SMM, 17 April:
This week, the basic metals rose under the stimulus of a lot of information, and the historic production reduction agreements of OPEC+ oil-producing countries were reached at the beginning of the week. Subsequently, Europe and the United States successively issued various plans to restart their economies, boosting market confidence. The domestic release of economic data for the first quarter showed an obvious positive trend compared with the previous month. The central bank implemented targeted reductions and other measures for small and medium-sized banks to form a good atmosphere for domestic bulls to enter the market. SMMI rose 3.08%, copper led the rise, SMMI.Cu rose 3.7%, Lun copper station on 5200 US dollars / ton, Shanghai copper target pointed to 42500 yuan / ton, spot rising water to maintain a strong rise. Aluminum was pushed higher in the decline in domestic inventories, Shanghai aluminum rose 4.77% during the week, spot less than futures, but the discount also gradually turned to a small rise, SMMI.Al rose 3.58%. SMMI.Zn rose 3.58%, Lun zinc broke through 1950 US dollars / ton, Shanghai zinc target broke through 10, 000, 000, spot rising water also held firm under the sharp drop in inventory. Lead performance period is weak and strong, Shanghai period lead blocked Wansi pass, interval concussion, primary lead spot water has flushed to about 400 yuan / ton, SMMI.Pb weekly increase of 0.18%. The resistance above Lunni is difficult to break through effectively. Shanghai nickel struggles near the 97000 yuan mark, spot water rises and falls, SMMI. Ni weekly up 0.05%. Next week, most of the basic metals market will be supported by long single trading, and the spot will maintain a certain degree of activity and persistence. Today, the Xinhua Society has announced that the 17th session of the 13th National people's Congress will be held on April 26-29. The market is looking forward to more policy guidance, and the bulls can still make a difference, and various basic metals will make breakthroughs again.
Copper: copper jumped into the sky this week. It is mainly affected by two factors. First of all, the macro side continues to improve. During the Easter holiday break, OPEC+ oil-producing countries reached a historic agreement to cut production, helping oil prices to rebound sharply, and the global epidemic has eased. The news that Europe and the United States are planning to restart their economies has led to the release of market risk appetite and effectively stimulated copper prices. Us President Donald Trump on Friday issued guidelines on phasing out restrictions on economic activity, boosting confidence and hedging market pessimism caused by the deterioration of some economic data during the week. Second, from a fundamental point of view, due to the impact of the epidemic, overseas copper supply side disturbance news spread frequently, Peru's largest copper mine Antamina announced a "strategic shutdown" of at least two weeks, and South Africa adopted strict blockade measures, adding to market concerns about tight copper supply, supporting higher copper prices. At the start of the day, copper jumped high on Tuesday, rising more than 3 per cent a day, pushing up the $5200 mark but under the impact of a high and long departure and the pressure of an integer level, with a foothold in the 5-day moving average and swinging in the range of 5-day and 40-day moving averages. over the weekend, it rose again, holding on to 5200 yuan / ton and touching a high of $5237.5 / ton. The weekly increase was 3.22%. This week, Lunlun copper position decreased by 9039 hands to 259000 hands, mainly for short reduction; trading volume decreased by 9481 hands to 44000 hands. At present, Lun copper hit the 40-day moving average upward, the MACD green column continues to shorten, technically there is still upward momentum.
The main focus of copper in Shanghai this week is up from last week. On the domestic side, the release of China's new credit and social finance data in March at the beginning of the week and the GDP data for the first quarter released on Friday show that China's economy has rebounded, and the government and the central bank have been active and promising. Within the week, they began to implement targeted reductions and other measures for small and medium-sized banks, effectively hedging the impact of the epidemic on the economy and providing strong support for the recovery and development of the real economy. Macro sentiment at home and abroad is improving, supporting domestic bulls to enter the market. The main force of Shanghai copper rose slightly from the position of 41280 yuan / ton, hovering around the 41750 yuan correction of the 5-day moving average during the week. On Friday, it stood firmly at the 42000 yuan / ton level, standing on the 5-day moving average, up 1.34% on a weekly basis. This week, the main position of copper in Shanghai increased by 9569 hands to 114000 hands, mainly for the increase of long positions; trading volume increased by 107000 hands to 378000 hands. At present, the main force of Shanghai Copper has reached the 40-day moving average upward. Next, we will see if the bulls can continue to rush up and make up for the gap in the previous jump.
