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Comment on the spot Exchange Day of SMM basic Metals on October 23rd
Oct 23,2019 19:37CST
translation
Source:SMM
Comment on the spot Exchange Day of SMM basic Metals on October 23rd
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

Copper

Today, Yapanlun copper opened low at $5815 / ton, as the postponement of Brexit has become a foregone conclusion, the market risk aversion is heating up, the dollar, gold and other safe-haven assets showed strong performance today, copper prices under pressure, fell below the 5800 mark at noon, and the center of gravity moved down to $5798 / ton. Then into the European market, copper prices briefly down the market, quickly pulled up from a low of $5780 / ton, as LME announced today that copper stocks fell by more than 800 tons, then the center of gravity to maintain a stable 5800 level, up to $5822 / ton. As of 17: 00, Lun Copper closed down 0.27 per cent at $5817 a tonne, with the dollar index at 97.565 and US crude oil at $53.84 a barrel. Late at night, the US FHFA house price index for August is expected to be 0.3 per cent lower than the previous figure, and EIA crude oil inventories are expected to increase by 2.232 million barrels in the week to October 18. Recently, due to the increase in demand risk in the crude oil market, the price of crude oil has remained low. And at present, the macro weak pattern has been determined, a large number of pressure. At present, the copper short-term fell below the 5-day and 10-day moving average, and the KDJ index became weaker. Waiting for guidance from the dollar and crude oil at night to test whether Lun Copper can maintain a stable position of $5800 / tonne.

Today, the Shanghai copper main contract opened at 47010 yuan / ton in the morning, the center of gravity maintained 47060 yuan / ton shock finishing after the opening, then the bulls reduced their positions one after another, the copper price stepped down until the end of noon, the center of gravity continued to move up to 47020 yuan / ton in the afternoon, but the market confidence was insufficient, the bulls left one after another, and closed down at 46930 yuan / ton, down 210 yuan / ton, down 0.45%. The main contract position of Shanghai Copper decreased by 1808 hands to 225000 hands today, while the trading volume increased by 5454 hands to 17000 hands. Today, the position continued to move backward, Shanghai Copper 2001 and 2002 contracts increased by about 7200 hands to 348000 hands. The Shanghai copper index reduced its position by 4128 hands to 540000, while trading volume increased by 6668 to 36000. The pullback from today's high was mainly due to delays in the current Brexit plan and increased pessimism in the market, as some investors withdrew from the market, coupled with the already weak global macroeconomic situation. At night, waiting for the outer plate to guide, test whether Shanghai copper can hold the 46900 yuan / ton barrier.

Today, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot contract rose 30 ~ 80 yuan / ton, Pingshui copper transaction price 46990 yuan / ton ~ 47060 yuan / ton, Shengshui copper transaction price 47010 yuan / ton ~ 47080 yuan / ton. Shanghai copper pressure fell to 47000 yuan / ton below. The willingness of the holder to exchange cash is gradually strengthened, but some of the quotations are firm and there is demand for the current monthly ticket, which makes the early market quotation rise by 50 yuan / ton to 80 yuan / ton, but there is little demand. Under the guidance of the rapid reduction in the price of next month's ticket, the overall quotation in the market is declining rapidly. The monthly ticket is adjusted to the vicinity of 50 yuan / ton, and the flat copper ticket is reduced to 30 yuan / ton to 50 yuan / ton. only then can the transaction improve. The supply of wet copper was reduced from 30 yuan / ton to flat water. The price difference between the current monthly bill and next month's bill is 20% 30 yuan / ton. Today, the number of exchangers has increased significantly, but the downstream demand remains rigid, and most of the transactions are completed by long single delivery. The risk aversion sentiment before the national tax upgrade has also increased the number of exchangers. Under the pattern of supply exceeding demand, the conversion factor makes the rising water and falling become the leading behavior of the market. In the afternoon, the market transaction sentiment is weaker, under the pressure of tax tickets and high inventory, the holder took the initiative to lower the offer to attract transactions, the market reaction was mediocre. In the afternoon, Pingshui copper reported 30-50 yuan / ton, good copper reported 50-70 yuan / ton, the transaction price in the range of 46950 yuan / ton-47030 yuan / ton.

