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Comment on the spot Exchange Day of SMM basic Metals on April 20
Apr 20,2020 19:02CST
Comment on the spot Exchange Day of SMM basic Metals on April 20
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM, 20 April:

Copper: today's Yapanlun copper opened at $5197.5 / tonne, after the opening of the domestic LPR one-year and five-year interest rates have been stimulated, the market sentiment has been boosted, in the morning to $5248 / tonne position and maintain a high shock above the daily moving average. After entering the European session, due to the sharp plunge in the contract price of crude oil between Japan and the United States that month, dragging down the price of copper to 5202.5 US dollars / ton, it is still supported by supply disturbances and domestic depots near the 5200 pass. As of 17: 30, Lun copper closed up 0.14 per cent at $5217.5 a tonne, with the dollar index at 99.682 and US crude oil at $23.11 a barrel. Macroeconomic data were light at night. At present, Lun copper to close Yang, the top pressure 40-day moving average, the technical surface needs to wait for the accumulation of breakthrough energy. Waiting for guidance from the dollar and crude oil at night, test whether Lun copper can hold on to $5210 / ton and effectively break through the 40-day moving average pressure.

Today, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened low at 42020 yuan / ton, opening as a result of short positions slightly fell, and then bulls have increased positions to push up copper prices, all the way to a daily high of 42630 yuan / ton. Then most of them left the market, copper prices fell, closed at 42510 yuan / ton at midday. At the start of trading in the afternoon, copper prices fluctuated slightly, slowly rising to 42590 yuan / ton before falling, near the close, multi-empty pressure on copper prices fell rapidly, closing at 42330 yuan / ton, up 130 yuan / ton, up 0.31%. The daily position of the main force of Shanghai Copper increased by 931 hands to 115000 hands today, mainly showing a long increase in positions, while trading volume decreased by 10200 hands to 77000 hands. Shanghai copper index intraday position increased by 3688 hands to 321000 hands, mainly for the long increase in positions; trading volume decreased by 18000 hands to 178000 hands. The main force of copper in Shanghai rose sharply within the day, mainly due to the sharp decline in the quoted interest rate (LPR) in the loan market of China's central bank today, in order to alleviate the impact of the epidemic on China's economy. One-year and five-year LPR fell by 20 and 10 basis points respectively from the previous period, and one-year LPR fell to 3.85 per cent, a major positive news for the real economy and capital markets, effectively boosting market confidence and driving up copper prices sharply. Fundamentally, the market is worried about tight copper supply. Brazilian mining company Vale said in a document that it had cut its forecast for copper production in 2020 to 36-380000 tons from 400000 tons. Both macro and fundamentals support copper prices. At present, the main force of Shanghai copper broke through the 40-day moving average. Technically, there is still room for copper prices to rise.

Today, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot contract rose 130 yuan / ton to 160 yuan / ton, Pingshui copper transaction price 42520 yuan / ton ~ 42770 yuan / ton, Shengshui copper transaction price 42530 yuan / ton ~ 42780 yuan / ton. Shanghai copper low open high to 42600 yuan / ton above. The morning market spot quotation continues last Friday's quotation, the good copper quotation rises 150 ~ rises 170 yuan / ton, the copper futures soars causes the market rarely to conclude the transaction, the market receives the goods to be depressed, the holder helplessly reduces the quotation, adjusts to rises 140 ~ rises 150 yuan / ton. After 10:30, Pingshui copper can be pressed to water 130-135 yuan / ton, some brands of good copper quoted water 140 yuan / ton, wet copper down with the market, quotation from early rising water 120 ~ down to 100 yuan / ton. Copper futures rose sharply on Monday, the market transaction atmosphere was cautious, and the willingness to accept goods in trade and downstream was weak. On Monday, the market was still cautious, with holders reluctant to take the initiative to lower the price level of rising water, while downstream copper prices were afraid of being higher than the continuous rebound. Only traders continue to be the main trading body, and supply and demand continue to be sawed. Afternoon high concussion, spot continuation of the stalemate pattern, hesitant afternoon inquiry reduced, the holder returned to a strong situation, Pingshui copper water 140 yuan / ton, little room to suppress the price, good copper water 150 yuan / ton, difficult to lift, the transaction price in 42720-42780 yuan / ton.

