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Comment on the spot Exchange Day of SMM basic Metals on October 24
Oct 24,2019 20:25CST
Comment on the spot Exchange Day of SMM basic Metals on October 24
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.


Today, Yapanlun copper opened at $5884.5 / tonne. Yesterday, as crude oil stocks unexpectedly plummeted, crude oil rebounded to support copper prices. In addition, the recent strike at Chilean copper mines added another bit of tension to the market supply. Copper prices were basically maintained at a narrow range around 5880 US dollars / ton in the morning. Then into the European market, lower than $5865.5 / ton, and then announced that the French manufacturing PMI value higher than expected, the long positioned positive, good copper prices, copper prices quickly moved up to around $5895 / ton, in the $5900 / ton position repeatedly probed. As of 17: 00, Lun Copper closed at $5894 / ton, up 0.35%. The dollar index was at 97.482, and US crude oil was at $55.46 a barrel. In the evening, the monthly rate of durable goods orders in the United States in September is expected to be-0.8%, the initial PMI forecast for the US Markit manufacturing industry in October is 50.9 lower than the previous value, and the initial PMI forecast for the Markit service industry in October is slightly higher than the previous value. The dollar is still at risk of weakening tonight's data, which has helped copper prices as a result of recent weakness in US manufacturing data, raising concerns that the Fed will cut interest rates again. At present, the technical surface of Lun copper shows strong support, and the MACD index red energy column is elongated. Waiting for the guidance of the dollar and crude oil at night, test whether Lun copper can break through the $5900 / ton level.

Today, the Shanghai copper main contract 1912 opened in the morning at 47400 yuan / ton, after the opening shock downward, the center of gravity remained stable around 47380 yuan / ton, the center of gravity continued to decline slightly 20 yuan to 47360 yuan / ton in the second quarter of the trading session, the afternoon surface continued the downward trend of the center of gravity to 47320 yuan / ton, the end of the day closed at 47360 yuan / ton, up 320 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.68%. Shanghai copper main contract 1912 position increased by 2382 hands to 227000 hands, trading volume increased by 96000 hands to 205000 hands. Shanghai Copper 2001 and 2002 contract positions increased by 6460 hands to 171000 hands. Shanghai copper index positions increased by 2410 hands to 543000 hands, trading volume increased by 139000 hands to 355000 hands. The main reason for today's slight decline is still the news of the strike at the end of the overnight crude oil inventory reduction and superposition has been temporarily digested by the market, coupled with the current macro still no signs of improvement, copper prices stand high and weak, the center of gravity has moved down slightly. At present, Shanghai copper closing Yangzhu, has stood firmly above the EMA. There is a flood of European economic data released today that will guide copper prices. In the evening, test whether Shanghai copper can continue to stand at the level of 47300 yuan / ton.

Today, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot contract for the current month of 50 yuan / ton, Pingshui copper transaction price of 47300 yuan / ton ~ 47350 yuan / ton, Shengshui copper transaction price of 47330 yuan / ton ~ 47380 yuan / ton. Overnight crude oil soared, superimposed a number of Chilean copper mines joined the strike activities, Shanghai copper was led by two positive signals to 47300 yuan / ton, an increase of more than 300 yuan / ton. Copper prices are high to curb market buying sentiment, and today is the last monthly ticket trading day before the tax ticket upgrade, this month's long order has also basically ended, morning market holders quoted 30-60 yuan / ton. However, due to no response, the twinkling of an eye decreased to a good copper rising water of about 40 yuan / ton, flat water copper rising water of 10 ~ 20 yuan / ton, the transaction has improved. In the second quarter of the trading period, eager to cash holders to lower the price again, flat copper low to flat water near, good copper was forced to rise to 30 yuan / ton to slow down, wet copper followed by the downward offer of 20 yuan / ton ~ flat water. Before the upgrading of tax tickets, most of the monthly tickets in the market today were mainly traded on monthly tickets, and individual monthly tickets still maintained a price difference of nearly 30 yuan / ton with next month's tickets. Copper prices rose, curbing downstream pick-up, traders ample inventory, resulting in the overall market demand performance is light. In the afternoon, due to the continued high price, the market willingness to accept goods is low, so in the afternoon the market transaction is light, the holder continues to lower the quotation under the pressure of high inventory. In the afternoon, Pingshui copper reported flat water-water 10 yuan / ton, good copper reported water 20-water 30 yuan / ton, transaction price in the range of 47250 yuan / ton-47320 yuan / ton.


