun lead can stand firm 40-day moving average.

Within days, the Shanghai lead main force 2006 contract opened at 13815 yuan / ton, at the beginning of the day, Shanghai lead pressure daily averages, and around 13835 yuan / ton shock, as a result of 5, 10 days average line bonding to form a strong support, Shanghai lead shock platform moved up to 13875 yuan / ton above the daily average, near the end of the day, Shanghai lead once touched 13915 yuan / ton, finally closed at 13895 yuan / ton, position reduced by 931 hands to 24460 hands, down 25 yuan / ton, down 0.18%. Shanghai lead newspaper closed long shadow Xiao Yin line, although after the European period, Lun lead strengthened, but Shanghai lead wants to break through the upper 60-day moving average is more difficult, from the basic point of view, the new production in early May recycled lead enterprises are basically step-by-step, supply pressure may appear, however, lead ingot social inventory still does not appear inflection point, superimposed waste battery price is easy to rise and fall, the main force of Shanghai lead in the near future is still mainly consolidation, up and down space is limited.

Shanghai market Jinsha lead 14105-14145 yuan / ton, Shanghai lead 2006 contract price 260-300 yuan / ton, Wuxi market south lead 14095-14125 yuan / ton, Shanghai lead 2006 contract 250-280 yuan / ton quotation. Lead weak decline, and due to the spot market circulation supply increase, primary lead and recycled lead factory shipment discount expansion (to SMM1# lead average price), the downstream just need to favor this kind of supply, the holder quotes the water to cut by half compared with last week, still obtains the partial transaction.

South China lead in Guangdong market is 14100 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead is up 50 yuan / ton. Henan Yuguang, Wanyang and other smelters are mainly Jiaochang single, Jinli, Wanyang 14000 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 30 yuan / ton (traders); Hunan Shuikoushan 14100 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead rose 50 yuan / ton; Hunan Jingui 13950 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 100 yuan / ton. Jiang copper 14150 yuan / ton, SMM1# lead average price flat water quotation. Yunnan small factory 13800 yuan 13850 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 200 yuan 250 yuan / ton quotation. Today, the price of loose orders in the market continues to fall, and trading in the primary lead market is light, and the market is dominated by recycled lead trading.

Zinc: zinc in Geneva was opened at US $2010 / ton, which rose at the beginning of the day. The center of gravity moved up to a narrow range near US $2025 / ton, with a high of US $2028 / ton, and the amplitude widened slightly in the afternoon. By 15: 50, Zinc closed up US $2019.5 / ton, up 17 US dollars / ton, or 0.85%. Lun Zinc recorded three Lianyang, the current overseas restart of the economy is still effective to boost the external disk, internal and external prices have been revised down, in the evening Lun Zinc may be high finishing operation, 2000 US dollars / ton integer gate will stand firm.

Within the day, the main 2007 contract of Shanghai zinc opened at 16925 yuan / ton, and the bullish positions were suppressed by short positions at the beginning of the day. After pulling up, Shanghai zinc slowly moved down to a narrow range around the daily average line of 16880 yuan / ton. After entering Duoping in the afternoon, Shanghai zinc fell again to a low of 16815 yuan / ton, and finally closed down 16830 yuan / ton, down 110yuan / ton, or 0.65%. The trading volume decreased by 34373 lots, and the position increased by 5813 lots to 123000 lots. Shanghai zinc suspended the rise to make an adjustment, closed a small negative column, but the accumulation of zinc social inventory is not obvious, highlighting consumer resilience, superimposed supply-side support, the daily zinc price gap widened again from June to August, and the zinc adjustment is expected to be limited.

The mainstream trading of zinc in shanghai was 17030copyright 17060 yuan / ton, while that of Shuangyan and Chihong was 17050ly17070 yuan / ton. Shuangyan and Chihong quoted a quotation of 100 yuan per ton in May for rising water. Shuangyan and Chihong quoted a price of 100 yuan per ton in May, and the mainstream transaction of zinc in Shanghai was 16960 million yuan. 16990 yuan / ton. Shanghai zinc 2005 contract low rebounded, the morning market closed at 16765 yuan / ton. The zinc price is high in the day, the smelter shipments are normal, the traders are mainly shipping, the domestic price in the morning market is about 100-110 yuan / ton, or the average price / average price is-5, the transaction activity is higher on the basis of the net average price, and then some traders report that the water 80 shipment is better, other holders follow the adjustment, and the domestic quotation is lowered to 90-100 yuan / ton. And in the second trading session, it was further adjusted to about 100 yuan / ton of Shengshui 80, mainly trading by traders. And downstream continues to fear heights wait-and-see, even if passive purchase is only do just need to purchase, affected by the following tour as the main audience Shuangyan, import quotation continues to lower than last Friday, but the transaction is still mediocre. Overall trading during the day was broadly flat compared with last Friday.

