SMM basic Metals spot Trading Weekly Review (2019.10.21-2019.10.25)

SMM, 25 Oct:

Us economic data have repeatedly shown weakness this week, the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates, but Brexit has been rejected again, the dollar has rebounded, the strength of basic metals has been seriously divided, and the fundamentals of various items have more dominant their own performance. SMMI rose 0.47 per cent in the week. Nickel and copper again showed a strong performance, Norilsk Nickel and China Metallurgical Ruimu incident led to a low return to Lunni, Shanghai nickel is a sharp rebound, SMMI.Ni rose 3.85 per cent. The copper strike in Chile caused the low price of copper to rise to 5900 US dollars / ton, the reduction of domestic short positions pushed up 47500 yuan / ton of copper in Shanghai, the high copper price consumption was suppressed by the spot rise and fall, and SMMI.Cu rose 1.04% per week. Other metals have varying degrees of decline, led by lead, domestic and foreign trading lead Shanghai lead under pressure continues to decline, the primary and regeneration price difference between 500-600 yuan / ton, SMMI.Pb weekly decline of 2.2%. Shanghai tin range shock, but the center of gravity higher than last week down, the upper rebound blocked, below the support brought by Yunxi maintenance, spot trading wait-and-see, SMMI.Sn weekly decline of 0.9%. Zinc is also strong and weak inside, Lun zinc up to $2500 / ton, Shanghai zinc close to ten thousand nine was short selling pressure, long single end spot rise all the way down, SMMI.Zn week down 0.53%. Aluminum in the vicinity of Wan4 short market pressure is obvious, this week's high fell back in the 13800 yuan shock, the continuous decline in inventory made the spot rising water higher, recovered some of the decline, obvious performance of weak and strong characteristics, SMMI.Al weekly decline of 0.07%. At the Fed interest rate meeting next week, the weakness of the global economy has strengthened expectations of interest rate cuts, and at the end of the month, tax escalation has halted the issuance of bills that month, affecting the willingness of some spot transactions, coupled with the holding of the LME annual meeting, market trading is likely to be light, but the fundamental problems of each category are the main guiding factors to boost the strength of their metals.

Copper: this week's copper center of gravity has moved up from last week, has now exceeded the 20-day moving average pressure level. The disk was greatly affected by Brexit sentiment this week. At the beginning of the week, British Prime Minister Johnson received enough support to heat up optimism about Brexit. The pound rose sharply above the 1.3 mark, the dollar was sliding under pressure, and the Chilean copper mine strike was constantly disturbed. Large copper mines, such as Escondida and chuquicamata, joined the strike brigade one after another, and tightening expectations on the supply side supported copper prices. Double positive Xia Lun copper along the 5-day moving average climbed, rising 5905 US dollars / ton, the center of gravity to maintain a stable around 5850 US dollars / ton; This week, Lun copper mainly showed a long increase in positions, with a position increase of 7436 hands to 288000 hands.

This week, the center of gravity of Shanghai copper has moved up from last week. At the beginning of the week, Shanghai copper rose back to the level of 47000 yuan, re-standing above the 20-day moving average. Lun copper rose to boost Shanghai copper to sit on 47000 yuan / ton and then go straight to 47500 yuan / ton, the highest level of 47550 yuan / ton in the week. At present, Shanghai copper has stood above all the moving averages. MACD also changed from green column to red column, the opening of KDJ was expanded, and the technical index was re-increased. The weekly position of the main force decreased by more than 12000 hands, the position of the Shanghai Copper Index decreased by 30, 000 hands to 541000 hands, and the trading volume increased by 131000 hands to 1.329 million hands.

On the spot side, spot quotations were downgraded all the way this week, and the market was flat. At the beginning of this week, due to entering the long single delivery cycle, and superimposed this week's tax bill system upgrade, resulting in enterprises need to issue tickets in advance, market demand driven cardholders to quote high, market quotation rose 80-110 yuan / ton. But then, as a result of the sharp rise in disk prices, the market fear of heightened sentiment, traders speculative cautious, resulting in a significant decline in demand. In addition, after the National Day, the source of imported goods has arrived one after another, resulting in a rich supply of goods in the hands of the holder. With the advent of the tax ticket upgrade system, next month's ticket has gradually entered the market and accounts for an increase in the proportion of the day. There is a price difference of 20-30 yuan / ton between the quotation and the current monthly ticket, so that the center of gravity of the whole quotation has been dragged down. On Friday, under the background of the full monthly ticket, the source of discount goods appeared, the offer is 20-liter water 10 yuan / ton.