Aluminum: the Shanghai aluminum main company 1912 contract opened at 13815 yuan / ton in the morning, the first trading stage remained at 13835 yuan / ton first line hovering, the second trading stage part of the long reduced positions left the market, aluminum prices fell back, fell all the moving average hit 13800 yuan / ton intraday low point, because the gate still has a certain support level, tail low rebounded, closed at 13825 yuan / ton, up 40 yuan / ton, up 0.29%, trading volume increased 41996 hands to 102000 hands, the end of the day low level, closed at 13825 yuan / ton, up 40 yuan / ton, up 0.29%, trading volume increased 41996 hands to 102000 hands. Position reduced by 858 hands to 237000 hands, closed in the small yang line, recorded three Lianyang, daily MACD green line shortened. Shanghai aluminum within the day to maintain range volatility, in the inventory continued to decline, strong spot background, low short confidence is insufficient, but due to the above pressure on 20-40-60 daily average, it is expected to maintain a weak range shock in the short term, continue to pay attention to long short market changes and market trading atmosphere changes in the evening.

Lun aluminum opened at US $1729.5 / ton in the morning and maintained wide fluctuations in the range during the day. The price difference between high and low levels in the sub-market was less than US $7 / ton, and the high level stopped at US $1730 / ton. As of 17:20, Lun aluminum closed at US $1726 / ton, down $0.50 / ton, down 0.03%, trading volume decreased by 6434 hands to 1412 hands, position increased by 306 hands to 746000 hands, closed in the small negative line. The center of gravity is above the 5 / 10 EMA, and the daily KDJ three-line polymerization is facing up. Geneva aluminum trend is relatively stable, observe the evening macro mood changes and the United States in September durable goods order rate and new home sales rate and other macro data on the impact of the market.

Aluminum in the current month before noon to maintain a narrow range of shocks. The spot price in Shanghai is between 1398014000 yuan / ton, and the spot price in Wuxi market is 1399014010 yuan / ton. The spot price in East China is 50 yuan / ton higher than that of yesterday. The difference between the spot price of next month and that month is less than 20 yuan / ton. The spot price of individual warehouses is 20 yuan / ton lower than the main current price. The spot price in Hangzhou is between 1399014010 yuan / ton. The situation today is similar to that of yesterday. Due to the upgrading of the VAT system tomorrow, the related affairs related to the issuance of tickets have stopped, and the number of ticket goods issued by the holders in the market has decreased for the current month. Most of them are next month's tickets. Middlemen are still actively receiving the goods, but on the whole, the transactions between buyers and sellers are still deadlocked. Downstream on-demand goods, a small amount of stock, the overall performance is general. The overall transaction in East China was flat today. Afternoon aluminum decline, the market transaction atmosphere is light, the holder quotation is mostly relative to the next monthly ticket quotation, a small number of monthly ticket quotation in the vicinity of 13970 yuan / ton, the disk rose 90 yuan / ton, the actual few transactions.


Within the day, Lun lead opened at $2219 / ton, Asia period, Lun lead basically around the daily average, into Europe, the long and short sides appeared a short game, resulting in wide fluctuations, as of 17: 14, Lun lead temporarily closed at $2221.5 / ton, up $4.50 / ton, up 0.2%, positions increased by 332 hands to 129536 hands. Lun lead newspaper closed down the shadow small positive line, the 5-day moving average has a strong support, and continues to rise along the moving average, coupled with the LME 0-3 contract to maintain the Back structure, inventory is also in a low position, so lun lead is expected to continue to brush a new high at night.

