[2019.11.4 minutes of nickel internal morning meeting] the nickel price is high and volatile, but the spot market is still weak, near strong and far weak, and the pattern is expected to continue to be maintained.

On the macro front, the dollar index fell overall on Friday and fluctuated up and down in the evening, mainly because of mixed releases of economic data. The US non-farm data were better than expected, which some believe will consolidate the Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged next. But the U. S. manufacturing data, released later than expected, magnified the market volatility.

Nickel spot: November 1 spot market Russia and nickel than Shanghai nickel 1911 discount 600 to discount 500, individual cargoes reported discount more than 800 yuan / ton transaction, but the quantity is on the small side. Jinchuan nickel than Shanghai nickel 1911 contract generally reported discount 1911 to 300 yuan / ton, discount than yesterday as a whole to maintain stability. Shanghai nickel 1911 and Shanghai nickel 1912 contract hanging upside down is still above 3000 yuan / ton, the holder continues to quote Shanghai nickel 1911 contract, individual traders contract moved backward, Shanghai nickel 1912 contract quotation, Jinchuan and Russian nickel rising water are above 3000 yuan / ton, but basically no transaction, the market trading is very bleak at the beginning of the month, Jinchuan company ex-factory price 136000 yuan / ton, down 500 yuan / ton from yesterday. In the afternoon, nickel prices strengthened, spot transactions are still light.

Nickel pig iron: Indonesia's large stainless steel plant plans to reduce nickel pig iron production by 20% in November, mainly due to insufficient supply of nickel ore after the start of the rainy season in Indonesia, in order to maintain a certain level of nickel mine reservoir.

Stainless steel: last week 300 series stainless steel demand is weak, cold rolling price enters the dark fall channel. Near the end of the month, hot rolling quotations are mainly flat, there are also price cuts to promote the transaction. Although the hoarding behavior in the early stage of the East China stainless Steel Plant increased uncertainty for the later market trend, according to SMM research, the steel plant began to release goods last week, considering that the cost will not be dumped at a low price, and the current Wuxi market feedback transaction is average, and does not have an impact on the spot market. Prices are expected to run weakly and steadily this week.

A large number of goods were hoarded in the early stage of East China stainless Steel Plant, but the steel plant began to release goods last week, considering that the cost will not be dumped at a low price, which has not yet had an impact on the spot market.

In terms of inventories, nickel stocks were 66306 tons on 1 November, a decrease of 684 tons compared with 31 October.

Total nickel inventories in Shanghai, including previous warehouse receipt inventories, rose 1.9 per cent, or 1.9 per cent, from last week to 75800 tonnes. Domestic stocks rose 2392 tons to 56700 tons from last week, including about 11800 tons of nickel beans and about 44900 tons of nickel plates. Over the same period, refined nickel stocks in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone were about 19100 tons, down 1000 tons from the previous week, of which 5100 tons were nickel beans, the same as last week.

By the end of October, the social inventory of stainless steel in Wuxi had decreased by 6 per cent to 305200 tons, of which the stocks of the 305200 series had increased by 7 per cent to 19700 tons, the stocks of the 305200 series had decreased by 6 per cent to 237000 tons, and the stocks of the 305200 series had decreased by 9 per cent to 48500 tons compared with the previous month. After the National Day, downstream opened a wave of replenishment, coupled with near the end of the year, agents and traders consider the return of funds, weak demand and other reasons for net consumption of inventory, future steel plant inventory pressure increased.

Nickel price judgment: short-term long and short both sides are afraid, the game is fierce, it is difficult to get out of the unilateral market again, maintain the interval concussion pattern.