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Comment on the spot Exchange Day of SMM basic Metals on October 31
Oct 31,2019 19:00CST
Comment on the spot Exchange Day of SMM basic Metals on October 31
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

Copper: the dollar index fell sharply last night after the Fed announced a rate cut, buoyed by a weak dollar, which jumped short at $5899 a tonne today. Copper prices competed around the 5900 mark after the start of trading and returned to above $5900 a tonne before European trading. After entering the European session, the actual monthly rate of retail sales in Germany in September and the initial annual rate of CPI in France in October were lower than expected, superimposed on the poor performance of a series of European economic data released last night, making the market sceptical about the speed of economic recovery in the euro zone. Copper prices fell back quickly, reaching as low as $5845 per ton. At 17-20, bronze closed down 0.58% at $5853 a tonne, with the dollar index at 97. 270 and crude oil at $55. 15 a barrel. In the evening, we pay attention to the initial value of the GDP quarterly rate after the third quarter adjustment in the euro zone, the number of initial jobless claims in the week ending October 26 in the United States, and the Chicago PMI data in the United States in October. At present, Lun Copper closed negative, continuously broke the 5-day and 10-day EMA, the KDJ index intersected and expanded under the opening, and the technology turned empty in the face of copper price. Wait for guidance from the dollar and crude oil at night to test whether Lun Copper can hold the $5850 / tonne position.

Today, the Shanghai copper main contract opened at 47390 yuan / ton in the morning. Immediately after the opening, the bulls closed a large number of positions, and the market quickly fell to around 47300 yuan / tonne. With the release of domestic PMI data for October, which was lower than expected, aggravated domestic concerns about the manufacturing situation. Shanghai copper instantly fell 80 yuan / ton, probing the lowest point of 47270 yuan / ton in the day. In the afternoon, the center of gravity continued to move up to 47360 yuan / ton, closing at 47330 yuan / ton, down 180 yuan / ton. Down 0.38%. Shanghai copper main contract 1912 position decreased by 3604 hands to 214000 hands, trading volume increased by 3036 hands to 16000 hands. At present, the position continues to move backward, Shanghai Copper increased its position by 5464 hands in 2001 to 145000 hands, and Shanghai Copper increased its position by 6012 hands to 62000 hands in 2002. Shanghai copper index positions fell 5356 hands to 535000 hands, trading volume increased 1302 hands to 37000 hands. The contract between Shanghai Copper 1911 and 1912 continues to maintain the Contango structure of about 90 yuan spread. At present, the Shanghai copper collection entity Dayin column, has fallen below the 5-day moving average, MACD red column has been shortened, the technology in the face of the copper market is empty. A large number of economic data will be released in the evening to test whether the copper can continue to stick to the 47300 yuan / ton mark.

Today, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot to the current month contract discount 10 ~ 20 yuan / ton, Pingshui copper transaction price 47160 yuan / ton ~ 47220 yuan / ton, Shengshui copper transaction price 47180 yuan / ton ~ 47240 yuan / ton. Shanghai copper pressure fell to 47200 yuan / ton line, the spot market stalemate unchanged, the last day of the month, market consumption is weak, trade market activity is difficult to improve, the market continued yesterday's quotation, the morning market offer discount 10-liter 20 yuan / ton. Pingshui copper discount 10 yuan / ton is common, the market inquiry atmosphere is still positive, a small amount of supply can have 5 yuan / ton pressure space, good copper to maintain 10 ~ 20 yuan / ton, wet copper continuation supply is abundant, the quotation is generally as low as 60 yuan / ton ~ 50 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the downstream is still waiting and watching, there is no active buying, the offer of the holder remains unchanged, some traders have low prices, but the pressure space is limited, the supply and demand sides continue to pull saws, the market is lacklustre, waiting for tomorrow to cross the month, the transaction is expected to break the deadlock. In the afternoon, the market quotation continued to stalemate, the market willingness to receive goods is weak, there is little purchase downstream, the source of goods in the hands of the holder is also limited, there is no willingness to sell goods for the time being. In the afternoon, Pingshui copper reported 10 yuan / ton-Pingshui, good copper reported 10-20 yuan / ton, the transaction price in the range of 47220 yuan / ton-47270 yuan / ton.