Aluminum: this week Lun aluminum shock sinking, the top moving average resistance. Chou Chu Mei refers to a low near 97.144, Lun aluminum wide shock is still not driven by macro sentiment, giving back all the gains on Friday, and in the next few days continue to test down, the lowest point of the week 1715.5 US dollars / ton. From the disk, Lun aluminum has been horizontal plate for more than two weeks, has always been under pressure 20 EMA is difficult to break up, as of 16:50 on Friday at 1721.5 US dollars / ton, week K line closed in the small negative line, trading volume reduced by 16636 hands to 30633 hands, position increased by 2640 hands to 747000 hands, the center of gravity is below all EMA. From the market atmosphere, the United States in September durable goods orders data, new housing start data and other poor performance, but affected by the weakening of the euro and sterling, the dollar index is still slightly upward, pressure on the outer plate metal, Lun aluminum in its own weak posture under pressure is difficult to boost, throughout the week to maintain a weak range shock, is expected to continue to run below $1750 / ton next week. Focus on the Brexit process next week and the third quarter of the United States GDP, ADP employment changes and other macro data.

This week the Shanghai aluminum main company 1912 contract since the beginning of the week since the start of the high shock fell back, and then a few days of horizontal performance to maintain the interval shock. Short positions increased sharply after the opening of the morning at the beginning of the week, and the main company contract fell all the way down from 13880 yuan / ton midweek high point, and fell to 13760 yuan / ton midweek low point until the end of the day. Although aluminum prices rebounded slightly in the following days to recover some of the decline, they did not show a strong upward posture after recording three small positive lines to give up some of the gains again on Friday. This week, the K line closed at 13805 yuan / tonn.In the first few days of the week, although aluminum prices rebounded slightly to recover some of the decline, they did not show a strong upward posture after recording three small positive lines until Friday. This week, the K line closed at 13805 yuan / ton. Trading volume increased by 25566 hands to 482000 hands, position increased by 2164 hands to 235000 hands, top pressure 5-day moving average, heavy resistance above, weekly MACD green line elongated. From the trajectory of Shanghai aluminum this week, it can be seen that the aluminum price is difficult to return, the bulls' confidence is not strong, and it is difficult to support the rise of the aluminum price. The main company gradually tries to test the space below. However, in the short term, the continuous decline in inventory and the strengthening of the spot make it difficult for the bears to make up their minds to exert pressure on a large scale. As a result, they fluctuate up and down at the 13800 yuan / ton level and wait and see the opportunity. Because the supply and demand side is more obvious in the fourth quarter, it is expected to continue to test the level next week. There is a certain probability that it will continue to sink, focusing on inventory data and market consumption next week.

The overall spot transactions in East China this week were generally, the mainstream contributors to market trading activity were traders, and the downstream performance was mediocre. The transaction prices in Shanghai and Wuxi are between 13920-14010 yuan / ton, 70-110 yuan / ton, 13930-14010 yuan / ton in Hangzhou and 13930-14010 yuan / ton in Hangzhou. The average weekly price in East China is up nearly 60 yuan / ton compared with last week. The spot rose higher this week, near 70 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, near the weekend has risen to 100 yuan / ton, the spot is stronger than futures, the middleman is very willing to receive the goods, but the holder is more willing to sell, the shipment is not much, the two sides show a stalemate, the market presents a situation of less receiving and more, large customers receive goods normally every day, but the daily planned purchase volume is not full. Downstream transaction this week in general, the beginning of the week is slightly better, the other few days fear high obviously, the overall high water is not very recognized, the main goods on demand every day. Rising more than 100 this week, the main reason is that the spot market is relatively tight under the background of falling inventories, and the upgrading of the VAT system this week affected the issuance of invoices that month, to a certain extent, affecting spot transactions, leading to some spot trading. It is expected that the rising water will not fall sharply in the short term, and the follow-up needs to continue to pay attention to the supply and demand of the market.

