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SMM basic Metals spot Trading Weekly Review (2020.05.6-2020.05.8)
May 8,2020 20:14CST
SMM basic Metals spot Trading Weekly Review (2020.05.6-2020.05.8)
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM, 8 May:

This week, under the holiday factor, the outer plate had four trading days and three domestic trading days, but most of the basic metals at home and abroad showed a continuous upward trend during the week. SMMI3 rebounded 1.4% in the past trading day, mainly due to the news that European countries and US states gradually relaxed epidemic restrictions to restart the economy and strengthened the optimistic expectation that the economy would gradually emerge from the impact of the epidemic. The faster-than-expected growth in China's trade export data in April also proved the economic resilience of the world's second largest economy in the context of the global epidemic, boosted domestic bullish confidence, led a sharp rise in zinc, and zinc rushed to the Wanqi pass in Shanghai. In the three trading days of the week, the main positions increased by more than 32000 to 117000 hands, the bulls strengthened day by day, the spot market, although the rising water decreased slightly. But market attention remained high, with SMMI.Zn rising 3.65 per cent a week. Lun copper rushed up US $5300 / ton, Shanghai copper increased by 1.33%, has completely exceeded 43000 yuan / ton, the spot market rose and declined, cash exchange strengthened, transaction fear was high, SMMI.Cu rose 1.32%. Lead stopped falling and rebounded, the release of recycled lead increased, refined lead rose and decreased, SMMI.Pb rose 1.07%, and continued to show the characteristics of weak and strong. Tin is strong and now weak. In Shanghai, tin rose 2% in the week, and nearly 2800 yuan / ton in three days. Trading was blocked due to higher prices. The spot rose only more than 1,000 yuan, while SMMI. SN rose 0.75% in the week. Although nickel 100000 yuan support is obvious, but the spot performance is not as strong as futures, Russo nickel discount slightly expanded, Jinchuan nickel due to the increase in delivery fell, SMMI Ni week rose 0.39%. Shanghai Alcoa's rebound was blocked, but spot risers continued to rise. Led by Chinalco's active pick-up, spot trading remained active, with SMMI.Al rising 0.31 per cent a week. Next week, the domestic will release a series of economic data, the boost of market confidence is still the main driving force of the metal, delivery is imminent, various items may be ready to rise.

Copper: because of the British bank holiday this week, LME only four trading days, Lun copper low open high walk, the performance of four Lianyang. Affected by the escalation of tensions in Sino-US relations and dismal global economic data during the May Day holiday period, the copper plate was initially low by US $5070 / ton, and the 40-day moving average was supported. The overall upward trend after the opening, mainly due to the European countries and the United States states to relax epidemic restrictions to restart the economy to strengthen the optimistic expectations that the economy will gradually emerge from the impact of the epidemic. The stronger-than-expected growth in China's trade exports in April also demonstrated the resilience of the world's second-largest economy in the context of the global epidemic, helping to boost risk appetite among global investors. Since the start of the OPEC+ production reduction plan in May, the growth rate of superimposed US crude oil stocks has declined, the market is expected to ease the contradiction between oil supply and demand, and the rebound in international oil prices has also given copper prices the momentum to rise. The sustained recovery of China's economy has also effectively boosted market confidence in the recovery of copper demand. Zhou Nelun copper rose steadily along the 20-day moving average, breaking through the $5200 / tonne mark, the upward momentum is still strong, as high as $5295 / tonne, currently closed at $5280.5 / tonne, a weekly increase of 3.42 per cent. This week, the position of Lunlun Copper increased by 1108 hands to 266000 hands, while the trading volume decreased by 23000 hands to 49000 hands. At present, Lun copper to collect Yang, the bottom of a number of moving average support, the upper touch of the 60-day moving average, the technical side still has rising momentum. Continued attention to macro news can help copper prices, with a target of breaking through the $5300 / tonne mark.