Aluminum: aluminum opened at US $1753 / ton in the morning. The Asian session fluctuated within a narrow range of US $1754 / ton, with a price difference of less than US $5 / ton. After entering the European trading session, Lun aluminum began to leak. The K line chart recorded a negative line lower of US $1739.5 / ton in 5 minutes. As of 18:20, the tail shock of Lun aluminum closed at US $1745.5 / ton, the position increased by 4049 hands to 782000 hands, and the short position increased mainly today. Give back yesterday all the gains closed in the small negative line, down $5.50 / ton, down 0.31%, daily KDJ third line down. It is expected to continue to maintain range volatility in the evening, the upper pressure on the 40-day moving average probability is difficult to break through, pay attention to the trend of the dollar index and the United States in September personal consumption expenditure and other macro data.

The Shanghai Aluminum main Company 1912 contract opened at 13815 yuan / ton in the morning. At the beginning of the day, the aluminum price was pushed up to a high of 13855 yuan / ton and recorded a small cross star. Due to the high pressure above, the aluminum price then fell back to a narrow range of 13820 yuan / ton. In the last trading, it reached 13840 yuan / ton, finally closed at 13810 yuan / ton, up 10 yuan / ton, up 0.07%, the daily K line closed at Cross Star, and the center of gravity was basically flat compared with yesterday. Above the pressure 20-day moving average, trading volume decreased by 31204 hands to 75738 hands, position decreased by 1754 hands to 228000 hands, daily MACD red line elongated. During the day, the trend of Shanghai aluminum main company is stable, the long short position is changeable, the upper pressure level is obvious, it is expected to continue to maintain interval concussion operation in the evening, and continue to pay attention to the changes of long and short positions in the market at night.

Spot market, aluminum in the afternoon to maintain the range volatility. The spot price in Wuxi area of Shanghai is between 13950 and 13970 yuan / ton, the spot price is about 70-80 yuan / ton, the spot rising water is nearly 20 yuan / ton compared with yesterday, the spot price is down 40 yuan / ton compared with yesterday, and the spot price in Hangzhou is 13960-13970 yuan / ton. Today, a large customer maintains the pace of receiving goods, because the holder takes into account the complexity of its trading process, and the pressure of its own capital settlement at the end of the month is greater, so it has not actively shipped to it, and is more inclined to trade with other middlemen, and the willingness to offer is more convergent than a few days ago. Other middlemen are still actively receiving the goods, and the buyers and sellers can deal well. Downstream today on-demand procurement, a small amount of stock, there is not too much bright spot. The overall transaction in East China was normal today. Aluminum in the afternoon to maintain range fluctuations, the market transaction atmosphere and light, although a small number of middlemen still have demand for receiving goods, but the shippers ship less, there are few transactions.

Lead: within the day, Lun lead opened at 2197.5 US dollars / ton, Asia time, Lun lead basically around 2197.5 US dollars / ton shock, entered the European period, Lun lead continued shock market, as of 18: 03, Lun lead temporarily closed at 2199.5 US dollars / ton, up 4.50 US dollars / ton, up 0.21 per cent. Lun lead temporary closure of the small cross star, 5-day moving average turn down, considering that LME lead inventory this week is basically in a state of slow rise, expected night lead or test 20 moving average support.

Within the day, Shanghai lead 1912 contract opened at 16695 yuan / ton, affected by the sharp decline in the outer market, bears took advantage of the opportunity to suppress the lead price to 16545 yuan / ton shock, during the period was as low as 16520 yuan / ton, in the afternoon, due to 16500 yuan / ton integer gate there is strong support, Shanghai lead rose slightly, finally closed at 16600 yuan / ton, down 105 yuan / ton, down 0.63%, the position increased 1152 hands to 60794 hands. Shanghai lead newspaper closed long shadow negative line, did not fall below the concussion platform, coupled with the 5-day moving average trend flat, and from the fundamental point of view, the current price is basically close to the reduction lead smelting cost line, unless the waste battery appears to fall further, otherwise 16500 yuan / ton still has strong support.

