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Comment on the spot Exchange Day of SMM basic Metals on October 29th
Oct 29,2019 18:18CST
Comment on the spot Exchange Day of SMM basic Metals on October 29th
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

Copper: today's Yapanlun copper opened at 5916 US dollars / ton, after the opening due to the guidance of macro weakness, the copper price center of gravity shock downward, sub-plate end down 5892.5 US dollars / ton. Then into the European market, at the beginning of the market was affected by the improvement in Sino-US trade sentiment, recovered the morning decline, short-term break through the 5920 level, but soon fell back, sticking to the 5900 level, and then announced that today's LME copper inventory fell by 4900 tons, macro plus good inventory copper prices, copper prices rose to a high of $5941.5 / ton in the short term. As of 17: 30, Lun Copper closed at $5924.5 / ton, up 0.147%. The dollar index was at 97.882, and US crude oil was at $55.32 a barrel. Focusing on US real estate data and the Conference Board consumer confidence index in October, the US dollar is expected to perform well in the dollar, and the dollar has recently rebounded. Macroscopically, the pending Brexit has stimulated risk aversion in the market, which is detrimental to copper prices, but the market is also concerned about the supply side of the copper market and supports copper prices. At present, the technical performance of Lun copper is still strong, and it is expected to maintain a high shock pattern in the evening. Waiting for guidance from the dollar and crude oil at night to test whether Lun Copper can stand at the $5920 / tonne level.

Today, the main copper contract in Shanghai opened at 47480 yuan / ton in the morning, opening at an intraday high, and then copper prices fell step by step. In the second quarter of trading, the center of gravity stabilized at 47420 yuan / ton, and fell to around 47390 yuan / ton near the end of midday. In the afternoon, the center of gravity continued to move slightly down to 47360 yuan / ton, closing down at 47340 yuan / ton, down 140 yuan / ton, or 0.29%. Shanghai copper main contract 1912 position decreased by 2724 hands to 225000 hands, mainly for the long reduction; trading volume decreased by 46000 hands to 90, 000 hands. Shanghai copper position continued to move backward, Shanghai copper 2001 contract daily position increased by 3380 hands to 136000 hands; Shanghai copper 2002 contract day increased position by 5988 hands to 54000 hands. The Shanghai copper index fell 1836 hands to 540000, while trading volume fell 53000 to 208000. Today, the trend of the market is more tired, the center of gravity of copper in Shanghai has moved down, mainly because investors are still worried about weak macroeconomic demand, crude oil has also continued to fall back, and has broken through the 55 level, coupled with the weakness of recent multinational economic data, it is also confirmed that the macro level has not improved and it is difficult for copper prices to rise. At present, Shanghai copper is supported by the solid big yin column, the MACD red column is shortened, and the technical surface is multi-copper support is insufficient. The level of 47300 yuan / ton was further tested in the evening.

Today, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot to the current month contract discount 10 ~ 20 yuan / ton, Pingshui copper transaction price 47340 yuan / ton ~ 47390 yuan / ton, Shengshui copper transaction price 47360 yuan / ton ~ 47400 yuan / ton. Shanghai copper is blocked by 47400 yuan / ton in the morning. In the morning, the offer of the holder is firm in flat water ~ 30 yuan / ton, but when the copper price is high and all VAT tickets are closed, it is very difficult for the downstream to have the willingness to receive goods into the market, while the willingness of traders to receive goods is at a relatively high discount level and in the absence of trading. In the case of lack of trading, the overall quotation appears loose decline, and the good copper price is adjusted down to 10 ~ 20 yuan / ton. Pingshui copper discount 10 yuan / ton, the transaction slightly improved, wet copper supply is stable in the discount 40 ~ 30 yuan / ton range. Traders intend to receive more goods at discount, while holders have not increased the rate of price reduction for the time being, there is little price difference between good copper and flat copper, the stalemate between buyers and sellers is obvious, and the spot trade trading atmosphere is difficult to improve for the time being. In the afternoon, the price of the plate fell slightly, the mood of buying goods at low prices in the market improved slightly, and soon the holder raised his quotation, and the market fell into a stalemate again. In the afternoon, Pingshui copper reported 10-20 yuan / ton, good copper 20-30 yuan / ton, the transaction price in the range of 47290 yuan / ton-47330 yuan / ton.