On the spot side, there has been an upward trend this week. At the beginning of the week, the common strong characteristics are obvious, quoted in Shengshui 60 yuan / ton. It is necessary to keep it downstream. On the last trading day of the contract in the middle of the week, the spread fluctuated more frequently, the buying was still active, the transaction was active, and the rising water was firm at 120 ~ 150 yuan / ton. After the exchange month, under the strong price of the holder, the spot rising water continues to push higher, but the downstream buying shows hesitation, more cautious wait and see, the main body of the transaction is mostly traders. Shanghai copper rose sharply over the weekend, spot water is still strong at 140 yuan / ton ~ 170 yuan / ton. Some of the holders have the mood of high cash exchange, which can depress prices, but there are still high expectations of rising water in the future.
Lunalco is closed for a day for Monday's Easter holiday, for a total of four trading days this week. Lun aluminum opened at $1490.5 a tonne this week and closed at $1522 a tonne at 18:15, up $38, or 2.56 per cent, in the week. Trading volume was down 7375 hands to 47791 hands and positions were down 3568 to 773000 hands. Lenal opened on Tuesday, buoyed by a rally in crude oil, but was constrained by weak fundamentals, closing in two small crosses on Wednesday and Thursday, and was boosted by a rally in Shanghai on Friday. Lun aluminum touched the 20-day moving average. Lun aluminum is expected to remain strong next week, with a boost from Shanghai aluminum, running between $1520 and $1580 a tonne. We need to pay continuous attention to the development of the epidemic overseas and the changes in the fundamentals of Lun Aluminium itself.
This week, the 2006 contract of Shanghai Aluminum Company opened at 11845 yuan / ton, closing at 12410 yuan / ton, up 565 yuan / ton, or 4.77%, during the week. The position decreased by 2661 hands to 135000 hands, and the trading volume increased by 135000 hands to 463000 hands. On Monday, Shanghai aluminum opened a correction to Friday's rally and narrowed on Tuesday, while demand-side warming boosted market sentiment on Wednesday, with bulls entering the market in succession, shorting and reducing their positions, and opening higher on Friday, touching the 40-day moving average on the daily K line. It is expected that next week Shanghai aluminum in the case of better domestic demand, will still maintain a relatively strong situation, first test 12500 yuan / ton position, if standing steady, there may be a breakthrough of 13000 yuan / ton. The operating range of the main Shanghai aluminum company is expected to be 12100-13000 yuan / ton next week.
Spot transactions in East China are more active this week. In Shanghai and Wuxi, the quotation is between 11790-12180 yuan / ton, the surface discount is concentrated in 10-10 yuan / ton, and the spot price in Hangzhou is between 11810-12190 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the week, the holder of the goods was not very optimistic about the rising water in the future, and the shipment was positive, but the middleman was more hesitant to receive the goods. A large household normally carried out the procurement plan every day. The overall transaction of the market was more general. Near the weekend, the spot gradually showed tight circulation. The discount was slightly narrowed or even slightly increased. The holder continued to actively ship the goods. At this time, the middleman's willingness to receive the goods was high, and the trading between the two sides was extremely active. Even an hour before the afternoon aluminum market closed, there was still active trading. Downstream, this week on-demand goods-based, pre-performance wait-and-see, with the spot price rising day by day, the mood of receiving goods gradually rose. Overall, trading was better this week than last week.
