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SMM basic Metals spot Trading Weekly Review (2020.04.20-2020.04.24)
Apr 24,2020 22:25CST
translation
Source:SMM
SMM basic Metals spot Trading Weekly Review (2020.04.20-2020.04.24)
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM, 24 April:

This week, basic metals were affected by the disturbance of international crude oil prices, and there was a trend of rising and falling back. WTI plunged to a negative value in May, then spread to far-month contracts, and global commodities were dragged down. In China, because of the sharp decline in (LPR) in the central bank loan market, the one-year and five-year LPR were cut by 20 and 10 basis points respectively from the previous period, boosting the basic metals. Under the recovery of crude oil, the low level of basic metals rebounded and recovered some of the decline. SMMI fell 0.11% per week. Among them, the worst decline was zinc, Lun zinc four consecutive negative, Shanghai zinc weekly decline 1.9%, spot rising water rose, SMMI.Zn weekly fell 1.48%. Lun copper fell from $5200 to $5100. Shanghai copper fluctuated in the range of 41000-42000 yuan / ton. The spot rose strongly, and SMMI fell 0.84% over the week. Lead and tin performance is similar, Shanghai lead probe low and then rise, spot to maintain a high rising water pattern, SMMI week down 0.18%, Shanghai tin in the 12.2-128000 yuan range shock, spot water first rose and then suppressed, SMMI.Sn week fell 0.19%. Within the week, aluminum and nickel remained resistant and rebounded rapidly. Nickel in Shanghai struggled between moving averages around 100000. The decline was limited, the spot rose steadily, and the low replenishment transaction improved during the sharp fall. SMMI.Ni rose 3.47% during the week. Shanghai aluminum fluctuated in the range of 12000-12500 yuan. Spot water rose from 20 yuan to 60 yuan. During the week, the low trading volume was large, and SMMI.Al rose 2.5%. Early next week will usher in the domestic two sessions, the market looks forward to the latest policy guidance, market confidence will further boost, next week will approach May Day short holiday, pre-holiday consumption is expected, various metals continue to go to the warehouse cycle, prices will therefore be supported to pick up momentum, but guard against the final risk aversion before the festival.

 

Copper: this week Lun copper failed to continue last week's rally, the center of gravity is slightly lower than last week. It is mainly affected by the collapse of international crude oil prices. The price of the US crude oil WTI5 monthly futures contract plunged sharply and even historically fell into a negative range, offsetting the optimism brought about by the resumption of the US economic plan. The panic caused by the negative monthly contract price of WTI5 has been transmitted to the far-monthly contracts in the international crude oil market, aggravating the market concern about demand, the market risk aversion is strong, and copper prices have also fallen sharply. Monday's copper opened at $5197.5 / ton, maintained above $5200 / ton for a short period of time, peaking at $5248 / ton. Copper prices then fell all the way below the $5200 mark, hitting as low as $4953 a tonne. The price of crude oil stopped falling and rebounded in the middle of the week as market expectations of further production cuts, superimposed tensions in the United States and Iraq and increased market expectations for further economic stimulus measures introduced by governments, funds re-flowed into commodities, and copper prices got rid of the decline of the previous few days and rebounded. Copper prices were affected by insufficient macroeconomic confidence over the weekend to give up their gains, and the upper 40-day moving average showed technical pressure. There is no significant change in fundamentals, and supply-side tensions continue to support copper prices below. This week, Lunlun Copper held a position of 259000 hands; trading volume increased by 14000 hands to 66000 hands. On Friday, copper fell 2 per cent to around $5100 a tonne, with a 40-day moving average above. On the technical side, there is still pressure for copper prices to break through upward, and new energy is needed to push up the price.

