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SMM basic Metals spot Trading Weekly Review (2020.04.27-2020.04.30)
Apr 30,2020 20:12CST
SMM basic Metals spot Trading Weekly Review (2020.04.27-2020.04.30)
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM, 30 April:

This week, the basic metals showed a low recovery trend. During the week, more news came out. At the beginning of the week, the domestic announcement of Yunnan on the commercial collection and storage of non-ferrous metals boosted the confidence of the industry. Subsequently, the timing of the two sessions was confirmed. The PMI data released on Thursday showed that the economy was still recovering. Near the May Day holiday, most non-ferrous varieties rebounded higher, SMMI rose 1.97%, zinc collar rose, Shanghai zinc rose 3.63%, spot rose and fell. SMMI.Zn rose 3.13 per cent a week. Aluminum activity during the week is high, Shanghai aluminum week rose nearly 3%, spot water rose slightly, the price spread widened every other month, SMMI.Al rose 2.73%. Copper followed, with a target of $5300 a tonne, with Shanghai copper up 2.78 per cent, spot gains falling and SMMI.Cu up 2.16 per cent. Shanghai tin fluctuated in the range of 130000 to 135000 yuan, spot is affected by fear of heights, supply and demand are on the sidelines, SMMI.Sn rose 1.14 per cent per week. Nickel gradually fell back from the 100000 front line during the week, with a weekly decline of 1.5%, spot water was basically stable, downstream delivery was limited, and SMMI.Ni rose only slightly by 0.05% during the week. During the week, only lead was weak, Wansi gate pressure, low shock finishing, recycled lead supply magnified, so that refined lead water narrowed decline, SMMI.Pb week down 0.36%. Next week, May Day holiday returns, with the gradual return of production, consumption is still to be expected, with the upcoming two sessions of the country, the market is full of expectations for future stimulus policies, basic metals are still in a favorable atmosphere.

Copper: Lun copper rose gradually this week, mainly driven by optimistic expectations that the macro side will continue to improve. News of countries loosening the blockade to restart their economies came as the Bank of Japan, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank announced monetary policy resolutions one after another this week, all saying they would release further liquidity to support the economic recovery. The return of low international oil prices has also contributed to the rise in copper prices. Fundamentals, compared with current expectations of increased demand for copper, news that major miners have cut production as a result of the epidemic has heightened concerns about a shortage of copper supply, supporting a rise in copper prices. Lunlun Copper opened at $5200 a tonne on Monday as heightened investor concerns about the outlook for crude oil demand led to a sharp fall in US oil prices, and panic in the oil market spread to copper prices. Lun Copper fell nearly $100 a tonne from a high of $5250 a tonne to a low of $5153.5 a tonne in the week. Then copper based on its 40-day moving average rebounded back to the $5200 mark and maintained its rally, hitting a peak of $5294.5 a tonne over the weekend, its highest level in more than a month. In European trading on Thursday, Lun copper rose 1.22 per cent to $5250 a tonne. This week, Lunlun Copper held a position of 266000 hands; trading volume decreased by 24000 hands to 50000 hands. At present, Lun copper close Yang, the bottom of a number of moving averages support, and up close to the 60-day moving average, the technical side is still rising momentum, short-term target will break through the $5300 / ton level.

The center of gravity of Shanghai copper continued to rise this week compared with last week, showing a low rebound during the week. On the domestic side, the timing of the "two sessions" within the week has been determined, indicating that China's epidemic prevention and control work has achieved phased results. Over the weekend, China's April PMI data showed that the official manufacturing PMI in April was 50.8%, while the non-manufacturing PMI was 53.2%, confirming the market's expectation of a sustained improvement in China's economy. In addition, the Yunnan and Gansu governments plan to carry out non-ferrous metal storage news directly stimulated the rise in copper prices. Capital flows back into risky assets, providing momentum for copper prices to rise. At the beginning of the week, Shanghai copper jumped high at 42420 yuan / ton, and the short-term copper price rose to 42840 yuan / ton due to the news of Yunnan collection and storage. But dragged down by crude oil prices, Tuesday fell as low as 42150 yuan / ton, supported and gradually rebounded at the 5-day moving average, boosted by good macro and fundamental news. Shanghai copper closed at 42940 yuan per ton on Thursday, up 2.78 per cent on a weekly basis. This week, the main position of copper in Shanghai fell by 174 hands to 112000 hands, and trading volume fell by 233000 hands to 298000 hands. At present, the closing of Yang, the top touched the 60-day moving average, has made up for the previous jump gap. Pay attention to the outer plate guidelines during the holidays and test whether the copper price can stand at the level of 43000 yuan / ton after the holiday.