Shanghai Copper resumes night trading after the festival. Within the week, Shanghai copper as a whole showed an upward trend, showing a stepped upward trend. On the domestic side, China's April trade data were released within the week, and exports unexpectedly increased sharply. The more-than-expected import and export data strengthened the optimistic expectations of the sustained improvement of China's economy. The General Administration of Customs announced that China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products and copper ore and concentrate in April increased month-on-month compared with the same period last year. China, as the world's largest copper producer and consumer, the news effectively alleviated market concerns about the dismal demand for copper due to the impact of the epidemic. Abroad, countries have announced plans to lift epidemic prevention restrictions, boosting risk appetite among global investors and boosting copper prices. Back after May Day, fears that the escalation of tensions between China and the United States could lead to another Sino-US trade war caused Shanghai copper to jump short to 42320 yuan / ton, but many countries in Europe and the United States resumed their economies to boost market risk appetite, and Shanghai copper rose to fill the gap and break through the 43000 yuan / ton mark. On Friday, without the guidance of Lun Copper, Shanghai Copper rebounded more obviously, touching as high as 43610 yuan / ton to close at 43510 yuan / ton, a weekly increase of 1.33 percent. At present, Shanghai copper closing Yang, the bulls gradually enhanced, has stood firm 60-day moving average, the technical side still has room to rise.

In the spot market, three days after the festival, the water rose and fell day by day. This week, copper in Shanghai showed a step-by-step upward trend, and the rising price after the holiday was slightly higher than that before the festival, but with the continuous rebound of the market, the willingness of the holder to cash at a high level became more and more strengthened. in order to close the deal, the attitude of the buyer has been relaxed and the mood of the buyer has been gradually improved. after the holiday, some traders once replenished their low inventory in an appropriate amount, preferring low-price supply, and downstream enterprises maintained just demand. The actual transaction rose from 130 yuan / ton on Wednesday to 100 yuan / ton over the weekend, with big traders leading the market during the week.

Aluminum: Lun Aluminum has been fluctuating in a narrow range since last Friday, with the center of gravity of the K-line dominated by the horizontal plate. It fell below all averages last Friday and struggled below the five-day moving average in the following days. It fell 1472 US dollars / ton on Monday, refreshing its new low since April 9, and failed to turn against the wind throughout the week. As LME closed on Friday until Thursday, the weekly K line closed at 1492 US dollars / ton, up 7.50 US dollars per ton, or 0.51%. Considering that it is difficult to improve the weak foreign demand in the short term, Weakness is expected to remain volatile next week, with limited gains, and next week will focus on the guidance of macro data such as the dollar index, the US core CPI and the eurozone GDP on market sentiment.

This week is the first week of the last night session. This week, the Shanghai aluminum main force 2007 contract showed a high decline on the third day of the week, and less goods arrived at the warehouse after the festival. SMM statistics showed that the electrolytic aluminum inventory in the mainstream consumption area of the whole country did not increase but decreased during the holiday. Affected by inventory factors, the bulls increased their positions at the beginning of the week. The aluminum price was relatively strong, and the high level reached 12625 yuan / ton. due to the strong resistance of the upper 60-day moving average, Shanghai aluminum continued to be blocked, and the expectation of long-term consumption in the market has been strengthened. Following two days of downward adjustment, short positions increased sharply after the opening of trading on Thursday night, aluminum prices fluctuated downward, and closed at 12430 yuan / ton on Friday, down 70 yuan / ton, down 0.56%, weekly KDJ third line downward, MACD red line shortened, is expected to continue to maintain the range shock next week, the upper 60-day moving average resistance is temporarily difficult to break through.