The mainstream transaction in Ningbo was 17000-17100 yuan / ton, the ordinary brand rose 110-130 yuan / ton to the 2005 contract, and the price difference between Ningbo and Shanghai ordinary brand remained near 30 yuan / ton on Friday. Today, zinc prices slightly revised back, Shanghai rising water gradually lower, Ningbo market slightly followed, but traders' willingness to ship has weakened. In the first trading session in the morning, the holdings quoted in Huize, Tiefeng, Hualian and West Mine rose 120 yuan / ton on the May contract, while Kirin reported a rise of about 150 yuan / ton on the May contract. Entering the second trading session, transactions remained weak, some shippers suspended shipments, most brand prices gradually reduced by 20 yuan / ton, Kirin reported in May to rise 130 yuan / ton, the rest of the brand reported at 100-110 yuan / ton. Overall, today's market transaction atmosphere compared with last Friday, the transaction situation is very light.

Guangdong zinc mainstream transaction in 16870-16970 yuan / ton, the quotation focused on Shanghai zinc 2006 contract rose 0-40 yuan / ton, Guangdong market compared with Shanghai stock market discount 110 yuan / ton is flat compared with the previous trading day. The first trading period, futures prices are still strong, but Guangdong inventory changes little, the initial holder is still quoted higher, but heard that Guangdong bonded area has imported zinc inflow, the market active shipment, spot rising water has also been reduced. Kirin, Mengzi, Huize and Tiefeng quoted 10-40 yuan / ton for Shanghai zinc June contract and 100 yuan / ton for flying dragon. In the second trading session, prices are still high and volatility, downstream procurement volume is still limited, individual holders continue to lower prices for shipment, spot water pressure, but near delivery, the margin of discount to futures that month is limited, the holder continues to adjust the price is insufficient. Kirin, Mengzi, Huize and Tiefeng quoted 0-20 yuan / ton for the June contract. Kylin, Mengzi, Huize, Tiefeng mainstream transaction in 16870-16970 yuan / ton.

The mainstream transaction of zinc ingots in Tianjin market was 17040-18270 yuan / ton, and that of ordinary brands was 1704017190 yuan / ton. The contract for 2005 rose by 100 yuan / ton to 220 yuan / ton. Compared with Shanghai stock market, Tianjin market rose from 30 yuan / ton to 60 yuan / ton. Today, the Shanghai zinc high concussion, the spot market maintains rises the discount quotation, the quotation is more unified, the ordinary brand lark newspaper in the 05 contract quotation 120 yuan / ton, the red bull newspaper in the 05 contract quotation water 170 yuan / ton, Chi Hong newspaper in the 05 contract quotation water 100 yuan / ton, the fourth ring newspaper in the 05 contract quotation water 120 yuan / ton, the import KZ quotes in the 05 contract quotation 100 yuan / ton, High-priced brand Zijin on the May contract rose 220 yuan / ton near. Today, zinc prices are high and fluctuating, and some traders at first bid up and ship goods, but the transaction is not good. At present, the volume of goods in the superimposed market is significantly higher than before, and the rising water has dropped to a low price before noon; downstream, the spot price in Tianjin remains high today, and the mood of receiving goods downstream is general, maintaining the need to purchase. On the whole, deals have been done today. The transaction of zinc ingot is near 1699017140 yuan / ton.

Tin: after the opening of US $15290 / ton today, the sub-plate initially showed a concussive upward trend, climbing to US $15450 / ton and maintaining a high level of consolidation. After the opening of the European market, Lunxi pressure fell back, as of 16: 30, Lunxi's latest price of $15350 / ton, showing a small positive line, above the physical part of the pressure on the 60-day moving average, Lunxi above the 60-day moving average of $15400 / ton resistance level, if broken, the next resistance is near the previous high of $15600-15700 / ton. In the near future, you can pay attention to China's April PPI annual rate (%) and April CPI annual rate (%) announced on Tuesday.

Shanghai tin main force 2007 contract last night after the opening of 130550 yuan / ton overall showed a small concussion downward trend, the lowest down to a day low of 129400 yuan / ton. After the opening of 129760 yuan / ton in early trading today, affected by bulls increasing positions, the market rose rapidly at the beginning and then slowly fluctuated higher. After climbing to an intraday high of 131640 yuan / ton, the disinfection fell back, and finally closed at 131130 yuan / ton, up 950 yuan / ton, or 0.73%. The trading volume was 45796, the position was 31628, and the position was reduced by 489. Today, Shanghai tin closed with the Xiaoyang line, the lower shadow line was supported by the 5-day moving average, and the resistance above Shanghai tin is expected to be near the previous high of 132000 yuan / ton.

