April 7 quotation of scrap copper in Guangdong

In the week ending July 17, China's sulphuric acid market broke the previous high-level stalemate, with prices broadly declining. The SMM China Copper Smelting Acid Index reported at 1,763 yuan/mt, down 21.5 yuan/mt WoW. The core drivers behind this round of price decline are as follows: First, previously shut-down units undergoing maintenance resumed production in a concentrated manner, releasing supply-side growth. Copper smelting units in Shandong, Henan and other regions that were under maintenance earlier have largely resumed operating at full capacity, and the supply of by-product acid rebounded notably. The previous "maintenance-driven price rally" logic that had supported the continuous price rise gradually played out and faded. As the supply tightness eased, downstream resistance to high-priced acid intensified, resulting in a general shift to pushing for lower prices and reducing procurement volumes. Smelters lacked the motivation to hold prices firm. Second, phosphate fertiliser demand entered a seasonal off-season window. After the peak spring plowing preparation season from January to May ends, the autumn fertilizer demand cycle from June to December has not yet fully started, leaving the market currently in a traditional demand gap period. Operating rates at downstream phosphate fertiliser enterprises pulled back, the sulphuric acid procurement pace slowed down markedly, and rigid demand support weakened. Third, the impact of low-priced cargoes flowing across regions triggered a chain of price cuts. After production resumptions and incremental output releases in major producing areas, inter-regional price spreads were gradually compressed. Low-priced cargoes radiated outward, dragging down neighboring markets and forming a regional knock-on price cut reaction, with the overall market transaction center moving down in tandem. Overall, this round of smelting acid price cuts represents a reasonable pullback under the dual impact of supply recovery and the demand off-season. Going forward, attention should be paid to the stability of copper smelter operations and the pace of autumn fertilizer procurement, which will determine the degree of support for acid prices.

[SMM Shanghai spot copper] Social inventory of copper cathode in Shanghai kept declining, and available spot cargoes tightened, which pushed the center of spot premiums steadily higher and hit a new high for the year. Meanwhile, the spot price spread between Shanghai and Guangdong widened further, opening the window for cross-regional transfers. According to SMM, some suppliers have already initiated cargo transfers from Guangdong to Shanghai, and the shipped copper cathode is expected to arrive in the Shanghai market this week.

[Latest Data from General Administration of Customs] In June 2026, China's exports of copper wire rod totaled 32,600 mt, up 7.44% MoM and up 96.1% YoY. From January to June 2026, cumulative imports reached 166,600 mt in physical content, up 97.5% YoY. Exports of refined copper wire with a maximum cross-sectional dimension greater than 6mm stood at 23,000 mt, up 17.47% MoM and up 134.24% YoY. Monthly exports of other refined copper wire were 9,600 mt, down 10.84% MoM but up 41.01% YoY. (HS codes: 74081100, 74081900)