Lead: Lun lead slowly rose along the five-day line this week and remained strong. At the beginning of the week, Lun lead came back under pressure after hitting a high of US $2200, reported a long film line, and the market buying sentiment began to fall into divergences. Then, in a few days, as LME lead 0-3 liters of water kept back, 's overseas spot tight, coupled with a slight recovery in overseas macro sentiment, the overall performance of non-ferrous metals was better, Lun lead probing low rebounded, and successfully broke through the pressure of US $2200, reaching US $2228 / ton, and then the high kinetic energy weakened. Lun lead continued to fluctuate, rising 2.65 per cent to $2231 a tonne as of 16: 03 on Friday. Next week's overseas macro data can pay attention to: the monthly rate of the index of contract sales of existing homes in the United States in September; the economic sentiment index of the euro zone in October; the initial real GDP annualized quarterly rate in the United States in the third quarter; the rate of interest rate determined by the Federal Reserve from the United States to October 30 (upper limit); the monthly rate of personal expenditure in the United States in September; the unemployment rate in the United States in October; the number of non-farm payrolls in the United According to the observation of the CME Federal Reserve, the probability of the United States cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in October is 93%. Therefore, next week, we will focus on whether the Federal Reserve can cut interest rates as scheduled and Powell's views on the current and future US economy at the meeting. However, because the recent trend of the US index has fulfilled the Fed's interest rate cut ahead of schedule, we think that the US index has limited room to fall again after the interest rate cut. Some domestic holders are already considering exports, if there is a high profit export at home, the shortage of overseas supply will ease, there is no room to continue to do internal and external business, so for Lun lead to be cautiously bullish. Expected Zhou Lun lead operating range or in 2160-2260 US dollars / ton.

This week Shanghai lead under pressure on the market fundamentals expected pessimistic, the trend showed a clear downward trend. At the beginning of the week, due to the strength of Lun lead, the Shanghai lead market was high at the beginning of the day, ensuring that the center of gravity of Shanghai lead did not move down, basically in the first line of consolidation of 16950 yuan. In the next few days, as the market found the operation law of Shanghai lead, the long and short speculators took advantage of the trend to enter the market, and the mainstream operation direction was controlled in the hands of short sellers. Therefore, Shanghai lead broke the moving average to support the downlink, the low level once reached 16600 yuan / ton, and the latter integer level was supported, and Shanghai lead stopped falling. Recovered some of the decline, finally reported at 16750 yuan / ton, a weekly decline of 1.79%; Enter next week, domestic will publish October manufacturing index, because lead price and macro sensitivity is not high, next week lead price depends more on its own fundamentals, focus on two factors inventory and regenerated primary price difference, stop falling signal is price spread narrowed to 200-300 yuan / ton, and social inventory increase below expectations; technical graphics, the main contract index has broken the platform down, stack fundamentals are weak, next week lead price is not optimistic. It is expected that the running range of lead in Shanghai next week may be in the range of 16500-16850 yuan / ton.

In the spot market, the mainstream trading range of spot lead this week is 16625-16875 yuan / ton. Lead prices fluctuated downward this week, the lower reaches of the week generally look weak prices, procurement is more depressed, the next few days with the price downward, bulk market trading slightly warmed up, but the overall transaction is bleak; The original lead and trade market, the shipping enthusiasm is high, but the consumption is weak, as of Friday, the refinery bulk single mainstream quotation to the SMM1# lead average price discount 150-50 yuan / ton, the trade market domestic lead ordinary brand mainstream quotation to the 1911 contract discount 50-20 yuan / ton; Recycled lead, due to low consumption, recycled refineries to maintain deep water shipments, as of Friday, recycled lead mainstream quotation on the average price of SMM1# lead discount 600400 yuan / ton.