In the spot market, the rally has eased this week. Due to the increase in the supply of imported copper and abundant supply in the market, the low level of copper in Shanghai rebounded within the week, and the holders were eager to cash out their inventories before the festival and took the initiative to lower the discount quotation. But demand was weak, and downstream demand remained moderate this week after last week's low concentrated replenishment. Although the traders are willing to receive the goods, but they are still far away from the psychological price, in addition, the mood of risk aversion is becoming stronger and stronger, and the traders tend to be cautious in receiving the goods. The water rose 140-170 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and decreased to 100-130 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. The holder has no intention to continue to reduce the price when it is close to $100 in the vicinity of the rising water. On the whole, the willingness of holders to clear their warehouses before the festival in exchange for risk aversion is increasing day by day, and the characteristics of the festival are becoming more and more obvious.

Aluminum: aluminum showed four consecutive negative this week, the daily K line is difficult to break away from the 5-10-20 daily average, the rise and fall basically follow the domestic Shanghai aluminum trend, but because the fundamentals are weak, the upper $1530 / ton resistance position is more obvious. As of 17:07 Beijing time, Lun Aluminium temporarily closed at $1496.5 / ton, down $18 / ton, or 1.19%, during the week. Trading volume decreased by 18996 hands to 41890 hands, and positions increased by 16457 hands to 814000 hands, mainly by short positions. Zhou K line at the end of three even Yang close a small negative line, MACD green line narrowed, KDJ three lines have the potential to gather again. At present, the development of the epidemic situation in overseas countries is different. Although the index of the United States has dropped, it is still at a high level of more than 98 points, and it still suppresses the basic metals to a certain extent. This Friday and next Monday, the Shanghai aluminum market, material Lun aluminum overall trend will still follow the outer plate metal fluctuations, but also need to continue to pay attention to LME warehouse receipt changes, Shanghai aluminum after the opening of the Lunlun aluminum is likely to rise, is expected to run next week in the range of $14801570 / ton.

The first four trading days of the 2006 contract in Shanghai Aluminum Company this week were volatile and upward, with relatively strong fundamentals causing Shanghai Aluminum to lead the rise in other non-ferrous metals during the week. Monday's aluminum opened at 12420 yuan / ton, rose to a high of 12700 yuan / ton on Wednesday, closed at 12660 yuan / ton on Thursday, and rose 375 yuan / ton, or 3.05%, during the week. Trading volume decreased by 210000 hands by 342000 hands, and positions were reduced by 17097 hands to 107000 hands, mainly by short positions. Zhou K line close a Zhongyang line, stand firm 10-day moving average, KDJ three lines up. The monthly spread widened further this week, and demand continued to improve month-on-month to give the bulls stronger confidence. On Thursday, the bears left the market, while the bulls increased their positions after the 07 contract, and the bulls were strong enough. However, in May, the export fault may hedge domestic trade demand, and the sustainability of domestic demand remains to be observed. In the first week after the festival, warehouse receipts continue to decline and social inventories continue to go to the warehouse. It is expected that the shock is still strong, and the above test is 13000 yuan / ton. Shanghai aluminum main concussion runs at 12400-13000 yuan / ton.