Return after the festival on the third day of the week spot transactions are better, the guiding role of large households is more obvious. The spot price in Shanghai and Wuxi this week is between 12820-12990 yuan / ton, the spot rising water is between 70110 yuan / ton, the weekly average price is 267.5 yuan / ton compared with last week, and the spot price in Hangzhou is between 12850RMB and 13010 yuan / ton. This week, the holder of the goods is relatively positive, but the performance is high, and the mood of receiving goods is also high when the middleman is at a low price. A large household buys normally every day, and the price is relatively ideal. However, after the end of the daily procurement plan, the market transaction heat has mostly dropped, and trading between traders is also significantly lower. As far as the downstream is concerned, this week, mainly on-demand procurement, a small amount of stock, due to the post-holiday aluminum prices rose sharply than before the festival, to restrain its mood to receive goods, Friday buying enthusiasm is relatively high. Lead: the low level of Lun lead stabilized this week, and the first line of 1630 US dollars showed strong support. at the beginning of the week, Lun lead stabilized and gradually rose, successfully standing on the 5th line of support, during which the high level reached 1665 US dollars / ton. then the high pressure fell back, the 20th line pressure is greater, as of Thursday Lunlun lead reported at 1646 US dollars / ton. Entering next week, global macro data can pay attention to the annual rate of CPI in China in April, the monthly rate of CPI in the United States after the April quarterly survey, the monthly rate of PPI in the United States in April, the number of initial jobless claims (10,000 people) in the week from the United States to May 9, and the monthly rate of industrial output in the United States in April. From the macro data next week, the core data released less, expected to have a lower impact on the market, from the overall trend of Lun lead, is still in a weak trend, it is expected to break through the technical pressure next week is more difficult, is expected to shock consolidation. Lun lead will cost US $1,670 per ton at 1620.

This week, the low level of lead in Shanghai will rise on the contrary, with the support of the platform of 13600 yuan below it stronger. Due to the May Day holiday, the overall trend of Shanghai lead festival is strong, the crackdown on low bears is not strong, Shanghai lead low rose, high once reached 14000 yuan / ton, the last 14000 pressure is extremely strong, Shanghai lead give up the increase, as of Friday, Lun lead reported at 13895 yuan / ton. From a fundamental point of view, at present, the supply of domestic primary lead is stable, and there are no enterprises that have reduced production because of mining problems. Recycled lead enterprises have a strong willingness to start construction as profits rise, so the pressure on the supply side is greater. The only risk lies in the supply of waste batteries. From the current point of view of consumption this week, domestic bulk quotations have begun to be discounted, primary lead trading has weakened, overall consumption tends to be weak, and on the whole there are signs of softbank. There is a great deal of pressure on prices. The Shanghai lead 2006 contract will run at 13700-14050 yuan per ton.

This week the spot mainstream runs in 14300-14400 yuan / ton. This week lead price shock operation, refinery inventory still remains low, but refinery bulk quotation water is lower, the actual consumption is weaker, as of Friday, bulk single mainstream market to SMM1# lead average price rose 50 yuan / ton to flat water factory; trade market, circulation supply is still relatively limited, holders follow the offer of high water, as of Friday, reported to the 2006 contract water rose 450-500 yuan / ton; The circulation of recycled lead increased in the market this week. As of Friday, the mainstream quotation of recycled lead with tax on the average price of SMM1# lead discount 150,200 yuan / ton factory, individual areas have discount 250yuan / ton or more ex-factory quotation.