This week, the main trend of copper in Shanghai is V-shaped, and the center of gravity is basically flat compared with last week. China's central bank loan market quotation rate (LPR) fell sharply at the beginning of the week, one-year and five-year LPR fell by 20 and 10 basis points respectively from the previous period, which was significantly good for copper prices. Copper prices rose sharply, opening at 41860 yuan / ton in Shanghai on Monday, reaching a peak of 42630 yuan / ton. However, the volatility of the oil market played a leading role in the trend of copper in Shanghai this week. Dragged down by international crude oil prices, commodities fell across the board. The main force of copper in Shanghai also fell sharply, opening low for two consecutive days, giving up all the gains at the beginning of the week, with the lowest point falling 40350 yuan / ton. Fundamentals, supply and domestic depot to form a support for copper prices. The National Bureau of Statistics announced that China's refined copper production in March was 2.5 percent lower than that of the same period last year, indicating that China's copper smelting and production activities have indeed been hit by the epidemic, and the tight supply of overseas mines has not improved. This week, Chilean miner Antofagasta announced that it would lower its 2020 copper production target due to the epidemic. Bonded inventories fell further this week. Overall, domestic copper supply is tight to support copper prices. Spurred by the reverse rise in oil prices a week later, Shanghai copper rebounded on Thursday, hitting the 42000 yuan / ton mark again, stabilizing its center of gravity at 41800 yuan / ton. At present, the main force of Shanghai copper closed at 41780 yuan / ton, a weekly decline of 1.18 per cent. This week, the main position of copper in Shanghai decreased by 1481 hands to 113000 hands, mainly for the reduction of long positions, while trading volume increased by 153000 hands to 531000 hands. At present, Shanghai copper is close to the 5th, 10th and 40th moving averages, and the bulls show fear of heights at the 42000 yuan / ton level. They continue to pay attention to the policy trends of various countries and the situation of international oil prices, and test whether Shanghai copper can stand at the 42000 yuan / ton level.

The spot market, which rose this week compared with last week, continued to rise. Market turnover showed a stalemate during the week. The holder is more willing to offer, do not want to take the initiative to reduce the price of rising water. At the beginning of the week, due to the sharp rise in copper in Shanghai, fear of high downstream, cautious demand, the market concentrated in the rising water 130 yuan / ton-rising water 160 yuan / ton. Copper fell in Shanghai for two days in the middle of the week, and the demand of downstream enterprises improved to promote the improvement of transactions. The holders raised the rising water to 170-190 yuan / ton, so it was difficult to press the price. With the rebound of copper futures prices, the downstream buying and exuberance fell again, basically maintaining the need. Holders of high prices this week, while downstream enterprise demand remains in urgent need, most of the week led by traders, the characteristics of saws on both sides of the supply and demand sides are obvious.

 

Aluminum: Zhou Nelun aluminum volatility has narrowed compared with previous weeks, low to $1479.5 / ton, high to $1530 / ton, around the 5-10-20 daily moving average group. Monday to Tuesday affected by the collapse in crude oil, Lun aluminum reached a low level; On Wednesday, Lun aluminum followed the Shanghai aluminum rally, repaired the previous two days of decline, and reached a high of US $1530 / ton on Thursday, but it was obvious that there was a lot of resistance to US $1530 / ton. Lun aluminum ran in the first line of US $1510 / ton after a slight drop on Thursday. As of 19:01 Beijing time, Lun aluminum closed at US $1512.5 / ton, up 0.47% per week, trading volume decreased by 812 hands to 56007 hands, position increased by 24175 hands to 798000 hands, mainly by long positions. The Zhou K line is temporarily closed with a small positive line. Recently, there are many macro uncertainties, Lun aluminum is subject to greater probability of fluctuation, Shanghai aluminum trend is relatively strong or can form a certain support for Lun aluminum, but it is an indisputable fact that overseas demand is weak, and it is expected that the range of Zhou Lun aluminum will run at 1470-1540 US dollars / ton.