This week Lun lead continues the concussion trend, the long air trading turns light. At the beginning of the week, due to the Easter lead closed for a day, after the opening of the Lun lead rushed back, during the high once reached 1750 US dollars / ton, after bearing pressure in the 40-day moving average, Lun lead shock fell back, but the low 20-day moving average is still near the support, after basically in the concussion market, amplitude narrowed, as of Friday, Lun lead reported at 1698 US dollars / ton. Entering next week, the total number of existing home sales in the United States in March (10,000 households), the week from the United States to April 17 EIA crude oil inventory (10,000 barrels), the United States March durable goods order monthly rate and the UK manufacturing PMI data; Macro data due to the epidemic situation and other reasons expected to be more pessimistic, focusing on the United States crude oil inventory and other data, return to Lun lead, overseas car consumption basically collapsed, consumption side does not have expectations, supply, overseas lead is mainly a mine problem, so overseas Lun lead compared with other non-ferrous metals, the trend is weak, next week is expected to continue the concussion market, concussion at 16651740 US dollars / ton.
Lead in Shanghai fell back this week, but the overall short-term operation trend is still in the upward channel; At the beginning of the week, Shanghai lead relied on the promotion of low inventories, prices rose as low as 13945 yuan / ton, and then reached near the 40-day moving average, shorts added positions, Shanghai lead gave up the rise, the low reached 13585 yuan / ton, stimulated by good overseas news on Friday, Shanghai lead opened high and walked low, mainly pessimistic for fundamental expectations, as of Friday, Shanghai lead reported at 13720 yuan / ton. Next week, the domestic announcement of the LPR benchmark interest rate, as the domestic MLF and seven-day reverse repo rate has been cut by 20 basis points, this high probability follows the downward adjustment, is expected to boost the market is limited, fundamentals, supply regeneration and primary lead month-to-month increase, bringing incremental pressure on the supply side, the recent slowdown in domestic social inventory storage, consumer orders outside Shanghai has begun to gradually reflect, and the domestic expectation of the same ring ratio is weak. Generally speaking, lead is in a partial empty variety, the operation is recommended to short high. Lead June: 13550-13900 yuan / ton
The spot price this week is 14150-14450 yuan / ton. Lead price range shock this week, primary lead refinery inventory is still low, mainly to long single trading, individual refineries bulk single quotation to maintain high water quotation, as of Friday bulk single market to SMM1# lead average price rose 50-150 yuan / ton, the trade market, due to the limited supply of goods in circulation, the holder followed the offer of high water, but the tension has been relaxed compared with last week, as of Friday, reported to the 2005 contract water up 350-450 yuan / ton; Recycled lead has been increasing in the market this week, the mainstream of SMM1# lead average price discount 100 yuan / ton to flat water quoted factory, consumer end, this week battery enterprises mostly bargain on demand procurement, but the market began to weaken.
On Monday, the market was closed. Driven by the rise in domestic prices on Tuesday, the price broke through US $1950 / ton, but it was dragged down by the drop in crude oil, and the current overseas consumption was greatly affected by the epidemic. The market confidence was slightly insufficient, and the price fluctuated and fell back, with the lowest falling to US $1903 / ton, but it was supported by the Brin channel at the bottom of the technical surface. In terms of fundamentals, the shutdown of overseas mines has increased again-the Antamina mine in Peru has stopped production because of the epidemic, and the price has been repaired. On Wednesday, the price was waiting to go up, the upper 40-day moving average was suppressed, and the price fell again and approached to 1900 US dollars / ton, but it was clearly supported by the moving average below. On Thursday, the price fluctuated upward, accelerating to 1965 US dollars / ton, a four-week high. After a little concussion, the price plunged quickly and gave up the increase. The price rallied again to $1962 a tonne on Friday, but the upper selling pressure was higher and the price fell back, but overall, the price was still up 1.91 per cent on a weekly basis. This week Shanghai zinc shock upward, the price center of gravity further up, the overall performance is better than the outer plate. At the beginning of the week, consumption in the lower reaches of China recovered one after another, especially in the case of better infrastructure orders, driving overall demand, supported by the 5-and 10-day moving average on the technical side, rammed below the zinc price, and fluctuating upward. Prices broke through 15800 yuan and 15900 yuan / ton on Monday and Tuesday, but the bullish confidence was slightly insufficient after the price rose, and the prices all showed a pullback. Prices continued to test upward on Wednesday, the main contract touched the 16000 yuan integer mark, but the upper selling pressure is serious, the price dropped sharply to about 15800 yuan / ton, giving up the whole-day increase; on Thursday, the price once broke 16000 yuan / ton, the highest rose to 16030 yuan / ton, the long and short competition above is fierce, the price is mainly fluctuating below 16000 yuan / ton. After the zinc price opened higher on Friday, the main contract rose to 16195 yuan / ton. The data released between the plates showed that China's GDP fell 6.8% in the first quarter compared with the same period last year, and the market enthusiasm slightly cooled the price back. However, according to our statistical inventory, the weekly ratio of domestic inventory dropped by more than 10, 000 tons, overall consumption exceeded expectations, prices were supported under prices, prices stopped falling and rebounded, and the main contracts closed at 16130 yuan / ton. The weekly increase was 3%.