Within days, the Shanghai lead 1912 contract opened at 16700 yuan / ton. Shanghai lead basically fluctuated along the daily moving average throughout the day, and the amplitude up and down was about 50 yuan / ton. Near the close, the empty increased and reduced, once suppressing the lead price to 16620 yuan / ton, and finally closed at 16630 yuan / ton, down 90 yuan / ton, down 0.54%, and the position increased by 96 hands to 58210 hands. Shanghai lead temporarily closed a small negative line, weak fundamentals led to the continuation of Shanghai lead contrary to the trend of the outer disk, strong outer plate at night or some relief to the weak market of Shanghai lead, but it is still difficult to reverse the current continuous downward rhythm.

Shanghai market Jinsha lead 16670-16680 yuan / ton, to the 1911 contract discount 20-10 yuan / ton; shower, southern lead 1666016670 yuan / ton, to the 1911 contract discount 30-20 yuan / ton; among them white goods can be discounted 50-40 yuan / ton. Period lead weak downward, the holder quotation goes with the market, the downstream receives the goods on demand, but the recycled lead price advantage is still more significant, the storage enterprise to its favor degree is higher, the overall market transaction is still limited.

Guangdong market South China lead 16650 yuan / ton, to SMM1# lead average price flat water quotation; Guangxi south 16530 yuan / ton, to SMM1# lead average price discount 120 yuan / ton quoted from the factory. Lead price weakness does not change, some traders sell at low prices, paste water shipment enthusiasm decline, at the same time downstream demand is limited, market trading is light. Henan Yuguang, Wanyang scattered single temporarily do not quote, mainly long single; Jinli 16500-16550 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 150100 yuan / ton quotation. As some of the local refineries are still in the maintenance state, especially the delivery brand supply is limited, and the downstream demand is not prosperous, the overall market is still dominated by long single transactions. Other areas such as: Hunan Shuikoushan 16600-16620 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead 50-30 yuan / ton quotation (traders); Jiangxi copper industry 16650 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead flat quotation; Yunnan Zhenxing 16350 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 300 yuan / ton.


Geneva zinc opened at US $2471.5 / tonne. At the beginning of the day, after a brief horizontal finishing, Lun Zinc fell slightly and probed down US $2489.5 / ton. The support of the lower 5-day moving average was strong, and Lun Zinc stopped falling and rebounded. In the first line of US $2475 / ton shock finishing, entered the European trading session, more into the empty, Lun Zinc pulled up rapidly, concussive operation below the integer mark of US $2500 / ton, as of 17: 11, Lun Zinc closed up $24 / tonne, or 0.97 per cent, at $2497. Geneva zinc received two consecutive positive, the lower averages are neatly upward, the KDJ index is also turned up, indicating that Lun zinc may have a certain degree of action energy, superimposed LME zinc stocks fell again after falling to a 20-year low yesterday, overseas structural stability BACK, bulls confidence has increased one after another to boost zinc prices, giving zinc prices upward momentum. Pay attention to the intensity of suppression at the top of the $2500 / ton integer pass at night.

Intraday Shanghai zinc main force 1912 contract opened at 18835 yuan / ton, Shanghai zinc as a whole around the daily average line in 18850 yuan / ton shock finishing operation. At the beginning of the session, Shanghai zinc slightly down to 18805 yuan / ton, the lower integer gate support strength is strong, Shanghai zinc slightly rebounded, the whole of the daily moving average above the horizontal plate concussion, during the attempt to break through the 10-day moving average suppression, but failed, the end of the day slightly downward and then climbed again, closing at 18880 yuan / ton, flat than the previous trading, trading volume reduced by 101000 to 204000 hands, position reduced by 5876 to 198000 hands. During the day, Shanghai zinc closed Yang, under pressure to run under the Brin Road middle track, stimulated by the news that overseas inventories fell to a low point, the short left the market to slightly boost the zinc price, but the total outflow of funds from the 11 and 12 contracts within the day exceeded 40 million, indicating that the market wait-and-see mood is becoming stronger, Shanghai zinc short-term or partial concussion arrangement, and pay attention to the suppression of Brin Road middle track at night.

