[SMM Analysis] Nickel beans enter the ranks of SHFE deliverables! "demon nickel" is no longer a demon?

SMM5, 8 March:

Today's last issue of the "Shanghai Futures Exchange Nickel Futures contract (Amendment)" and "Shanghai Futures Exchange delivery rules (Amendment)", the amendment will be implemented from the NI2011 contract on October 16, 2020. Among them, the nickel beans will be used in the 2011 contract for delivery caused concern in the nickel market.

Europe and the United States have always been the main consumer of nickel beans. According to the 233034 tons of nickel stocks announced by LME on May 7, nickel plates account for only 8.76%, and the rest are nickel beans and nickel grains. Compared with the foreign market, the use of nickel beans by domestic nickel manufacturers is far less than that of nickel plate. Mainly because. The management cost of nickel bean is high: it is easy to be stolen in the process of accumulation, and it is easy to produce short weight after pulverization after accumulation for a long time; 2. Because of its convenience, nickel beans are more used in small-scale production and large-scale mechanized feeding, but are not suitable for domestic steel mills. 3. In terms of the supply of nickel beans, although nickel beans have stable production in Madagascar, Australia, Finland, Canada and Africa, they are not widely circulated in China because only Australia and Madagascar can enjoy a duty-free policy in imported countries, rather than the original factory, which is subject to the same import tariff of 2% as nickel beans and nickel plates, so the supply of nickel beans is limited in Madagascar, Australia, Finland, Canada and Africa.

In terms of spot prices, it is precisely because of liquidity that nickel beans have a certain discount price difference compared with nickel plates. In 19 years, nickel beans once posted 5000 yuan / ton to Shanghai nickel. After 2020, due to the reduction of supply, it gradually narrowed to less than 1000 yuan. Before Wuxi electronic disk delivery of nickel beans, the settlement price discount of 1000 yuan / ton.

At present, although the previous issue announced that nickel beans can be used for delivery from the 2011 contract, there are no detailed regulations on deliverable brands and delivery discount.

As to whether the nickel beans in the previous issue will be delivered by discount, the market participants can be divided into two views: 1. At present, all the other basic metal contracts in the previous period, except copper, have not set different discounts because of the brand, so nickel beans may still be delivered at flat level; 2. Another view is that although nickel beans and nickel plates are pure nickel, there are still obvious differences in product properties, in addition to the shape, the main corresponding downstream, there is also the problem of warehousing period, so nickel beans may set up discount delivery, at the same time agree on a strict warehouse receipt period.

So what will be the impact of this rule on the nickel market? SMM research and analysis shows that:

1. The price difference between Shanghai Nickel 2010 contract and Shanghai Nickel 2011 contract may change in the near future, and the increase of deliverable subject matter leads to the back structure of the price in the near and far month. This evening, we can pay attention to the changes in the position situation.

2. The increase of deliverable goods will reduce the risk of overcrowding in the nickel market.

3. At present, nickel beans US gold goods premium, the original plant beans in the rise of US $180, non-factory beans rose by US $110. The premium on US dollar goods may rise in the future.

4. The price difference between the Wuxi electronic disk and the previous nickel contract will be gradually narrowed and will be closely linked according to whether the nickel bean delivery discount is required in the previous period. 5. Once the nickel beans are widely used for delivery, in the short term, the nickel plate may continue to rise, and at the same time have a certain impact on the market willingness to buy and deliver. From a long-term point of view, once the domestic discount quotation of nickel beans is sufficient, the Shanghai nickel structure may be consistent with Lunni and maintain the contango structure for a long time.

SMM "2019-2022 China Nickel Industry chain report" released, more detailed data and analysis of the nickel industry, welcome to contact the SMM Nickel Research Group for consultation and subscription.

Contact: Liu Yuqiao 021Mui 51666804 QQ 2881050930

Wu Tingting 13795448891

Catalogue of China Nickel Industry chain report 2019-2022

Annual report Summary: global balance of Nickel supply and demand, 2011-2022

1. Aspects of Nickel consumption

1.1 Analysis of stainless Steel Industry in China and India

1.1.1 Chinese Market Analysis of stainless Steel

1.2.2 Indonesian Market Analysis of stainless Steel

1.2 Battery Industry

1.2.1 New Energy Battery Industry

1.2.2 Analysis of Nickel consumption of traditional E Battery from 2014 to 2022

2. Overview of nickel supply

2.1 Market Analysis of Primary Nickel

2.1.1 balance sheet and Price Forecast of Global first-level Nickel supply and demand for 2011-2022

2.1.2 Analysis of Global first Class Nickel production from 2011 to 2022

2.1.3 Analysis of first Class Nickel production in China from 2013 to 2022

2.1.4 quantitative Analysis of China's Import of Primary Nickel from 2009 to 2019

2.1.5 Analysis of global first-level nickel stocks from 2014 to 2019

2.2 Analysis of Secondary Nickel Market

2.2.1 balance between supply and demand and Price Forecast of E Nickel Pig Iron from 2012 to 2022

2.2.2 Global Nickel Iron production capacity 2011-2022

2.2.3 Global profit Analysis of Nickel Pig Iron from 2016 to 2019

2.2.4 Analysis of Global Nickel Pig Iron stocks from 2014 to 2019

2.2.5 Analysis of production capacity of E Global Water extraction Nickel (feni) from 2011 to 2022

2.3 Nickel Sulfate

2.3.1 Analysis of Nickel Sulfate Industry in China and the World

2.3.2 Global Nickel Sulfate production from 2016 to 2022

2.3.3 balance Table and Price Forecast of Nickel Sulfate supply and demand in China from 2014 to 2022

2.3.4 comparison of production cost of Nickel Sulfate with different mainstream Raw Materials

2.3.5 Global Nickel Intermediate production capacity 2017-2022

2.3.6 comparison of Global Intermediate Investment costs

2.4 Nickel Ore

2.4.1 supply and demand balance and Price Forecast of Chinese laterite Nickel Mine from 2013 to 2021

2.4.2 quantitative analysis of nickel laterite imported from China from 2013 to 2021

2.4.3 inventory Analysis of laterite Nickel Mine in Chinese Port from 2014 to 2019

3. Appendix

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