During the week, the main Shanghai aluminum opened at 12335 yuan / ton, closed at 12285 yuan / ton, down 125 yuan / ton, down 1.01%, trading volume increased by 88753 hands to 551000 hands, position reduced by 11594 hands to 124000 hands, mainly long positions. The Zhou K line receives a long lower shadow line and runs between the 5 and 10 day moving averages. At the beginning of the week, the main Shanghai aluminum opened high, and rushed to a high of 12460 yuan / ton during the week. Then, affected by the collapse of crude oil, Shanghai aluminum fell with the basic metals, closed a negative line on Tuesday and reached the lowest level of 12005 yuan / ton during the week. Wednesday to Friday, Shanghai aluminum performance range shock, due to strong recovery in demand, the disk was strongly supported, although the above 12500 yuan / ton pressure position is difficult to break, but there has always been no further exploration. Next week is the last spot trading week before the May Day holiday. From a fundamental point of view, under the expected intensity of demand, the space below Shanghai aluminum is still relatively limited, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether there is a risk aversion mentality among short sellers. Shanghai aluminum may have the possibility of rising; in addition, we need to be vigilant against the disturbance of the trend of Shanghai aluminum. It is expected that the main Shanghai aluminum company will run at 12100-12600 yuan / ton next week.

Spot transactions in East China are more active this week. The quotation of the holder in Shanghai and Wuxi is between 12240-12500 yuan / ton, the rising water on the disk is between 10-60 yuan / ton, and the spot price in Hangzhou is between 12250-12550 yuan / ton. From this week's trading situation, traders trading is very active, a large household daily procurement plan volume is higher than usual, the market sentiment response is enthusiastic, the holder shipment is positive, the middleman receives the goods is also more active, the spot rising water performance is strong, because the market demand is OK, the rising water has the daily rise sign, from the beginning of the week near 20 yuan / ton to Friday's 50 yuan / ton rise. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm this week is OK, low in the middle of the week and Friday to receive more goods. Spot transactions are expected to remain active before May Day.

 

Lead: this week, Lun lead entered the downward channel, the top under pressure in each EMA; at the beginning of the week, Lun lead tried to rebound at a low level, but hit a pressure drop near the 5-day moving average, and in the next few days, as overseas market consumption weakened, the upward movement of Lun lead was obviously insufficient, and closed in three consecutive negative, technically broken position, market sentiment eased on Friday, Lun lead temporarily stopped falling to stabilize, as of Friday Lun lead reported at 1648 US dollars / ton. Next week, overseas can pay attention to the consumer confidence index of the United States Conference Board in April, the monthly rate of contract sales of existing homes in the United States in March, the official manufacturing PMI of China in April, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits from the United States to April 25 (10,000 people), and the ISM manufacturing industry in the United States in April. PMI, has more economic data next week. Judging from the current epidemic control situation in Europe and the United States, although overseas auto companies plan to return to work, the expected operating rate is difficult to perform well. A limited boost to real consumption, overseas lead prices from the fundamental point of view there is no strong driving upward logic, on the contrary, consumption expectations pessimistic or further lower prices, Lun lead may be 1605-1685 US dollars / ton.

Shanghai lead probe rebounded this week, the overall trend is still in the box shock. At the beginning of the week, the Shanghai lead shock weakened, the low once reached 13425 yuan / ton, due to the tight supply of goods in the market, coupled with the low inventory, short more cautious, in the box low choice to leave, lead price shock rebounded, recovered the decline, as of Friday, Shanghai lead reported at 13740 yuan / ton. Enter next week, near May Day holiday, heard that some small and medium-sized battery enterprises holiday, or lead to some consumption losses, but large enterprises conventional production, expected to be more active before the festival, coupled with the current domestic supply is still tight, the whole day lead prices to maintain a strong reality and weak expectations of the conflict, the trend we think the probability of shock market is greater, the operation is recommended 13500 yuan 14000 yuan / ton range high sell low suction. Shanghai lead 2006 contract will continue to fluctuate in the 1360013950 yuan / ton range.