Shanghai zinc mainstream transaction in 18910-18960 yuan / ton, Shuangyan transaction in 18910-18960 yuan / ton; AZ, SMC mainstream transaction in 18890-18960 yuan / ton; zinc mainstream transaction 1886018920 yuan / ton. The average price of water in November was 100 yuan / ton, Shuangyan was 100 yuan / ton, AZ and SMC were 80-100 yuan / ton, and the mainstream transaction was 18840-18890 yuan / ton. This morning, the spot quotation in Shanghai stock market generally quoted 120 yuan / ton for the 1911 monthly ticket, but the market buying order was weak, and the quotation was gradually reduced to 100 yuan / ton. Some of the next monthly tickets are quoted at about 10% of the net average price. The tax system upgrade the day before, the market for the current month ticket demand has weakened, this month next month note price difference has gradually narrowed. Enter the second trading session, the market quotation continues to weaken trend, spot quotation a small amount of 90 yuan / ton. Overall, trading in the market today is weaker than yesterday.

Guangdong zinc mainstream transaction in 18790-18890 yuan / ton, the quotation is concentrated in Shanghai zinc 1912 contract discount 30-discount 20 yuan / ton, Guangdong market than Shanghai stock market discount narrowed from 130 yuan / ton to 100 yuan / ton. Refinery shipments are normal, the market supply circulation is more abundant. In the morning, the quotation of the holder is concentrated in the discount of 20 yuan / ton to the 12 contract, entering the second trading period, the quotation of the trader is concentrated in the discount of 2030 yuan / ton to the 12 contract. Disk upward, rising water is more deadlocked, downstream mostly wait and see inquiry, traders contribute part of the transaction, but traders generally have sufficient supply on hand, mostly shipment, trading is also relatively light. On the whole, today's investors are contributed by traders, and the transaction atmosphere is worse than yesterday. Yi Qilin, Cishan, Tiefeng, Mengzi mainstream transactions in 18790-18890 yuan / ton near.

The mainstream transaction of zinc ingots in Tianjin market is 18900-20310 yuan / ton, the mainstream transaction of ordinary brands is 18900-19000 / ton, the contract for 1911 is about 70-150 yuan / ton, and the rising water in Tianjin market is slightly expanded from 20 yuan / ton to 30 yuan / ton. Refinery shipments are normal today. In the market, the circulation of goods tends to be loose. The quotation of high-priced brand source is concentrated in the vicinity of 120-150 yuan / ton for 11 contract, and the quotation for ordinary brand source is about 7090 yuan / ton for 11-liter water. Disk compared with yesterday, rising water held stable, downstream wait-and-see mood thickened, superimposed in the northern region of environmental protection production restrictions, haze reasons led to the northern part of the high-speed was blocked today, downstream demand fell, extremely cautious mining. On the whole, there are few transactions today, which is worse than yesterday. Zi Zijin, Hongye, Bailing, Chi Hong, Xikuang, etc., were traded in 18900-19000 yuan / ton, and Zi Zijin, Chi Hong and Hongye were traded in 18850-18950 yuan / ton.


Lunni Asia opened today at $16605 / tonne, after the opening, Lunni all the way up, touch high $16830 / tonne, then under pressure, slightly down, the whole above the daily moving average, the center of gravity around the $16760 / tonne narrow volatility operation, as of 16: 30, reported at $16790 / tonne, compared with the previous trading day settlement price rose $1650 / ton, up 0.99%, trading volume decreased by 3448 hands to 2444 hands, position volume decreased by 3448 hands to 280500 hands. Lunni temporarily closed at the Xiaoyang line, breaking through the 5 / 60 day moving average resistance, showing a ladder upward trend for 3 days in a row. Today, we are concerned about whether Lunni can stand on the 60-day moving average and guard the US $16800 / ton barrier.