Aluminum: Lun aluminum opens at $1505 per ton in the morning. In the Asian session, Lun aluminum first raised and then suppressed, high touched $1520 / ton, but the sub-session can still fluctuate around the daily average; entering the European trading session, short positions continued to fall, falling below the $1500 / ton threshold, as of 18:20, Lun aluminum closed at $1489.5 / ton, daily K-line temporarily closed a long shadow line, down $16.50 / ton, down 1.1%. Position increased by 8553 hands to 782000 hands, trading volume decreased by 6558 hands to 8831 hands, mainly short positions. The fundamentals of the outer plate are weak, LME inventory rose another 41800 tons today, Lun aluminum performance rushed high and weak to fall back, is still expected to fluctuate around the 5 / 10 moving average in the evening. It is necessary to pay continuous attention to the changes of overseas epidemic situation and the ratio of Shanghai and London.

On Monday, the Shanghai aluminum main company 2006 contract opened at 12335 yuan / ton in the morning, and rose slightly to 12460 yuan / ton before noon, then the rising momentum was insufficient, the price was revised back to 12300 yuan / ton, the short position at the end of the session was reduced, and the price rebounded slightly, closing at 12340 yuan / ton, down 70 yuan / ton, or 0.56%, from Friday. The trading volume increased by 6591 hands to 129000 hands, and the position decreased by 4070 hands to 131000 hands. Day K line close to the cross star small positive line, the top can touch the 40-day moving average. From a fundamental point of view, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory continued to decline, the output also increased year on year, demand continued to improve, the disk remained strong in the short term, but the upward range was limited. The operating range is expected to be 12100-12500 yuan / ton tomorrow.

Aluminum prices fell back in the afternoon. In the morning, the quotation of the holder in Wuxi area of Shanghai is between 12510-12530 yuan / ton. As the aluminum price rises by 10: 30, the quotation of the holder begins to concentrate in the range of 12480-12500 yuan / ton, and between 10-30 yuan / ton on the plate. The quotation of the holder in Hangzhou area is about 12530-12550 yuan / ton. Early morning high-price shippers are very active, because the market circulation spot is tight, spot rising water is higher, the late shippers gradually converge, began to show wait-and-see, the middle merchants continue to show a high willingness to pick up the goods before noon. In addition, a large household is more active in purchasing today and plans to receive more than 10,000 tons of goods. Downstream normal replenishment today, due to higher aluminum prices slightly hesitant to receive goods, but the overall can. The overall transaction in East China is better today. In the afternoon, the center of gravity of aluminum continues to sink, the market quotation is around 12430 yuan / ton, the surface discount is concentrated in the rising water of about 60 yuan / ton, only a small number of transactions between traders, few downstream.

Lead: within the day, Lun lead opened at $1675 / ton, Asia period, Lun lead basic pressure daily average shock, afternoon, the overall weakening of non-ferrous metals, Lun lead also fell to $1665 / ton, into the European period, undertake bargain entry, Lun lead shock upward repair, as of 17: 34, Lun lead temporarily closed at $1675 / ton, down $2 / ton, down 0.12%. Lun lead temporary closure of the cross star, daily K center of gravity pressure 5-day moving average decline, if the night crude oil continues to weaken, or drag the lead no longer bottom technical support drop test below the 1660 yuan / ton platform.

Within the day, the Shanghai lead main force 2006 contract opened at 13630 yuan / ton, low open and low walk, the whole day basically under pressure in the daily average line, and around the 13590 line shock, finally closed at 13595 yuan / ton, down 170 yuan / ton, down 1.24%, the position increased by 2231 hands to 26427 hands. Shanghai lead closed a small negative line, the lower 13500 yuan / ton platform support still exists, from the fundamental point of view, low inventory, superimposed electrolytic lead spot supply is tight, will still hinder the short wanton entry to crack down on lead prices.

