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Comment on the spot Exchange Day of SMM basic Metals on April 15
Apr 15,2020 19:13CST
Comment on the spot Exchange Day of SMM basic Metals on April 15
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM4, 15 March:


Today's Yapanlun copper opened at $5175 / ton, the morning Asian session in the vicinity of the shock. Oil prices fell more than 2 per cent below $20 a barrel today as the IMF warned that the global recession triggered by the new epidemic would be the worst since the Great Depression, sparking concerns about commodity consumption. After entering the European session, the dollar index rose rapidly, and the pressure center of pressure began to move down. after falling $5077 / ton, the low rebounded slightly, but was eventually blocked at around $5100. At 17: 45, Lun Copper closed down $88, or 1.71%, at $5100 a tonne, with the dollar index at 99.383 and US crude oil at 19.54. Focus on U. S. retail sales data for March at night. At present, the copper is negative, and there are still many EMA supports below. Waiting for guidance from the dollar and crude oil at night, test whether Lun copper can hold on to the $5100 / tonne position.

Today, the main contract of Shanghai Copper opened at 41790 yuan / ton. After the opening, the copper price was suppressed to the lowest point of 41330 yuan / ton in the day, which was in the technical support level of the 5-day moving average. At this time, the Central Bank of China announced the formal implementation of the targeted reduction policy for small and medium-sized banks today and launched a medium-term loan of 100 billion yuan to facilitate the further release of liquidity by (MLF),. Shorts heard the news to reduce their positions, copper prices rebounded after fluctuations rose, closed at noon at 41700 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, the bears continued to leave the market, pushing up the copper price to a daily high of 41820 yuan / ton, but the rally was unsustainable. The center of gravity fell to 41580 yuan / ton. Copper prices fluctuated around this position to close. Today, the main force of copper in Shanghai closed at 41560 yuan / ton, down 230 yuan / ton, down 0.55%. Shanghai copper main contract day position increased by 3106 hands, to 115000 hands, mainly for short positions; trading volume increased by 186 hands to 74000 hands; Shanghai copper 2005 contract day position decreased by 2527 hands to 96000 hands, mainly for the long reduction; trading volume increased by 792 hands to 51000 hands. The main rebound in Shanghai copper was blocked during the day, mainly because investors were more worried about the damage to the economy. In its new World Economic Outlook report, the IMF expects global GDP growth to shrink by 3% in 2020, with developed and emerging economies entering recession at the same time, and overall market risk appetite weakening from the previous two days. Moreover, the global oil-producing countries' joint production reduction plan and the degree of damage to crude oil demand caused by the epidemic are dwarfed by the extent to which international oil prices have fallen all the way down, making it difficult to help copper prices rise. Today, the main force of Shanghai copper is affected by Lun copper, the center of gravity moves down around 41600 yuan / ton fluctuation, MACD red column shrinks slightly, the rise is weak. It is difficult to fill the gap in the early jump. Today, the Shanghai copper 2004 contract was the final trading day, closing at 41740 yuan / ton, down 150 yuan / ton, or 0.36%. The price difference between the intra-day and 2005 contract fluctuates violently, fluctuating frequently in the range of 10-40 yuan / ton, the highest price difference can reach 60-70 yuan / ton, the settlement price is 41730 yuan / ton, the position increases by 2005 hands to 11555 hands, and the delivery volume is 57775 tons.

Today, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot contract rose 80 yuan / ton to 140 yuan / ton, Pingshui copper transaction price 41770 yuan / ton ~ 41890 yuan / ton, Shengshui copper transaction price 41790 yuan / ton ~ 41900 yuan / ton. Shanghai copper under 42000 yuan / ton wide shock. Today is the last trading day of the 2004 contract, most of the market to the next month 2005 contract quotation, according to the SMM copper price methodology is still quoted on the 2004 contract, the monthly spread fluctuates greatly and frequently, around 10 to 40 yuan / ton spread fluctuations. Morning market holders put in trial, on the 2005 contract quotation of flat water copper water 120 yuan / ton was quickly closed, then flat water copper water 130 ~ 140 yuan / ton buying active, good copper water 140 ~ 150 yuan / ton quotation is strong, wet copper on the 05 contract firm in the rising water 90 yuan / ton first line. The price of copper in the morning market, the 2005 contract price of 120 yuan / ton was quickly closed, then flat copper was active in buying water 130 ~ 140 yuan / ton, and the quotation of good copper was firm in the first line of rising water 90 yuan / ton. According to the spread market, the price of copper in flat water in the same month is 80 ~ 120 yuan / ton, and that of good copper is 100 ~ 140 yuan / ton. Today is the last trading day of the contract of the month, the spread performance volatility is still more frequent, today's discount is subject to the monthly spread changes, but the holder holds the firm rising water attitude does not change, the trade inquiry actively intends to receive the goods, the market low price trading is active, the short-term spot will still maintain the high rising water level. In the afternoon, Shanghai copper rose first and then suppressed, the 2005 contract once rose above 41800 yuan / ton, and then the spot quotation became more and more firm. Pingshui copper rose 150-160 yuan / ton, good copper rose 160-170 yuan / ton, the transaction price 41800-42000 yuan / ton, the holder did not adjust the price, traders wait and see.


