[2020.4.10 minutes of Nickel Internal Morning meeting] Shanghai Nickel strong rebound Import loss narrowed Nickel Pig Iron transaction break the deadlock and return to Stability

Macroscopic aspect: Saudi Arabia and Russia end the oil production reduction war, reach the deep production reduction consensus. OPEC+ statement: OPEC+ confirmed that production will be cut by 10 million barrels per day from May 1, 2020 as the first round of production reduction for a period of two months, accounting for 10% of global supply [Lido] 2) Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell: will use lending instruments until the United States is on the road to economic recovery. The Fed will take steps to provide up to $2.3 trillion in loans. [Lido] 3) EU finance ministers have agreed on a response to the epidemic worth more than $590 billion, although final approval by EU leaders is still required. [Lido]

Nickel spot: April 9 SMM1# electrolytic nickel offer 95000-96900 yuan / ton. Shanghai nickel morning market after falling back, within the day in the 95000 yuan / ton line to continue the shock pattern. In the spot market, Russian nickel to Shanghai nickel 2005 contract offer 50 yuan to rise 100 yuan / ton; due to the different holding costs of various traders, Russian nickel quotation after the opening of the morning market is more chaotic, although there are a small number of discount quotation in the market, but most mainstream traders still continue to report in the flat water to rise to 100 yuan / ton yesterday. Nickel price center of gravity upward and downstream more wait-and-see, the demand is weak, the transaction situation is limited. Jinchuan nickel to Shanghai nickel 2005 contract rose 1500-1600 yuan / ton, transaction is also weak, there are a small number of transactions between traders. Although the supply of goods in Shanghai has been alleviated, the rising water from manufacturers is still about 1500 yuan / ton, so it is expected that the rising water in Jinchuan will continue to be stable in the future. On the other hand, as a result of the strong rebound of Shanghai nickel, the import loss has narrowed. If the import window opens recently, the domestic trade of Russian nickel may fall back.

Nickel pig iron: on April 9, a large stainless steel plant in North China sold for 900 yuan / nickel point (including tax) this week. It is reported that the seller is a large nickel iron factory in East China, and this transaction is a single negotiated price. Compared with the last two transaction prices down 40 yuan / nickel point. However, compared with the pre-market mainstream transaction price of 880 yuan / nickel point (to the factory including tax) up 20 yuan / nickel point.

April 9, a large stainless steel factory in the south this week high nickel pig iron inquiry price 860-880 yuan / nickel point (to the factory including tax), according to the market understanding, the previous quotation range is 860-870 yuan / nickel point (to the factory including tax), the price is a small number of transactions, the supplier is not a production enterprise. It is understood that due to the low price of goods did not pick up a small range of inquiry prices slightly increased to 860-880 yuan / nickel point (to the factory including tax), did not know the new transaction situation.

Stainless steel: on April 9, 304 private cold and hot rolling in Wuxi area was quoted at an average price of 11850 yuan / ton, 304 2B rough edge roll price 12100-12400 yuan / ton, and state 3042B cut edge roll price 1280013200 yuan / ton, with an average price reduction of 100yuan / ton. 201 after cold rolling, the price was reduced by 100 yuan / ton, quoted at 6900-7100 yuan / ton. The 300 series stainless steel market transaction situation is general, the hot rolling has the partial specification supply is on the low side, the price is stronger. 200Series stainless steel due to a large supply, weak market demand, price pressure down, 201/J1 four feet of East China futures price quoted at 6650 yuan / ton, the actual transaction may still have a concession. For 10:30 SHFE SS2006 contract price 12235 yuan / ton, Wuxi stainless steel spot water 35-335 yuan / ton. (spot trimming = rough edges + 170 yuan / ton)

Inventory: Nickel stocks of 229062 tons on 9 April, flat from 8 April.

Nickel price judgment: in terms of fundamentals, the reduction in production of nickel mines in the Philippines is more clear on the reduction of supply, and the decline of nickel pig iron has become stronger; However, SMM believes that the strong prices of nickel pig iron and ferrochromium will aggravate the cost pressure of stainless steel plants in April. Due to inventory pressure, the price of stainless steel is difficult to improve. In April and the later stage, it is still not ruled out the possibility of reducing stainless steel production and contusion demand. Therefore, the support of the rebound depends on the repair of the macro level and the high decline of the global epidemic situation. Shanghai nickel breaks through the 20 antenna and the nickel price may have some upward room for further macro recovery next week. Lunni closed in the small positive column yesterday, the K column stands steady 20 days moving average, the K column above faces the Boll line in the rail position pressure, the follow-up attention Boll line middle rail position pressure situation. The LME exchange will be closed for two days during the Easter public holidays in the UK on April 10 (Friday) and April 13 (next Monday).