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Comment on the spot Exchange Day of SMM basic Metals on October 28th
Oct 28,2019 18:28CST
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Source:SMM
Comment on the spot Exchange Day of SMM basic Metals on October 28th
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

Copper: Yapanlun copper opened high at $5911.5 a tonne today, and copper prices rose $5927 a tonne in the morning because of positive sentiment over the weekend in trade between China and the United States. But the news was quickly digested and Brexit was still up in the air, with the market expected to postpone until next year, with the dollar rushing higher and the overall focus of copper falling, moving down to near the $5900 mark at noon. Until entering the European plate, the short-term copper price rebounded at the beginning of the session at $5920 / tonne, then quickly fell back, down $5893 / tonne. As of 17: 10, Lun Copper closed down 0.14 percent at $5900 a tonne, with the dollar index at 97.779 and US crude oil at $56.27 a barrel. The evening economic data is light, the recent copper price is mainly affected by the raw material supply tension, the performance of high volatility, but the macro weakness makes the upward space of copper price limited. At present, the overall performance of the technical side is strong, and there are signs of convergence in the high opening of KDJ index. Waiting for guidance from the dollar and crude oil at night to test whether Lun Copper can stand at the $5900 / tonne level.

 

Today, the Shanghai copper main contract opened in the morning at 47550 yuan / ton, the opening is to rush the day's highest level of 47640 yuan / ton, followed by lack of market confidence, a large number of short positions, until the second quarter trading center of gravity in 47450 yuan / ton shock, afternoon opening, the center of gravity briefly in 47450 yuan / ton shock, then moved up to 47500 yuan / ton, close at 47430 yuan / ton, up 70 yuan / ton, up 0.15%. Shanghai copper main contract 1912 position increased by 4030 hands to 228000 hands, trading volume increased by 8974 hands to 137000 hands. The Shanghai copper index increased its position by 308 hands to 542000, while trading volume increased by 20, 000 to 261000. At present, the 1911 and 1912 contracts continue to maintain the Contango structure, and the price spread has been widened to 90 yuan / tonne. Today, the overall performance of Shanghai copper is high and low, the main reason is that after the optimistic news of short-term OPEC production reduction has been digested, the market is still dominated by the weak macro situation, coupled with the current obstruction of Brexit, aggravating the market risk aversion and worries about the European economy, copper prices remain stable and high. At present, Shanghai copper receiving cross star, the upper film line is too long, showing that the market selling pressure is heavy, the technical side is difficult to say good. In the evening test Shanghai copper can continue to hold 47400 yuan / ton level.

 

Today, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot to the current month contract discount 10 ~ 20 yuan / ton, Pingshui copper transaction price 47340 yuan / ton ~ 47390 yuan / ton, Shengshui copper transaction price 47360 yuan / ton ~ 47400 yuan / ton. Shanghai copper is blocked by 47400 yuan / ton in the morning. In the morning, the offer of the holder is firm in flat water ~ 30 yuan / ton, but when the copper price is high and all VAT tickets are closed, it is very difficult for the downstream to have the willingness to receive goods into the market, while the willingness of traders to receive goods is at a relatively high discount level and in the absence of trading. In the case of lack of trading, the overall quotation appears loose decline, and the good copper price is adjusted down to 10 ~ 20 yuan / ton. Pingshui copper discount 10 yuan / ton, the transaction slightly improved, wet copper supply is stable in the discount 40 ~ 30 yuan / ton range. Traders intend to receive more goods at discount, while holders have not increased the rate of price reduction for the time being, there is little price difference between good copper and flat copper, the stalemate between buyers and sellers is obvious, and the spot trade trading atmosphere is difficult to improve for the time being. As the source of discount goods is quickly received by the market, so the spot market in the afternoon has been difficult to see discount quotation, and most of the holders do not have financial pressure, so they are not willing to sell at reduced prices, the overall performance of the market is strong but deadlocked. In the afternoon, Pingshui copper reported flat water-water 10 yuan / ton, good copper reported water 10-water 20 yuan / ton, transaction price in the range of 47330 yuan / ton-47410 yuan / ton.

 

 

 

 

 

Aluminum: aluminum opened at $1731.5 / ton in the morning, maintained a wide shock during the day, fell $1728 / ton twice, stopped at $1734.5 / ton, and the price difference between high and low was less than $7 / ton within the day. As of 17:40, the end of the day showed horizontal trading, closing at $1732.5 / ton, down $2 / ton, down 0.12%, closing at the small positive line, position increased by 5950 hands to 753000 hands, trading volume decreased by 4905 hands to 1528 hands. Close in the small positive line, daily KDJ three lines up, MACD red line elongated, the center of gravity is above the 510 / 20 moving average, but considering the low level below the two tests in the day, and the lack of upward momentum, it is expected that there will be a significant rise in the evening. Pay attention to the trend of the dollar index and the process of the British parliamentary election in the evening.