Aluminum

Lun aluminum opened at 1717.5 US dollars / ton in the morning, and the Asian trading session was almost horizontal, with a fluctuating price spread of less than 2 US dollars / ton. After entering the European trading session, Lun aluminum began to climb higher, rising all the way to the intraday high point near 1723.5 US dollars / ton. Then, due to a wave of short entry prices, Lun aluminum fell back to a high level of around 1716 US dollars / ton, and closed at 1717.5 US dollars / ton at 18:40. Down 2 US dollars / ton, down 0.12%, recorded a cross star, the center of gravity continued to sink from yesterday, below all moving averages, the third line of the day KDJ continued to fall, the low level of the dollar index rose during the day, the trend of Lun aluminum was under pressure, and the operating space was narrow under a weak posture. It is expected to continue to maintain weak shocks in the evening, with limited space above. In the evening, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of macro data such as the dollar index, EIA crude oil inventory changes, and the development of the Brexit process on the market trading atmosphere.

The 1912 contract of Shanghai Aluminum Company opened at 13790 yuan / ton in the morning, hovering in the front line of 13785 yuan / ton before noon to seek an opportunity to break through. During the entanglement period, Shanghai aluminum always did not accumulate enough power to go up. In the afternoon, it fell below all moving averages and fell below 13760 yuan / ton. At this time, the lack of short confidence began to run away one after another. Shanghai aluminum thus gained momentum and began to rebound from low levels, hitting a high of 13795 yuan / ton in late trading and closing at 13790 yuan / ton. Up 10 yuan / ton, up 0.07%, position reduced by 3778 hands to 238000 hands, trading volume reduced 37280 hands to 59788 hands, closed in the small positive line, the center of gravity is basically the same as yesterday. Within the day, the trend of Shanghai aluminum is relatively stable, the upper 13800 yuan / ton gate resistance level is obvious, because the inventory to stack the spot is strong, short confidence is not strong, there is still a certain degree of support in the short term, it is expected to maintain the interval weak concussion in the evening, and seek new disk logic in the long-short game, pay attention to the change of position and the tendency of market atmosphere in the evening.

Aluminum in the current month before noon to maintain a narrow range of shocks. Shanghai Wuxi market spot quotation concentrated in 13940-13960 yuan / ton, spot price increased by 20 yuan / ton compared with yesterday, the price rose 90-110 yuan / ton, next month and the monthly ticket price difference of less than 20 yuan / ton, Hangzhou area spot price of 13950-13960 yuan / ton. Today, the holders are relatively high prices, shipments are not much, and middlemen still show a positive willingness to receive goods, under the circumstances of less and more spot rising water continues to rise, and even reached around 110 yuan / ton (the last time the water rose more than 100 this year was the VAT reform at the end of March). The rising spot water is mainly due to the tight supply of electrolytic aluminum inventory in the market under the background of continuing to go to the warehouse, and the VAT system will be shut down at the end of the month, and there will be a shortage of invoices at the end of the month. This has further strengthened the mentality of the cardholders in cherishing the sale. Today, the trading stalemate between the buyers and sellers of the traders is mediocre. Downstream manufacturers today on-demand goods, but under the background of high water fear is obvious, the willingness to receive goods is not strong. The overall transaction in East China was normal today. In the afternoon, aluminum continued to maintain a narrow range of fluctuations, a small number of holders quoted in the range of 13930-13940 yuan / ton, the disk rose water near 100 yuan / ton, almost no transaction.

Lead

Within days, Lun lead opened at 2199.5 US dollars / ton, at the beginning of the day affected by Shanghai lead, Lun lead rapid decline, low once down to 2194.5 US dollars / ton, after basically running in the first line of 2195 US dollars, entering the European period, Lun lead once again accelerated upward, up along the five-day line, high to 2205 US dollars / ton, as of 15: 06, Lun lead reported at 2203 US dollars / ton. Lun lead continues the high upward market, short-term attention to the 2200 level support.

Within days, the Shanghai lead main contract 1912 opened at 16835 yuan / ton, early Shanghai lead short entry, Shanghai lead shock downward, directly break the 60-day moving average support, low down to 16650 yuan / ton, after the market selling pressure alleviated, Shanghai lead low shock operation, basic in the 16670 yuan first-line operation, finally reported in 16665 yuan / ton, down 155 yuan / ton, 0.92%, the position increased 9138 hands to 58000 hands. Shanghai lead break down, short-term Shanghai lead there is room to continue to explore, low first look at 16500 yuan support.

