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Comment on the spot Exchange Day of SMM basic Metals on April 9
Apr 9,2020 18:42CST
Comment on the spot Exchange Day of SMM basic Metals on April 9
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM4, 9 May:

Copper: Yapanlun copper opened at $5041 a tonne today and was spurred by a sharp rise in US stocks and crude oil last night. Copper prices quickly rose to $5071 a tonne. Due to the market on the development of the epidemic, the progress of the OPEC+ meeting and other macro factors have greater uncertainty, copper prices recently rebounded after the long began to profit-taking, copper prices then entered the downward range. After entering the European session, copper prices continued to fall, low down to $5004.5 / ton, testing $5000 support. At 17: 00, Lun Copper closed down 0.15% at $5015 a tonne, with the dollar index at 100.080 and US crude oil at $26.25 a barrel. Pay attention to the outcome of the negotiations at the OPEC+ meeting in the evening. At present, the copper is negative, there is a 5-day moving average support below, the upper pressure Brin middle rail, copper price operation range is gradually established. Waiting for guidance from the dollar and crude oil at night, test whether Lun copper can hold on to the integer level of $5000 per tonne.

Today, the Shanghai copper main force contract 2005 opened higher at 40980 yuan / ton in the morning, and the opening short entry pulled up the copper price to a daily high of 41080 yuan / ton. After a small drop, the copper price hit the 41000 yuan / ton mark again, but the rally was unsustainable. The main force of Shanghai copper fell down the daily average line all the way down to 40790 yuan / ton, the center of gravity stabilized in this position, closed at 40800 yuan / ton in the afternoon, and tried to push again in the afternoon opening session, but gradually weakened after climbing to 40870 yuan / ton. And maintain a small shock around 40840 yuan / ton. Near the end of the day, the price of copper fell again to a daily low of 40690 yuan / ton, and a small amount in the last session rebounded slightly to close at 40800 yuan / ton, up 180 yuan / ton, or 0.44%. The daily position of the main contract of Shanghai Copper increased by 241 hands to 101000 hands, mainly for the reduction of long positions, while the trading volume decreased by 27000 hands to 50000 hands. Shanghai Copper 2006 contract daily position increased by 1928 hands, to 101000 hands, mainly for short positions; trading volume decreased by 1.9 hands, to 48000 hands, the position is about to move backward. Shanghai copper index daily position reduction of 1739 hands, to 333000 hands, mainly for short reduction; trading volume decreased by 70000 hands to 141000 hands. Within the day, the main force of Shanghai copper opened high and walked low, and the center of gravity was significantly higher than yesterday, mainly due to the warming of market expectations of a production reduction agreement to be reached at the upcoming OPEC+ meeting today. Russia has also expressed its willingness to cut production and pull up oil prices in the short term, which will have an impact on copper prices. However, at present, the contradiction between supply and demand of international crude oil is extremely serious. India, as the third largest crude oil importer in the world, its crude oil demand has been sharply reduced by 70% as a result of the epidemic blockade measures, confirming the market's dimmer expectations of crude oil demand under the influence of the epidemic. Investors have reservations about the continued improvement in oil prices. The chairman of the Euro Group said yesterday that finance ministers had not agreed on a rescue plan for nearly 500 billion new pneumonia outbreaks and that market sentiment was becoming more fragile. Today, Shanghai copper closed in Yang, MACD Hongzhu slightly expanded, copper prices gradually away from the 20-day moving average. However, in the past two days, the 41000 yuan / ton pass is weak and the bulls are short of energy. Pay attention to the guidance of the evening bronze and the performance of the bulls.