This week, the domestic contract for 05 in Shanghai market changed from 80-100 yuan / ton to 100-120 yuan / ton, and Shuangyan and Chihong changed from 90-100 yuan / ton to 130-140 yuan / ton. Zinc prices continued to rise, smelter shipments returned to normal, due to the approach of delivery at the beginning of the week, coupled with the expiration of the second batch of long orders in the month, the single purchase of traders remained active, and the market quotation remained stable at about 80-90 yuan / ton. In the middle of the week, some traders bet that market liquidity would tighten, superimposed monthly long orders have entered the later stage, the market actively received goods, and spot water quickly rose to 110-120 yuan / ton. However, prices are higher and lower reaches of the willingness to buy worse, traders dominate trading. Near the weekend, the market shipment intention is strong, the quotation is reduced slightly to rise the water 100-110 yuan / ton, downstream enters the market to do the demand purchase. Overall sales were broadly flat during the week compared with the previous week.
The price difference between Ningbo and Shanghai this week narrowed from 60 yuan / ton to 40 yuan / ton, the price difference between Ningbo and Shanghai narrowed from 60 yuan / ton to 40 yuan / ton this week, and the price difference between Ningbo and Shanghai narrowed from 60 yuan / ton to 40 yuan / ton this week. Zinc prices have rebounded this week, and the willingness to buy downstream has fallen sharply. Overall, as the rising water in Shanghai stabilized and rose, the Ningbo market followed slightly, but it was difficult to persist in the second half of the week, and the rising water did not rise again. In the first half of the week, the holder actively shipped the goods near 120 yuan / ton to the May contract, and some high-priced brands such as Huize and Kirin quoted around 130 yuan / ton for the May contract. However, the transaction situation is more general. Only one day before delivery, some traders actively receive goods to supplement the demand for long orders, but on the whole, downstream transactions are limited. After delivery, it is difficult for Ningbo market to follow the Shanghai market, which is basically maintained at 140-150 yuan / ton for the May contract, and the price difference between brands is gradually narrowing. Overall, most of the downstream this week to wait and see, Ningbo market transactions slightly worse than last week.
This week, Guangdong market zinc quotation focused on Shanghai zinc 2006 contract discount 40 yuan / ton to 10 yuan / ton, Guangdong market than Shanghai stock market discount 130 yuan / ton 40 yuan more than last Friday. This week, with the rebound of prices, Guangdong market spot has changed from futures 06 contract discount to flat water or even rising water quotation, we think there are the following reasons: first, downstream, die casting alloy factory orders decline, but the terminal pre-replenished inventory has been consumed one after another, this week need to enter the market to supplement a certain volume, coupled with galvanized consumption can drive market demand; Second, the Shanghai price is higher, the Guangdong market is strong, and the holder offers a higher price to the outside world; third, the smelter adjusts the delivery plan, and at the same time, the amount of goods directly picked up by the smelter in Hunan and other places increases, resulting in the limited arrival of goods in the Guangdong market and the high price in the market; fourth, the demand for single purchase by the trader increases, driving the market to close transactions. However, the stock of warehouse receipts in Guangdong is large, and the outflow of warehouse receipts will be increased near the spot to flat water, and as prices continue to rebound, the willingness of smelters to ship will be enhanced, and downstream procurement demand may be restrained. We believe that the spot rise in the Guangdong market is difficult to maintain.
