Nickel price judgment: the last October new rules allow nickel bean delivery caused heated discussion, 2011 contract began to increase deliverable products, has a significant impact on the structure, in addition to 05 contracts, other contracts before November 2011 contracts are rising water structure, but in the long run this is conducive to promoting the stability of the nickel futures market, but the details have yet to be further announced. In terms of fundamentals, the current nickel and iron is the profit space brought about by the high price of stainless steel is pressing step by step, whether stainless steel can continue to rise needs to wait and see the order situation after entering May. At present, among all kinds of stainless steel, the profit of 300 series is still the most ideal, and the operating rate of 300 series is still recovering gradually, which is beneficial to the consumption of primary nickel. We should pay attention to the pressure resistance of the market after the arrival of stainless steel market in the later stage.
1. Nickel spot: last week, the price of electrolytic nickel No. SMM1 was quoted in the range of 98100-103000 yuan / ton. After the Labor Day holiday, traders returned on Wednesday, as the price fell below 100000, downstream enquiries are more active, trading is OK; then two trading days, due to the rebound in nickel prices, the market atmosphere turned weak. In terms of discount, after the opening of the market, traders tried to offer Russian nickel, but the price of water shipment is not good, so gradually back to Shanghai nickel 2006 contract flat water. As for Jinchuan nickel, on Wednesday, the ex-factory price of Jinchuan Company was relatively low, and traders actively received the goods. After the low-price supply flowed out, the rising water of Jinchuan nickel gradually increased by 1500 yuan / ton from the Shanghai nickel 2006 contract, and fell back to 1200 yuan / ton. Spot market sentiment is expected to remain light this week. On the other hand, in terms of discount, Russian nickel holders are less willing to reduce prices and are still expected to report near Pingshui, while Jinchuan Nickel still needs to pay attention to the shipments of manufacturers to Shanghai.
2. The price of high nickel pig iron on Friday is 960mur970 yuan / nickel point (including factory tax), up 10 yuan / nickel point compared with last Friday. Nickel iron transaction is better, large stainless steel plant bulk purchase, as the mine price rises, nickel iron price may maintain high operation, this week high nickel pig iron price range is expected to be 960-990 yuan / nickel point (including tax).
Last week, the (CIF) price of 1.5 per cent of the Philippine nickel mine rose to $39 per wet tonne from $35 per wet tonne. The recovery of nickel and iron prices is the main support for the rise of nickel ore prices.
3. On May 8, the price quotation of stainless steel in Wuxi area was all the same, the quotation range of 304 2B rough edge roll price was 13300-13400 yuan / ton, and 304 NO.1 quoted 13000-13100 yuan / ton. According to the report of the traders, the transaction atmosphere is generally not as active as that of the previous two days. 304 cold rolling, some traders quoted stable, but the actual transaction slightly reduced. Orders are expected to be concentrated in May, increasing supply or putting pressure on prices, but the price trend at a later stage will still depend on continued improvement in downstream demand conditions.
![[SMM Nickel Midday Commentary] On March 26, influenced by expectations surrounding the policy of “Indonesia's proposed levy of a nickel export tax,” nickel prices rose significantly](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/CjEnN20251217171733.jpg)
