[2019.10.30 minutes of Nickel Internal Morning meeting] Nickel prices continue to fluctuate sharply spot trading light Indonesian nickel pig iron manufacturers plan to reduce production

On the macro front, the Fed is set to cut interest rates this week for the third time this year. However, it is expected that the Fed may have taken a wait-and-see attitude towards further easing, strengthening its support for the dollar. Senior SMC research analyst says the market has digested the possibility that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week and that further guidance on whether the Fed will cut interest rates in December is important. The Fed is widely expected to cut interest rates on Wednesday, after which it is expected not to do so for some time, and the most important thing for currency traders is to observe the extent to which the Fed is biased towards doves.

Spot: on October 29, Russian nickel compared with Shanghai nickel 1911 discount 1911 to discount 300, Jinchuan nickel than Shanghai nickel 1911 contract generally reported discount 1911 to 1911 yuan / ton, the discount is slightly larger than yesterday. First, because the Shanghai Nickel 1911 and Shanghai Nickel 1912 contracts are still large, about 3000 yuan / ton, the holders have postponed the backward movement of the contract, try to point the price on the Shanghai Nickel contract 1911, and second, the price has rebounded, the transaction is relatively weak, and the market demand is on the low side. In the morning, Shanghai nickel rebounded after a brief consolidation around 136000, once high in the middle near 140000, although the holder actively shipped, but the actual demand is weak, the transaction is general. The ex-factory price of Jinchuan Company is 137600 yuan / ton, 2100 yuan / ton higher than yesterday. Nickel prices fell back in the afternoon, giving up all the gains, while downstream transactions did not improve.

Nickel pig iron: according to foreign media, Indonesia's large stainless steel plant plans to reduce nickel pig iron production by 20% in November, mainly due to a shortage of nickel mines after the start of the rainy season in Indonesia, in order to maintain a certain level of nickel ore reservoirs. According to SMM, it was confirmed by relevant sources of the company that there was such a plan in November. The company produced about 180000 metal tons of nickel pig iron this month, which would affect about 36000 metal tons if it were to cut production as planned.

Stainless steel market: October 29 Wuxi area quotation: state 3042B cut edge volume price 16000-16200 yuan / ton, private 3042B rough edge volume price 15700-15900 yuan / ton. 304 / NO. 1 five feet at 14900-15000 yuan / ton. By the repeated price of nickel, the morning stainless steel quotation is mainly flat, most of the price is mainly, the market atmosphere is light. For 10:30 SHFE SS2002 contract selling price 15030 yuan / ton, Wuxi stainless steel spot water 540-740 yuan / ton. (spot trimming = rough edges + 170 yuan / ton)

In terms of stocks: nickel stocks were 69162 tons on 29 October, a decrease of 1488 tons from the previous day.

Nickel price judgment: Lunni closed in the upper shadow line small balcony, on the shadow line to explore the 20-day moving average of 17000 US dollars / ton pass, K column still closed below the 60-day moving average, pay attention to the pressure of the 60-day moving average today. Overnight Shanghai nickel closed in the small positive line, the whole operation in the 5 / 20 moving average range, today pay attention to the 20 days moving average pressure above Shanghai nickel.