[2020.5.6 Summary of Xi Chenghe Association] short-term or high wide shocks of tin in Shanghai period

SMM5, June 6:

On the macro front, the dollar index has been red for three days, mainly because of rising tensions among big countries to dampen risk appetite, and markets are worried that trade disputes will unfold again. The data showed a rise in risk aversion after a record decline in US manufacturing output in April, coupled with a record drop in US factory orders in March and possibly further decline. the dollar expanded its gains after disruptions in the supply chain caused by the new crown virus epidemic and curbing exports. On the stock market, risk sentiment worsened as US President Donald Trump threatened to retaliate against the coronavirus epidemic, and profit warnings from large companies led to a sharp fall in the stock market over the weekend. [bearish] the U. S. stock market recovered on Monday. On the crude side, US oil Sanlianyang began a record cut in production by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting countries (OPEC) (OPEC) and its allies to address the oversupply caused by the Xinguan virus crisis, coupled with a slowdown in inventory growth at major US oil storage centres last week. [Lido] on the precious metals side, US stocks tumbled last week as a result of US President Donald Trump's tariff remarks, which spurred safe-haven demand for gold. But as the dollar strengthened and U. S. stocks rebounded sharply on Monday, gold prices fell, raising concerns about a new round of trade frictions as investors sought to avoid geopolitical risks and worried about a possible second outbreak of coronavirus. [bearish]

On the supply and demand side, the overall trend of US crude oil during the holiday period showed an upward trend, LME tin inventory continued to decline, good Lunxi electronic disk trend, Lunxi overall showed a high concussion trend, the center of gravity slowly moved up. Lunxi closed yesterday at $15185 a tonne, up $195 a tonne from the start of trading on May 1. From the perspective of disk trend and index, the histogram above the zero axis of MACD index of daily line level, the empty sign of KDJ index slows down, and the K line is above the middle rail of Bolin belt. To sum up, the macro aspect is mixed, the fundamentals are temporarily improving, and the indicators are showing weak signs, so it is expected that the short-term Lunxi electronic disk may continue to maintain a high concussion finishing trend. The lower support is expected to be near the integer level of $15000 / ton, and the upper resistance is around $15600 / ton.

On the domestic side, macroscopically, the overall trend of the tin city in the recent period is still relatively more affected by the macro level, and by the confirmation of the dates of the two sessions, the rising trend of crude oil prices, and the 28th meeting of the Financial Stability and Development Board of the State Council on May 4, to listen to reports on the progress of work such as supporting economic recovery, speeding up the reform and development of small and medium-sized banks, cracking down on capital market fraud, and so on. It is expected to form a certain support for the trend of tin prices. After the opening of early trading today, Shanghai tin 2006 contract reduced upward, the main 2007 contract long continued to increase positions, in the short term, Shanghai tin is still high wide shock finishing trend. Shanghai tin 2007 contract is expected to maintain a high wide concussion situation in the short term, below the test early horizontal plate interval on the track 126000 yuan / ton near the support level, the upper resistance is near the previous high point of 132000 yuan / ton. Shanghai tin 2006 contract is expected to support at the bottom of 128000 yuan / ton, the upper resistance is around 134000 yuan / ton.