Shanghai market Jinsha lead 16545 yuan / ton, to the 1911 contract discount 20 yuan / ton; southern, Mu Ron lead 16535-16545 yuan / ton, to the 1911 contract discount 30-20 yuan / ton, of which white goods can be discounted 50-40 yuan / ton. Under the background of weak domestic fundamentals, Lun lead high level appeared a sharp correction, lead suffered a corresponding decline, the holder quotation went with the market, and many downstream do not hold optimistic expectations for the future, low prices are cautious, bulk market transactions are still relatively light.

Guangdong market South China lead 16550 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead flat quotation; South Storage and Mongolia from 16550 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead flat water quotation (sent to the South Reserve); lead price shock downward, regeneration primary price difference narrowed slightly, but still did not get rid of the situation of deep sticking water, the downstream still gives priority to the purchase of recycled refined lead. Henan Yuguang, Wanyang, Jinli and other smelters mainly to long single transaction; Jinli 16575 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 16575 yuan / ton quotation (source of goods for traders). Lead prices fluctuate downward, holders actively ship, affected by the impact of recycled lead prices, the primary market transactions are bleak. Other areas such as: Hunan Shuikoushan 16450-16480 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 70 to 100 yuan / ton (traders); Jiangxi copper industry 16550 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead flat quotation; Yunnan Zhenxing and small factory report 16200-16250 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 300-350 yuan / ton. Lead price shock downward, downstream consumption is light, the overall transaction is in the doldrums.

Zinc: zinc in Geneva opened at US $2516.5 / ton, opened high and went low at the beginning of the day, quickly dived into US $2492 / ton, found support at the 10-day moving average, and returned to around US $2500 / tonne for consolidation and operation. Near the European trading hour, Lun Zinc tried to break through the suppression of the US $2500 / ton mark, but failed to stand firm. The center of gravity fell back to US $2495 / ton, during which it fell by US $2484 / ton. It then rose above the daily moving average to close at $2493.5 a tonne, down $19, or 0.76 per cent, at 17: 04. Geneva zinc recorded two consecutive shades, the entity operating in the 510 moving average channel. Interest rate cut is basically in line with market expectations, short take advantage of the potential to press Lun Zinc, but under the low inventory back structure is still not narrow, the basic face of Lun Zinc still has a certain support, pay attention to the 5-day moving average at night.

Intraday Shanghai zinc main force 1912 contract opened at 19025 yuan / ton, at the beginning of the day Shanghai zinc short finishing operation, the bulls quickly left the market to suppress the zinc price, Shanghai zinc fell down 18900 yuan / ton, then empty into Duoping Shanghai zinc steadily rebounded, during the attempt to detect the daily average pressing force failed to line, the tail of the small upward. It closed down at 18995 yuan / ton, down 105 yuan / ton, or 0.55%. The trading volume increased by 23570 hands to 248000 hands, and the position decreased by 13036 hands to 175000 hands. Within the day, Shanghai zinc recorded three consecutive shadows, with a long shadow line under the 10-day moving average, within the day 010203 contract cumulative increase of more than 10,000 hands, the main reduction is mainly long, near weak and far strong pattern gradually obvious, at night or still around the 5-day moving average.

The mainstream transaction of zinc in Shanghai was 18950-19030 yuan / ton, and that of Shuangyan was 18950-19030 yuan / ton, that of zinc was 60 yuan / ton in November, that of Shuangyan was 60 yuan / ton in November, and that of zinc was 18880-18960 yuan / ton. Shanghai zinc 1911 shock downward, the first trading session in the morning closed at 18905 yuan / ton. In the first trading session, at the beginning of the session, some of the holders quoted on the 1911 contract rose 50-55 yuan / ton, and then, as the zinc price fluctuated downward, the holder slightly rose the water quotation, the 1911 contract rose 60 yuan / ton; in the second trading session, the zinc price fluctuated, the holder quoted to the 1911 contract rose 60 yuan / ton, the market rarely has the low rising water supply; Zinc prices continue to fluctuate, downstream procurement is mainly bargain buying, today downstream procurement is slightly better, some downstream is still waiting for zinc prices to fall further after the purchase, trade market trading and spot rising water is stable, on the whole, today's market trading has improved.