Zinc: Lun zinc trend first suppression and then rise, during the domestic May Day holiday, LME zinc ingot inventory once again increased to more than 100, 000 tons, at the same time in the lack of domestic drive, Lun zinc inertia fell, two consecutive overcast broke 1900 US dollars / ton, at the same time broke the moving average, the whole weak operation. However, the global multi-regional plan began to lift the ban one after another in May, and began to restore the economy, and the market's expectations for a recovery in demand were strengthened. At the same time, driven by the rise in domestic zinc prices, Lun Zinc rebounded, and below was supported by the Brin channel middle track and EMA adhesion. The price broke through the pace of US $2000 / ton and did not stop rebounding, rising as high as US $2029 / ton. In the later stage, the bulls made a profit and the price fell slightly. But the close remained above $2000 a tonne. Zhou Neilun zinc ushered in three Lianyang, up 4.62% week-on-week. The trend of Shanghai Zinc three Lianyang is strong this week. The opening of the market after the May Day holiday was dragged down by the outer plate. After the opening of trading on Wednesday, the price fell below 16300 yuan / ton, but the bottom was supported by the 5-day moving average, and the low-price funds had a strong desire to enter the market, and the price increased their positions upward, and the main contract rose to 16610 yuan / ton. After the opening of the night Shanghai zinc quickly pulled up, after a little finishing to continue to 16800 yuan / ton impact, but the high level was suppressed by funds, the price fell back slightly, but the long and short sides competed fiercely in the key position, the price narrow range shock collation. On Thursday, the opening price rose rapidly again, approaching the 17000 yuan / ton integer mark, but the high price was suppressed by the entry of some short funds, the bulls stopped the surplus and closed their positions, and the price gave up some of the gains. Prices were slightly repeated after the start of trading on Friday, but prices rose again to 17050 yuan a tonne on expectations of increased maintenance and continued improvement in demand in May and June. The main contract closed at 16985 yuan, up 3.57 per cent on the week. In the three trading days of the week, the main position increased by more than 32000 to 117000 hands, and the bulls strengthened day by day.

This week, the domestic market in Shanghai raised the water by 100-120 yuan / ton for the 05 contract, Shuangyan and Chihong raised the water by 100-130 yuan / ton for the 05 contract, and imported SMC, Belgium and Spain increased the water by 60-90 yuan / ton in May. After returning from the festival, zinc continued to rise, the smelter actively shipped, and after the internal strength and external weakness were further strengthened, the import profit window opened, the circulation of imported zinc in the market increased, the market supply was abundant, and the trading activity of long orders among traders was relatively high. most of the transactions within the contribution day, but after the absolute price has risen, the downstream is afraid of heights and wait and see, and the quotations of downstream domestic brands such as Huize, Shuangyan and Baiyin quickly move closer to China. And imported zinc is limited compared with domestic discount mainly in the turnover between traders, highlighting the weakness of downstream mining and buying, this week, the Shanghai stock market transaction slightly less than last week.

The price difference between Ningbo and Shanghai this week narrowed from 40 yuan / ton to 30 yuan / ton this week, and the price difference between Ningbo and Shanghai narrowed from 40 yuan / ton to 30 yuan / ton this week, the price difference between Ningbo and Shanghai narrowed from 40 yuan / ton to 30 yuan / ton this week. On the first trading day after the festival, the price of zinc rose, and the offer of the holder was more conservative, basically concentrated in the vicinity of 140-160 yuan / ton on the May contract, but due to the reserve of the downstream before the festival, and some enterprises stopped work during the May Day holiday, the overall inventory pressure of raw materials and finished products is greater. On Thursday and Friday, with the return of the market, the holder gradually lowered the spot quotation, the ordinary brand from the 05 contract rose 140 yuan / ton to 120 yuan / ton, the high-priced brand rose 160 yuan / ton from 05 contract to 140 yuan / ton. But overall, this week's transaction situation is very weak, the lower reaches of the heights are mainly wait-and-see, the overall transaction before the festival obviously worse.

This week, the price of zinc in Guangdong market focused on the Shanghai zinc 2006 contract rose 10-60 yuan / ton, Guangdong market compared with Shanghai stock market discount 110 yuan / ton is the same as last Thursday. During the May Day holiday period, the increase in inventory in the Guangdong market was limited. Based on this, at the beginning of the week, the holders still sold at a high price, while the traders were not willing to purchase the high-rise water supply, and the supply and demand sides of the market were relatively deadlocked. Downstream, the purchase was at a low price, and the demand was relatively stable. During the week, with the continuous rise in zinc prices, the lower reaches had a poor acceptance of higher spot prices and prices, while the source of early warehouse orders entered the market more, individual brand quotations were lower, and spot transaction prices were suppressed. Holders began to lower prices for shipment, spot to futures 2006 contracts continued to narrow compared with the beginning of the week, traders' enthusiasm to enter the market increased, but after the spot price discounted the futures contracts for the current month, the price of futures began to fall continuously, and the spot price continued to narrow compared with the beginning of the week, and the enthusiasm of traders to enter the market increased. However, after the spot price discounted the futures contract for the month, The subsequent price adjustment by the holder is limited. On the whole, the lower reaches of Guangdong Die casting Zinc Alloy Factory in the case of poor orders, whenever the price rises, the purchase demand decreases obviously.

