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SMM basic Metals spot Trading Weekly Review (2020.04.07-2020.04.10)
Apr 10,2020 22:10CST
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Source:SMM
SMM basic Metals spot Trading Weekly Review (2020.04.07-2020.04.10)
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM, 10 April:

This week, there are only four trading days at home and abroad, showing a bottoming rebound, SMMI rose 2.36%, the world in response to the epidemic brought about by the recession continue to take a variety of easing measures, the OPEC meeting will reach an agreement to cut production, crude oil rebounded sharply, leading the basic metals higher one after another. Nickel, tin and copper led the rise, due to varying degrees of hindrance at the end of the mine, smelting supply may appear short-term tight state, Lun copper broke through $5000, standing at $5100, Shanghai copper station 40, 000 yuan after a straight 42000 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.66%, but the spot was sluggish than in previous weeks, SMMI.Cu rose 3.04% as buyers were afraid of heightened caution. Shanghai tin station on 120000 yuan, rushed up 126500 yuan / ton, week up 4.83%, spot difficult to follow the market strong, rising water narrowed, SMMI.Sn rose 3.81%. The stagnation of nickel mines in the Philippines has led to a rebound in nickel prices, with Lunni up 4.46%, Shanghai nickel up 5%, spot rising and falling, Russian nickel discount trading, SMMI.Ni rose 4.64%, ranking first in the weekly increase. Aluminium stocks fell, spot discounts narrowed and SMMI.AL rose 1.21 per cent a week. Zinc low rebounded, trying to return to the ten thousand six levels, weekly increase of 1%, spot water held steady, SMMI.Zn rose 0.77%. The trend of lead was the weakest in the week, the range of lead was running, the bottom of lead in Shanghai period stabilized, but the top was blocked at the Wansi pass, the outflow of recycled lead market increased, and SMMI.Pb rose 0.54% per week. The LME will remain closed next Monday because of Easter, and under the various stimulus policies of the central and local governments, the national recovery rate has risen sharply, market confidence has boosted, and the bulls are expected to continue to take advantage of the trend to continue to repair the ratio. The basic metals may show a trend of raising first and then suppressing the market. Under the continuous rebound, they are vigilant that the high position is under the pressure of the technical hurdle, and the bears are waiting for an opportunity to counter-attack. Because of the temporary difficulty in reflecting the improvement in demand, prices may be suppressed. But the metal's center of gravity will continue to rise.

 

Copper: this week, the center of gravity of Lun Copper is up by a breakthrough compared with last week. It is mainly affected by two factors. First, there has been an increase in optimism about the mitigation of the global epidemic. Although the growth of the epidemic in the United States has continued to rise, but the growth rate has slowed, and the world has been taking various measures to deal with the economic recession caused by the epidemic, the Japanese government has launched a $990 billion economic stimulus package, and the market panic has subsided. Secondly, due to the impact of the epidemic, disturbances in overseas mines continued to increase during the week, the South American epidemic had a greater impact on the supply side, and there were difficulties in shipping copper mines and refined copper in Chile and Peru. At the same time, Mexico also declared a state of emergency within the week. Australia, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia and other places have been affected to varying degrees, supporting the rise of copper prices. Lun copper from the beginning of the week 4840 US dollars / ton near the enterprise stable bottom, one-off station on the 4900 US dollars / ton mark, broke through the 20-day moving average, continued to rise and gradually stable 20-day moving average, the center of gravity to maintain a stable around 5000 US dollars / ton, during the highest level reached 5114 US dollars / ton, the Western Easter LME closed on Friday, four trading days within the week rose 3.92 per cent. This week, Lunlun copper position decreased by 650 hands to 268000 hands, mainly for short positions; trading volume decreased by 12000 hands to 54000 hands. At present, the copper receives the cross star, the MACD red pillar continues to lengthen, the technical aspect looks high still has the kinetic energy.