Zinc: the price of zinc in Lunlun has maintained an upward trend this week. At the beginning of Zhou Dynasty, zinc was pressurized on Brin Road, down from US $2450 / ton, the center of gravity was running around the first line of US $2435 / ton, and then the support of the moving average line appeared on the 5th. Lun Zinc returned to the first line of US $2470 / ton and operated in a narrow range, with an operating range of about US $5 / ton. Under the favorable mood again, the Sino-US trade negotiation process has once again passed on a favorable mood. The center of gravity of Lun Zinc rose again to 2480 US dollars / ton, but the US index dragged down 2446 US dollars / ton, just as LME zinc stocks fell below 60, 000 tons, and low inventory support Lun Zinc returned to around 2500 US dollars / tonne. However, the upper integer gate suppressed more strongly, Lun Zinc under pressure operation, as of Friday, Lun Zinc closed at 2503 US dollars / ton, up 2.02 per cent during the week.

This week, the trend of Shanghai zinc was reduced under pressure. At the beginning of the week, the 1912 contract of Shanghai zinc main force was high and low, and went down to 18900 yuan / ton. Shanghai zinc found support in the 5-day moving average, and the center of gravity rose to 18940 yuan / ton. however, under the strong daily moving average suppression, Shanghai zinc fell back to 18800 yuan / ton and was steadily uplink around 18800 yuan / ton. it was subsequently boosted by the outer plate, and the Shanghai zinc straight line pulled up 19065 yuan / ton. However, Shanghai zinc rose back to the Wanjiu pass to attract bears to enter the market sharply, empty into more flat, Shanghai zinc quickly fell back to give up the increase, around 18790 yuan / ton finishing operation, near the weekend, the Shanghai zinc operation center of gravity rose to 18850 yuan / ton first-line range finishing operation, near Friday Shanghai zinc by the outer plate vibration pull up 18890 yuan / ton, but the short came into Shanghai zinc drag down 18655 yuan / ton. As of Friday, Shanghai Zinc 1912 contract was reported at 18675 yuan / ton, down 0.93% per week, and its position increased by 14250 hands to 214000 hands.

The price of domestic zinc ingots to 1911 liters of water in the Shanghai market this week fell from 110-120 yuan per ton on Friday to 90 yuan per ton on Friday. The quotation in Shuangyan market is basically the same as that of No. 0. AZ and SMC quoted 80-90 yuan per ton in November. Harbin Zinc quoted 40-50 yuan per ton in November. Due to the problem of tax upgrading and the expiration of the second batch of long orders, the price in the first half of the spot market was relatively strong. The price of the monthly ticket was once quoted to 1911 liters / ton, but as the tax upgrade day approached, the difference between the monthly ticket and the next monthly ticket gradually narrowed. By the last day of the delivery of the long bill on Friday, the market buying was weak and the spot price was as low as 90 yuan / ton. This week, the market is still circulating a small number of imported brands of first-hand supply, from the market feedback, the first-hand supply is mainly part of the long order transferred to domestic trade sales. Downstream demand, zinc prices this week operating center of gravity slightly downward, downstream buying is still good, Guangdong, Zhejiang inventory has declined to a certain extent. Next week, a new batch of long single cycle begins, the market transaction may have some improvement, the market spot can circulate the supply is more limited, overall, SMM believes that rising water is more difficult to have a lot of room to fall.

This week, Guangdong Zinc discounted 10-20 yuan / ton on the Shanghai zinc 1912 contract, and the Guangdong stock market narrowed from 110 yuan / ton to 90 yuan / ton on Friday. This week, the Guangdong market smelter shipments are normal, the market supply circulation is more abundant. Due to the settlement of bills and other reasons, this week traders quote mainly bills of the same month, the range of fluctuations within the quotation week is not large, the bills of the month basically close to the discount of 10 yuan / ton to the 12 contract, and the bill of the next month basically close to the discount of 20 yuan / ton to the 12 contract. Following the expansion of the contract price difference between the current month and the next month, from-20 yuan / ton to-30 yuan / ton, traders focused on the discount of 30 yuan / ton to the 12 contract next month, and the spot discount did not change much during the week, basically maintaining near the flat level of the contract for the current month. This week, as the increase in downstream orders slightly boosted rigid demand purchases, downstream purchases remained basically stable this week. Due to bill reasons between traders, the demand for bills in the month is more, the last batch of long orders due in the superposition month, the trading atmosphere has warmed up. Overall, spot transactions in the Guangdong market this week were slightly better than last week, with traders contributing mainly to trading.