Aluminum: Shanghai Aluminum main Company 1912 contract opened in the morning at 13790 yuan / ton, briefly explored 13805 yuan / ton at the beginning of the day, then opened high and low to record a long negative line, because of the short entry, the aluminum price dropped to 13740 yuan / ton, and then began to rise from the low level, crawling along the 5-day moving average to around 13780 yuan / ton. At this time, it was blocked in the 60-day moving average, the aluminum price hovered briefly, the short positions were reduced one after another at the end of the day, and more than 3,000 hands were closed in 15 minutes. The aluminum price broke through 13795 yuan / ton at the end of the day, closing at 13785 yuan / ton, trading volume increased by 27410 hands to 116000 hands, and position volume increased by 5456 hands to 240000 hands. Short positions increased mainly, closing at Xiaoyin line, down 40 yuan / ton, down 0.29%. The center of gravity is below the 20-day moving average, and the third line of daily KDJ is down. Shanghai aluminum trend is not strong within the day, short still have a strong motivation, as time gradually into November, expected to follow-up consumption expectations gradually clear, pay attention to long short positions and market atmosphere changes, is expected to continue to maintain a weak range of shocks in the evening. Lun Aluminum opened at US $1735.5 / ton in the morning, and maintained a narrow range in Asian trading, with a price difference of less than US $5 / ton. after entering the European trading session, Lun Aluminum began to climb from its low, rising all the way to a high of US $1743.5 / ton, refreshing to a one-week high, and continued to show a slight shortage of upward power, closing at US $1741 / ton at 18:00, up 4.50 US dollars / ton, an increase of 0.26%. Trading volume decreased by 3106 hands to 2679 hands, recording three small positive lines, with the center of gravity jumping above the 5 / 10-day moving average, but there is still a certain distance from the above 40-day moving average, which is expected to continue to maintain range volatility in the evening, with limited space above. In the evening, we will continue to pay attention to macro data such as the dollar index, the September US existing home sales index and the Conference Board consumer confidence index.

Aluminum futures maintain range fluctuations before noon of the month. The spot price in Wuxi area of Shanghai is between 13940 yuan / ton and 13960 yuan / ton, and the rising water is about 90 yuan / ton, which is nearly 40 yuan / ton lower than that of yesterday, and the spot price in Hangzhou area is between 13940 yuan / ton and 13960 yuan / ton. Today, the price fell, a large household took the lead in receiving more than 10,000 tons, the enthusiasm of the holder was higher than yesterday, the middleman received the goods at a lower price, the buyer and seller were active, and the transaction was better than yesterday. Downstream manufacturers as a result of the price drop, curbed a few days of demand to be partially released, today's delivery status is better than yesterday, but compared with the substantial receipt of goods is still a certain distance. The overall transaction in East China today was all right. Afternoon aluminum to maintain range fluctuations, the holder quoted around 13950 yuan / ton, the rising water of 90 to 100 yuan / ton, the market trading atmosphere is light, almost no transaction.





Lead: within the day, Lun lead opened at $2226.5 / ton, Asia period, Lun lead basically around the daily average line, entered the European period, the outer disk of non-ferrous metals as a whole strengthened, Lun lead also took advantage of the trend to 2241 US dollars / ton, as of 17: 36, Lun lead temporarily closed at 2239 US dollars / ton, up 10.50 US dollars / ton, up 0.47%. Lun lead closed barefoot small positive line, run along the uplink channel, LME rising water back structure, as well as technical long market, or will promote Lun lead to continue to strengthen at night, and try to hit the $2250 / ton level.