Today, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot contract rose 70 yuan / ton to 120 yuan / ton, Pingshui copper transaction price 40880 yuan / ton ~ 41000 yuan / ton, Shengshui copper transaction price 40890 yuan / ton ~ 41020 yuan / ton. Shanghai copper opened high and low to 40850 yuan / ton line, blocked at the 41000 yuan level. The morning market quotation is about 130 yuan / ton, but the holder shows the mood of exchanging cash at an obvious high level. In the case of fruitless transaction, good copper is the first to fall to 110-120 yuan / ton, and flat water copper is reduced to 90-100 yuan / ton. In the second trading stage, there are still few transactions, but the holder speeds up the rate of price reduction, and good copper drops to 80-90 yuan / ton, which is still rarely favored. Pingshui copper in order to lower the transaction to 70 yuan / ton still has room to depress the price, wet copper significantly reduced to 40 ~ 60 yuan / ton, lack of attention, downstream to maintain just need. Today, the holder of the entanglement, cash exchange and the willingness to raise water contradiction glued, the lack of support in the market transaction is difficult to mention, high copper prices make it difficult for the market to stop. Spot quotation continued to be lowered in the afternoon. Due to the afternoon disk price is under pressure, more stimulate the holder of high shipping sentiment, but the market received few goods, the overall transaction performance light market. In the afternoon, Pingshui copper reported 50-60 yuan / ton, good copper reported 60-70 yuan / ton, the transaction price in the 4090040970 yuan / ton range.


Aluminum: aluminum opened at $1468.5 a tonne this morning. In the Asian session, Lun aluminum slowly tried to climb up, but after touching 1482.5 US dollars / ton, the rise was weak, entering the European trading session to turn down, give up the Asian session rose, and have a further downward trend, as of 16:48, Lun aluminum closed at 1466.5 US dollars / ton, daily K line closed a small negative line, down 3 US dollars / ton, 0.2%, position reduced by 475 hands to 777000 hands, trading volume decreased by 9104 hands to 5358 hands. The main reason is to reduce the position of long head. From a macro point of view, the trend of crude oil prices is still uncertain, we need to pay attention to the results of the negotiations at tonight's meeting, but Lun aluminum is difficult to change because of its weak fundamentals. LME aluminum warehouse receipts have a high level of storage. Today, another 12250 tons will be added to the disk. The 10-day moving average resistance level above is obvious, and the evening operating range is expected to be 14551495 US dollars / ton.

Today, the 2006 contract of Shanghai Aluminum Company was opened at 11625 yuan / ton in the morning. Part of the short left the market at the beginning of the session, the disk short-term rushed up to 11695 yuan / ton, the high encountered short back to increase the position, the price fell back quickly, falling to the lowest level of 11605 yuan / ton in the day. Pre-afternoon second trading stage to the afternoon close, the market continued to maintain a narrow range of volatility, closed at 11655 yuan / ton, up 35 yuan / ton, up 0.3%, unilateral short positions decreased by 607 to 138000 hands, trading volume decreased by 5729 to 72427 hands, mainly short positions. From a macro point of view, the market is expected to reduce the domestic rate higher, the contract structure has been converted to contango. Although the fundamental inventory recorded a weekly decline, mainly due to the performance of short-term smelters to sell, and the value of this low price, downstream hoarding psychology, but according to SMM research, after mid-April aluminum processing enterprises new export orders shrink, will be negative feedback to electrolytic aluminum demand, the level of oversupply is difficult to record a significant improvement, so the long short performance is more hesitant, the main contract substantial increase or decrease behavior did not appear. It is expected that tomorrow the Shanghai aluminum main company 2006 contract operating range is difficult to break away from the 5 / 10 moving average, concussion runs in 11500-11700 yuan / ton.

The aluminum price range fluctuates widely before noon. In the spot market, in the morning, the quotation of the holder in Shanghai Wuxi area was between 11600 and 11620 yuan / ton, which was about 60 yuan / ton higher than that of yesterday. Although the previous holder was active in shipping but relatively high in price, the middleman made an active inquiry but did not actually receive the goods. The transactions between the two sides showed a slight stalemate. At the end of 11:30, the aluminum went up, and the quotation of the shippers was also raised, but at this time the trading heat fell back to the market and there were few transactions. The spot price in Hangzhou is concentrated in the range of 11610-11630 yuan / ton. Downstream procurement on demand today, there is no bright spot. The overall transaction in East China was flat today. In the afternoon aluminum maintenance interval shock, the holder shipment is few, the individual brand aluminum ingot quotation is on the low side in 11610 yuan / ton, to the disk surface paste 30 yuan / ton or so, only a small number of transactions between traders, there are few downstream.