Spot transactions in East China are more active this week. Shanghai and Wuxi area holders quoted between 12490-12800 yuan / ton, the weekly average price rose 277 yuan / ton compared with last week, the surface discount concentrated in the increase of 50-80 yuan / ton, Hangzhou area transaction price concentrated in 12520-12840 yuan / ton. This week, a large account normal daily procurement plan, near the May Day rest, the market trading atmosphere is more enthusiastic, because the circulation spot is slightly narrower than the previous period, the daily inquiry is numerous, the holder is active in shipping every day, the middleman is also more willing to receive the goods, and the trading situation between the two sides is better. The day before the holiday due to the consideration of closing accounts settlement and holiday rest, the market atmosphere turned to calm. Downstream performance hesitant in the first two days of the week, receiving goods is not obvious, as time approached May Day, stock sentiment gradually, the volume of purchases increased significantly on Wednesday. To sum up, the enthusiasm of receiving goods downstream in the near future is significantly better than that at the beginning of the month, which does not rule out the existence of low-price speculative hoarding motivation, and pays attention to the continuity of receiving goods downstream after the festival.

Lead: this week's low lead stabilized, but still in the downward channel, the strength of the rebound is weak; at the beginning of the week, Lun lead continued the weak trend, during which the low level once reached 1611.5 US dollars / ton, as the crude oil low level rebounded, the capital selling pressure slowed down, Lun lead stabilized and slightly rebounded to touch 1663 US dollars / ton, but mostly concentrated in the Asian period, entering Europe showed a high level of decline, as of Thursday, Lun lead reported in the vicinity of 1640 US dollars / ton. At the beginning of next week, China entered the May Day holiday, LME disk normal trading, the current overseas consumption is more pessimistic, technically the long-term trend of lead has not changed the downward channel, multiple factors to see overseas lead unspeakably optimistic, next week will continue to test the low support level of $1600. Lun lead will be in the $1605-1685 / ton range.

This week, Shanghai lead fell back, high pressure of 14000 yuan / ton; at the beginning of the week, Shanghai lead was stimulated by the collection and storage news, followed by the strengthening of non-ferrous metals, the high level once reached 14030 yuan / ton, then with the expected release of the production of recycling enterprises, short high re-entry, Shanghai lead back to give up the increase, as of Thursday, Shanghai lead was reported at 13660 yuan / ton, the lower track in Brin was supported. Shanghai lead has only three trading days next week, and the trend after the festival is more dependent on the trend of Lun lead. From a fundamental point of view, Shanghai lead pressure is difficult to solve, but considering the current absolute inventory base is very low, it is expected that the low level of 13500 yuan 13600 yuan / ton will be supported. The main force of lead in Shanghai period will be 1355013900 yuan / ton.

This week the spot mainstream runs in 1435014600 yuan / ton. Lead prices rose and fell back this week, primary lead refinery inventory remained low, refinery bulk quotation maintained high water quotation, but in the next few days, refinery bulk single quotation rose slightly, as of Thursday, bulk single mainstream market to SMM1# lead average price rose 50-100 yuan / ton, trade market, circulation supply is still relatively limited, holders mostly followed the offer of high water, as of Thursday, reported to the 2005 contract water rose 300400 yuan / ton; The circulation of recycled lead increased in the market this week. The mainstream quotation of recycled lead with tax on the average discount of SMM1# lead is 100-150 yuan / ton, and the price of individual refinery discount is 200 yuan / ton. Consumer side, this week, most of the battery enterprises to bargain on-demand procurement, some battery enterprises ready before the festival.

Zinc: zinc shock upward this week, four Lianyang trend is relatively strong. Europe and the United States began to discuss the resumption of economic activity, restart the economy on the agenda, market confidence was boosted, Monday zinc shock upward, touching $1927 / ton, but dragged down by the sharp drop in crude oil and the above 40-day moving average suppressed, the price fell back slightly, once broke the $1900 / ton integer level, but on the whole, the lower support is stronger, the price rebounded to recover some of the decline. In the later stage, as the dollar index fell back, the sharp rebound in crude oil prices also gave a boost to zinc prices, while LME stocks fell below 100000 tons again to support the price. Lun zinc continued to fluctuate after finishing within a narrow range above 1900 US dollars / ton, with prices once breaking 1950 US dollars / ton, up 3.5% during the week, basically recovering last week's decline.