Within days, Shanghai lead 1912 contract opened at 16730 yuan / ton, at the beginning of the day, Shanghai lead basically along 16725 yuan / ton shock, after short entry to suppress lead price to 16630 yuan / ton, and then Shanghai lead under pressure in the daily average line, and around 16660 yuan / ton platform operation, finally closed at 16670 yuan / ton, down 55 yuan / ton, down 0.33%, position reduced 2368 hands to 60940 hands. Shanghai lead closed at the cross, the upper averages still suppress the pace of Shanghai lead uplink, considering entering the European period, Lun lead continued to strengthen, expected to boost Shanghai lead upward at night, but the upward space may be limited.

Shanghai market Jinsha lead 16755 yuan / ton, to the 1911 contract discount 20 yuan / ton; southern, Mu Ron lead 16745-16755 yuan / ton, to the 1911 contract discount 30-20 yuan / ton, of which white goods can be discounted 50-40 yuan / ton. Period lead high dive, the holder maintains the discount quotation, but the downstream market demand is low, in addition, the recycled lead and the primary lead price difference is big, the trading market trading activity is poor.

Guangdong market South China lead 16675 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead flat quotation; lead price continues shock market, recycled lead still maintains deep discount quotation, downstream still gives priority to buy recycled refined lead, primary lead market trading is squeezed. Henan Yuguang, Wanyang and other smelters mainly to long single transaction; Jinli 16575 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 100 yuan / ton quotation. Lead price weak shock, the holder is active shipment, by the recycled lead price impact, the primary market transaction is bleak. Other areas such as: Hunan Shuikoushan 16625-16675 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 50 to Pingshui quotation (traders); Hunan Jingui 16525 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 150 yuan / ton; Jiangxi copper industry 16675 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead quotation; Yunnan Zhenxing and small factory quoted 16325-16375 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 300350 yuan / ton. Lead price shock operation, downstream consumption is light, the overall transaction is in the doldrums.





Zinc: Geneva zinc opened at US $2536 / ton, and at the beginning of the day, the daily moving average of zinc rose to about US $2545 / ton, and then fell back slightly, with its center of gravity running around US $2535 / ton. During the European trading session, Lun Zinc rose again, reaching US $2550 / ton, which coincided with the strong pressure on Brindaway, and the pressure on Lun Zinc fell back to near the opening price. As of 17 / 09, Lun Zinc closed at US $2553 / ton. It rose 17 cents a ton, or 0.65 percent. Geneva zinc re-harvest Xiaoyang line, the overall pressure Brin Road on the track operation, low inventory brought about by the fundamentals of support superimposed macro mood has been alleviated, Len Zinc borrow high, on the action can be more sufficient, pay attention to Brin Road on the track suppression at night.

Intra-day Shanghai zinc main force 1912 contract opened at 19175 yuan / ton, early in the day Shanghai zinc in 19130 yuan / ton line slightly collated, Xu Li rose to 19170 yuan / ton above the daily average line, but many left Shanghai zinc failed to stick to, all the way down to the lower 19060 yuan / ton around, and then rose to 19100 yuan / ton first-line finishing operation, the operating range does not exceed 20 yuan / ton, closed up 19110 yuan / ton, up 145 yuan / ton, up 0.76%. Trading volume decreased by 194000 hands to 298000 hands, position increased by 542 hands to 198000 hands. Within days, Shanghai zinc closed yin, attached to the long shadow line stabbed Brin Road on the track, the layout of funds in the day far month, the main contract left the field resulting in Shanghai zinc downward, showing that spot water failed to support zinc prices, the bulls did not have sufficient confidence, pay attention to Brin Road on the track at night to suppress the strength.

