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[forecast] 8:30 in the evening the United States announces that the number of people claiming unemployment benefits at the beginning of the week may reach a new high in the industry.
Apr 2,2020 19:21CST
translation
Source:SMM
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM4, March 2: at 20:30 today, the United States announced the number of people who applied for unemployment benefits at the beginning of the week until March 28. The number of new jobless claims in the United States last week was 3.28 million, four times the previous record set at the height of the global financial crisis. However, the number of confirmed cases in the United States continues to increase. As of April 2, Beijing time, the total number of confirmed cases in the United States has exceeded 210000, reaching 213372, making it the first country in the world with more than 200000 confirmed cases. Economic activity in the states has slowed or stagnated, and the Labor Department has relaxed restrictions on applications, which has also led to a surge in jobless claims. According to a survey of US economists, the number of seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims could climb to 3.5 million in the week to March 28.

The number of initial jobless claims (10,000) in the United States through the current week to 28 March is estimated to be 328.3.

Mechanism prediction

Sam Bullard, an economist at Wells Fargo, said in a report that the figure could reflect new unemployed workers and previous claims that states had not had time to record in the system because of strong demand, estimated at 3.15 million.

Goldman Sachs said it expected to raise initial jobless claims in the US to 6 million from 5.25 million in the week to March 28.

In many ways, Thursday's initial jobless claims report will be more telling and better able to shape the market, said Kathy Lien, managing director of BK Asset Management. The current forecast of 3.5 million sounds good, but the potential figure could be much worse.

Kaitou Macro (Capital Economics) is expected to climb to 5 million. "given the surge in jobless claims to more than 3 million, which appears to be only a small part of the reports in some states, particularly California, we expect unemployment benefits to surge to nearly 5 million," said Michael Pearce, senior US economist at Caitco. "

Morgan Stanley analysts expect initial jobless claims in the US to hit another record high, with initial jobless claims expected to exceed 4.45 million in the week of March 28.

The Andrew Zatlin forecast for SouthBay Research is 6 million. "the states are unable to process the flood of jobless claims in a timely manner. I now believe that states will no longer pursue accuracy but rely on estimates. After all, the money will flow according to the figures they submit, and the states need to get the money as soon as possible. "

 

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