This week, Tianjin's current zinc contract for Shanghai zinc 1911 rose 60-180 yuan / ton, and the Tianjin stock market expanded from 30 yuan / ton to 50 yuan / ton compared with Shanghai stock market on Friday. The refinery shipped normally during the week, and the circulation of the market was slightly relaxed. This week disk downward, the shippers are willing to lower the rising water, from the beginning of the week to 11 contract water 80-180 yuan / ton gradually loosened to Friday 11 contract up 60-120 yuan / ton. This week, Monday to Thursday, the disk under the Wanjiu pass steadily down, rising water is also down, but downstream due to environmental restrictions, superimposed haze weather led to high-speed once blocked, the general willingness to buy is low, the market transaction atmosphere is weak; On Friday, although environmental protection and production restrictions still exist, but with the sinking of the center of gravity of the disk is obvious, the holder rising water is also slightly down, superimposed on the weekend downstream stock demand, the market trading is better. Overall, the overall trading situation in the downstream market this week was slightly weaker than last week.

Tin: this week, Lunxi generally showed an interval concussion trend. Affected by the dollar index, the rise in the price of US crude oil and the maintenance of consolidation in Shanghai, Lunxi remained in the range of 16500-17000 US dollars / ton during the week. As of 15: 00 on Friday, Lunxi's latest price was $16780 a tonne, down $180, or 1.06%, for the week. 1129 hands were traded, 17148 hands were held, down 350 hands. Zhou Neilun Xi is generally a cross star line, and the lower shadow line is supported by the 5-10 EMA. In terms of indicators, the fast and slow line of the daily line level MACD index is still above the zero axis, the KDJ index shows a downward trend, the K line rises back up from the early stage to the middle rail of the Bolin belt, and the K line of the daily line level is still between the upper rail and the middle rail of the Bolin belt. At the weekly level, the MACD index has formed a golden fork below the zero axis, the KDJ index shows an upward trend, and the K line is located between the lower rail of the Brin channel and the middle rail and is still on the way to the middle rail.

Shanghai tin this week by the long empty force and tin fundamentals, the overall maintenance of 137000-140000 yuan / ton shock finishing. Within the week, in addition to being intertwined by the long and short forces of funds, it was also affected by the shortage of tin resources in the spot market, the start of equipment maintenance by Yunnan Tin Industry Co., Ltd., reduced production and weak downstream demand, showing a situation of weakness in the uplink and hindrance in the downstream. In the early period, the long forces that promoted the rise of tin in Shanghai decreased significantly during the week, with weekly positions falling by 2666 hands. As of Friday, the closing price of tin in Shanghai was 138200 yuan / ton, down 2330 yuan / ton, or 1.66%, with a turnover of 136000 hands and a position of 40300 hands, down 2666 hands. The level of the weekly line shows a small negative line, and the lower shadow line goes near the 20-day moving average and is supported by the 5-day moving average. In terms of indicators, the MACD index of the daily line level has the possibility of forming a dead fork in the bond above the zero axis, and the KDJ index shows a downward trend. The K line is located near the middle rail of the Brin channel, and the lower part is supported by the middle rail of the Brin belt. Weekly level, MACD index below the zero axis of the early formation of the golden fork after the fast and slow line showed an upward trend, the KDJ index also showed a slow upward shape, the K line is located in the Brin channel below the middle rail, above by the Brin belt middle rail suppression.