Shanghai market Jinsha lead 14125-14175 yuan / ton, Shanghai lead 2005 contract up 330-380 yuan / ton, South, Shuikoushan lead 14275-14295 yuan / ton, Shanghai lead 2005 contract 480500 yuan / ton, Wuxi market Shuikoushan lead 14245 yuan / ton, Shanghai 2005 contract 450RMB / ton. Lead weak consolidation, and Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai areas around the circulation of goods is still small, holders maintain high water quotation, downstream demand is not strong, on-demand procurement, bulk single market transaction activity is general.

South China lead in Guangdong market is 14030 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead is 80 yuan / ton. Henan Yuguang, Wanyang, Jinli and other smelters are mainly composed of Yuguang, Wanyang and Jinli smelters: 14050 yuan / ton in Shuikoushan, Hunan Province, 100 yuan / ton for SMM1# lead (trader), 14050 yuan / ton for Jiang copper and 100 yuan / ton for SMM network. Today, lead prices are weak, Henan smelters cherish the sale mood is obvious, mainly to send long orders, scattered orders do not come out, downstream today bargain procurement, as a result of recycled lead supplies have increased, the overall trading of primary lead market is general.

Zinc: zinc in Geneva was opened at US $1950.5 / tonne. After a slight adjustment near the opening price, it shook up again by US $1963 / tonne, fell back to near US $1957 / tonne at noon, and then jumped up again to refresh its intraday high to US $1969.5 / tonne. Once again, it was blocked to return to all the gains within the day, trying to repair the failure of the decline, recording an inverted V form as of 16: 35. Lun Zinc closed down $1946.5, or 0.23 per cent, at $4.50 a tonne. Lun zinc refresh week high, below the short moving average adhesion agglomeration to form an effective support, overseas supply side story still has fermentation space, Lun zinc short-term support is more powerful.

Intraday Shanghai zinc main force 2006 contract opened at 16140 yuan / ton, part of the long departure at the beginning of the session, Shanghai zinc straight line fell to the bottom of 15975 yuan / ton, then the empty more into the leading, Shanghai zinc shock upward backfill all the decline, once high 16240 yuan / ton, upward pressure, Shanghai zinc tail down. The final close was 16130 yuan / ton, with a transaction volume of 14673 to 86910 and a position of 2648 to 95930. Shanghai zinc received a cross star, mainly short departure, SMM statistical results show that the weekend social inventory continues to decline, to a certain extent, it can be understood that the ingot end supply and demand relationship is not as bad as expected, while the overseas mining end due to the epidemic shutdown story has not yet ended, on the whole, zinc can still remain optimistic.

Shanghai Zinc mainstream transaction in 16160-16250 yuan / ton, Shuangyan transaction in 16180-16270 yuan / ton; Shuangyan ordinary price of 100-110 yuan / ton in May; Shuangyan in May 130-140 yuan / ton; zinc mainstream transaction in 16080-16180 yuan / ton. Shanghai zinc 2005 contract bottom rebounded, the morning market closed at 16150 yuan / ton. Smelter normal shipment, early market traders shipment is more active, the market reported about 110 yuan / ton, basically no change from last Friday, and Shuangyan due to tight circulation quotation to go up to 140 yuan / ton. Entering the second trading period, trading between traders remained active, and the market transaction price was raised to 115-120 yuan / ton, while the downstream fear of waiting for heights and buying enthusiasm was not high. Shuangyan quotation was lowered to 130 yuan / ton, and the main trading volume within the trading day was contributed by traders.