 

The Shanghai aluminum main company 1912 contract opened in the morning at 13850 yuan / ton, down 13810 yuan / ton at the beginning of the session, then rebounded low, around 13825 yuan / ton wide shock, closed at 13825 yuan / ton, up 10 yuan / ton, up 0.07%. Intra-day aluminum prices fluctuated in the performance range, during the period of two downturns stopped at 13810 yuan / ton, closed at the small positive line, the top pressure 20 moving average, position increased by 260 to 235000 hands, trading volume decreased by 5460 to 88684 hands, daily KDJ three-line polymerization, MACD red line elongated. Although the market expectations for forward consumption are weak, short-term spot strength suppresses short-term confidence, aluminum prices are difficult to fall back quickly, and it is expected to continue to maintain interval volatility in the evening, try to explore the strength of 13800 yuan / ton gate support, and continue to pay attention to the change of long short positions and the pace of new production capacity of aluminum plants.

 

Aluminum in the current month before noon to maintain interval fluctuations. The spot price in Wuxi is between 1398014000 yuan / ton, the rising water on the disk is about 100-110 yuan / ton, and the spot price in Shanghai is 13970-13990 yuan / ton. Compared with last Friday, the price is basically the same, and the spot price in Hangzhou is 1399014010 yuan / ton. Today, the shipper shipment is still not much, the middleman receiving goods is still active, the two sides can trade, rising water high performance of the spot market is tight. Today, the downstream is still mainly on-demand goods, not a large number of replenishment, Gaosheng water hold a wait-and-see attitude. The overall transaction in East China was normal today. In the afternoon, aluminum continued to maintain range fluctuations, the market holder quotation in the vicinity of 13990 yuan / ton, the disk rose near 100 yuan / ton, only part of the transaction between traders.

 

 

 

 

Lead: within the day, lun lead opened at 2216 US dollars / ton, in Asian time, Lun lead quickly rose to 2225 US dollars / ton, and then fell back as the domestic lead price weakened, and the low level fell to 2212.5 US dollars / ton at one point. Entering the European period, Lun lead once again quickly pulled up the uplink to make up for the morning decline. By 16: 50, Lun lead was quoted at US $2222 / ton, up US $5 / ton, up 0.23 per cent. Low inventories combined with the structural expansion of Back, still give Lun lead a certain upward momentum, but today Lun lead under pressure on the 5-day moving average, 5-day moving average above the rebound there are signs of hindrance, the recent focus on the strength of $2200 support.

 

Within days, Shanghai lead 1912 contract opened at 16750 yuan / ton, non-ferrous metals rose rapidly at the beginning of the session, Shanghai lead followed the uplink, high once rose to 16810 yuan / ton, and then with the weak fundamentals, Shanghai lead high once again by short allocation downside, low down to 16655 yuan / ton, the basic return of all the gains in the day, and finally reported at 16700 yuan / ton. For domestic lead prices, gradually into the high range shock pattern, high 17000 yuan / ton, low support platform 16600 yuan / ton, but due to the weak lead fundamentals, the trend is still downward, but due to the existence of internal and external sets of open plate support, domestic lead material resistance is better than Lun lead.

 

Shanghai market Jinsha lead 16725-16735 yuan / ton, to the 1911 contract discount 20-10 yuan / ton; southern, Mu Ron lead 1671525-16725 yuan / ton, to the 1911 contract discount 30-20 yuan / ton, of which white goods can be discounted 50-40 yuan / ton. Lead shock consolidation, the holder quotation with the market, the price discount is basically the same as last week, while recycled lead is still shipped with a large discount, the trade market is light. In addition, the ratio of lead to Shanghai and Lun has narrowed recently, and the export window of lead ingot is about to open, so we should continue to pay attention to its trend.

 

Guangdong market South China lead 16675 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead flat quotation; lead price stabilized, but recycled lead still maintains the deep discount quotation, the downstream still gives priority to buy recycled refined lead, the primary lead market is squeezed. Henan Yuguang, Wanyang and other smelters mainly to long single transaction; Jinli 16575 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 100 yuan / ton quotation. Lead price weak shock, the holder is active shipment, by the recycled lead price impact, the primary market transaction is bleak. Other areas such as: Hunan Shuikoushan 16625-16675 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 50 to flat water quotation (traders); Jiangxi copper industry 16675 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead flat quotation; Yunnan Zhenxing and small factory quoted 16325-16375 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 300-350 yuan / ton. Lead price shock operation, downstream consumption is light, the overall transaction is in the doldrums.

