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Comment on the spot Exchange Day of SMM basic Metals on April 29th
Apr 29,2020 18:27CST
Comment on the spot Exchange Day of SMM basic Metals on April 29th
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM, 29 April:

Copper: today, Yapanlun Copper opened at US $5200 / tonne. After the opening of the session, the long-term copper price rose strongly to a daily high of US $5248 / ton, but it was difficult to hold steady for a long time. Copper prices fell slightly to US $5230 / ton, and kept a narrow range of concussion around this position. In the afternoon, they fell back below the daily average line and hovered in the US $5217 line. During the European session, Lun Copper briefly rushed up to US $5235 / ton, but the rising momentum was insufficient. The center of gravity sinks in the first line of 5215 US dollars / ton, and it is difficult for the pressure daily moving average to rise again. As of 17: 30, Lun Copper closed up $7.50, or 0.13 per cent, at $5216 a tonne. Today's copper short-term surge is mainly due to the rapid rise in international crude oil prices. As countries have announced plans to lift the epidemic prevention blockade, the market is expected to gradually recover crude oil demand; even if the OPEC+ production reduction plan, which is scheduled to begin in May, will soon begin, the situation of oversupply of crude oil will also be alleviated. As a result, oil prices have skyrocketed and copper prices have climbed higher within the day. From a fundamental point of view, the first quantum cut Panamanian copper mine annual production guidelines, from the supply side to provide support for copper prices. At present, Luntong receives Yang, and there is still a 5 -, 10-and 40-day moving average support below. Next, let's look at the eurozone consumer confidence index in April and the economic sentiment index in April. In the evening, we will focus on the first quarter GDP data of the United States and the policy decisions of the Federal Reserve to test whether Lungong can stand at 5250 yuan / ton.

Today, the main force of Shanghai copper skyhopping opened at 42410 yuan / ton in the morning. After the opening, the price of copper rose to 42640 yuan / ton in the short term. After a slight fall, it rose to a daily high of 42720 yuan / ton again. Then Shanghai copper turned down, slowly down, closing at 42610 yuan / ton at midday. In the afternoon, copper prices fell to a daily low of 42380 yuan / ton due to short forces. Near the end of the day, copper prices closed at 42510 yuan / ton, up 210 yuan / ton, or 0.50%. The daily position of the main contract of Shanghai Copper decreased by 126 hands to 113000 hands, mainly by short positions, and the trading volume decreased by 4767 hands to 67000 hands. Shanghai Copper 2005 contract significantly reduced positions, day reduction of more than 7000 hands, to 44000 hands, mainly for short reduction; long-month contracts to increase positions at different levels. Shanghai copper jumped high today, mainly affected by the rise in oil prices. API crude oil inventory data for the week of April 24 released today, inventory growth was lower than expected, at the same time, as countries plan to lift anti-epidemic restrictions, the market for crude oil demand recovery expectations strengthened. Oil prices continued last night's rally in the morning, boosting copper prices. Fundamental news also supports copper. First Quantum cut its copper guide this year by 75000 tons to 755000-805000 tons. Today, Shanghai copper closed in Yang, but failed to hold on to 42700 yuan / ton, and then fell back to the 42500 level, and the long and short sides left the scene one after another because of the risk aversion mood before the festival. Today, the Federal Reserve interest rate resolution and the US first quarter GDP data will be released soon, the market has expected the economy to shrink, focusing on how the Fed has used a variety of policy tools to continue to release liquidity to support the economic recovery.