Lun aluminum opens at $1512 a tonne in the morning. In the Asian session, the plate rose first and then suppressed, with a high of $1529 / ton, and then fell back slightly, but still did not fall below $1500 / tonne. As of 18:20, Lun Aluminium closed at $1512.5 / tonne, up $0.50 / tonne compared with the opening session, and the daily K line temporarily closed at a small cross star. Geneva aluminum led by Shanghai aluminum performance rose slightly, but the fundamentals weak pattern is difficult to change. Tomorrow's range is expected to fluctuate in 14901530 US dollars / ton, the upper 20 moving average resistance is obvious. Continuous attention should be paid to overseas production cuts and the release of macro news.

Shanghai aluminum company 2006 contract opened in the morning at 11830 yuan / ton, after the opening of the long position to help the plate continued to rise, high piercing Wan2 after a small decline, closed at 11950 yuan / ton, for nearly four weeks high. Daily K line closed a small positive line, up 180 yuan / ton from the previous day, up 1.53%, short unilateral positions decreased by 2632 hands to 139000 hands, trading volume increased by 54313 hands to 107000 hands. Today is the last trading day before delivery in the current month, and the intra-day contract has changed to a significant back structure. The Shanghai aluminum 2004 contract closed at 11960 yuan / ton, up 180 yuan / ton, or 1.53%, from yesterday's close. The position was reduced by 5500 hands to 18030 hands. The short position was mainly reduced, the delivery volume was 90150 tons, and the settlement price was 11905 yuan / ton. The current rise in aluminum prices when the macro optimism and domestic fundamentals to repair the dual role. From a macro point of view, liquidity at home and abroad tends to be loose, boosting bulk, Shanghai aluminum has also been boosted. Fundamentals, 1) supply side, as of Wednesday, SMM statistics in 2020 domestic electrolytic aluminum production reduced annual operating capacity of 885000 tons, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production area has the potential to further expand. 2) on the demand side, since late March, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory began to go to the warehouse, the weekly output of aluminum ingots and bars also increased; the aluminum building materials plate obviously recovered, and the small peak season arrived as scheduled. On the whole, the repair of short-term fundamentals and optimistic macro performance, boost market sentiment, in the medium term still need to pay attention to the impact of supply cuts and the pace of demand changes on the balance. Short-term should not be overly bearish, it is expected to change the month tomorrow after the Shanghai aluminum main concussion run in 11800-12050 yuan / ton.

In the afternoon, aluminum prices fluctuated upward, the spot market, in the morning Shanghai Wuxi area cardholders quoted between 1188011900 yuan / ton, compared with yesterday's price rose 90 yuan / ton near, to the plate sticker 20 yuan / ton to Pingshui, Hangzhou area holder quotation in 11910-11920 yuan / ton. Before noon, the shipper was very active, and the middleman received the goods more actively. A large customer received nearly 10,000 tons of goods today, and the transaction between the buyer and the seller was OK. Downstream today is still on demand to go mainly, receiving goods mediocre. The overall transaction in East China is OK today. Aluminum in the afternoon to maintain high fluctuations, the holder quoted in the vicinity of 11970 yuan / ton, the next month flat state, almost no deal.