The mainstream transaction of zinc in Shanghai was 19130-19190 yuan / ton, and that of Shuangyan was 19120-19200 yuan / ton, that of zinc was 50-70 yuan / ton in November, that of Shuangyan was 60 yuan / ton in November, and that of zinc was 19050-19130 yuan / ton. In the first trading period, the morning holder quotes 70 yuan / ton to the 1911 contract, the market mainstream quotes to the SMM net average price is flat, but the transaction is few, the spot rising water is reduced to 1911 liters 60 yuan / ton, some cardholders to the SMM net average price discount 5-10 yuan / ton quotation; In the second trading session, zinc prices continued to be strong. At the beginning of the session, the holder further lowered the price of rising water to 50 yuan / ton for the 1911 contract, and the enthusiasm of the market for receiving goods was enhanced, which led to the stabilization of spot rising and falling water, and finally reported 60 yuan / ton to the 1911 contract. Zinc prices continue to be strong, SMM0# zinc prices rose 400 yuan / ton in two days, the downstream fear of high cautious mining, mostly wait-and-see, the trade market is more worried about rising water further downward, spot high water mining buy downturn, but in the spot water 50 yuan / ton procurement enthusiasm can be, in the afternoon to further pay attention to Shanghai spot water changes.

Guangdong zinc mainstream transaction in 1909019140 yuan / ton, the offer is concentrated in Shanghai zinc 1912 contract discount 30-40 yuan / ton, Guangdong market than Shanghai stock market discount maintained at 80 yuan / ton yesterday. Refinery shipments are normal, the market supply circulation is more abundant. In the morning, the quotation of the cardholder focused on the discount of 30 yuan / ton to the 12 contract, but the consignee was willing to receive the goods at the discount of 40 yuan / ton on the 12 contract, the transaction was more divided, and the overall transaction situation was slightly deadlocked. Entering the second trading period, the market quotation is concentrated in the discount of 40 yuan / ton to the 12 contract, the superposition disk surface goes down rapidly, the market transaction is better, most of them are traders, and the willingness to buy downstream is relatively limited. The overall transaction was basically flat compared with yesterday. Yi Qilin, Cishan, Tiefeng, Mengzi mainstream transactions in 1909019140 yuan / ton near.

The mainstream transaction of zinc ingots in Tianjin market was 19110-20500 yuan / ton, and that of ordinary brands was 191101920 / ton. The rising water of 1911 contract was about 0-80 yuan / ton, and the rising water of Tianjin market was narrowed from 40 yuan / ton to Pingshui. Refinery shipments are normal today. In the market, the circulation of goods still tends to be loose. The quotation of the high-priced brand source is concentrated in the vicinity of 20-80 yuan / ton to the 11 contract, and the quotation for the ordinary brand source is about 0-50 yuan / ton to the 11-liter water. Today, the disk high shock, the downstream buy little, the holder saw the trend to take the initiative to lower the rising water, the supply of high-priced brands from the beginning of the 11 contract price of 80 yuan / ton gradually reduced to 20 yuan / ton, ordinary brands also from the beginning of the 11 contract price of about 50 yuan / ton down to flat water. However, the disk high shock hit the downstream enthusiasm for taking goods, even if rising water down is also difficult to boost the willingness to buy, on the whole, today's transaction is worse than yesterday. Zi Zijin, Red Ye, Bailing, Chi Hong, Xikuang and other transactions in 19110-19220 yuan / ton, Zi Zijin, Chi Hong, Hongye and other transactions in 19060-19170 yuan / ton.




Tin: after the opening of US $16700 / ton today, there was little trading between morning and noon in the Asian plate. Lunxi remained consolidated near the opening price in the afternoon. After the opening of the European market, the beginning of the session fell slightly to $16655 / ton and then hit bottom and rose quickly. As of 17: 00, the latest price of Lunxi was $16765 / ton, showing a small positive line. The physical part is located near the 5-and 40-day moving average, and the lower shadow line is supported by the 20-day moving average. It is expected that the support below Lunxi is near the 20-day moving average of $16600 / ton, and the upper resistance is near the 10-day moving average of $16800 / ton. In the near future, we can take a look at the monthly rate (%) of the index of contract sales of existing homes after the September seasonal survey in the United States this evening and the change in API crude oil stocks announced in the early hours of the next morning (10,000 barrels) for the week ended October 25.