This week, the center of gravity of Shanghai copper continued to rise from last week, and returned to the top of the 40000 level. During the week, persistent disturbances at the mining ends of Chile, Peru, Mexico, and so on led to difficulties in shipping, causing the market to continue to worry about the supply side of domestic smelting production, boosting bullish confidence, and gradually improving the resumption of work in China. The copper processing end can basically maintain the resumption level of 90%. In addition, good domestic policies have also occurred frequently this week, and the central bank has lowered the excess deposit reserve ratio for the first time in 12 years. The central bank announced on April 7 that it would cut the excess reserve ratio of financial institutions with the central bank from 0.72% to 0.35%, promoting banks to better serve small and medium-sized enterprises. China has been guided by a lot of good news to continue its upward trend during the week. With the return of Qingming Festival on Tuesday, the main force of copper in Shanghai started from 40000 yuan / ton, gradually rose and successfully stood above the 20-day moving average, until the weekend rushed to the highest level of 41890 yuan / ton in the week, a weekly increase of 4.66 percent. The weekly position of the main force of Shanghai Copper decreased by 229 hands to 104000 hands, mainly by short positions, while trading volume decreased by 160000 hands to 271000 hands. Shanghai copper index weekly position increased by 4022 hands to 334000 hands, mainly for the long increase in positions; trading volume decreased by 298000 hands to 760000 hands. The main force was completed on Friday and moved back to the 2006 contract.

Spot water rose this week and showed a downward trend. At the beginning of the week, the holder's willingness to offer was still strong, with a good copper offer of 130-160 yuan / ton, but the buyer was afraid of waiting on the sidelines and the transaction was light. Because the stalemate between buyers and sellers is difficult to open, the transaction is fruitless, with the continuous rise of the disk, the holder gradually revealed a high conversion mood, take the initiative to lower the price, good copper adjusted to 80-90 yuan / ton, the transaction situation has not been significantly better, the price pressure space still exists, the rising performance is almost halved. After a week, copper prices of nearly 41000 yuan further strengthened the willingness of holders to exchange cash, rising water fell rapidly again, participation in the downstream market was limited, the sentiment of fear of caution and risk aversion in the spot market was difficult to dissipate, and copper prices rose sharply on Friday. Spot prices have fallen to 3, 060 yuan, which has been steadily rebounded under the low price of long single delivery by traders and businessmen.

 

Aluminum: this week Lun aluminum opened at $1480 / ton, closed at $1484 / ton, up $4 / ton, up 0.27%, weekly K line closed at a small cross star, the end of three negative, showing a small bottom rebound. The aluminum market is closed this Friday for a total of four trading days during the week. Chou Nelun aluminum showed a low shock, moving down around the 5-day moving average, and hit a low of $1455 a tonne on Wednesday. Driven by optimism in crude oil negotiations on Thursday night, Lunelun aluminum began to try to repair the week's decline. as high as $1488 a tonne. Lun aluminum fundamentals weak difficult to change, is expected to run next week shock at 14501520 US dollars / ton.

This week, the 2006 contract of Shanghai Aluminum Company opened at 11565 yuan / ton, closed at 11845 yuan / ton on Friday, and rose by 300 yuan / ton, or 2.6%, in the four working days of the week. The weekly K line closed at a small positive line, the trading volume decreased by 117000 to 328000 hands, and the position increased by 2440 hands to 138000 hands, mainly by long positions, and the top still failed to touch the 5-day moving average. This week is the Qingming Festival holiday return the first spot trading week, the market to reduce the target expected to continue to ferment, and Guangdong, Wuxi, Gongyi and other major consumer places out of the stock improved month-on-month, but also slightly boosted the mood in the fundamentals, Shanghai aluminum performance slightly stopped falling rebound, and the disk structure gradually from back to contango, and stimulated by the rise in crude oil on Friday, a one-day increase of 190 yuan / ton, the daily K line tried to touch the 20-day moving average. Into next week, tax reduction news may continue to ferment, disk contango structure will be maintained; fundamentals, the supply side has not yet more production reduction, but also need to pay attention to downstream procurement mood and just need to change. The operating range of Shanghai Aluminum is expected to be 11400-11950 yuan / ton next week.