Within days, Lun lead opened low at 1700 US dollars / ton. In the Asian period, Lun lead ran around the daily average line. In the afternoon, Lun lead briefly continued the concussion market. Later, due to the decline in crude oil, dragging down the overall weakness of non-ferrous metals on the outer plate, Lun lead once fell to US $1679 / ton, but the lower 20-day moving average line had a strong support. Lun lead was slightly revised up, and by 16: 40, Lun lead temporarily closed at US $1689 / ton, down US $14.50 / ton. It was down 0.85%. Lun lead temporarily closed the small negative line, open the downlink channel, but still in the shock range, if the crude oil continues to weaken at night, Lun lead or test 20-day moving average support.

Within the day, the Shanghai lead main force 2006 contract opened at 13765 yuan / ton, low open low walk, the whole day basically around the daily average shock, finally closed at 13630 yuan / ton, down 215 yuan / ton, down 1.55%, position reduced by 1729 hands to 19023 hands. Shanghai lead reporting entity small negative line, continue the concussion market, below 13500 yuan / ton first-line support still exists, pay close attention to the supply of waste battery supply changes. In addition, on the last trading day of the intra-day 2004 contract, it opened at 14320 yuan / ton, probed down to 14100 yuan / ton and rebounded, finally closed at 14300 yuan / ton, settlement price 14200 yuan / ton, trading volume increased by 90 hands to 135 hands, position decreased by 30 hands to 200 hands, delivery volume was 1000 tons.

In Shanghai market, Jinsha lead 14285-14315 yuan / ton, 400-430 yuan / ton for Shanghai lead 2005 contract, 430450 yuan / ton for southern silver lead 14315-14335 yuan / ton, 430450 yuan / ton for Shanghai lead 2005 contract, 14335 yuan / ton for Shuikoushan lead contract and 450RMB / ton for Shanghai 2005 contract. The supply of recycled lead continued to rise, downstream consumption was weak, and the upward momentum of lead prices was insufficient. At the same time, the supply of goods in circulation in the trade market increased slightly.

Guangdong market, South China lead 14130 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead rose 80 yuan / ton. Henan Yuguang, Wanyang, Jinli and other smelters mainly produce long orders, and the supply is basically sold in advance this week: Hunan Shuikoushan 14150 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead up 100 yuan / ton (traders), Jiang copper 14150 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM net 100 yuan / ton, Anhui bronze crown 14250 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM net up 200 yuan / ton; Today, the smelter supply is still relatively small, only some refineries bulk single high water quotation, downstream procurement to recycled lead-based, today's prices weakened, battery procurement has recovered, the market trading is still good.


Geneva Zinc opened at US $1929 / ton, which was slightly sorted out at the beginning of the day, and then quickly went up and tried to suppress the upper 40-day moving average again, and finished temporarily at US $1940 / ton. In the afternoon, with the strengthening of the US index, most of the non-ferrous plates fell back under pressure, and Lun Zinc went down, giving up the total decline of 1908.5 US dollars / ton at the end of the day, and then tried to repair it. As of 16: 37, Lun Zinc closed down 1915 US dollars / ton. Down $15 / tonne, or 0.78%. Lun Zinc above the 40-day moving average suppression continues to be strong, action energy is insufficient, superimposed overseas consumption prospects are still bleak, goods began to gather to LME warehouses, an increase of 2450 tons to 99750 tons within the day, has emerged from a relatively low level, it is expected that Lun Zinc night or down test 1900 US dollars / ton integer support.

Intraday Shanghai zinc main force 2006 contract opened at 15880 yuan / ton, early in the day Shanghai zinc is still to increase positions uplink, shock uplink 16000 yuan / ton, then should issue a large number of stop earnings position, shanghai zinc quickly fell to a reverse V reversal, back to the day all the decline, closed down 15805 yuan / ton, down 95 yuan / ton, 0.6%, trading volume reduced by 12165 hands to 93428 hands, position reduced by 912 hands to 92921 hands. at the end of the day, it closed down 15805 yuan / ton, down 95 yuan / ton, down 0.6%, trading volume decreased by 12165 hands to 93428 hands, position reduced by 912 hands to 92921 hands. Shanghai zinc turned green, by this trial Wanliu pass ended in failure, the lower short moving average adhesion support is still expected to be effective, it is expected that zinc may temporarily adjust to try again. Intraday Shanghai zinc 2004 contract opened at 15860 yuan / ton, intraday Shanghai zinc Chong high recorded a V reversal, closed down 15780 yuan / ton, down 2004 yuan / ton, down 0.66%, trading volume decreased by 735 hands to 1640 hands, position reduced by 115 hands to 6990 hands. The settlement price is 15855 yuan per ton and the delivery volume is 34950 tons.

