Long steel social inventories in Guangzhou fell for 4 weeks

This week, ferrous metals mostly retreated after rapid rises, with only coking coal and coke standing out, briefly hitting the daily limit up at the open. Early in the week, the market was primarily characterized by coking coal and coke leading the gains across ferrous metals. A coal mine accident occurred in Shanxi over the previous weekend, strengthening market expectations of tighter supply driven by stricter subsequent regulatory oversight and increased production shutdowns at coal mines. Ferrous metals rebounded on cost support. However, some coal mines quickly resumed production afterward, and combined with the prospect of a US-Iran deal being reached, crude oil declines dragged iron ore prices lower, loosening cost support. Most products except coking coal and coke retreated from highs. In the latter half of the week, data on the five major steel products were released, showing continued inventory destocking but marginally weakening apparent demand, with supply-demand pressure rising somewhat. Spot market side, spot prices remained relatively firm this week, with the spot-futures price spreads for both hot-rolled coil and rebar widening, providing shipment opportunities for basis traders, while end-users continued to restock on a need-based, low-price approach...

In May, copper prices surged before retracing, yet copper scrap payability coefficients remained exceptionally firm. Transactions for Millberry stabilized at a high level of 98.5%, while No. 2 copper became the market highlight, with its coefficient climbing from around 95% to 96%–97% due to the premium upside of its gold and silver by-products. Driven by stricter domestic policies and tax compliance, China demand remained robust. Conversely, tight overseas scrap supply persisted, and this structural mismatch kept import payability coefficients elevated and sticky for the short term. Under the current landscape of tight global supply and resilient demand, the traditional market logic of "surging copper prices driving down payability coefficients" has effectively become obsolete.

[SMM Aluminum Alloy Daily Review] The ADC12 aluminum alloy market was generally stable with slight rise today. Driven by cost pressure, some enterprises raised their quotes slightly by 100 yuan/mt, while most manufacturers remained steady and took a wait-and-see approach. Currently, invoiced aluminum scrap resources remained persistently tight, pushing up procurement costs, and some manufacturers were concerned about potential production reduction risk. However, downstream demand remained mediocre, with limited end-user order release, which constrained price increases.