The mainstream transaction in Ningbo was 16220-16320 yuan / ton, and the price difference between Ningbo and Shanghai ordinary brands narrowed from 40 yuan / ton to 30 yuan / ton on Friday, and the price difference between Ningbo and Shanghai was narrowed from 40 yuan / ton to 30 yuan / ton on Friday. Today, the circulation of goods in Ningbo market is tight, and traders are more willing to bid. In the first period of the morning, some traders tried to quote, Xikuang and Tiefeng quoted about 150 yuan / ton to the May contract, Huize and Tiefeng reported around 170 yuan / ton to the May contract, and a small number of Hualian reported near 140 yuan / ton to the May contract. On the whole, today's Ningbo market is relatively strong, the downstream willingness to receive goods is poor, the market as a whole is in a state of no market. Trading in the market was basically flat compared with last Friday.

Guangdong zinc mainstream transaction in 1599016140 yuan / ton, the quotation focused on Shanghai zinc 2006 contract discount 20 to 10 yuan / ton, Guangdong market compared with Shanghai stock market discount 130 yuan / ton is flat from the previous trading day. In the first trading period, when the price is relatively low, the holder has a strong mood of propping up the price, and the foreign quotation is higher, but the traders mostly look for the source of water goods, and later as the price rebounds, the market quotation is loosened and the overall transaction increases, but most of them are mainly traded by traders. Kirin, Mengzi, Huize and Tiefeng quote 10 yuan to 10 yuan / ton on the Shanghai zinc June contract. In the second trading session, as prices continue to rise, smelters are more willing to ship, while downstream are afraid of high mining. In the case of insufficient demand, the holder continues to adjust the price and ship, and the spot discount is larger than that of the first period as a whole. Kirin, Mengzi, Huize and Tiefeng offer 10-20 yuan per ton for the June contract. Kylin, Mengzi, Huize, Tiefeng mainstream transaction in 15990-16140 yuan / ton.

The mainstream transaction of zinc ingots in Tianjin market was 16340-17570 yuan / ton, and that of ordinary brands was 16340-16430 yuan / ton. The contract for 2005 rose by 220 yuan / ton to 300 yuan / ton. Compared with Shanghai stock market, Tianjin market decreased from 150 yuan / ton to 120 yuan / ton. High shock of zinc in Shanghai today. The spot market maintains the discount quotation, the quotation is divided, the ordinary brand lark newspaper in the 05 contract bid up 230 yuan / ton, the red paper reported in the 05 contract rose 240 yuan / ton, Chi Hong reported in the 05 contract rose 220 yuan / ton, the high-priced brand Zijin reported 300 yuan / ton to the May contract. Today, zinc prices fluctuate, traders maintain rising water shipment, the market heard that there is a low price dump situation, as a result of May lark will enter maintenance, less recent shipments, resulting in the market lark brand zinc spindle volume is less, red Ye also has a maintenance plan, has not yet been finally decided; downstream, the price rose to the top of ten thousand, the overall willingness to accept the goods is significantly weaker. Maintain the need for procurement. Overall, the deal was flat today compared with last Friday. The transaction of zinc ingot is near 1629016380 yuan / ton.

Tin: after the opening of 15195 US dollars / ton today, Lunxi electronic disk quickly rushed up to 15400 US dollars / ton due to the rising factors in Shanghai at the beginning of the day, and then came under pressure all the way down. As of 17: 30, Lunxi was down 15130 US dollars / ton. Although there was a rebound in 15250 US dollars / ton, it was blocked by the daily moving average and reported to be a cross star. The 5-day moving average support below the physical part is in jeopardy. The upper film line is located near the 40-day moving average. Resistance above Lunxi is expected to be near an earlier high of $15700 a tonne. In the near future, we can pay attention to the changes in API crude oil stocks in the United States for the week ended April 17 (10,000 barrels) and the changes in EIA crude oil stocks for the week ended April 17 in the United States (10,000 barrels).