Shanghai zinc rose one after another this week, upward break through the pressure level, the overall performance is stronger than Lun zinc. Over the weekend, Yunnan Province supported terminal enterprises to carry out commercial collection and storage of copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, indium and other metal products. The total amount of collection and storage was about 800000 tons. Boosted by the news, the main contract opened high on Monday, with the price once rising to 16235 yuan / ton, approaching last week's high, but dragged down by the drop in crude oil. Shanghai zinc prices are high and long risk aversion has risen, closing positions and increasing, prices under pressure downward. Give back most of the day's gains. Gansu Province is currently working on a collection and storage plan, planning to collect and store 40, 000 tons of zinc. Successive news from the market has boosted the price of zinc, which was later driven by a surge in crude oil. At the same time, due to the increase in domestic smelter maintenance in May, coupled with the continuous decline of the current zinc ingot inventory, the market is worried about the subsequent supply of zinc ingots. The trend of zinc in Shanghai is strong and continues to break through upward. On Thursday, the peak of the main contract rose to 16480 yuan / ton. Prices hit their highest level since March and were up 3.63% by the end of the week.

This week, the domestic contract for 05 in Shanghai market dropped from 150-160 yuan / ton to 100-110 yuan / ton, and Shuangyan and Chihong on 05 contract from 180-200 yuan / ton to 140-150 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the monthly long single execution ended, the trading activity of the spot market decreased significantly, and traders entered the settlement and closing stage. After the disk was boosted by the closing and storage news, the willingness to buy downstream decreased significantly, and after the demand weakened, the market quotation was pressed down. Since the beginning of the week, the rising water of 150-160 yuan / ton has been adjusted down to 100-110 yuan / ton for the time being. At the same time, in view of the fact that the production transmission from the mine tension to the smelting end may appear obviously in May, some traders have also actively received the goods, in addition, the May Day holiday is approaching, and the downstream also needs to stock up just because of production needs. The actual transaction volume in the market near the holiday has warmed up, and the overall trading volume is generally flat compared with last week.

The contract of zinc in Ningbo to Shanghai zinc 2005 rose by 150 yuan / ton to 180 yuan / ton this week, and the price difference between Ningbo and Shanghai narrowed to 40 yuan / ton from 50 yuan / ton on Friday. In the first half of the week, the supply of goods in the market was relatively scarce, and the rising water was relatively strong. Ordinary brands such as Tiefeng and Kirin still maintained the quotation of more than 200 yuan / ton for the May contract, and a small number of Guangdong goods arrived in the Ningbo market. The quotation is near 190 yuan / ton in Feilong to the May contract. Subsequently, the arrival of goods from Guangdong increased, Ningbo market supply is more abundant, rising water gradually reduced 40-60 yuan / ton near, but due to the disk rose more, downstream enterprises are still wait-and-see, the willingness to buy is poor. In addition, due to the concentration of die-casting zinc alloy enterprises in Ningbo area, due to the drag of external demand, alloy enterprise orders continue to be weak, most enterprises plan to stop production and rest during May Day, and the demand for goods is relatively bleak.

This week, the price of zinc in the Guangdong market focused on the Shanghai zinc 2006 contract rose 20-70 yuan / ton, the Guangdong market compared with the Shanghai stock market discount of 110 yuan / ton narrowed by 30 yuan from last Friday. Due to the recent sharp increase in the amount of zinc spindles sent from Guangdong warehouses to other regions, the stock in the Guangdong market has dropped obviously, and the price quoted by the holder is still relatively high at the beginning of the week. However, with the continuous rise in futures prices and the limited willingness to purchase downstream, it is mainly prepared according to a small amount of orders, while near the May Day holiday, the demand of the holders for high price delivery and realization increases, and at the same time, they are also worried about the increase in market arrivals during the holidays, affecting the transaction prices after the holidays. The price of the holder has been reduced in the later stage. At present, the spot price in Guangdong has increased to the futures contract in the same month, attracting the continuous outflow of warehouse orders, replenishing the negotiable source of goods in the market, and the situation of excess supply in the Guangdong market is prominent. due to relatively poor demand, the quotation of individual brands is significantly lower than that of other brands, pressurizing the market transaction price, and traders also press the price mainly, and the spot price continues to narrow within the week of spot rise.