Lead: within the day, Lun lead opened low at $1715.5 / ton, Asia period, Lun lead around the daily average narrow shock, into Europe, Lun lead once as low as $1706 / ton, and then returned to the previous shock platform near, as of 16: 49, Lun lead temporarily closed at $1713.5 / ton, down $2 / ton, down 0.12%. Lun lead temporarily closed for two consecutive negative, the bottom 5, 10 days moving average to form a strong support, and above 1730 US dollars / ton there is suppression, expected to run in this range at night.

Within the day, the Shanghai lead main force 2005 contract opened at 13725 yuan / ton, high open low walk, after bearing pressure in the daily average line, and around 13685 yuan / ton shock, finally closed at 13700 yuan / ton, down 65 yuan / ton, down 0.47%, the position increased by 1 hand to 21716 hands. The position obviously moved back to the 2006 contract, increasing the position by 1071 to 17704 hands. Shanghai lead closing small negative line, high weak shock, short-term moving average trend flat, from the fundamental point of view, April recycled lead increment is huge, and the current regeneration / primary price difference hanging situation is shaky, lead price weakening is inevitable, just smelting waste tension, slow down the pace of lead price weakening, continue to pay attention to 13600 yuan / ton platform support in the near future.

Shanghai market electrolytic lead circulation supply is scarce, the market almost no quotation; Jiangsu and Zhejiang market Shuikoushan, southern lead 14105-14125 yuan / ton, Shanghai lead 2005 contract 430450 yuan / ton quotation. Lead in the future maintained the consolidation situation, at the same time, the supply of goods in circulation in the market was still less, the holders offered more goods, and the price rose higher than yesterday, while the consignees were still concentrated in the traders, and the downstream just needed gradually flowed to recycled lead. There are obvious regional differences between Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai and other regions.

Guangdong market South China lead 14025-14055 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead rose by 50 yuan / ton. Henan Yuguang, Wanyang, Jinli and other smelters are mainly long single, and the market supply of bulk orders is less: Hunan Shuikoushan 14025 / 14075 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead up 50% 100 yuan / ton (traders), Jiang copper 14075 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM net 100 yuan / ton, Anhui bronze crown 14175 yuan / ton, SMM net 200 yuan / ton; Today, the overall market trading turned light, but the market supply is still tight, as the source of recycled lead has flowed out one after another, the downstream began to mainly purchase recycled refined lead.


Zinc: zinc opened at US $1915 / ton in Geneva. At the beginning of the day, market funds were still struggling. After wide fluctuations in zinc, the amplitude decreased and fell back. The center of gravity moved down to around US $1910 / ton. In the afternoon, the attempt to repair Zinc was blocked. At the same time, it was hit by another 8500 tons increase in LME inventory. Lun Zinc quickly fell through the US $1900 / ton integer mark and hit the bottom of US $1896 / ton. As a result, the market has already expected this. Short-lived emotional feedback later quickly backfill decline, as of 16: 57, Lun Zinc closed down $1911 / ton, down $3 / ton, down $0.16 / ton. Lun zinc negative, below the short moving average adhesion to form a support, the current overseas epidemic has not yet appeared an inflection point, at the same time, the overseas mining end production limit has not been lifted, it is expected that under the support of the supply side story, Lun zinc may fluctuate in the range, and the integer gate support of 1900 US dollars / ton is effective.

Within the day, the Shanghai zinc main force 2006 contract opened at 15700 yuan / ton, the market short selling force at the beginning of the day is relatively strong, Shanghai zinc position downward extended daily moving average line gradually down to 15600 yuan / ton around collation and operation, near the close, part of the long capital tried to enter the market, then was pressed down by the short, recorded a V fall, closed down 15555 yuan / ton, down 95 yuan / ton, 0.61%, trading volume increased 18546 to 83375 hands, position increased 1817 to 84871 hands. Shanghai zinc has increased positions and declined for two days in a row, highlighting the continued weakness of funds on consumption under the influence of the epidemic. The current supply side shortage and weak consumption are both sawing, and zinc is expected to fall into interval fluctuations.