Shanghai tin main force 2006 contract opened today 126980 yuan / ton, the early short force left Shanghai tin Chong high to a daily high of 129490 yuan / ton. Subsequently, some of the bulls made a profit and left the market, and the Shanghai tin pressure shock fell back, wiping out the previous nearly half of the increase, and finally closed with 128270 yuan / ton, up 130 yuan / ton, up 0.10%, trading volume 38648 hands, position 33744 hands, down 1006 hands. Shanghai tin closed today with a positive line, the physical part is supported by the 5-day moving average, the upper shadow line to the 60-day moving average, it is expected that the resistance above the Shanghai tin is near the integer gate of 130000 yuan / ton.

Spot market, today's mainstream transaction price 132000-133500 yuan / ton, Shanghai tin plate high, downstream enterprises buy relatively weak, traders are also cautious receipt, Shanghai tin spot market overall transaction atmosphere is general. Shanghai tin 2006 contract set Yunxi rising water 5000-5500 yuan / ton, ordinary cloud word rising water 4500 yuan / ton, small brand rising water 4000 yuan / ton.

Nickel: Lunni opened at 12055 US dollars / ton today. After a brief drop of 11920 US dollars / ton after the opening, the bulls gradually increased their positions, rose all the way up based on 12000 US dollars / ton, broke through the 60-day moving average, and after a brief consolidation, stood smoothly on the front line of 12300 US dollars / ton before noon. In the afternoon, Lunni continued to shake up, reaching as high as $12440 a tonne. As of 18:00 on April 20, Lunni closed at $12340 a tonne, up $270,000, or 2.24 per cent, from the previous trading day. Trading volume decreased by 261 hands to 4857 hands, position increased by 806 hands to 219000 hands. Today, Lunni temporarily closed in a small balcony, once broke through the 60-day moving average, but the 60-day moving average still needs to be effectively consolidated, the technical performance is good, the long kinetic energy performance is strong, will be expected to impact the previous platform 12700 US dollars / ton front line.

The Shanghai Nickel 2006 contract opened 98970 yuan / ton today. As domestic LPR 1-year and 5-year interest rates have been cut and stimulated, market sentiment has been boosted, basic metals are generally floating red, and market concerns about nickel supply side shortage have been brewing for a long time. Superimposed today's stainless steel price is strong, Shanghai nickel bulls energy has been effectively released, soon after the opening of long successive positions, break through the 60-day moving average, the rising energy is still not diminished. Shortly after the opening of the afternoon trading, it stood on 102000 yuan / ton, recovering the previous jump gap, reaching 102300 yuan / ton. Although all the bulls left the market before the close, it still closed at 102030 yuan / ton. The previous trading rose 3060 yuan / ton, up 3.09%, trading volume increased 99000 hands to 333000 hands, position volume increased 12068 hands to 123000 hands. Today, Shanghai nickel closed in the sun column, and effectively broke through the 60-day moving average resistance, has been run to the new uplink space. In the good situation of the various data, the upward momentum is more sufficient.

Today's SMM1 electrolytic nickel offer 99800-101900 yuan / ton. Basic metals rose in the morning market, including Shanghai nickel and stainless steel. Spot aspect, today the trader has turned to 05 contract quotation, Russian nickel to Shanghai nickel 2006 contract report 150 to paste 100 yuan / ton, after the opening of a small number of transactions, nickel prices break through the 100000 mark, the transaction gradually faded. Jinchuan nickel Shanghai nickel 2006 contract rose 1100-1200 yuan / ton, transaction is also very few, it is reported that a small number of manufacturers to pick up the goods, but only agreed on the price period, not settled yet. Today, the ex-factory price of Jinchuan Company is 101800 yuan / ton, and there are still goods for sale in Shanghai. Due to the higher price, the ex-factory price is constantly narrower than the rising water. Therefore, although the merchants in the market already have a certain amount of inventory, they are still enthusiastically receiving the goods. In the afternoon market, the market has a small increase of 900 yuan / ton quotation, but mostly between traders. Today, nickel beans reported 600 yuan / ton to Shanghai Nickel 2006 contract.


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