Shanghai main tin 2001 contract last night after the opening of 139110 yuan / ton, the beginning of the session quickly fell to last night's low of 138690 yuan / ton, and then until the end of the night Shanghai tin overall maintained at 138900 yuan / ton below the daily average near shock finishing. After the opening of 138800 yuan / ton in early trading today, due to the departure of both long and short sides, Shanghai tin remained in the vicinity of 138500 yuan / ton shock finishing, and finally closed at 138540 yuan / ton, down 480 yuan / ton, down 0.35%. The trading volume was 22322 hands, the position volume was 40488 hands, and the number of hands was reduced by 686 hands. Today, Shanghai tin closed with a small negative line, the physical part is located near the 10-day moving average, below by the 5-day moving average support, Shanghai tin is expected to support below the 20-day moving average of 137500 yuan / ton.

In the spot market, today's mainstream trading price is 137,000 to 139500 yuan per ton. Most of the transactions in smelters are still light, and some small refineries are OK. Traders, some businesses receive a small amount of goods, foreign sales are generally not very satisfactory. A small amount of on-demand procurement by downstream enterprises. Shanghai tin spot market today the overall trading atmosphere is generally weak. For the Shanghai tin 2001 contract next month, the cloud tin rising water is 500 to 1000 yuan / ton, the ordinary cloud character discount is 300 yuan / ton, and the small brand discount is 600 to 1, 000 yuan / ton.




Nickel: Lunni opened at $16505 / tonne today. After the opening, Lunni swung all the way up, touching the $17000 / tonne level. At noon, the center of gravity fluctuated narrowly around $16900 / tonne. In the afternoon, Lunni fell rapidly, giving back all its pre-afternoon gains, falling to support near the opening price, and rebounding slightly to $16695 / tonne at 16: 30, up $140 / tonne, or 0.85 per cent, from the settlement price of the previous session, with trading volume down 5518 hands to 4231 hands and 282000 positions. Lunni temporarily closed in the small positive line of the upper shadow line, the lower 10-day moving average of US $16500 / ton is supported, and the upper 20-day moving average of US $17000 / ton faces strong resistance. This evening, we will pay attention to the pressure of US $16700 / ton of Lunni's 5-day moving average.

This evening, we looked at the monthly rate of contract sales of existing homes in the United States in September, and the Conference Board consumer confidence index in October.

Shanghai Nickel 1912 contract opened at 132230 yuan / ton today, after the opening, Shanghai nickel shock strengthened, 10:30 or so, straight-line pull up, break through 136000 yuan / ton barrier, rush up 136630 yuan / ton, then float back down, in 135700 yuan / ton first-line concussion operation. In the afternoon, the long profit reduced positions, Shanghai nickel shock downward, give up all the gains before noon, fell to near the opening price, closed at 132640 yuan / ton, compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day fell 230 yuan / D tons, down 0.17%, trading volume increased by 284000 hands to 1.241 million hands, position decreased by 24000 hands to 256000 hands. Shanghai nickel closed in the long shadow line small negative line, the shadow line pierced the 40-day moving average, breaking through the 136000 yuan / ton barrier, but finally closed near the 20-day moving average, the K-column overall pressure of 133000 yuan / ton first line, pay attention to the resistance of the 20-day moving average to Shanghai nickel tonight.

Today, Russia and nickel than Shanghai nickel 1911 discount 500 to discount 300, Jinchuan nickel than Shanghai nickel 1911 contract generally reported discount 300 to 100 yuan / ton, discount than yesterday slightly expanded. First, due to the inverted hanging of Shanghai Ni 1911 and Shanghai Ni 1912 contracts is still relatively large, about 3000 yuan / ton, holders have delayed the contract to move back, as far as possible in Shanghai Ni contract 1911 on the price of shipment, second, the price rebounded, the transaction is light, the market demand is less. Shanghai nickel around 136000 short consolidation in the morning after a continuous rebound, once in the middle of the high around 140000, although the holder discount positive shipment, but the actual demand is weak, the transaction is general. The ex-factory price of Jinchuan Company is 137600 yuan / ton, 2100 yuan / ton higher than yesterday. Nickel prices fell back in the afternoon, giving up all the increases, while downstream transactions did not improve.


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