Spot transactions in eastern China were relatively flat this week, and market activity rose significantly on Friday. The spot price in Shanghai and Wuxi is between 11540-11750, the discount is between 20 yuan / ton to Pingshui, and the spot transaction price in Hangzhou is between 11570-11760 yuan / ton. This week, the shippers are more active, a large customer carried out part of the procurement plan every day, Friday received nearly 10,000 tons, middlemen received goods normally, relatively speaking, in the first few days of the week, although the buyers and sellers made more positive counter-offers, but the actual transaction is more general, traders feedback that the market activity is less than last week, only Friday preference. Downstream, this week on-demand goods mainly, low aluminum prices in the middle of the week when a small number of goods, near Friday to increase the willingness to stock.

 

Lead: the low level of lead rose this week, standing above the 5-and 10-day moving average again, there is the possibility of walking high on the trend. At the beginning of the week, overseas market sentiment eased, coupled with the release of liquidity in Europe and the United States and other countries, the market changed from trading deflation to trading expected inflation, non-ferrous varieties as a whole rose, Lun lead followed higher, as high as $1740 / ton, the next two days, Lun lead touched near the platform high, short began to snipe, Lun lead high level blocked, and then continued weak shock, as of Thursday, Lun lead reported at $1725 / ton. In the coming week, there will be less overseas economic data, pay more attention to the lack of Fed monetary measures abroad, whether it will continue to release water, and pay attention to the process of the US presidential election, as well as the inflection point of the overseas epidemic. If the market continues to hype inflation expectations, there is a possibility that Lun lead will continue to rise, estimated at $16351745 / ton.

This week, the overall trend of Shanghai lead is weak, and did not come out of the obvious upward trend; at the beginning of the week, led by Lun lead, Shanghai lead followed the upward trend, and the high level reached 13980 yuan / ton. After the market was more pessimistic about the expected lead price, short and high positions added positions, Shanghai lead concussion came back, the low once broke through the 20-day moving average, Friday, driven by the strength of non-ferrous metals, Shanghai lead recovered part of the decline, and finally reported at 13835 yuan / ton. In the coming week, the domestic economic data will be released one after another. Due to the low macro sensitivity of lead prices and the expected changes in fundamentals as a whole, from the mainstream point of view of the current market, lead prices are short, mainly because the increment of supply expectations is greater than the increment of consumption. To a certain extent, consumption is likely to be weaker than the previous month, but because of the strong consistency of market shorting, there is the risk of being forced into positions in low inventories. Therefore, we can see that the short position is not firm enough, the price as a whole is in a volatile market, the operation of trading waiting to go to the inflection point. Lead may be 13550-14050 yuan / ton.

Spot price 14000-14250 yuan / ton this week. This week lead price narrow range shock, the primary lead refinery inventory is low, the bulk quotation maintains the high water quotation, as of Friday the bulk single mainstream market reports to the SMM1# lead average price rises 50-100 yuan / ton, the trade market, because the inventory is low, the trader hand supply is not many, as of Friday, the price to the 2005 contract rises 400-450 yuan / ton; Recycled lead has been increasing in the market this week, the mainstream of SMM1# lead average price discount 100 yuan / ton to 50 yuan / ton quoted factory, consumer end, this week battery enterprises mostly bargain on demand procurement, but the market began to show signs of weakening.

 

Zinc: zinc rose and fell back this week, giving up some of the increase. Early this week by the European new confirmed decline, the stock market rebounded sharply, the dollar index fell back to boost, the market mood improved, the Lun zinc price extended 10 moving average shock upward, the price broke through 1900 US dollars / ton after continuing to break through, the highest rose to 1953 US dollars / ton, the price hit a two-week high, but the upper selling pressure is still heavy, some of the bulls left the market, the price fell back, and gave up some of the gains, but the overall price is still stable above 1900 US dollars / ton. Prices stabilized at one point on Wednesday and waited for another opportunity to hit upward, but according to LME inventory data, inventories rose sharply by 14075 tons on the same day, and Lun zinc prices fell sharply in the short term, falling below the $1900 / ton line, before closing short positions, and prices stopped falling to record a V-shaped reversal and regain the decline again. Before overseas demand recovered significantly, the overall price rise was weak, with LME zinc ingot inventories rising another 8500 tons on Thursday, putting pressure on prices, and the price of Lun zinc fluctuated around a narrow range of US $1900 / ton.