Shanghai zinc mainstream transaction in 15690-15760 yuan / ton, Shuangyan transaction in 15700-15770 yuan / ton; zinc general price of 80 yuan / ton in April; Shuangyan in April 90 yuan / ton; zinc mainstream transaction in 15620-15690 yuan / ton. Shanghai zinc 2005 shock downward, the first trading session in the morning closed at 15625 yuan / ton, the first time in the morning, the market is mainly long single trading, the market trading is more active, the mainstream transaction in the market is concentrated in the SMM net average price flat water or discount 5 yuan / ton, some cardholders follow up on the 2005 contract quoted 70% 80 yuan / ton, high water 90 yuan / ton quotation, but the transaction pressure is still large; Entering the second period, the spot rally was relatively stable, with some holders offering 80 yuan / ton to the 2005 contract, with a low price of 70 yuan / ton; the zinc price fluctuated downwards, and the inquiry in the second downstream period increased, and the overall trading was better than yesterday. In addition, trading in the trading market is active today, and the current market downstream procurement is mainly falling and buying more, and trading in the higher market will be significantly weaker.

The mainstream transaction in Ningbo was 15700-15790 yuan / ton, the ordinary brand rose 110-130 yuan / ton to the 2005 contract, and the price difference between Ningbo and Shanghai ordinary brand was maintained at 40 yuan / ton. Zinc prices fell slightly, today traders maintain yesterday's offer, active shipment. In the morning, brands such as Tiefeng, Hualian and Xijiao reported an increase of about 120 yuan / ton on the May contract, and Yongchang newspaper raised the water by 110-120 yuan / ton on the May contract, but most of the transactions were 110 yuan / ton. Today, the market procurement willingness is relatively low, basically just need to purchase, the overall transaction atmosphere is more insipid, compared with yesterday's transaction situation is basically flat.

The mainstream transaction of Guangdong zinc was 15560-15680 yuan / ton, and the quotation focused on the Shanghai zinc 2005 contract discount of 10-20 yuan / ton, and the discount of 90 yuan / ton in Guangdong stock market was 10 yuan less than that of the previous trading day. In the first trading period, the shipments of the shippers were relatively positive, and some of the shippers took the initiative to lower the prices, a small number of transactions between traders, and a small number of purchases downstream. Kirin, Mengzi, Huize and Tiefeng quoted prices for the Shanghai zinc May contract discount of 10-20 yuan / ton. The second trading period, downstream in the case of falling orders, the purchase volume is limited, the market shipment traders are more, the supply exceeds the demand obviously, the market transaction gradually tilts to the low discount price. Kirin, Mengzi, Huize and Tiefeng offer 20 yuan / ton to the May contract. Qilin, Mengzi, Huize, Tiefeng mainstream transaction in 15560-15680 yuan / ton.

The mainstream transaction of zinc ingots in Tianjin market was 15710-17240 yuan / ton, and that of ordinary brands was 15710-15780 yuan / ton. The contract for 2004 rose by 100 yuan / ton to 150 yuan / ton, and the water in Tianjin was about 40 yuan / ton higher than that in Shanghai. Today, Shanghai zinc weakens, the spot market continues to raise the discount quotation, the quotation is more unified, the ordinary brand red Ye lark reported in the 04 contract rose 120 yuan / ton near, Chi Hong reported in the 04 contract rose 100 yuan / ton near, the high-priced brand Zijin rose 150 yuan / ton to the April contract. Today, traders raised their discount quotations, as a result of the delivery of orders from smelters of various brands at the beginning of the month, resulting in a smaller volume of goods circulating to the spot market and a stronger willingness of traders to offer prices. After the price of zinc fell today, the willingness of downstream enterprises to inquire was more flat than yesterday and kept just in need of procurement. On the whole, the transaction today is flat compared with yesterday. The transaction of zinc ingot is near 1566015730 yuan / ton.