Today, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot contract rose 110 yuan / ton to 140 yuan / ton, Pingshui copper transaction price 42780 yuan / ton ~ 42850 yuan / ton, Shengshui copper transaction price 42790 yuan / ton ~ 42860 yuan / ton. Shanghai copper low open high moved up to 42700 yuan / ton. The rebound on the disk has led to the eagerness of the holder to change cash. The opening quotation has been quickly reduced from 140 yuan / ton to 110 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction in the market is concentrated in 110 to 130 yuan / ton. there is almost no price difference between brands. Downstream continues to maintain immediate demand, centralized buyers have been significantly reduced, there are still some importers actively ship part of the low-end import of copper, wet copper slightly lower quotation up 60 ~ 80 yuan / ton. Copper futures performance on the strong side, in 42000 yuan / ton above shock finishing, holders near the water near 42000 yuan has no intention to continue to reduce prices, so the lower source of flat water copper supply has been few people out, traders based on pre-festival risk aversion factors, few receiving groups, and the festival period is still expected to have a large number of imported copper to the warehouse, so the final trading time before May Day will be more obvious, risk aversion will be the main body of trading guidance. In the afternoon, the plate fell back slightly, but the market has further shown no obvious demand, and there is no obvious sign of losing goods. The quotation is stable at 120-130 yuan / ton for flat copper and 130-140 yuan / ton for good copper. The center of gravity of the transaction price dropped slightly to 42700-42760 yuan / ton.

Aluminum: aluminum opened at $1504 a tonne on Wednesday morning. In the Asian session, Lun aluminum in 1510 US dollars / ton short horizontal trading, waiting for the domestic Shanghai aluminum opening immediately followed the rise, the high rushed to 1515.5 US dollars / ton, in the afternoon, under pressure after the daily average opened all the way down the trend, as of the Asian close, Lun aluminum at 1506.5 US dollars / ton; Entering the European trading session, Lun aluminum maintained a decline, as of 17:21 Beijing time, Lun aluminum closed at 1504 US dollars / ton, daily K line closed a small cross star, trading volume reduced by 10344 to 4796 hands, position reduced by 294 to 815000 hands, mainly short positions. It is expected that in the absence of obvious interference from macro news in the evening, Lun aluminum will still fluctuate around the 5 / 20 moving average, with an operating range of US $1500-1520 per ton, so it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the long short situation in the market. Shanghai aluminum main company 2006 contract opened in the morning at 12500 yuan / ton, after the opening more into the empty, the price rose 12700 yuan / ton; afternoon opening long profit-taking, a small correction, the end of the short to leave the market, the final closing price of 12585 yuan / ton, up 0.8%, trading volume increased 8172 hands to 97150 hands, unilateral position reduced 7549 hands to 116000 hands, mainly short positions. Day K line to close an inverted hammer Yang line, the top touch high 60-day moving average. Intraday 05-06 contract spread expanded to 180 yuan / ton, supported by strong fundamental demand, Shanghai aluminum led the rise in other basic metals, back structure has been further consolidated in recent months. Shanghai aluminum will maintain a strong shock before the material festival, and the operating range will be 12500-12700 yuan / ton tomorrow. There is a need to keep an eye on long-short risk aversion and marginal changes in demand.

Aluminum shock went up in the early afternoon. In the morning, the quotation of the holder in Shanghai Wuxi area was between 12760-12770 yuan / ton, the spot price rose 180 yuan / ton compared with yesterday, the rising water was concentrated between 60-80 yuan / ton, the morning market trading was more active, the holder was active in shipping, the middleman was also more willing to receive the goods, aluminum rose all the way up after 10: 30, and the quotation by the holder began to concentrate around 12800-12810 yuan / ton, but the transaction heat in the later market fell back. After the aluminum boom, the shippers are hesitant to ship the goods. Although the middlemen have the demand to receive the goods, it is difficult to close the deal at this time. Due to the proximity of the May Day holiday, there is a demand for goods downstream today, and the enthusiasm for receiving goods has increased compared with the previous two days. In the afternoon, aluminum first suppressed and then rose, individual cardholders quoted in the vicinity of 12790 yuan / ton, the disk surface rising water near 70 yuan / ton, there are few transactions.

Lead: within the day, Lun lead opened at 1648 US dollars / ton. In the Asian period, Lun lead basically consolidated around the daily average, entering the European period, the concussion amplitude of Lun lead increased the market, and the top pressure on the 10-day moving average, the bottom of the 5-day moving average, as of 17: 11, Lun lead temporarily closed at $1648.5 / ton, up $5.50 / ton, up 0.37%. Lun lead temporary barefoot small positive line, low back up, each EMA maintained a downward trend, expected night Lun lead upstream space is limited, basically in the 5, 10 days moving average range.