The current zinc contract in Tianjin this week rose 200 yuan to 400 yuan / ton in Shanghai zinc contract, and the rising water in Tianjin stock market remained at 190 yuan / ton compared with Shanghai stock market. This week, the rising water in Tianjin gradually fell back from the high level at the beginning of the week. At the beginning of this week, the price of zinc rose to a high level, Tianjin spot discount maintained a high level of 290 yuan / ton to 400 yuan / ton, the spot price went to a high level, the willingness to accept goods downstream was obviously weaker, the transaction was light; In the middle of the week, zinc prices continued to rebound to short-term new highs, spot market transactions were poor superimposed Guangdong and imported zinc ingots served in Tianjin, traders reduced spot water to 200 yuan / ton to 350 yuan / ton, of which import kz fell by a large margin, Zijin still maintained a high discount price, but the transaction situation is still not good. Near the May Day holiday, downstream companies completed pre-holiday storage last week, this week in the zinc price rise, spot transactions are not good, only to pick up on Tuesday.

Tin: this week, the overall trend of Lunxi electronic disk is first raised and then suppressed. At the beginning of the week, influenced by the news surface of domestic non-ferrous metal storage, it continued to go high, climbing to a high point of $15500 / ton within the week, and then Lunxi showed a high concussion finishing trend, and its center of gravity moved down. As of 16: 00 on Thursday, the latest price for Lunxi was $15235 a tonne, falling near the opening price at the start of the week. Weekly level rose $325 / ton, up 2.18%, trading volume 785 hands, position 17433 hands, an increase of 185 hands. The weekly level of Lunxi is a cross star line, and the lower shadow line is supported by the 10-day moving average. In terms of indicators, the daily line level MACD and KDJ indicators show signs of moderation, while the weekly level indicators are still good.

After the opening of the Shanghai tin 2006 contract this week, affected by the news of the collection and storage of non-ferrous metals at the beginning of the week, metals in the Shanghai stock market generally rose, and a large number of short forces in the Shanghai tin 2006 contract left the market, and its price rose sharply and once reached a high of 134780 yuan / ton during the week. The price is also near the starting point of the sharp decline in Shanghai tin since mid-March. Then a few trading days, the bulls day by day to reduce positions, Shanghai tin 2006 contract overall maintained at the integer level of 130000 yuan / ton shock finishing. Affected by the sharp reduction in the market position, the Shanghai tin main contract was changed from the 2006 contract to the 2007 contract. On Friday, the Shanghai tin 2006 contract closed at 129550 yuan per ton. Weekly level rose 680 yuan / ton, up 0.53%, trading volume 104000 hands, position 10422 hands, down 24127 hands. This week Shanghai tin closed with a small positive line, the upper film line is longer in the 20-day moving average. In terms of indicators, the daily line level index showed signs of emptiness, the MACD index was in the state of top deviation, and the KDJ index opened downward.

Shanghai tin spot prices this week after a sharp rise at the beginning of the week to follow the Shanghai tin market fell back. Shanghai tin plate rose sharply at the beginning of the week, the highest rushed to the mid-March fall near the starting point, Shanghai tin spot prices have risen, upstream and downstream businesses are in a wait-and-see state, downstream enterprises have a weak willingness to purchase, traders also have doubts about whether the later market will continue to rise and did not have obvious procurement. Subsequently, the center of gravity of the disk fell back, and some traders actively received the goods and carried out hedging operations. In the next two trading days, due to the approach of May Day holiday and the end of the month, downstream enterprises and traders are in a relatively weak state. The overall trading atmosphere in the Shanghai-tin spot market this week is generally weak. On Friday, the spot price of Shanghai tin was 132500-134500 yuan / ton, all up 1500 yuan / ton from the average price of 133500 yuan / ton on Friday. On Friday, the Shanghai tin 2006 contract set Yunxi rose 5000-5500 yuan / ton, the ordinary cloud word rose 4000-4500 yuan / ton, and the small brand rose 4000 yuan / ton.