 

 

 

 

 

Zinc: zinc in Geneva was opened at US $2512.5 / ton, and Zinc rose steadily, breaking through the suppression of the daily average line, finishing and operating around US $2520 / ton, and entering the European trading session, Lun Zinc returned to rise, touching US $2545 / ton. however, under the strong pressure on the upper Brin Road, Lun Zinc fell back to clean up and run near the daily average line. As of 17: 10, Lun Zinc closed at US $2531 / ton, up US $16.50 / ton. Up 0.66%. Geneva Zinc again, attached to the shadow line stabbing Brin Road on the track, overseas back structure once again expanded, inventory low level is still down, overseas supply shows tension, Lun Zinc waiting for the opportunity to go higher. Pay attention to the suppression of Brin Road at night.

 

The 1912 contract of the main force of Shanghai zinc opened at 19005 yuan / ton at the beginning of the day, and how flat it was at the beginning of the day. Shanghai zinc briefly fell 18935 yuan / ton, just as the support strength of the 10-day moving average line appeared. The center of gravity of Shanghai zinc operation moved up to 19070 yuan / ton, and the operating range did not exceed 40 yuan / ton. during this period, Shanghai zinc several attempts to test Brin Road on the track suppression efforts have failed to line, tail slightly upward, closed up 19110 yuan / ton, up 315 yuan / ton from the previous trading. Up 1.68%, trading volume increased by 132000 hands to 492000 hands, position decreased by 16874 hands to 198000 hands. Within the day, Shanghai zinc received the Dayang line, with a short upper film line to stab Brin Road on the track, the trend of the outer plate is relatively strong, short did not have sufficient confidence, stacked within the day of the three places recorded a decline in social inventory, mainly short positions during the day. Pay attention to the suppression of Brin Road at night.

 

The mainstream transaction of zinc in Shanghai was 1907019140 yuan / ton, and that of Shuangyan was 1908019160 yuan / ton, that of zinc was 60-70 yuan / ton in November, that of Shuangyan was 80 yuan / ton in November, and that of zinc was 19000-19070 yuan / ton. In the first trading session, the morning holder quoted 90 yuan / ton on the 1911 contract, while the mainstream quotation in the market was flat on SMM, but the transaction was very few, the spot rising water was reduced to 80 yuan / ton to 1911 liter water; in the second trading period, the zinc price continued to be strong, holding the stock further lowered the rising water quotation, the 1911 contract rose 60-70 yuan / ton; the second trading period, the zinc price continued the strong market, the holding further lowered the rising water quotation, to the 1911 contract rose 60-70 yuan / ton; Enter this week, due to no invoice pressure coupled with the end of long single delivery, spot rising water quickly down, and today with the rapid rise in zinc prices, downstream mining and buying mood is low, mostly wait-and-see, market trading is poor today.

 

The mainstream transaction of Guangdong zinc was 189501930 yuan / ton, and the quotation focused on the discount of 30-50 yuan / ton to the Shanghai zinc 1912 contract. The discount in Guangdong stock market was narrowed from 90 yuan / ton to 80 yuan / ton on Friday. Refinery shipments are normal, the market supply circulation is more abundant. In the morning, the quotation of the holder focused on the discount of 20-30 yuan / ton on the 12 contract, some of the holders took the lead in lowering the discount to 40 yuan / ton, the market transaction focused on the low price discount, and the quotation of 20 yuan / ton in the 1912 contract basically disappeared. Entering the second trading session, the market continued to pull up, the market price down again, trading concentrated in the 1912 contract discount around 40-50 yuan / ton. On the whole, the market transaction atmosphere has weakened slightly, the downstream is mainly inquiry and wait-and-see, traders contribute to the main trading. Yi Qilin, Cishan, Tiefeng, Mengzi mainstream transactions in 18950-19030 yuan / ton near.

 

The mainstream transaction of zinc ingots in Tianjin market was 19060-20420 yuan / ton, and that of ordinary brands was 1906019180 / ton. The rising water of 1911 contract was about 50-120 yuan / ton, and the rising water of Tianjin market was slightly narrowed from 50 yuan / ton to 40 yuan / ton. Refinery shipments are normal today. In the market, the circulation of goods tends to be loose. The quotation of high-priced brand source is concentrated around 50-120 yuan / ton for 11 contract, and the quotation for ordinary brand source is about 50-80 yuan / ton for 11-liter water. Today, the disk obviously pulled up, the market shipment desire is strong and the willingness to receive goods is weak, the holder has lowered the rising water one after another, but downstream in the disk pull up the situation to buy Xing sharply reduced, take goods extremely cautious. Overall, there were few deals today, significantly weaker than last Friday. Zi Zijin, Hongye, Bailing, Chi Hong, Xikuang, etc., were traded in the vicinity of 19060-19180 yuan / ton, while Li Zijin, Chi Hong and Hongye were traded in 19010-19130 yuan / ton.