Within the day, the Shanghai lead main force 2006 contract opened at 13800 yuan / ton, the whole day basic pressure daily average line narrow range concussion, finally closed at 13745 yuan / ton, the position reduced 433 hands to 25340 hands, down 95 yuan / ton, down 0.69%. Shanghai lead closed in the small negative line, the lower moving average densely formed a strong support, however, the fundamentals became weak, the stock preparation before the festival was limited, only the large battery factory took action, at the same time, the new production increment of the recycled lead supply end in May was significant. It is expected that the downward shift of the center of gravity of lead price in May is a high probability event.

Shanghai market Jinsha lead 1438514405 yuan / ton, Shanghai lead 2005 contract price 380400 yuan / ton, Wuxi market south, Shuikoushan 14305-14355 yuan / ton, Shanghai lead 2005 contract 300350 yuan / ton quotation. Due to the limited supply of goods in circulation, the holders of weak consolidation, and the general downstream procurement demand, coupled with the expansion of the price advantage of recycled refined lead, the supply and demand of bulk single market is weak.

South China lead in Guangdong market is 14130 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead is 80 yuan / ton. Henan Yuguang, Wanyang and other smelters are mainly Jiaochang single, Jinli 14130 yuan / ton, average price of SMM1# lead 80 yuan / ton, Jinli, Wanyangjiang copper 14100 yuan / ton, SMM1# lead 50 yuan / ton, Jiang copper 14150 yuan / ton, SMM1# lead 14150 yuan / ton. Today lead prices continue to weaken, downstream began to prepare storage for the festival, but it is understood that most of the current procurement of recycled lead, primary lead enterprises scattered single liter water quotation has weakened.

Zinc: Geneva Zinc opened at US $1935 / ton, boosted by the lower US index at the beginning of the session, and Lun Zinc quickly rose to US $1945 / ton, but the rally could not be maintained. The center of gravity of Lun Zinc moved slightly down to a narrow range around US $1940 / ton, and the center of gravity rose slightly near European trading time. By 16: 50, Lun Zinc closed up at US $1945.5 / ton, up US $10.50 / ton, or 0.54%. Lun zinc station adheres to the short moving average, the upper 60-day moving average suppression has not yet been touched, LME zinc stocks increased by 675 tons during the day, there is no more good news release from the overseas epidemic, and the rally is expected to remain weak.

Intraday Shanghai zinc main force 2006 contract opened at 16245 yuan / ton, long short alternately increase positions, the game showed a slight stalemate, Shanghai zinc operation center of gravity further lifted to 16280 yuan / ton narrow range arrangement, up and down space less than 50 yuan / ton, near the close, long warehouse entry, Shanghai zinc quickly rose to a recent two-month high to 16415 yuan / ton, part of the single rapid stop profit, Shanghai zinc tail fell back. At the end of the day, it closed up at 16365 yuan / ton, up 240 yuan / ton, or 1.49%. Trading volume increased by 16068 hands to 100000 hands, and positions increased by 844 hands to 85904 hands. All the averages on the Shanghai zinc station, the operation is relatively strong, the recent funds actively to the far month layout, July contract daily position more than 10,000 hands, it is expected that tomorrow Shanghai zinc will complete the main force for the month, at the same time June / August difference rapidly expanded to 200 yuan / ton, the mining end story continues to ferment, the impact has spread to the smelting end, under the catalysis of the supply side story, the market interest is higher, it is expected that the strong trend of zinc will continue.

Shanghai Zinc mainstream transaction in 16400-16450 yuan / ton, Shuangyan, Chi Hong in 16450-16500 yuan / ton; Shuangyan and Chihong quoted 100-110 yuan / ton in May; Shuangyan and Chihong reported 150-160 yuan / ton in May; Shuangyan and Chihong traded in 16320-16370 yuan / ton. The operation center of Shanghai Zinc 2005 contract moved up further, closing at 16320 yuan / ton in the morning market. As the holiday approaches, the market will ship mainly, the domestic price in the morning market will rise to about 120-130 yuan / ton, the Shuangyan newspaper will rise to 150-160 yuan / ton, the willingness to receive the goods is poor, the market transaction activity is not high, and the quotation is lowered again. The domestic quotation is lowered to about 110 yuan / ton, but the consignee tends to pick up the water by about 100 yuan / ton. there are certain differences, but some traders are willing to let the price to promote the transaction. The actual transaction in the market is concentrated in the rising water of 100-110 yuan / ton, the purchase willingness of the lower reaches is still not high, only do just-in-demand procurement, because the order is not good some enterprises during the May Day holiday, Shanghai stock market pre-holiday goods is not obvious, intra-day transactions are generally flat compared with yesterday.