Shanghai Zinc mainstream transaction in 15950-16060 yuan / ton, Shuangyan transaction in 15970-16080 yuan / ton; Shuangyan generally quoted 110-120 yuan / ton in May; Shuangyan reported 130-140 yuan / ton in May; Zinc mainstream transaction in 15880-15980 yuan / ton. Shanghai zinc 2005 contract shock higher, the morning market closed at 15935 yuan / ton. Zinc smelter normal shipment, traders active trading, the market is more active, the price quickly rose to 110 yuan / ton, transaction is relatively smooth, part of the price rose to 120-130 yuan / ton, but the market acceptance is not high, the transaction has fallen back a little. The price has been raised to 110 yuan / ton, the transaction is relatively smooth, and some of the quotation has been raised to 120-130 yuan / ton. however, the market acceptance is not high, and the transaction has fallen back a little. Entering the second trading period, the market receiving force dropped obviously, the market quotation held steady at 110-120 yuan / ton, the transaction became weaker, while the disk and rising water strengthened synchronously, the spot price of zinc was under high pressure, and there was little inquiry and purchase in the lower reaches of the day, and the transaction was mainly contributed by traders.

The mainstream transaction in Ningbo was 1597016050 yuan / ton, and the price difference between Ningbo and Shanghai ordinary brands narrowed from 30 yuan / ton to 10 yuan / ton. Ningbo market quotation today followed the Shanghai bid higher, but the rise did not exceed expectations. In the first period of the morning, the holder actively shipped, Tiefeng and Huize brands reported a rise of 150 yuan / ton in May, Kirin reported a 130-160 yuan / ton increase in the May contract, but the basic transaction was 130 yuan / ton to the May contract. Western Mining and Hualian brands reported that the May contract rose 130-140 yuan / ton, and the overall transaction situation was poor. Overall, today's disk higher, rising water higher, downstream mostly wait-and-see, the overall transaction is worse than yesterday.

The mainstream transaction of Guangdong zinc was 15800-15930 yuan / ton, and the quotation focused on 10-30 yuan / ton of Shanghai zinc 2005 contract, and the discount of 140 yuan / ton in Guangdong stock market was 40 yuan larger than that of the previous trading day. In the first trading session, the futures price fluctuated within a narrow range, the center of gravity was lower than yesterday's close, the early holders tried to bid, but the market reaction was mediocre, some of the holders began to adjust their prices, and the market began to close. Kirin, Mengzi, Huize and Tiefeng quoted 10-20 yuan / ton on the Shanghai zinc May contract. In the second trading session, futures prices rose, die casting zinc alloy factory orders fell in the case of insufficient willingness to purchase, traders received more pressure prices, spot discount slightly expanded compared with the first trading period. Kirin, Mengzi, Huize, Tiefeng offer to the May contract discount of about 30 yuan / ton. Kylin, Mengzi, Huize, Tiefeng mainstream transaction in 15800-15930 yuan / ton.

The mainstream transaction of zinc ingots in Tianjin market was 16100-17540 yuan / ton, and that of ordinary brands was 16100-16200 yuan / ton. The contract for 2005 rose by 200yuan / ton to 280yuan / ton. Compared with Shanghai stock market, Tianjin market decreased from 140yuan / ton to 130yuan / ton. Today, the Shanghai zinc shock rose, the spot market maintained the discount quotation, the quotation is more unified, the ordinary brand lark newspaper in the 05 contract bid up 220 yuan / ton, the red newspaper reported in the 05 contract rose 250 yuan / ton, the fourth ring newspaper in the 05 contract rose 200 yuan / ton, Chi Hongbao in the 05 contract rose 240 yuan / ton, the high price brand Zijin reported 280 yuan / ton to the May contract. Today, futures prices remain high, traders maintain discount quotations, smelter shipments remain unchanged, spot market liquidity is still tight; downstream, as spot prices rise above 10, 000, the enthusiasm of downstream enterprises to receive goods is slightly weaker than on Monday, but still maintain the need for procurement. On the whole, the transaction today is flat compared with yesterday. The transaction of zinc ingot is near 16050-16150 yuan / ton.