 

 

 

 

Tin: after the opening of US $16815 / ton today, the Asian session to the opening of the European market is generally maintained in the horizontal arrangement near the opening price. As of 17: 00, the latest price of Lunxi is US $16815 / ton, showing a cross star line. The top is under pressure on the 10-day moving average, and the bottom is supported by the 5-and 40-day moving average. The support below Lunxi is expected to be near the 20-day moving average of $16600 / ton. For tonight, we can take a look at the monthly retail inventory rate (%) in the United States in September.

 

Shanghai tin 2001 contract on Friday night after the opening of 138260 yuan / ton, affected by a small number of long positions, the overall shock upward trend, the highest hit 138730 yuan / ton after a small decline. After the opening of 138610 yuan / ton in early trading today, Shanghai tin rose again, rising to a daily high of 139680 yuan / ton, and fell back quickly at the end of the day, finally closing at 139020 yuan / ton, up 820 yuan / ton, up 0.59%. The trading volume was 25090 hands, and the position was 41174 hands, an increase of 874 hands. Today, Shanghai tin by the influence of long forces showed a rising trend, but it is still in the horizontal finishing range, short-term attention to Shanghai tin can effectively break through the resistance barrier near 140000 yuan / ton and stabilize.

 

In the spot market, the mainstream transaction price today is 137000-139700 yuan / ton. Due to the rise of tin in Shanghai, fixed prices and low prices are more favored by the market. Some traders in Shanghai bought tin ingots from small smelters and other traders on a bargain basis. Downstream enterprises are still mainly purchasing on demand today, and the overall purchase volume is small. Shanghai tin spot market today the overall transaction atmosphere is general. In terms of discount, the Shanghai Tin main Force 2001 contract next month set Yunxi Shengshui 600-800 yuan / ton, ordinary cloud word discount 300500 yuan / ton, small brand discount 700-1000 yuan / ton.

 

 

 

 

Nickel: Lunni opened at $16830 a tonne today. After opening, Lunni fell all the way down to as low as $16545 a tonne before recovering slightly, with a centre of gravity swinging around $16000 a tonne. In the afternoon, Lunni rose from a first-line shock of $16000 / tonne, fluctuating slightly near the daily moving average at $16715 / tonne as of 17: 00, down $135a tonne, or 0.8 per cent, from the previous day's settlement price. Trading volume decreased by 3233 hands to 1689 hands, with a position of 281000 hands. Lunni temporarily closed in the lower shadow line small negative column, the shadow line down 10 days moving average, the upper 60-day moving average 16800 US dollars / ton first line faces resistance, pay attention to the support of the 5-day moving average to Lunni tonight.

 

Shanghai nickel opened at 133610 yuan / ton today, after the opening, the long position reduced, Shanghai nickel shock all the way down, down 131230 yuan / ton, then, slightly revised, the center of gravity around 132000 yuan / ton narrow fluctuations, finally closed at 132080 yuan / ton, compared with the settlement price of 1110 yuan / ton, down 0.83%, trading volume increased by 120000 hands to 957000 hands, position volume decreased by 14000 hands to 280000 hands. Shanghai nickel closed in the small negative column, the top facing 20 EMA resistance, below there is no other moving average support, this night to pay attention to Shanghai nickel can stabilize 132000 yuan / ton level.

 

Spot market, today Russia nickel than Shanghai nickel 1911 discount 1911 to discount 300, Jinchuan nickel than Shanghai nickel 1911 contract generally discount 1911 to 1911 yuan / ton, discount continues to expand compared with last week. First, due to the Shanghai Nickel 1911 and Shanghai Nickel 1912 contract upside down about 3600 yuan / ton, the holders have postponed the contract backward, want to try to ship as far as possible in the contract 1911, second, although the transaction is relatively weak, the market demand is less. In the morning, Shanghai nickel continued to rise to 137000 yesterday after falling, to the daily average line near 136300 after a brief consolidation, the market is mostly on the sidelines, fewer buyers into the market. Subsequently, Shanghai nickel continued to callback, to 135500 after the rebound, downstream is still no willingness to buy, there is no improvement in the transaction. Jinchuan's ex-factory price is 135500 yuan / ton, 700 yuan / ton lower than last Friday. In the afternoon nickel price pressure daily moving average operation, the spot transaction has not improved, the transaction is general all day.

 

 

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