This week, Shanghai zinc opened high and walked low. On Monday, the domestic market was closed. Domestic zinc futures jumped short and opened higher. After a brief adjustment, the price quickly increased its position and rose, once approaching 16000 yuan / tonne. The price returned to the platform range before the mid-March collapse, but the high long position was more willing to reduce its position. After the price reduction was about 15800 yuan / ton, it was raised and pulled again. The price was narrowly fluctuated and sorted out. The number of positions in the day has been reduced by more than 3,000 hands. The price fluctuated weakly in the middle of the week. At one point, the price fell back to around 15500 yuan / ton. On Friday, the price opened low and fell as low as 15450 yuan / ton, but the low price was supported by buying, and the price stopped falling and rebounding. According to smm statistics, on Friday, the weekly ratio of domestic inventories fell again by 6800 tons, and stocks fell 11600 tons during the week, providing support for prices. In the later stage, driven by a sharp rise in copper prices, prices continued to rise after recovering the previous decline. The main contract closed at 15660 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 1.06 per cent in Shanghai.

This week, the domestic contract in Shanghai market was stable at 80-100 yuan / ton, while Shuangyan and Chihong were stable at 90120 yuan / ton in rising water. Zinc prices rose sharply at the beginning of the week, smelter shipments returned to normal, and there was a certain degree of relaxation in market circulation. However, the sharp rise in zinc prices led downstream enterprises to wait and see, and there was little procurement. The domestic quotation for the rising water of 90-100 yuan / ton in May also led to the lack of willingness of traders to purchase. At the beginning of the week, the market performance was unusually cold, and the center of gravity of zinc price operation moved down in the middle of the week. In addition, the spot rising water returned to about 80-90 yuan / ton. Market trading activity began to improve, some of the downstream enterprises that follow the market also began to enter the market in a small amount of procurement, the overall transaction gradually warmed up, the market quotation is more stable, little change. Overall sales this week were broadly flat compared with last week.

This week, the contract of zinc in Ningbo to Shanghai zinc 2005 rose by 100 yuan / ton-140 yuan / ton, and the price difference between Ningbo and Shanghai narrowed from 60 yuan / ton to 20 yuan / ton on Friday. This week Ningbo market transaction situation as a whole is relatively light, mainly due to the gradual return of zinc prices, and spot rising water down the range is more limited. As far as the consumer side is concerned, the downstream enterprises are mainly wait-and-see because of the double reasons of the dismal external demand and the setback of domestic demand. In the first half of the week, the quotation of the holder is basically concentrated, and the quotation of ordinary brands such as Hualian, Xikuang and Tiefeng is about 120130 yuan / ton to the May contract. Huize and other high-priced brands quoted around 150 yuan / ton for the May contract. However, on the whole, due to sluggish demand downstream and the gradual narrowing of the monthly gap, in the second half of the week, the holder gradually lowered the overall spot rising water of 20 yuan / ton, and the transaction gradually improved in the second half of the week. Overall, this week's Ningbo market spot transactions slightly worse than last week.

This week, the price of zinc in the Guangdong market focused on the discount of 20 yuan / ton to 10 yuan / ton on the Shanghai zinc 2005 contract, and the discount on the Guangdong market was 90 yuan / ton larger than that on Friday. This week, the focus of zinc prices has moved up compared with last week, and the enthusiasm of purchasing at high prices downstream is limited. At the same time, the impact of the postponement or cancellation of export orders has begun to reflect. Guangdong market die-casting zinc alloy consumption accounts for more than 60%. However, the current zinc alloy terminal export orders decline significantly, procurement is limited, in addition, the downstream pre-pricing zinc ingots have been picked up this week, the downstream demand as a whole is lower than last week, it is difficult to support market transactions. Traders are less willing to purchase water, multi-pressure prices to receive goods, the market tax reduction expectations weakened, holdings every spot water shipment willingness to increase, in addition to the futures between the month and the next month price difference narrower than last week, spot water is difficult to maintain, the Guangdong market spot price to Shanghai zinc 2005 contract to discount in an all-round way within the week. On the whole, spot discount in the downstream demand decline, it is difficult to have a better performance.