The contract for zinc 2005 in Shanghai rose 200 yuan to 330 yuan / ton this week. The rising water in Tianjin stock market rose from 140 yuan / ton to 150 yuan / ton last week, and the rising water in Tianjin remained high this week. At the beginning of this week, zinc prices fluctuated upward, Tianjin spot rose to 250 yuan / ton to 300 yuan / ton, the downstream willingness to pick up did not appear to be significantly weaker, to maintain the need for procurement; In the middle of the week, spot circulation in Tianjin market intensified, in which Chihong brand due to pre-maintenance, resulting in short-term spot break, and lark brand due to May maintenance plan, short-term shipment significantly reduced, superimposed part of the brand cherish the sale, spot sales to maintain a high level, downstream to maintain on-demand procurement; The rising water climbed to 210 yuan / ton to 330 yuan / ton on Friday morning, but the willingness of downstream enterprises to pick up goods was weaker than at the beginning of the week due to the large increase in futures. Overall, purchases have been needed downstream this week.
The overall trend of Lunxi this week, Lunxi was closed due to the influence of Easter, and then after the opening of trading, Lunxi quickly rose to a weekly high of $15650 / ton and then fell back under pressure due to the upward shift of the center of gravity of the domestic Shanghai tin plate in the early stage of trading. After erasing all the previous gains, it remained at a low level of $15100 / ton after reaching a weekly low of $14885 / tonne. As of 16: 30 on Friday, the latest price of Lunxi was $15015 / tonne. Weekly level rose $65 / ton, up 0.43%, trading volume 1047 hands, position 17339 hands, down 260 hands. The weekly level of Lunxi is a small negative line, the upper shadow line is longer in the vicinity of the 10-day moving average. In terms of indicators, daily line level KDJ and MACD indicators show signs of weakening, weekly level KDJ and MACD indicators are still relatively good.
This week, the Shanghai tin main force 2006 contract overall maintained at 124500129000 yuan / ton near the high shock, the early week Shanghai tin by the short position reduction and the long increase position influence to the week high 128880 yuan / ton, then the long reduction short position Shanghai tin bearing pressure to fall back and drop to the low point of 124850 yuan / ton during the week. Shanghai tin rose again on Friday under the influence of a long increase in positions, rising to near the high level in the early part of the week, failed to continue to break down slightly, and finally closed at 128140 yuan / ton. During the week, it rose 1730 yuan / ton, or 1.37%, with a turnover of 170000 hands and a position of 34750 hands, a decrease of 1688 hands. The level of the weekly line is a small positive line, and the physical part is located near the 10-day moving average. In terms of indicators, the overall representation of daily line level and weekly line level KDJ index is relatively good, and the daily line level histogram of MACD index appears in the state of reduction.
This week, the spot price of Shanghai tin fluctuated up and down with the Shanghai tin plate. At the beginning of the week, the tin plate in Shanghai maintained a relatively high level, climbing to a high level of 128880 yuan / ton during the week. Some of the sources of goods in the market were locked in the Shanghai tin spot quotation because of the rising center of gravity, and some of the prices were higher than the actual shipping prices of the upstream smelters. Because the smelter price is relatively low and the disk is at a higher level, some traders purchase more actively, balancing the rising water range of their spot to a certain extent. Subsequently, the Shanghai tin market first suppressed and then rose, the spot price followed by the rise and fall obviously, the overall market transaction situation weakened, only some downstream enterprises just need to purchase. On Friday, the spot price of Shanghai tin was 131500133000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 132250 yuan / ton, up 2750 yuan / ton from last Friday. In terms of water discount, Yunxi rose 5000-5500 yuan / ton in Shanghai tin 2006 contract set on Friday, 4500-5000 yuan / ton in ordinary cloud words, and 4000-4500 yuan / ton in small brands.