Nickel: this week the center of gravity of Nickel is maintained at $12000 / ton above shock consolidation. After Monday's opening, it was boosted by domestic reserve news, following the rise of nickel in Shanghai by $12595 / ton. But after the surge was dragged down by the decline in crude oil and gradually fell back, the lowest down to $12115 / ton, due to the lower 10 / 60 moving average fork to form a technical support, followed by shock adjustment between $12200-$12,300 / ton. In terms of fundamentals, the Philippine Nickel Mining Company said this week that it expected to resume mining and shipping work from May, and that the supply of nickel mines may gradually ease, while the impact of the new crown epidemic on the consumer side on the global scale remains a clear inflection point, and the nickel market lacks sufficient upward momentum in the situation of long and short interweaving, which is still more dominated by global macro factors. From a technical point of view, Lunni currently has a number of EMA interlaced, forming two support levels at US $12150 / ton and US $11800 / ton, respectively. Therefore, there is no need to be overly bearish in the short term. The latest resolution of the Federal Reserve shows that it will continue its policy of near zero interest rates in order to restore the economy. In the near future, the European Central Bank will also introduce relevant measures to restore the economy. The market has the ability to seek an effective breakthrough again after obtaining effective support at the Waner hurdle. It is expected that the short term will still fluctuate between US $11800 and US $12600 / ton to seek a breakthrough.

The Shanghai Nickel 06 contract position and trading volume continued to decline this week, and the main force completed the month exchange on Wednesday. Boosted by domestic commercial storage news at the beginning of the week, the Shanghai Nickel 2007 contract opened as high as 102000 yuan / ton, with the highest rising to 103750 yuan / ton and the lowest falling to 99520 yuan / ton during the week. Although it briefly fell below the 100000 mark, the overall center of gravity is still higher than last week. Due to the approach of the domestic holiday, capital risk aversion mood rose sharply, the end of the week have been closed, four consecutive days recorded a small negative column. Earlier this week, Yunnan and Gansu provinces announced that the collection and storage of basic metals to stimulate the whole line of red, however, because of the nature of commercial storage, so it has little impact on the fundamentals of nickel. Although the current steel plant production remains normal, but the improvement in downstream demand is limited, the market before the festival is mainly to close positions and avoid risks, long and empty leave the market in turn, but the technical indicators still show that the EMA support is good, and continue to take the long arrangement as the main adjustment direction. The market opens after the festival next week and waits for the guidance of the outer plate.

In the spot market, due to the nickel price fell to less than 100000 last week, nickel downstream users have a certain availability, the willingness to purchase this week is weak. At the same time, nickel prices rebounded on Monday, boosted by news of the domestic commercial reserve, and spot trading became lighter over the next three trading days as the market entered leave mode almost ahead of schedule. SMM1 nickel price within the week quoted at 99850-104200 yuan / ton, Russian nickel, for four consecutive days in the market quoted between 100 yuan / ton to Pingshui (Shanghai nickel 2006 contract). As the source of imported goods entered the country at the beginning of the week, the holder overreported the discount shipment, while the original inventory traders still reported in Pingshui because of the limited cost reduction. Jinchuan nickel, this week reported in Shanghai nickel 2006 contract rose between 12001500 yuan / ton. As Jinchuan did not arrive in Shanghai this week, it is more willing to bid in the market. Recently, the inventory of most traders is relatively small, enquiries can be made within the week, there is some circulation between traders, but downstream demand is weak. It is expected that the post-festival spot market, Russian nickel due to sufficient supply, discount may have a certain downward space; Jinchuan nickel still need to pay attention to the recent shipments of manufacturers.

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