The mainstream transaction in Ningbo was 16430-16530 yuan / ton, and the price difference between Ningbo and Shanghai ordinary brands narrowed from 50 yuan / ton to 40 yuan / ton. Today, the market rose, traders actively shipped, the market circulation of goods is more abundant. In the first period of the morning, the offer of the holder was lower than yesterday. Tiefeng reported a rise of about 150 yuan / ton to the May contract. Kirin reported a rise of 170 yuan / ton for the May contract, and will report 180 yuan / ton for the May contract. However, the transaction was very light, and entering the second trading session, some of the holders lowered Kirin's offer to around 150 yuan / ton for the May rise. On the whole, due to the rise of the disk today, the willingness to wait and see downstream is stronger, in addition, due to the poor orders of most alloy enterprises in Ningbo market, May Day holiday production is also suspended, enterprises rarely have a plan to prepare the warehouse. Overall, today's deal is worse than yesterday's.

The mainstream transaction of Guangdong zinc was 16280-16340 yuan / ton, and the quotation focused on 20-50 yuan / ton of Shanghai zinc 2006 contract. The discount of 110 yuan / ton in Guangdong stock market was 40 yuan less than that of the previous trading day. In the first trading session, futures prices continued to rise, the initial holder price is still high, but the high price is still high, the market quotation has been lowered one after another, but the overall price adjustment range is not large, a small number of transactions between market traders, Kirin, Mengzi, Huize, Tiefeng quotation on the Shanghai zinc June contract rose 40-50 yuan / ton. In the second trading period, the downstream fear of high less mining, the transaction boost is limited, the price is basically on the low side, individual brand quotation is lower, market trading is better than the first trading period. Kirin, Mengzi, Huize and Tiefeng quoted 30-40 yuan / ton for June contract and 20 yuan / ton for flying dragon. Kylin, Mengzi, Huize, Tiefeng mainstream transaction in 16280-16340 yuan / ton.

The mainstream transaction of zinc ingots in Tianjin market was 16590-17680 yuan / ton, and that of ordinary brands was 16590-16670 yuan / ton. The 2005 contract rose 200 yuan / ton to 350 yuan / ton, and the water in Tianjin was about 190 yuan / ton higher than that in Shanghai. Today, Shanghai zinc shock, the spot market downgraded discount quotation, the quotation is more unified, the ordinary brand lark newspaper in the 05 contract up 300-250 yuan / ton, red newspaper in the 05 contract up 300 yuan / ton, Chi Hong reported in the 05 contract up 250 yuan / ton, imported KZ reported in the 05 contract rose 300-200 yuan / ton, high-priced brand Zijin reported a rise of 350 yuan / ton on the May contract. Today, zinc prices fluctuated, the spot market initially maintained the discount quotation, but the transaction was not good and then lowered the discount quotation. The spot circulation in the market today has improved compared with the previous period, among which kz and Guangdong zinc ingots have arrived one after another; downstream, after today's price rise, the downstream willingness to receive goods is relatively poor, and then the discount is down, slightly better. On the whole, transactions today are weaker than yesterday. The transaction of zinc ingot is near 16540-16620 yuan / ton.

Tin: after the opening of US $15345 / ton today, the Lunxi electronic plate remained briefly arranged near the opening price at the beginning of the day, and then quickly fell to US $15235 / ton. After the end of the sub-session to the opening of the European market, Lunxi rebounded to the bottom of the market. By 17: 30, the latest price of Lunxi was $15385 / ton, showing a small positive line, located between the 5-day moving average and 60-day moving average. resistance above Lunxi is expected to be near the 60-day moving average of $15500 / ton. This evening, we can pay attention to the changes in EIA crude oil stocks in the United States for the week ended April 24 (10,000 barrels).