Shanghai tin plate and Shanghai tin spot prices remained stable this week, with the exception of a drop of 1500 yuan / ton on Monday compared with Friday's price, SMM No. 1 tin fluctuated by only 250 yuan / ton during the week, and Shanghai tin spot price held steady at 137000-139500 yuan / ton on Friday. Smelter prices remain strong within the week, most manufacturers are not very ideal, a small number of smelters in Jiangxi and other regions can do business. Downstream demand within the week downstream enterprises wait-and-see mood is stronger, buying interest is relatively weak. However, due to downstream demand, the spot price did not rise significantly when the Shanghai tin market rose during the week. Then, with the Shanghai period tin following the spot price shows signs of upward weakness, downstream enterprises wait-and-see mood intensified. In terms of traders in Shanghai, due to the actual existence of some low-priced goods in the spot market during the week, in addition to being favored by a small number of downstream enterprises, some traders have also been cautious in purchasing on a bargain basis. The overall transaction atmosphere in the Shanghai-tin spot market was generally weak during the week. In terms of water discount, due to no major fluctuations in the tin market in Shanghai, it remained stable as a whole. On Friday, the monthly ticket set for the Shanghai tin 2001 contract was 800-1000 yuan / ton, ordinary cloud word discount was 100-300 yuan / ton, and small-brand discount was 500-600 yuan / ton.

Nickel: at the beginning of the week, Lunni continued to close below the 5-day moving average, falling to $16000 a tonne to be supported. When most of the market continued to be bearish on the future, the, Norilsk Nickel and China Metallurgical Ruimu events led to some fear of short positions and reduced their positions one after another. On Tuesday, Lunni rose sharply from the front line of US $16000 / ton, rising nearly 3% a day, opening a low recovery trend. On the next two days, the bulls continued to make continuous efforts to close in the sun, showing a stepped rise. On Thursday, Lunni rose to a high of US $16970 / ton this week, and the K column stood completely above the 5-day moving average. Break through the 10 / 60 day moving average resistance. On Friday, Lunni as a whole fluctuated slightly around the 60-day moving average of $16800 per tonne. As of 15: 30, it was reported at $16805 per tonne, with weekly trading volume reduced by 93000 hands to 340000 hands, while positions increased by more than 2, 000 hands to 281000 hands.

In the first two days of the week, Shanghai nickel continued its downward trend last week, falling to 125000 yuan / ton. On Wednesday, it rebounded and pulled upward in the first line of 125000 yuan / ton. For the second day in a row, it closed at the central column, up 7390 yuan / ton, up nearly 6%, to 134000 yuan / ton on the 20th moving average, under pressure concussion, and closed at 133340 yuan / ton on Friday around the 133200 yuan / ton daily average. the first two days of the week, Shanghai nickel continued its downward trend last week, falling to 125000 yuan / ton. On Wednesday, it rebounded and pulled upward for two consecutive days. It rose nearly 6% to the 20 moving average line of 134000 yuan / ton. Shanghai nickel rose 3.15 per cent this week, up 4050 yuan / tonne, with weekly trading volume down 1.544 million to 5.088 million and positions down 68000 to 294000. Shanghai nickel close to 135000 yuan / ton after the rebound rate slowed down, it is expected that in the short term under the influence of LME inventory and industry chain accident, nickel price will remain on the strong side.

In the spot market, the Russian nickel contract for Shanghai Nickel 1911 rose about 100 yuan / ton this week, down 150 yuan / ton from last week, and the lowest discount was 300 yuan / ton as of Friday. Jinchuan nickel to Shanghai nickel rose 300 yuan / ton in 1911 weeks, 200 yuan / ton less than last week. Specific transactions: the price difference between Wuxi nickel and Shanghai nickel was large this week, reaching around 10,000 on Monday, stimulating part of the lower reaches of pure nickel to purchase nickel beans in Wuxi plate, and the transaction of nickel beans in Wuxi plate was improved, but the spot transaction of Shanghai nickel was obviously suppressed. traders have reported that trading is very weak, Wuxi nickel and Shanghai nickel have been maintaining a large price difference this week. Nickel price rebounded sharply in the second half of the week, Wuxi nickel bean transaction is not as active as the first half of the week, and Shanghai nickel spot continues to be weak, Jinchuan company in the nickel price rebound after the active shipment, the consignee can receive the goods, but because the downstream demand is bleak, the basic discount shipment. Russia Nickel is expected to continue to Shanghai Nickel 1911 contract discount to flat water next week, Jinchuan Shanghai Nickel 1911 contract discount 200-100 yuan / ton.

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