Lunni was closed for Easter on Monday and opened at 11720 yuan / ton on Tuesday. Driven by the Shanghai nickel rush, it quickly stood on the front line of US $11800 / ton, once higher than 12000 US dollars / ton in the middle of the week, but under pressure from integer levels and 40-day moving averages, superimposed on the drag of rising and falling international crude oil prices, Lunni gradually gave up an increase of US $11620 / ton. However, due to a number of average price support near this position, the short force weakened and the nickel price stabilized again. Domestic macro data improved on Friday, with Lunni rising higher, recovering all of its losses this week and returning to $12000 a tonne. As of 18: 40 on April 17, Lunni closed at $11980 a tonne, up 280 points, or 2.39 per cent. Weekly trading volume decreased by 1763 hands to 18401 hands, and positions decreased by 320 hands to 218000 hands. At present, Lunni is 2 degrees above the 40-day moving average this week, and bullish confidence has been boosted, and there will still be an upward rebound next week, or an impact on the upper 60-day moving average of $12250 / tonne, but there is still a need for a wide adjustment over the course of the day.
Shanghai nickel in the trading session this week mostly to range shock correction, Shanghai nickel 2006 contract opened at 97100 yuan / ton on Monday, although affected by the weakening of international oil prices, but back to the 5-day moving average, the first half of the week is still stable and 96500 yuan / ton above. Shanghai nickel briefly rebounded through 98000 yuan / ton in the middle of the week, and then fell back under the pressure of the 40-day moving average. Under the disturbance of the international crude oil falling below 20 US dollars / ton and the dismal US retail data, the bullish confidence gradually reduced its position, making Shanghai nickel fall back to 95700 yuan / ton. However, domestic macro data improved on Friday, basic metals rebounded across the board, breaking through the 40-day moving average pressure, closed at 99140 yuan / ton, a one-day gain of 3.35% on Friday. The weekly increase was 1660 yuan / ton, or 1.71 per cent. Trading volume decreased by 232000 hands to 1.497 million hands, position increased by 3946 hands to 111000 hands. At present, the domestic indicators are improving, Shanghai nickel is also supported in the data surface, and the callback space is limited. It is expected that the Shanghai nickel target will effectively recover the 100000 level next week and is expected to rise to the upper 60-day moving average of 100300 yuan / ton. However, because the upper fulcrum is less, and the spot hedging plate will gradually move to 06 contract, so after the upward breakthrough, Shanghai nickel still has callback demand to find support, need to be cautious within the day of wide adjustment.
This week, the spot price of electrolytic nickel remained stable between 96000 and 99000 yuan / ton, while the rising water of Russian nickel did not change much. It was overstated that the Shanghai Nickel 2005 contract was flat-up by 100 yuan / tonne. Near the weekend, the holder moved his position to 06 contract quotation one after another. Although the center of gravity of nickel prices has moved up from last week, end users still pick up the goods on demand, and the transaction situation has not changed much from last week. Jinchuan nickel, with the arrival of Jinchuan Company in Shanghai at the beginning of the week, and the appropriate reduction in ex-factory prices to stimulate traders to receive shipments, weekly shipments of about 1000 tons, and Jinchuan nickel market also gradually rose by 1500 yuan / ton to 2005 contracts rose 1200 yuan / ton, but most of the transactions during the week to traders circulation replenishment, downstream demand is still weak. As the end of the month is approaching, Jinchuan Company is expected to reduce shipments next week, Jinchuan nickel rising water may remain in the 06 contract rose between 1200-1500 yuan / ton. On the other hand, as for Russian nickel, due to the recent absence of imports, the rate of discount to the 06 contract may be narrowed.
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