This week, Tianjin zinc contract to Shanghai zinc 2005 rose 100 to 300 yuan / ton, the Tianjin stock market rose from 190 yuan / ton to 30 yuan / ton, Tianjin rose and fell a lot this week. After May Day, due to the large increase in zinc prices, the smelter transferred the factory warehouse to the Tianjin social treasury, Tianjin inventory recorded an increase, the spot flow volume improved, after the superimposed section, the lower willingness to receive goods, Tianjin Shengshui all the way to 120 yuan / ton to 280 yuan / ton, but the transaction is still light; On Friday, zinc prices continued to rise, and under low-price shipments from smelters, the Tianjin market discount weakened again to 100 yuan / ton to 220 yuan / ton, with a better deal than before. On the whole, this week, due to smelters low price goods, the market volume increased, spot rising water from the high down, the overall transaction is general.

Tin: the overall Lunxi electronic disk showed a small upward trend this week, affected by the rise in crude oil prices and the continued decline in LME tin stocks at the beginning of the week, good Lunxi electronic disk trend of its center of gravity slowly moved up. Subsequently, affected by the domestic Shanghai tin disk high shock, Lunxi also maintained the consolidation trend, the center of gravity high position to maintain stability. Lunxi closed Thursday at $15190 a tonne. Nelon tin rose $160, or 1.06%, to 717 hands and 17313 positions, down 14 hands. The circumferential level is a small positive line, the lower part of the entity is supported by the 5-10 EMA, and the recent Lunxi electronic disk is generally in a triangular concussion finishing situation. In terms of indicators, the histogram above the zero axis of the daily line level MACD index is in a reduced state. The weekly level index is mainly good.

This week Shanghai tin main force 2007 contract overall maintains the high concussion collation situation, the center of gravity has risen. At the beginning of the May Day holiday, bulls increased positions as the main companion with some short positions and a small number of bulls leaving the market, and the one-day trend for two consecutive trading days showed the relative stability of the center of gravity. On Friday, the bulls increased their positions again, the center of gravity of Shanghai tin moved up obviously, and the Shanghai tin 2007 contract closed at 130180 yuan / ton on Friday. During the week, it rose 2790 yuan / ton, or 2.19%, with a trading volume of 115000 hands and a position of 32117 hands, an increase of 3704 hands. This week Shanghai tin shows a positive line, the top pressure on the 20-day moving average, the bottom by the 60-day moving average support. In terms of indicators, although the daily line level MACD index showed a top deviation situation, but its fast and slow line above the zero axis showed a good situation, and the KDJ support high position into a golden fork; K line from the Brin belt on the track there is a small amount of space. Weekly level, indicators are still good, K line has not yet been from the lower track to the Brin belt in the middle of the track.

The overall performance of the Shanghai-tin spot market this week was relatively stable. In terms of prices, at the beginning of the May Day holiday, driven by the rise in the center of gravity of the Shanghai tin 2006 contract and the relatively strong impact of the spot rise, the spot price of Shanghai tin followed the rise. Then, because the overall trading situation of Shanghai tin spot market is relatively weak, and the overall center of gravity of Shanghai tin 2006 contract is stable, the spot price of Shanghai tin remains relatively stable during the week. In terms of market transactions, there is less overall demand for downstream enterprises to maintain a state of procurement during the week. Traders made purchases on Friday. The overall trading atmosphere in the Shanghai-tin spot market this week is generally weak. On Friday, the spot price of Shanghai tin remained at 133500-135500 yuan / ton, with an average price of 134500 yuan / ton, up 1000 yuan / ton from the last trading day of last week. In terms of discount, the spot water range during the week was generally relatively stable. On Friday, the Shanghai tin 2006 contract set Yunxi rose 5000 yuan / ton, ordinary Yunzi rose 4, 000-4, 500 yuan / ton, and small brand rose 3500 yuan / ton.

