Raw material supply troubles underpinned nickel prices

Published: Feb 6, 2020 13:56
SHFE nickel hit a peak for this week at 106,200 yuan/mt in early morning trade

SHANGHAI, Feb 6 (SMM) – Nickel futures prices edged higher in morning trade on Thursday, after two consecutive days of substantial gains, as concerns grew about nickel pig iron (NPI) production in China and nickel ore supply from the Philippines amid the novel coronavirus outbreak.

Shanghai nickel has largely recovered from Monday’s plunge, with the most active contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange for April delivery standing above the five-day moving average. The contract hit a peak for this week at 106,200 yuan/mt in early morning trade, compared to the close of 105,690 yuan/mt on January 23, the last trading day before the Lunar New Year holiday.  

On the London Metal Exchange, three-month nickel contract ended at $12,720/mt overnight, its highest close in more than a week.  

An SMM survey showed that NPI producers in Inner Mongolia, a major producing hub of such material in China, are operating at low levels, due to a shortage of raw materials and accessories as well as labour forces as the result of the recent epidemic outbreak. Some plants have shut to wait until the epidemic is over, and some plan to follow suit.

Nickel prices were also underpinned by concerns about nickel ore supply, as the major supplier—the Philippine—tightened its noose in all ports, banning the disembarkation of vessel crews while docked at any the Philippine Ports Authority (PPA)-controlled ports, in order to protect Philippine borders from further contamination with the virus. However, vessels calling at any Philippine port more than 14 days after calling at any China port, are allowed without any restrictions.

In the physical market, SMM assessed #1 refined nickel at 105,000-106,000 yuan/mt on Thursday February 6. Shanghai traders offered Russian materials at a premium of up to 100 yuan/mt over the SHFE 2003 contract, and Jinchuan materials at a premium of 800-1,200 yuan/mt.

While premiums were lower than earlier this week, downstream consumers showed little buying interest as they still could not take cargoes from warehouses in Shanghai or nearby regions. There were transactions of Jinchuan nickel done this morning, as cargoes can be shipped from Gansu.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or to learn more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn
For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn
Related News
High-Grade NPI Smelter Profits Squeezed as Ore Prices Rise and Sales Prices Dip
10 hours ago
High-Grade NPI Smelter Profits Squeezed as Ore Prices Rise and Sales Prices Dip
Read More
High-Grade NPI Smelter Profits Squeezed as Ore Prices Rise and Sales Prices Dip
High-Grade NPI Smelter Profits Squeezed as Ore Prices Rise and Sales Prices Dip
[SMM Nickel Flash] Based on nickel ore prices from 25 days ago, smelter profits for high-grade NPI remained high this week. However, from the current raw material side, ore prices from both the Philippines and Indonesia increased, while auxiliary material prices saw a slight pullback, leading to an increase in the cash cost of producing high-grade NPI from spot ore. At the same time, high-grade NPI prices experienced some pullback, making it difficult for smelter profits to see sustained improvement.
10 hours ago
High-Grade NPI Prices Fall, Expected to Stabilize as Chinese New Year Approaches
10 hours ago
High-Grade NPI Prices Fall, Expected to Stabilize as Chinese New Year Approaches
Read More
High-Grade NPI Prices Fall, Expected to Stabilize as Chinese New Year Approaches
High-Grade NPI Prices Fall, Expected to Stabilize as Chinese New Year Approaches
[SMM Nickel Flash] This week, due to a sharp decline in futures triggering arbitrage selling, high-grade NPI prices fell significantly. However, after the selling activity subsided, upstream quotations and the market center gradually returned to normal levels, supported by cost factors. Looking ahead, as the Chinese New Year holiday approaches, market activity is expected to remain subdued, and high-grade NPI prices are projected to hover at highs with limited fluctuations.
10 hours ago
Nickel Prices Drop: SMM 10-12% High-Grade NPI Down 17.2 Yuan, Indonesia NPI FOB Index Falls 2.06 $/mtu
10 hours ago
Nickel Prices Drop: SMM 10-12% High-Grade NPI Down 17.2 Yuan, Indonesia NPI FOB Index Falls 2.06 $/mtu
Read More
Nickel Prices Drop: SMM 10-12% High-Grade NPI Down 17.2 Yuan, Indonesia NPI FOB Index Falls 2.06 $/mtu
Nickel Prices Drop: SMM 10-12% High-Grade NPI Down 17.2 Yuan, Indonesia NPI FOB Index Falls 2.06 $/mtu
[SMM Nickel Flash] The SMM average price of 10-12% high-grade NPI fell 17.2 yuan/mtu WoW to 1,035.8 yuan/mtu (ex-factory, tax included), while the Indonesia NPI FOB index average price dropped 2.06 $/mtu WoW to 131.2 $/mtu. At the beginning of the week, futures hit limit-down, and nickel prices fell sharply WoW, driving the emergence of arbitrage supplies sold at low prices, leading to a significant decline in high-grade NPI prices.
10 hours ago