This week, Tianjin Zinc discounted 70 yuan to 240 yuan / ton of Shanghai zinc 2005 contract. The rising water of Tianjin stock market rose from 30 yuan / ton last week to 140 yuan / ton. Tianjin rose a lot this week. At the beginning of this week, the zinc price rose to a high level, Tianjin spot discount to maintain the previous quotation, price upward, downstream enterprises purchase will significantly weaker; into the week, due to Zijin and Chihong brand shipments significantly reduced, superimposed part of the brand to cherish the sale situation, resulting in Tianjin spot circulation is tight, spot rising water also rose all the way, and downstream in the terminal order slightly recovered, consumption has improved, just need to purchase; The rising water in Tianjin continued to climb to 210 yuan / ton to 240 yuan / ton on Friday morning. The spot volume of some traders was on the low side. In the afternoon, the rising water climbed again to a high price of 300 yuan / ton, and the downstream still needed to purchase. Overall, due to supply-side problems leading to the current spot shortage, if the rising water continues to rise, Shanghai and other places zinc ingots may flow into the Tianjin market, it is expected that the upstream space will be limited next week.

 

Tin: this week Lunxi electronic disk overall showed a concussive upward trend, the center of gravity rose sharply. At the beginning of the week, due to the slowdown in the growth of new cases in several of the worst epidemic areas in the world, risk aversion continued to fall, and positive factors such as the sharp rise in the three major stock indexes in the United States, Lunxi showed a concussive upward trend. Subsequently, on Thursday, due to market expectations of a production reduction agreement for the evening OPEC+ meeting, superimposed on the overseas tin market fundamentals Alpha Ming tin concentrate production, Jakarta Futures Exchange (JFX) tin sales decline factors, Lunxi rallied sharply, and once broke above $15000 / tonne, and closed strongly at $14950 / tonne. The Lunxi electronic disk was closed on Friday due to the impact of Easter. Nelun tin rose $825, or 5.84%, to 1249 hands and 17599 positions, down 109 hands. The circumferential level of Lunxi is Changyang line, and the physical part is located near the 5-day moving average. In terms of indicators, daily line and weekly level KDJ index and MACD index all show signs of improvement, but the daily line grade K line is under pressure in the middle track of Bolin belt.

This week Shanghai tin main force 2006 contract overall center of gravity is also in the sharp rise trend. After the opening of trading on Tuesday, the overall pressure on Shanghai tin was at the resistance level of 123000 yuan / ton near the early jump gap, maintaining a high shock near 119500-123500 yuan / ton. Affected by the sharp rise in Lunxi overnight on Friday, the bulls increased their positions in large numbers during the day, and the Xi Changyang line in Shanghai rushed up quickly, making up for the previous gap in the jump, climbing to a high of 126750 yuan / ton during the week and closing at 126410 yuan / ton on Friday. During the week, it rose 5830 yuan / ton, or 4.83%, with a turnover of 129000 hands and a position of 36438 hands, an increase of 2122 hands. The weekly level of Shanghai tin closed with a positive line, and the lower part of the entity was supported by the 5-day moving average. In terms of indicators, daily and weekly levels of KDJ and MACD indicators showed a positive trend. The KDJ index of the daily line level enters the overbought area, and the resistance level of the middle track of the broken forest belt on the K line.

The spot price of Shanghai tin followed the overall trend of Shanghai tin market this week. On Friday, the spot price of Shanghai tin was 128500-130500 yuan / ton, up 4750 yuan / ton from last Friday. After the opening of the market on Tuesday, due to the overall high center of gravity of Shanghai tin market at the beginning of the week to maintain stability, Shanghai tin spot prices have not changed significantly, downstream enterprises doubt whether high prices can continue to rise, most of them only need to purchase, and market transactions remain relatively weak. Subsequently, the focus of tin in Shanghai moved up, and rose sharply to around 127000 yuan / ton on Friday. Downstream enterprises and traders increased their willingness to purchase, and downstream enterprises worried that prices continued to rise. The overall transaction atmosphere in the Shanghai-tin spot market warmed up slightly on Friday. In terms of discount, this week, with the Shanghai tin plate center of gravity up, the spot rising water range has narrowed, but the market Yunzi and small brand supply rising water range is limited, Friday to Shanghai tin 2006 contract set Yunxi rising water near 5500 yuan / ton, ordinary cloud word rising water 4500-5000 yuan / ton, small brand rising water 40004500 yuan / ton.