After the opening of the electronic disk of $15425 / ton today, the sub-plate to the beginning of the European disk generally showed a wave-like concussion downward trend, as of 17: 30 the latest price of $15285 / ton, showing a negative line, the physical part is located near the 40-day moving average, and the support below Lunxi is expected to be located at the integer level of $15000 / ton.

Shanghai tin main 2006 contract this morning after the opening of 126200 yuan / ton, early by short positions affected by the impact of the intraday high of 127590 yuan / ton. Subsequently, Shanghai tin was blocked under pressure, and finally closed at 126920 yuan / ton, up 550 yuan / ton, up 0.44%, trading volume 31476 hands, position 34154 hands, down 1139 hands. Today, Shanghai tin closed at a small positive line, the physical part is located near the 40-day moving average, the bottom is supported by the 5-day moving average, and the resistance above Shanghai tin is expected to be near the 60-day moving average of 130000 yuan / ton.

Spot market, today's mainstream transaction price 130500-132000 yuan / ton, Shanghai downstream enterprises and traders in general, Shanghai tin spot market overall transaction atmosphere is general. Shanghai tin 2006 contract set Yunxi rising water near 5500 yuan / ton, ordinary cloud word rising water 45005000 yuan / ton, small brand rising water 40004500 yuan / ton.


Lunni opened today at $11865 / tonne. Lunni rose in the afternoon around a narrow range of $11880 / tonne. In the afternoon, it rose to explore the 40-day moving average of $12000 / tonne. Under pressure all the way down, it fell by $11765 / tonne, and then rebounded slightly. As of 17: 30, it was closed at $11805 / tonne, down $100 / tonne, or 0.84%, from the previous day's settlement price. Trading volume decreased by 2830 hands to 3641 hands, position increased by 2696 hands to 219756 hands, Lunni today temporarily closed in the long shadow line small negative column, shadow line to explore 12000 US dollars / ton pass, K column is located in the 5 / 40 day moving average range, follow up to pay attention to Lunni pressure 40 days moving average shock.

The Shanghai Nickel 2006 contract opened at 97180 yuan / ton today. In the first trading session, Shanghai nickel as a whole fluctuated widely around the daily moving average of 97300 yuan / ton, operating in the range of the 5 / 40 day moving average. then the center of gravity rose slightly to 97500 yuan / ton, with narrow fluctuations to the close of noon. In the afternoon, the bulls significantly increased their positions, Shanghai nickel rose through the 40-position moving average pressure of 98700 yuan / ton, the long high reduced positions left the market, nickel prices fell, and finally closed at 97240 yuan / ton, up 490 yuan / ton, up 0.51%, trading volume decreased by 52000 hands to 337000 hands, position volume increased by 4765 hands to 109235 hands. Shanghai Nickel closed today in the long shadow line Yang Cross, the shadow line pierced the 40-day moving average, the lower 5-day moving average is supported, follow-up attention to the Shanghai Nickel 40-day moving average 98000 yuan / ton effective breakthrough.

Today, the delivery date of the Shanghai Nickel 2004 contract, the Shanghai Nickel 2004 contract opened at 97000 yuan / ton today, the trading volume decreased by 282 hands to 426 hands, the position increased by 198 hands to 5850 hands, and the actual delivery volume was 5850 tons. The settlement price is 97470 yuan per ton.

Today SMM1 Electrolytic Nickel quotation 960098600 / ton, the average price is up 500 yuan / ton compared with yesterday. Russia Nickel to Shanghai Nickel 05 contract flat to 50 yuan / ton, Jinchuan Nickel to Shanghai Nickel 2005 contract in the rising water 1300-1500 yuan / ton. On the Russian nickel side, most traders extended yesterday's discount quotation, today's transaction situation was weaker than yesterday, the center of gravity of nickel prices moved up in the second trading session, and a small number of traders lowered to discount quotations to facilitate transactions. Jinchuan nickel, yesterday, traders from manufacturers to replenish the warehouse, today's market has been rising 1300 yuan / ton quotation, but most of the holders because of the previous cost, is still rising 1400-1500 yuan / ton, the morning market downstream inquiry is relatively weak, the transaction situation is not good. Jinchuan company ex-factory price of 98600 yuan / ton, Shanghai area continues to have goods for sale, but because the market has been a large number of replenishment yesterday, the current delivery situation is less. In the afternoon, Jinchuan long Association received some goods, but the spot market transaction is still light.


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