Spot price 14050-14450 yuan / ton this week. This week's lead price range narrow shock, the spot market performance basically maintained last week's situation, the primary lead refinery inventory is still low, mostly long single trading, individual refinery bulk single quotation to maintain high water quotation, as of Friday bulk single mainstream market SMM1# lead average price rose 50-150 yuan / ton, the trade market, due to the limited supply of circulation, holders mostly follow up the rising water, as of Friday, Reported to the 2005 contract water increase of 350-450 yuan / ton; Recycled lead in the market this week to maintain a tight balance, the mainstream of SMM1# lead average price discount 100 yuan / ton to flat water quoted factory, consumer end, this week battery enterprises mostly bargain on demand procurement, but the market as a whole looks better in the first half of the week, the second half of the week cautious.

 

Zinc: this week, zinc rushed high and fell back, and the trend of four consecutive yin in the week was weak. Monday Lun zinc prices stand firm 40 moving average after continuing to break through, the price once rose to 1969 US dollars / ton, but the upper selling pressure is heavier, the price has fallen back slightly, the overall high shock is dominant. Affected by the collapse in crude oil, the market risk aversion increased, prices fell sharply, in the 1900 US dollars / ton line slightly sorted out, the price center of gravity fell again, once fell to 1883.5 US dollars / ton, but the bottom was supported by the 20-day moving average, prices stopped falling and rebounded to recover some of the decline. In the later stage, Lun zinc followed the oil price rebound and waited for an opportunity to break through, but above it was suppressed by the adhesion of the 5-and 10-day moving average. after the price shock went down, the price was arranged along a narrow range of 1900 US dollars / ton. However, according to inventory data released by LME, on the 23rd, Lun zinc stocks increased by 2475 tons again, breaking through the 100000 ton mark, and zinc prices weakened sharply again, once again falling to US $1865.5 / ton, giving up all the gains last week. In Asian trading on Friday, Lun Zinc was led by domestic prices and underpinned by prices, but upward pressure remained strong amid weak overseas consumption, with prices fluctuating narrowly between $1870 and $1890 a tonne.

The price of zinc in Shanghai fell back this week, and the price as a whole was relatively resistant to decline. At one point, the main contract fell below the 16000 yuan integer mark on Monday, but as domestic demand and inventories continued to decline, bulls pulled up prices, rising as high as 16240 yuan per ton, the highest since mid-March. Affected by the collapse in crude oil on Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc opened low, falling as low as 15535 yuan / ton, but the bottom was supported by the 20-day moving average, and the price was slightly repaired. With the stabilization of crude oil prices, Shanghai zinc began to rebound, from a technical point of view, the top by 5, 10 EMA adhesion suppression, the bottom by 20, 40 days moving average support, the price range is dominated by shocks. According to domestic inventory data released by smm on Friday, the weekly inventory ratio fell sharply by 25700 tons, although some of the amount was contributed by inventory transfer, but on the whole, zinc consumption in Tianjin, East China and other places was relatively good, coupled with the recent continuous reduction in zinc mine processing fees, all of which provided support to domestic zinc prices. The main contracts once increased their positions to 15900 yuan / ton, but as the price rose, the number of departures increased. Prices fell slightly, with the main contract closing at 15825 yuan per tonne, down 1.9 per cent on the week.

This week, the domestic contract for 05 in Shanghai market was transferred from 100-120 yuan / ton to 220-230 yuan / ton, and Shuangyan and Chihong to 05 contract from 130-140 yuan / ton to 250-260 yuan / ton. Zinc price collation and operation, smelter shipments are normal, this week long single expiration, in order to fill a long single gap, trading activity between traders is high, market quotation is gradually raised, rapidly rose to 220-230 yuan / ton in the middle of the week, transactions between traders remain active, and downstream due to high absolute prices to maintain just-in-demand procurement. Near the end of most of the long orders over the weekend, with some traders release goods at low prices, spot rising water quickly down to 160-180 yuan / ton, part of the next monthly ticket or enter the market circulation, compared with the current monthly ticket deposit 10-20 yuan / ton price difference, downstream to maintain on-demand procurement, this week trading between traders contributed to the main trading volume, the overall transaction has warmed up compared with last week.