Tin: after the opening of the electronic disk of US $14520 / ton today, the Asian session was generally maintained in the vicinity of the opening price. After the opening of the European market, Lunxi quickly rushed up to US $15045 / ton and fell back under pressure. As of 18: 00, the latest price of Lunxi was US $14900 / ton, showing a positive line. The bottom of the physical part was supported by the 5-10 EMA. Lunxi short-term test above 15000 US dollars / ton near the integer level of resistance. If broken, the next resistance is near the 40-day moving average of $15500 per tonne.

Shanghai tin main force 2006 contract today morning 123550 yuan / ton high opening, the beginning of the market by short pressure quickly fell to a day low of 121430 yuan / ton. Subsequently, the long warehouse Shanghai tin bottom rebounded and all the way up, and finally closed at 122700 yuan / ton, up 600 yuan / ton, up 0.49%, trading volume 27975 hands, position 35376 hands, an increase of 596 hands. Today, Shanghai tin closed with a small negative line, the lower shadow line by the 5-day moving average support, Shanghai tin support is expected to be around the integer level of 120000 yuan / ton.

Spot market, today's mainstream transaction price 126500-128500 yuan / ton, Shanghai and tin spot supply of small brand supply within the day is relatively tight price performance is strong, some traders and downstream enterprises to purchase a small amount, Shanghai and tin spot market overall transaction atmosphere is generally weak. Market Yunxi 128000 yuan / ton, ordinary cloud word 127500 yuan / ton, small brand 126500-127000yuan / ton.


Nickel: Lunni opened at US $11520 / ton today, continuing the upward trend at the end of yesterday's session, rising to a day high of US $11625 / ton, bearing pressure down, and the center of gravity down to US $11570 / ton. Subsequently, Lunni fluctuated around this position in a narrow range, and the upper $11600 / ton position was obviously under pressure. Entering the European period, Lunni shook down again at the beginning of the European market, giving back all the gains during the day. After falling $11505 / ton, it hovered in the narrow range of $11,500-$11,550. As of 17: 45, it was reported at $11540 / ton, up $30 / ton, or 0.26%, from the settlement price of the previous trading day. Trading volume reached 2120 hands, while position decreased by 3200 hands to more than 218000 hands. Lunni temporarily closed in the small balcony today, hovering in the 20-day moving average line, K column above the boll line track pressure, follow-up attention to Lunni can stand 20-day moving average level.

Shanghai nickel 2006 contract opened today at 95600 yuan / ton, at the beginning of the day, the number of high positions, Shanghai nickel downward, the center of gravity around 95100 yuan / ton first-line narrow shock, based on 95000 yuan pass, above 95300 yuan / ton first-line pressure, finally closed at 94970 yuan / ton, compared with the previous trading day settlement price rose 840 yuan / ton, up 0.89%, trading volume decreased by 116000 hands to 372000 hands, position volume decreased 8696 hands to 99192 hands. Most of them left the field in a short period of time. Shanghai nickel closed in the small negative column today, the K column as a whole stood above the 20-day moving average, the shadow line down the 20-day moving average, the bulls again hesitated, the follow-up attention to the long kinetic energy guidance, the 20-day moving average support.

Today, SMM1# offers 95000-96900 yuan per ton for electrolytic nickel. Shanghai nickel morning market after falling back, within the day in the 95000 yuan / ton line to continue the shock pattern. In the spot market, Russian nickel to Shanghai nickel 2005 contract offer 50 yuan to rise 100 yuan / ton; due to the different holding costs of various traders, Russian nickel quotation after the opening of the morning market is more chaotic, although there are a small number of discount quotation in the market, but most mainstream traders still continue to report in the flat water to rise to 100 yuan / ton yesterday. Today, the center of gravity of nickel price moves upstream and downstream is more wait-and-see, the demand is weak, the transaction situation is limited. Jinchuan nickel to Shanghai nickel 2005 contract rose 1500-1600 yuan / ton, transaction is also weak, there are a small number of transactions between traders. Although the supply of goods in Shanghai has been alleviated, the rising water from manufacturers is still about 1500 yuan / ton, so it is expected that the rising water in Jinchuan will continue to be stable in the future. On the other hand, as a result of the strong rebound of Shanghai nickel, the import loss has narrowed. If the import window opens recently, the domestic trade of Russian nickel may fall back.



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