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SMM Evening Comments (Oct 25)
Oct 25,2019 18:39CST
price review forecast
SHFE nonferrous metals, except for aluminium and zinc, closed higher on Friday

SHANGHAI, Oct 25 (SMM) – SHFE nonferrous metals, except for aluminium and zinc, closed higher on Friday. Nickel led the increases with a 1.1% gain, lead advanced 0.5%, tin and copper rose 0.2%.

The ferrous complex, except for stainless steel, drifted higher. Iron ore was the best performer with a gain of 2.1%. Coke and rebar climbed 1.2%, hot-rolled coil increased by 0.8%, and coking coal was up 0.3%.

Copper: The most active SHFE 1912 contract recovered from earlier losses during the daytime session, as the US dollar weakened in the afternoon as weak US economic data spurred expectations for another interest rate cut by the Fed later this month. SHFE copper closed 0.17% higher at 47,390 yuan/mt, after hitting a new five-week high of 47,570 yuan/mt overnight. With a green MACD bar, whether SHFE copper could remain above 47,300 yuan/mt will come under scrutiny tonight.  

Aluminium: The most traded SHFE 1912 contract dropped to an intraday low of 13,775 yuan/mt during the day, before it recouped some losses to end a tad weaker at 13,805 yuan/mt. It is expected to remain rangebound tonight, supported by falling inventories but weighed by prospects for weaker consumption in the long term.

Zinc: The most active SHFE 1912 contract dropped to a two-week low of 18,655 yuan/mt, as shorts loaded up positions after SMM data showed that zinc social inventories inched up this week. It closed the trading day 0.95% lower at 18,675 yuan/mt. A stronger LME zinc and recent positive macro developments will limit downside in SHFE zinc, which is expected to move rangebound in the short term. The contract is likely to test support at the lower Bollinger band tonight.

Nickel: The most traded SHFE 1912 contract hovered in a tight range around the daily moving average at 133,200 yuan/mt during the daytime session, holding onto overnight gains to close 1.13% higher at 133,340 yuan/mt. Three consecutive days of gains have sent SHFE nickel above several moving averages, and the contract now faces a resistance area around the 20-day moving average and the 134,000 yuan/mt handle.

Lead: The most active SHFE 1912 contract rallied from an intraday low of 16,605 yuan/mt to an intraday high of 16,785 yuan/mt during the day session, pointing to strong support at 16,600 yuan/mt. It ended the day 0.54% higher at 16,750 yuan/mt, clawing back some losses from earlier this week. SHFE lead is expected to extend its rally tonight, tracking gains in its LME counterpart, but upside will be limited by resistance at moving averages.

Tin: The most traded SHFE 2001 contract recovered from initial losses during the daytime session to end up 0.18% at 138,200 yuan/mt. SHFE tin is expected to continue its rangebound pattern in the short term, with support at 137,000 yuan/mt and resistance at 140,000 yuan/mt.

Evening comments

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