The price difference between Ningbo and Shanghai has widened from 40 yuan / ton to 50 yuan / ton this week, and the price difference between Ningbo and Shanghai has widened from 40 yuan / ton to 50 yuan / ton this week, and the price difference between Ningbo and Shanghai has widened from 40 yuan / ton to 50 yuan / ton this week. Early this week market transactions continue last week's quotation, the shippers are more willing to ship, the basic quotation is in the ordinary brand to the May contract rose 150-170 yuan / ton near, the downstream meets the fall to make up the storehouse will be stronger, the overall transaction situation is better. On Wednesday, with the Shanghai market due to the large single demand of traders and the rising water of the market, the Ningbo market followed, and the overall rising water rose to 270 yuan / ton. However, the disk rebounded, and the downstream held a wait-and-see attitude towards high rising water. The willingness to buy was poor. In the second half of the week, the rising water in the Ningbo market fell back slightly, and the transaction was concentrated around 220 yuan / ton for the May contract. In the second half of the week, the supply of goods in the Ningbo market tightened. The space of rising water and lowering water is relatively limited. Overall, most of the downstream this week to wait and see, Ningbo market transactions slightly worse than last week.

This week, the price of zinc in Guangdong market focused on the Shanghai zinc 2006 contract discount of 20 yuan / ton to 90 yuan / ton, Guangdong market than Shanghai stock market discount of 140 yuan / ton than last Friday 10 yuan. This week, traders and some lower reaches of East China picked up a large number of goods from Guangdong warehouses, mainly to Shanghai, Ningbo, Tianjin and other places. The increase in inventory transfer also led to a sharp decline in inventory in Guangdong within the week, at the same time, the volume of goods delivered to warehouses this week also declined greatly, the market was tightened, and the overall price of the holder was mainly sold, accompanied by the expansion of the back of the next month's contract in the same month, the price of the Shanghai zinc 2006 contract continued to rise, Kirin, Mengzi, Tiefeng, etc., changed from 20 yuan at the beginning of the week to 80-90 yuan / ton. During the week, the downstream price has a replenishment, the overall demand is relatively stable, but the acceptance of high-rise water supply is poor. It is understood that in the near future, the total volume of goods issued by Guangdong to East China and Tianjin will exceed 10,000 tons, which will provide support for the spot transaction price in Guangdong.

The contract for zinc 2005 in Shanghai rose 220 yuan to 400 yuan / ton this week. The rising water in Tianjin stock market rose from 150 yuan / ton last week to 190 yuan / ton in Shanghai stock market, and the rising water in Tianjin continued to rise this week. At the beginning of this week, zinc prices rose to a high level after falling back to 15600 yuan / ton, Tianjin spot rose to 230 yuan / ton to 350 yuan / ton, but after the zinc price fell, the downstream receiving sentiment did not improve significantly, still need to purchase, the overall transaction is only slightly better than last week; In the middle of the week, the tension of spot circulation in Tianjin continued, among which the supply of Chihong brand zinc ingots gradually resumed. However, as a result of entering maintenance in May, the overall shipment volume decreased, superimposed some brands cherished the sale, the current goods rose and the discount remained high, and the transaction was lower than that at the beginning of the week. The rising water climbed to 300 yuan / ton to 400 yuan / ton on Friday morning, causing it to rise to a high level due to the small volume of shipments in the Zijin spot market and the better superposition of downstream demand. Overall, the lower reaches of the week to maintain the need for procurement, of which Zijin brand transaction is better. Into next week, Guangdong zinc ingots and imported zinc ingots arrived in large quantities, will ease the spot shortage in Tianjin.