Nickel: Lunni showed a tendency to suppress first and then rise this week. It was the May Day holiday in China at the beginning of the week, and investors thought overseas stock markets had rebounded more than fundamentals in April, and the VIX index, a measure of market panic, rose 10 per cent in May. In the pessimistic mood of the outer plate, Lunni continued Friday's decline at the beginning of the week, falling to a low of $11800 / tonne, which was at the middle of the Boll line and the 40-day moving average, where it stopped falling. With the domestic post-holiday return to the market, driven by the strength of Shanghai Nickel, Lunni quickly recovered the previous decline, the center of gravity returned to 12300 US dollars / ton first line after shock adjustment. As the Bank of England holiday LME closed on Friday, funds closed in safe haven late Thursday, closing at $12295 a tonne after a slight fall in Lunni. Weekly positions were reduced by 5415 to 18481, down from 267 to 221000 last week. After the pullback this week, Lunni returned above the multiple moving averages, with short-term support of $12000 / ton, while the lower $11800 / ton line has been proved to have strong support. At present, the global macro mood is still fragile, and today's attention to the April unemployment rate in the United States and the change in non-farm payrolls after the quarterly adjustment may guide the trend next week.

In terms of Shanghai Nickel, the domestic market returned to the market on Wednesday, and the Shanghai Nickel 2007 contract opened at 98960 yuan / ton, briefly falling to the lowest point of 97800 yuan / ton in the week, and soon the domestic non-ferrous plate gradually recovered, while the nickel market due to the standing price of the stainless steel market, gave the bulls confidence to pull up, and the position increased significantly in the middle of the week. Shanghai nickel led the rise in basic metals for 2 consecutive days, during the highest up to the highest point of the week 102780 yuan / ton, and the center of gravity also returned to 101800 yuan / ton line began to shock adjustment. Shanghai nickel pressure on Thursday night to reduce the long position, but Shanghai nickel fell to the 10-day moving average 100390 yuan / ton support began to rebound, this week closed at 101720 yuan / ton. Weekly trading volume increased by 632000 hands to 1.716 million hands; although there is a certain amount of funds to stop the profit and departure, but the weekly position volume still increased by 28286 hands to 87520 hands. This week Shanghai nickel stands above all moving averages, has verified the support strength of the lower moving average, and continues to take the long arrangement as the main operating direction, and continue to make a breakthrough in energy storage. Next week, we will focus on whether Shanghai Nickel can launch an effective breakthrough from the previous high of 103750 points.

This week, the price of electrolytic nickel No. SMM1 was quoted in the range of 98100-103000 yuan / ton. As the beginning of the week for the domestic May Day holiday, traders returned on Wednesday, as the price fell below 100000, downstream enquiries are more active, trading is OK; then two trading days, due to the rebound in nickel prices, the market atmosphere turned weak. In terms of discount, after the opening of the market, traders tried to offer Russian nickel, but the price of water shipment is not good, so gradually back to Shanghai nickel 2006 contract flat water. As for Jinchuan nickel, on Wednesday, the ex-factory price of Jinchuan Company was relatively low, and traders actively received the goods. After the low-price supply flowed out, the rising water of Jinchuan nickel gradually increased by 1500 yuan / ton from the Shanghai nickel 2006 contract, and fell back to 1200 yuan / ton. At present, the Shanghai nickel price is relatively strong, the trend is more, it is expected that the spot market atmosphere next week will continue to be light. On the other hand, in terms of discount, Russian nickel holders are less willing to reduce prices and are still expected to report near Pingshui, while Jinchuan Nickel still needs to pay attention to the shipments of manufacturers to Shanghai.

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