Guangdong zinc mainstream transaction in 1888018920 yuan / ton, the quotation is concentrated in Shanghai zinc 1912 contract discount 30-40 yuan / ton, Guangdong market than Shanghai stock market discount around 70 yuan / ton. Refinery shipments are normal, the market supply circulation is more abundant. In the morning, the quotation of the cardholder is more scattered, part of the quotation is near 10 yuan / ton to the 12 contract, and some is reported around 30-40 yuan / ton to the 12 contract, and the market transaction is more concentrated in the low price discount. After entering the second trading session, the traders' willingness to offer is still strong, mainly due to the decline in the market, the quotation is concentrated on the 12 contract posted 30 yuan / ton, the consignee is willing to receive the goods near 40 yuan / ton to the 12 contract, and the overall transaction of the market weakens in the second period. On the whole, it is basically flat compared with the day before. Yi Qilin, Cishan, Tiefeng, Mengzi mainstream transactions in 18880-18920 yuan / ton near.

The mainstream transaction of zinc ingots in Tianjin market was 18910-20280 yuan / ton, the mainstream transaction of ordinary brands was 18910-19000 / ton, the 1911 contract rose 20-80 yuan / ton, and the stock market in Tianjin expanded from 20 yuan / ton to 70 yuan / ton. Refinery shipments are normal today. In the market, the circulation of goods still tends to be loose. Today, the market is still mainly in the quotation of the 11 contract. The quotation of the high-priced brand source is concentrated in the vicinity of 20-80 yuan / ton to the 11 contract, and the quotation for the ordinary brand source is about 20 yuan / ton to the 11-liter water. Today, some of the holders have instead quoted prices for the 12 contracts. The source of high-priced brand goods is reported in the vicinity of 0-60 yuan / ton to the 12 contract, and the supply of the ordinary brand is reported to be about flat to the 12 contract. Today, the plate down, rising water also fell, the market trading atmosphere slightly better, but still slightly light, downstream to wait and see inquiry-based, only to maintain rigid demand to take goods. On the whole, the transaction today is slightly better than yesterday. Zi Zijin, Hongye, Bailing, Chi Hong, Xikuang, etc., were traded in 18910-19000 yuan / ton, and Zi Zijin, Chi Hong and Hongye were traded in 18860-18950 yuan / ton.

Tin: after the opening of US $16845 / ton today, there was little trading in Asia. After the opening of the European market, Lunxi concussion all the way down, as of 18: 00, Lunxi's latest price of $16775 / ton, showing a negative line, the physical part is located near the 10-day moving average, the lower shadow line is supported by the 5-day moving average, and the support below Lunxi is expected to be near the 20-day moving average of $16650 / ton. This evening, you can pay attention to the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States as of October 26 (10,000).

Shanghai tin main force 2001 contract last night after the opening of 138690 yuan / ton, at the beginning of the market by the impact of the long departure quickly fell to 138200 yuan / ton near after a small rise, and then until the end of the night, Shanghai tin overall maintained in the daily moving line of 138300 yuan / ton shock finishing. After the opening of 138230 yuan / ton in early trading today, affected by the increase of short positions and the departure of short positions at the beginning of the session, tin in Shanghai showed a trend of restraining and then rising, with the lowest falling to an intraday low of 137820 yuan / ton, and then rebounding to 138400 yuan / ton above the daily average line and consolidation, and finally closed at 138340 yuan / ton, down 410 yuan / ton, down 0.3%. The trading volume was 20180 hands, the position was 39230 hands, and the number was reduced by 1194 hands. The overall center of gravity of Shanghai tin is stable today, and the support below Shanghai tin is expected to be near the 20-day moving average of 137600 yuan / ton.