 

Nickel: this week, Lunni opened at US $11225 / ton, which closed after a slight shock on the same day. On Tuesday, driven by the slowdown in the growth rate of the global epidemic, superimposed US stocks rose sharply. Lunni turned over the 5 / 10 moving average and opened a short-term rising channel. During this period, the market reached the optimistic expectation of OPEC+ to reduce crude oil production, helping Lunni break through the 20-day moving average and stand on US $11700 / ton before the close, with K columns running through the middle track of the Boll line. There were only four trading days on Friday because it was a western holiday, but as a result of the rally and the continuous reduction of short positions, Lunni recorded balconies every day, up $500 a tonne, or 4.46 per cent, for the week. Weekly turnover decreased by 5554 hands to 20164 hands, and weekly positions decreased by 6803 hands to 219000 hands. At present, although Lunni has got rid of a number of lower EMA winding, into the new operating space, but the upper 40-day moving average pressure may weaken the long force. If there is no sustained good, or make the nickel price again under pressure wide shock adjustment. The operating range is expected to be between $11300 and $12000 a tonne next week.

Shanghai nickel this week showed a stepped upward trend, sitting on the 5 / 10 moving average, showing a breakthrough upward trend. Nickel in Shanghai resumed trading after Ching Ming Festival on Tuesday from a low of 92850 yuan / ton, based on 93000 yuan / ton, shock and consolidation. On Wednesday, with the rebound of stock markets in Europe and the United States, macro confidence was boosted, superimposed by the profiteering news banned by the Philippines, and the bulls increased their positions in large quantities. Shanghai nickel rose more than 2% in one day, breaking through the 95000 yuan / ton barrier in one fell day to make up for the falling short jump gap since mid-March. After a short shock finishing, the bulls increased their positions again. Jinyang Chonggao is close to 98000 yuan / ton, breaking through Brin's middle track, standing on the 20-day moving average, exploring the 40-day moving average, the weekly cumulative increase of 4670 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.04%, weekly trading volume decreased by 675000 hands to 1.729 million hands, weekly position volume increased by 27935 hands to 107000 hands. This week, Shanghai nickel continued to strengthen, Shanghai and London ratio upward repair to 8.3 near, technically has formed an effective breakthrough, the long energy has also continued to release, the current technical indicators to more, the supply side of the tight state still has room for continued fermentation, superimposed on the guidance of many domestic stimulus policies, next week Shanghai nickel operating range may be based on the 95000 line, the target to break through the upper 40-day moving average of 98500 yuan / ton, pay attention to the long position guidance.

In the spot market, transactions this week have weakened compared with last week, on the one hand, because most of the downstream has just been in need of stock before the Ching Ming Festival; in addition, nickel prices have been rising for days, and the downstream is cautious in receiving goods, and most of the transactions are between traders. The rising water of Russian nickel changed little this week. The contract between Russian nickel and Shanghai nickel 2005 was overstated between 50 yuan / ton and 100 yuan / ton. Although the nickel price rose, traders were less willing to lower the price of rising water. Jinchuan Nickel to Shanghai Nickel 2005 contract week reported in the rising water 1400-1700 yuan / ton. Within the week, Jinchuan Company arrived in Shanghai one after another, long Association traders actively received the goods, other traders through the market circulation to replenish the warehouse, but the demand of terminal manufacturers is weak, so Jinchuan nickel rising water with the rise of nickel prices, and continuously reduced to 1400-1500 yuan / ton. At present, as the ex-factory price rise is still high, and the rise of 1400 yuan / ton is already the biggest profit for the holder, it is expected that the short-term spot market Jinchuan nickel rise will not be further reduced. This week nickel bean to Shanghai nickel 2005 contract report 500 yuan / ton, because there are no nickel beans import in the near future, the domestic supply is scarce, at the same time, the economy of nickel beans relative to nickel plate is not high, and the downstream demand is also weak.

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