 

Tin: this week, the Lunxi electronic disk has shown an overall concussive trend this week, and the center of gravity has shifted down a bit. At the beginning of the week, when crude oil stocks were too high after opening at $15195 / ton, crude oil prices experienced an epic collapse and once fell to negative numbers. Lunxi electronic market trend followed the oil price volatility and fell to a low of $14600 / ton during the week. Kuwait said on Thursday that it had begun cutting oil supplies to the international market before OPEC+ 's new production cut agreement took effect on May 1. And Oklahoma, the fourth-largest oil producer in the United States, has also taken action to help oil companies cut production, and its energy regulator says companies can close wells without losing their leases, a preliminary victory for struggling U. S. oil producers to seek relief from the market rout. Crude oil prices have gradually rebounded, and Lunxi has followed suit, but then fell back again, with the overall focus moving down. As of 19: 30, the latest price for Lunxi was $15005 a tonne. Weekly levels fell $170 / tonne, or 1.12 per cent, with 1022 hands traded and 17248 positions held, down 91 hands. This week, Lunxi closed with a small negative line, with the top part of the entity bearing pressure on the 10-day moving average and the lower shadow line near the 5-day moving average. In terms of indicators, the daily line level KDJ and MACD indexes are somewhat empty, the KDJ index opens downward, and the histogram above the zero axis of MACD index is reduced.

This week Shanghai tin main force 2006 contract overall maintains the high concussion consolidation situation. At the beginning of the week affected by the decline in crude oil and Lunxi prices, Shanghai tin market after the long and short forces have reduced short positions affect the pressure fall, down to the low point of 122200 yuan / ton during the week. Subsequently, as a result of crude oil and Lunxi prices rose, Shanghai tin market long position, the bottom of the market trend rebounded with the rise. Shanghai tin closed at 128870 yuan per ton on Friday. This week, a total of 730 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.57%, trading volume of 199000 hands, positions of 34549 hands, down 201 hands. The level of the weekly line is a small positive line, the lower part of the entity is supported by the 10-day moving average, and the lower shadow line is located near the 5-day moving average. In terms of indicators, most of the indicators at the daily and weekly levels showed good signs, but the MACD indicators at the daily level showed a trend of top deviation.

Spot prices in Shanghai and tin fluctuated relatively closely with the market this week. Affected by the high and wide shock of the tin plate in Shanghai during the week and the overall relative stability of the Shanghai tin spot rising water range, the Shanghai tin spot price fluctuates up and down with the Shanghai tin plate. At the beginning of the week, the pressure on the tin disk in Shanghai fell back, and the wait-and-see mood of the downstream enterprises was relatively strong and just needed to be purchased, and the overall transaction atmosphere in the Shanghai-tin spot market was general. Subsequently, the trend of tin in Shanghai was quickly affected by the price of crude oil, erasing the falling space in the previous two trading days, the traders in the Shanghai-tin market received relatively positive goods, and the buying and interest of downstream enterprises were still on the weak side due to the restriction of high prices. The overall transaction atmosphere in the Shanghai-tin spot market this week was average. On Friday, the spot price of Shanghai tin was 131000-133000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 132000 yuan / ton, down 250 yuan / ton from last Friday. In terms of discount, the spot water range during the week was generally more stable, only expanded when the session fell sharply on Wednesday. With the subsequent rise in the disk price, the Shanghai tin spot water range returned to the normal level. On Friday, the Shanghai tin 2006 contract set Yunxi rose 5, 000-5, 500 yuan / ton, ordinary cloud word rose 45, 000-5, 000 yuan / ton, and small brand rose near 4000 yuan / ton.