In the spot market, the mainstream transaction price today is 137000-139500 yuan / ton, and there are some low-priced goods near 136500 yuan / ton in the market. Smelter quotation remains strong, the actual shipment situation is OK, some traders and downstream enterprises today from the smelter procurement. As far as traders are concerned, downstream enterprises have picked up their purchases on demand, and the supply of goods in the market has been favored when the tin plate in Shanghai fell in the morning market. Shanghai tin spot market today affected by downstream procurement, the transaction atmosphere has warmed up. Shanghai period tin 2001 contract next monthly ticket set cloud tin rising water 600-800 yuan / ton, ordinary cloud word discount 400-200 yuan / ton, small brand discount 600-1000 yuan / ton.

Nickel: Lunni Asia opened at $16800 a tonne today. Before noon, Lunni's overall center of gravity fluctuated in a narrow range around the daily average. In the afternoon, Lunni fell from $16850 / tonne to the 10-day moving average of $16600 / tonne, then rebounded and repaired slightly, and the 5-day moving average fell again at $16675 / tonne at 18: 00. Compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, the settlement price fell by $120 / tonne, down 0.71%, the trading volume decreased by 2626 hands to 2022 hands, and the position increased by 1000 hands to 284000 hands. Lunni temporarily closed in the small negative column, the K column fell below the 5-day moving average, the 10-day moving average was supported by $16600 / ton, and the upper 20 / 60 moving average was faced with strong resistance. Today, we pay attention to whether Lunni can stand on the 10-day moving average and hold on to the $16600 / ton level. This evening, we will pay attention to the number of initial jobless claims (10,000) from the United States to October 26, the monthly rate of personal expenditure in the United States in September and the annual rate of the core PCE price index in September in the United States. In October, the PMI; concern in Chicago held a full house vote in the House of Representatives in Washington to formalize the impeachment investigation against Trump.

Shanghai nickel 1912 contract opened today at 133900 yuan / ton, at the beginning of the day, the pressure daily moving average fluctuated slightly, then around 9:40, the long position, Shanghai nickel upward pull up, touch high 134970 yuan / ton, then quickly fell back, to the daily moving average of 134000 yuan / ton for a short time to get support, horizontal plate concussion. In the afternoon, Shanghai nickel went down again, under pressure daily moving average, the lower 5-day moving average was supported, the interval concussion operation, and finally closed at 133700 yuan / ton, compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day rose 350 yuan / ton, up 0.26%, trading volume decreased by 65000 to 672000 hands, position reduced by 8000 to 232000 hands. Shanghai Nickel 2001 contract today increased positions by 1838 to 242074 hands, has become the main position of the contract. Shanghai Nickel 1912 contract closed today in the small Yin column, the bottom of the 5 / 20 moving average crossing support, the upper 135000 yuan / ton level facing strong resistance, this evening concerned about the Shanghai Nickel 134000 yuan / ton level breakthrough.

Spot market, today Russia nickel than Shanghai nickel 1911 discount 1911 to discount 500, Jinchuan nickel Shanghai nickel 1911 contract general discount 1911 to 300 yuan / ton, discount continues to expand compared with yesterday. First, because the Shanghai Nickel 1911 and Shanghai Nickel 1912 contracts are still upside down at 3000 yuan / ton, the holders have postponed the backward movement of the contract one after another, and try to point the goods on the Shanghai Nickel contract 1911. However, at the end of the month, the market trading was very bleak, only a small number of transactions were completed, and the holders cut down the rising water delivery one after another. in the morning inquiry stage, there were basically no transactions, and some of the holders continued to lower the discount level to stimulate spot transactions, but the effect was very small. The ex-factory price of Jinchuan Company is 136500 yuan / ton, 900 yuan / ton higher than yesterday. In the afternoon nickel prices continue to fluctuate around 137000, the spot market continued in the morning, the response was mediocre.

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