4.23 minutes of SMM Aluminium Internal Morning meeting
Trading: yesterday the dollar index closed at 100.33, up 0.12%, recorded three Lianyang, Lun aluminum yesterday closed at $1520 / ton, up 30 yuan / ton, up 2.01%, Shanghai aluminum main force 2006 contract closed yesterday at 12195 yuan / ton, up 90 yuan / ton, up 0.74%, opening up more than 100 yuan / ton in morning trading. Macro: 1) according to real-time data from Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of about 08:20 Beijing time on April 23, the total number of confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia in the world has reached 2.6234 million. Among them, the United States has the largest number of new crown pneumonia infection cases totaled 839700 cases. (bearish) 2) US stocks rallied yesterday as the US Senate approved a $484 billion bailout package to deal with the new crown epidemic, crude oil rebounded sharply and market sentiment improved. The panic index fell 7.55%. On April 22, the Ministry of Finance, the State Administration of Taxation, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued a notice making it clear that new energy vehicles purchased from January 1, 2021 to December 31, 2022 will be exempted from vehicle purchase tax. The move is a concrete implementation of the measures to promote automobile consumption deployed at the executive meeting of the State Council on March 31. (Lido) fundamentals: 1) after three years and four months, the processing fee of Guangdong aluminum bar market broke through 1000 yuan again. Overall, the current round of Guangdong aluminum bar processing fee broke a thousand directly due to the market circulation of aluminum bars in short supply, quoted shipments of aluminum bar manufacturers and traders reduced, part of the downstream is in urgent need of aluminum bars to meet production orders. In the short term, Guangdong aluminum bar processing fees are unlikely to rise and fall sharply, the price center of gravity may be maintained at 900-1000 yuan / ton. (lido) 2) recently, the proportion of aluminum and water sold in upstream electrolytic aluminum plants has increased, the discharge of aluminum ingots has decreased, enterprises downstream of superimposed Gongyi, East and South China markets have gradually warmed up, the demand for raw materials has increased, and the supply of goods has been tightened in the short term. Spot water rose by about 50 yuan / ton compared with last week. It is reported that with the recovery of aluminum prices, some new production capacity and pre-maintenance capacity in Chongqing and Sichuan are gradually recovering. Spot side: yesterday, Shanghai Wuxi area holder quotation between 12250-12270 yuan / ton, compared with the previous day price is basically flat, plate rising water concentrated in 30-50 yuan / ton, a large customer received goods more actively in the afternoon, the market mood is better, the holder shipment is positive, the middleman receives the goods also to be active, the two sides trade well, the market transaction heat drops back after 11: 30. Downstream yesterday on-demand procurement-based, buying enthusiasm in general. East China as a whole closed well yesterday. Summary: although the macro air atmosphere has not improved significantly, but the domestic market sentiment has relatively improved. At present, the fundamentals are bearish factors there are signs of easing, short-term market demand surge, it is expected that the spot and futures markets before May Day to maintain a volatile strong posture, but the upside space is limited.
(SMM Xuman 021-51595898)