Shanghai Nickel 1912 contract opened today at 131230 yuan / ton, before noon, Shanghai nickel from 131000 yuan /, first-line shock upward, near the lunch break, touch high 134120 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, Shanghai nickel fell slightly, with a narrow fluctuation around 133000 yuan / ton, and finally closed at 133080 yuan / ton, up 4350 yuan from the settlement price of the previous trading day. / ton, up 3.38%, trading volume increased by 99000 hands to 1.277 million hands, position decreased by 21000 hands to 322000 hands. Shanghai nickel closed in the sun column, the top close to the 20-day moving average, this evening concerned about Shanghai nickel in 133000 yuan / ton first-line shock.

Today, Russian nickel compared with Shanghai nickel 1911 discount to 100 yuan / ton, Jinchuan nickel than Shanghai nickel 1911 contract generally increased water 200-300 yuan / ton. The rising water in Jinchuan of Russian nickel continues to decline, mainly due to the large price difference between Shanghai nickel and Wuxi nickel in the near future, which stimulates the steel mills to purchase nickel beans from Wuxi plate, and the demand for nickel plate is obviously restrained. Due to the price gap between the two cities is still large, this phenomenon is expected to continue in the near future, mainstream traders are quoted nickel in Shanghai, Shanghai spot market trading is very light. Superimposed nickel price due to Ruimu accident continues to be strong, spot wait-and-see mood is strong. Curb spot trading. In the afternoon, the nickel price high shock movement, the trading continues to be light.


After the opening of the electronic plate of 16640 US dollars / ton today, the Asian plate remained consolidated near the opening price at the beginning of the session, then quickly rose to 16750 US dollars / ton and maintained the horizontal consolidation situation at a high level. In the afternoon of the Asian plate, Lunxi was under pressure slightly downward. After the opening of the European market, Lunxi trend again under pressure, overall maintained below the daily moving average of $16680 / ton under pressure slightly downward, as of 17: 00, Lunxi's latest price of $16685 / ton, showing a small positive line, the physical part is located near the 60-day moving average, the upper shadow line is near the 40-day moving average, the support below Lunxi is expected to be near the 20-day moving average of $16500 / ton, and the upper resistance is near the 5-10 moving average of $16800 / ton. This evening, you can look at the initial value of durable goods orders (monthly rate) in the United States in September, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits after last week's quarterly survey in the United States (1,000 people), the initial value of the Markit Manufacturing Purchasing managers Index in October and the sales of new homes in the United States in September (annualized monthly rate).

Shanghai tin 2001 contract last night after the opening of 138600 yuan / ton, affected by short positions, all the way down to 137400 yuan / ton near to maintain a low consolidation. After the opening of 137680 yuan / ton in early trading today, it fell again to a daily low of 137360 yuan / ton and then hit bottom and rose all the way up to near the opening price last night. At the end of the day, it fell again to 138110 yuan / ton, down 270yuan / ton, down 0.2 per cent. The trading volume was 24608 hands, and the position was 40572 hands, an increase of 468 hands. Today, Shanghai tin overall showed a trend of first suppression and then rise, closed with a small negative line, the physical part is located near the 5-10 moving average, the lower shadow line is supported by the 20-day moving average, and the support below Shanghai tin is expected to be near the 20-day moving average of 137000 yuan / ton.

In the spot market, the mainstream transaction price is stable at 137000-139500 yuan / ton today, and the low price source of goods near 136500 yuan / ton still exists. At present, tin city is affected by the weak overall downstream demand, coupled with the relatively strong quotation of most smelters, only a small number of small manufacturers can close today, and most manufacturers maintain a generally weak state of transaction. The transaction situation of traders in Shanghai has not improved significantly. The overall transaction of Shanghai tin spot market is generally weak. Shanghai tin 2001 contract set Yunxi Shengshui 800 yuan / ton, ordinary cloud word discount 200-400 yuan / ton, small brand discount 500-800 yuan / ton.

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