Shanghai tin 2006 contract opened early today, by the long strength reduction as the leading long and short forces have reduced positions, the initial pressure down to a daily low of 129250 yuan / ton, and then Shanghai tin to maintain a low center of gravity by short positions affected by the impact of a small rise, finally closed at 129830 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan / ton, down 0.02%, trading volume 17487, position 12554 hands, down 4145 hands. Shanghai tin closed today with a negative line, the physical part of the bottom by the 5-day moving average support, Shanghai tin short-term support is expected to be near the 60-day moving average of 128000 yuan / ton.

Spot market, today quoted 133000135000 yuan / ton. Today, the tin plate in Shanghai showed a relatively weak concussion trend, near the May Day holiday and the end of the month, market demand was relatively weak, only a small number of downstream enterprises and traders received goods cautiously. The overall transaction atmosphere of Shanghai tin spot market is generally weak. Shanghai tin 2006 contract set Yunxi rising water 5000-5500 yuan / ton, ordinary cloud word rising water 4500 yuan / ton, small brand rising water 3000 yuan / ton.

Nickel: Lunni, which opened at $12320 a tonne today, delayed its opening trend late last night, swinging from $12300 to a peak of $12370 a tonne before continuing to operate below the daily moving average, falling twice to $12195 a tonne in the 60-day moving average. Entering the European market period, Lunni quickly broke through the daily average, rising to 12250-12300 US dollars / ton range shock. As of 17:20, Lunni closed temporarily at $12280 / tonne, down $50 / tonne, or 0.41%. A small shade column was temporarily recorded, and the lower shadow line crossed on the 10th / 60th moving average. Daily turnover decreased by 1072 hands to 6293 hands, while position increased by 2049 hands to 221000 hands. Lunni is expected to remain at $11800-$12600 in the future, focusing on the Fed's interest rate resolution and whether there is a stimulus policy in the evening.

Shanghai nickel, the main force to complete the month. As Lunni received a small pillar last night, the Shanghai Nickel 2007 contract opened high at 101280 yuan / ton in the morning market. Shortly after the opening of the market, it fluctuated violently in the area of the daily moving average, reaching an early peak of 101480 yuan / ton, the highest point in the day. Since the second trading session in the morning market, Shanghai nickel has continued to operate below the daily moving average. The lowest decline in the morning market to 100180 yuan / ton, although stabilized in the afternoon, but rebounded to 100830 yuan / ton below the daily average, the trend turned down again, the disk gradually turned from red to green. After the long and short sides left the market in late trading, the Shanghai Nickel 07 contract finally closed at 100150 yuan / ton, down 0.4 percent from yesterday's settlement price. The trading volume was reduced by 6579 hands to 256000 hands, and the position was reduced by 1631 hands to 60384 hands. Today, the time of the domestic two sessions is determined, and the growth of foreign crude oil inventory is lower than expected, but due to the proximity of the domestic holiday, most of the funds choose to leave the market, so today Shanghai nickel is still high and low. Tomorrow, the long and empty sides are expected to remain mainly risk-averse.

Today, SMM1 Electrolytic Nickel quoted 100800-102600 yuan / ton, the average price rose 850 yuan / ton yesterday. Today, Shanghai nickel opened higher and lower gradually, but the center of gravity is still running above 100000, the spot discount is more stable than yesterday, trading also continues to be light. Russian nickel to Shanghai nickel 2006 contract reported 100 yuan / ton to Pingshui, the source of discount goods are sporadic transactions, Pingshui quotation is more difficult to ship, although the afternoon price continues to decline, but trading is still not active, some traders continue to lower the discount to promote transactions. Most traders responded today that trading volume was poor. Jinchuan nickel to Shanghai nickel 2006 contract rose 1300-1400 yuan / ton, there is a little circulation between traders, downstream demand is weak and the market low price supply is difficult to inquire. Jinchuan ex-factory price quoted 101600 yuan / ton, but the disk gradually lower, and the Shanghai area continues to be out of stock, it is expected that traders are less willing to receive goods. Nickel beans to Shanghai Nickel 2006 contract is still reported at 700 yuan / ton, supply and demand are both weak.


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