Bill Cost Erodes Price Spread Dividends; Peak Season Expectations Unlikely to Break Supply-Demand Stalemate [SMM Analysis]
[SMM Analysis: Invoice Costs Erode Price Spread Dividends, Peak Season Expectations Fail to Break Supply-Demand Deadlock] In August 2026, the price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap widened from 3,455 yuan/mt at the start of the month to above 5,000 yuan/mt by month-end, reaching a historical extreme range. On August 17, it shot up to 5,533 yuan/mt. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod also fluctuated at elevated levels within the 1,150-2,260 yuan/mt range. On paper, the substitution advantage of copper scrap over copper cathode reached unprecedented levels. However, in sharp contrast to the "golden price spread," spot copper scrap transactions throughout the month failed to see a corresponding surge in volume. The market exhibited a distorted pattern of "high price spreads, low transaction volumes, and strong invoice constraints.