Spot market, today quoted 134500136500 yuan / ton. Shanghai tin rose, Shanghai tin spot prices rose significantly, downstream enterprises fear high sentiment to buy weak only a small number of just need to purchase, traders also partially maintain wait-and-see mood. The overall transaction atmosphere of Shanghai tin spot market is weak. Shanghai tin 2007 contract set Yunxi rising water 6000 yuan / ton. The Shanghai period tin 2006 contract ordinary cloud word rises the water 3500 yuan / ton near, the small brand rises the water 3000 yuan / ton near.

Nickel: Lunni closed on Friday and opened high at $12400 a tonne today. It quickly hit a daily high of $12500 a tonne after opening, but soon fell back under pressure and, after giving up most of its gains before the close of the session, ran in the first line of $12300 / tonne last week. After entering the European session, Lunni was again under pressure, turning from red to green and diving to a daily low of $12215 / ton. As of 18: 00, Lunni closed at US $12280 / ton, with daily trading volume reduced by 2963 to 1909 hands and position reduced by 523 to 221000 hands. Although the trend of Lunni is weaker than that of Shanghai Nickel in the near future, the Shanghai-Lun ratio has been repaired up to 8.3%, but the multiple EMA is concentrated around 12000 US dollars / ton, and the short-term support is expected to be strong. Pay attention at night, Lunni back to the bottom of many recent moving averages of technical support, can once again test the upper pressure.

In terms of Shanghai Nickel, as the central bank released the first quarter monetary policy implementation report yesterday, which brought positive signals to the market, most of the basic metals rose after opening today, but Shanghai Nickel came out of the trend of rising and falling. Today, the morning market of Shanghai Nickel 2007 main contract jumped short and opened at 102410 yuan / ton. Bulls returned to the market at the beginning of the week to actively increase their positions, and the price of nickel climbed to 103410 yuan / ton in a row. As close to the previous high, so pressure fell, vomiting all the increase in the morning, was suppressed to 102150 yuan / ton before noon. After opening in the afternoon, the short air continued to test and suppress, and Shanghai nickel gradually moved away from the daily moving average, falling as low as 101300 yuan / ton and finally closing at 101610 yuan / ton. Although Shanghai nickel changed from rise to fall today, giving back all the gains on Friday night and this morning, the short position left the market at the end of the day, so the daily position still increased by 2939 hands to 90459 hands compared with the previous trading day. Trading volume increased by 59242 hands to 761000 hands. The settlement price of the main contract fell 150 yuan / ton, or 0.15%, but still stood above all moving averages, recording a long shadow small positive pillar, and touching high to the previous high. Although the MACD red column gradually narrowed, but the technical aspect is still more. In addition, nickel downstream stainless steel showed a strong performance today, the current price has risen sharply. Therefore, the night market can pay attention to the Shanghai nickel technical indicators continue to more than the background, can again launch an impact on the 103500 yuan / ton front line.

Today's SMM1 electrolytic nickel offer 102300-103800 yuan / ton. Russian nickel spot Shanghai nickel 2006 contract quotation between the discount 2006 to flat water, the market is still only non-deliverable new version of Russian nickel has room to reduce prices. Today, Shanghai nickel is rising and falling, although prices are rising, but Russian nickel holders are less willing to adjust prices. on the one hand, it is difficult to find low-priced goods in the market; on the other hand, trading has softened since May Day, and traders have mostly chosen to sit and watch the future market, waiting for consumption that just needs to pick up downstream. And Russian nickel turnover, the morning market is relatively light, after falling the daily average of 102000 yuan / ton in the afternoon, gradually warmed up. Jinchuan Nickel to Shanghai Nickel 2006 contract rose 1000 to 1200 yuan / ton in the morning market. After the opening of the morning market, there are a small number of transactions in the quotation of 1000 yuan / ton. After the second trading session, Jinchuan Company announced that the ex-factory price was 103000 yuan / ton, and some goods arrived in Shanghai. After that, the merchants in the market adjusted the price of Jinchuan nickel, and it is reported that a deal has been reached at 800 RMB900 per ton. In terms of nickel beans, although there is good news that nickel beans can be delivered at the weekend, it is still early to the day of delivery. Current demand deviation, Nickel Bean quotation down to Shanghai Nickel 2006 contract stick 900mur800 yuan / ton. On foreign trade, the import window opened briefly this morning, and some foreign traders locked foreign exchange for forward goods. At present, the domestic Russian nickel discount is strong, and the premium for US dollar goods in foreign trade is US $160 per ton. At night, we will continue to pay attention to the changes in import profits and losses.

 

   

 

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