 

Nickel: this week Lunni rushed higher and fell back in the week, but the center of gravity is still higher than last week. Lunni opened at $12055 a tonne on Monday, driven by the strength of Shanghai Nickel, rising sharply, breaking the 60-day moving average pressure of $12535 / tonne, showing a strong upward momentum. However, the impact of the collapse in US crude oil prices, the market panic is heating up, the bulls have fled the market, and the WTI crude oil price fell negative on Tuesday night, triggering the Lunni plunge. Under the continuous selling pressure of short, Lunni not only gave up the previous increase, but also pierced the lower 40-day moving average support. With the decline in crude oil in the middle of the week, the macro mood gradually eased, Lunni began to stabilize and recover, but unable to break through the pressure at the 60 EMA again, and then continued to adjust wide shock. As of 20:50 on Friday, Lunni closed at $12180 a tonne, with weekly trading volume up 7358 hands to 27760 hands and positions up 2725 hands to 221000 hands. At present, although the Philippines extends the isolation period to some areas, but the actual impact on the supply side is relatively limited, while overseas consumption is weak, LME nickel stocks remain high, which is still a huge hidden danger to the upward trend of Nickel. Lunni is expected to remain between $11800 and $12500 a tonne next week.

Shanghai Nickel 2006 main contract opened at 98970 yuan / ton this week, stimulated by the domestic LPR interest rate cut news at the beginning of the week, market sentiment boosted, superimposed stainless steel prices strengthened, long energy was released, long plus positions rushed higher, on the same day broke through the 100000 gate and 60-day moving average pressure, reached 102000 yuan / ton line, the next day even higher 102500 yuan / ton, the highest point in the week. However, as overnight US crude oil fell to a negative value, market panic gradually heated up, short selling pressure, bulls have fled the market one after another, Shanghai nickel closed for two days in a row, 100000 level fell back to the 40-day moving average. Until Thursday, U. S. crude oil gradually showed a rebound, Shanghai nickel began to return to recover the decline, while some short positions moved for a long month, 07 contract trading volume began to exceed the main month. Although Shanghai Nickel once recovered the lost land at the 100000 gate on Friday, the long and short sides did not dare to fall in love with each other near the weekend. Shanghai Nickel finally closed at 99780 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.82% last week, and the red column of MACD continued to contract. Weekly trading volume decreased by 296000 hands to 1.201 million hands, weekly position reduced by 34810 hands to 76287 hands. At present, the Shanghai nickel 60-day moving average has been drilled below the 100000 level, the previous high point of 102500 yuan / ton line will become the Shanghai nickel upward pressure level, and more than 100000 below the moving average winding, Shanghai nickel is also more difficult to break away from the winding, it is expected that next week Shanghai nickel will continue the wide shock pattern, running between 96500-102500 yuan / ton.

The spot market price of nickel this week is between 97200 and 102350 yuan / ton. Since Monday, most traders have shifted from Shanghai Nickel 05 contract to 06 contract quotation. Due to the strong nickel price at the beginning of the week, Russian nickel was overquoted between 150 yuan and 100 yuan / ton, while the mid-week market price fell below 100, 000 yuan one after another. the Russian nickel to Shanghai nickel 2006 contract is overquoted in 50 to flat water, and on Friday, although the price returns to 100, 000, the Russian nickel promotion discount still does not have the big drop. On the other hand, in the transaction of Russian nickel, the downstream demand changed from strong to weak at the beginning of the week, the supply of low-cost goods on the market gradually decreased, and the willingness of traders to replenish the warehouse weakened. Jinchuan nickel, most of this week stable in the rising water above 1000 yuan / ton, and Tuesday factory prices lower than the plate, traders enthusiastically pick up the goods. On the other hand, with the nickel price plunging, it has also stimulated the replenishment demand of Jinchuan nickel end users. Jinchuan nickel inquiry is active in the middle of the week, and the trading volume is stronger than that of Russian nickel. But since Thursday, manufacturers in the Shanghai area did not arrive, so that Jinchuan supply circulation is tight, so the rising water held stable, transactions weakened. It is expected that Russian nickel will enter the market next week as a result of imports, and the discount range is expected to expand. Jinchuan nickel water due to less shipments, or will maintain between 1000-1500 yuan / ton.

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