Shanghai market Jinsha, bathing, southern lead 16745-16755 yuan / ton, the 1911 contract discount 30-20 yuan / ton, of which white goods can be discounted 50-40 yuan / ton. Lead break down, downstream intention to bargain purchase according to demand, stock enterprise inquiry increase, holder quotation is on the market, spot discount situation is basically the same as yesterday, and recycled lead deep sticking water does not change, bulk single market trading activity is relatively improved, but trading volume is still limited.

Guangdong market South China lead 16700 yuan / ton, to SMM1# lead average price flat quotation; South Reserve Jinsha 16755 yuan / ton, to 1911 contract discount 20 yuan / ton; South Reserve South 16715-16725 yuan / ton, to 1911 contract discount 60-50 yuan / ton; lead price continues to weaken, stimulate part of the downstream bargain purchase, and recycled lead price advantage, the market trading atmosphere is slightly better. Henan Yuguang, Wanyang and other smelters are mainly long single transactions; Jinli 16550-16600 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 150-100 yuan / ton quotation. Lead prices fell, primary lead refineries sold at low prices, some intend to narrow the price discount, downstream is received on demand, the overall transaction to long single. Other areas such as: Hunan Shuikoushan 16650-16670 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead 50-30 yuan / ton quotation (traders); Jiangxi copper industry 16700 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead flat quotation; Yunnan Zhenxing 16400 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 300 yuan / ton.

Zinc

Geneva zinc opened at $2460 / tonne, at the beginning of the day, Lun zinc around the daily average slightly down, the center of gravity sunk to $2450 / ton line, then Lun zinc maintained the banner narrow finishing trend, entered the European trading session, more into the empty, Lun zinc rushed up to $2470 / ton line, briefly after Xu Li went up again, as of 16: 55, Lun zinc closed at $2484 / ton, up $23.50 / ton, an increase of 0.96 percent. at the beginning of the day, the zinc of Geneva opened at US $2470 / ton, and at the beginning of the day, the center of gravity of Lun Zinc sank slightly to US $2450 / ton. Geneva zinc turned negative and positive, the lower averages are neatly upward, the KDJ index is also turned up, indicating that Lun zinc may have a certain degree of action energy, superimposed LME zinc inventory recorded a decline for many days in a row, overseas structure stable BACK, to give a little support to zinc prices. Pay attention to the suppression of Brin Road at night.

The intraday Shanghai zinc main force 1912 contract opened at 18965 yuan / ton, at the beginning of the day, Shanghai zinc climbed slightly and gradually fell, followed by 18790 yuan / ton first-line concussion collation, afternoon, boosted by the strength of the outer plate, Shanghai zinc slightly upward, but 18800 yuan / ton integer suppression is strong, Shanghai zinc failed to stand firm, fell again, Shanghai zinc climbed slightly at the end of the day, closed down 18800 yuan / ton, down 0.66% from the previous trading. Trading volume increased by 159000 hands to 305000 hands, position increased by 8424 hands to 204000 hands. During the day, Shanghai zinc closed Yin, around Brin Road middle rail operation, economic downward pressure, the increase in positions in the day to short mainly to make zinc prices under pressure, indicating that the market is more bearish, Shanghai zinc short-term there is a certain downward pressure, pay attention to the lower 40-day moving average support at night.

Shanghai zinc mainstream transaction in 18880-18920 yuan / ton, Shuangyan transaction in 18880-18920 yuan / ton; SMC mainstream transaction in 18880-18910 yuan / ton; India mainstream transaction 18860-18890 yuan / ton. SMC reported 110-120 yuan / ton of water in November, 110-120 yuan / ton in November and 90 yuan / ton in November. The mainstream transaction was 18810-18850 yuan / ton. Near the tax upgrade invoice deadline, and this month long order final settlement date is approaching, the market quotation moves to next month ticket quotation one after another. In the morning, the market quotes 120-130 yuan / ton for the November monthly ticket, 110-120 yuan for the next monthly ticket, 10-15 yuan / ton for the net price, and about 10 yuan / ton for the bill price. Due to the bill problem, most of the long single transaction this month has been completed, so next month the bill supply selling pressure, into the second trading period, the general November quotation down to 100-110 yuan / ton. Rumor has it that some of Ningbo's imported KZ and AZ goods have arrived, but after the disk price has gone down, the mood of receiving goods downstream is good, and the mood of picking and buying is still good. Overall, today's spot market trading is OK, downstream buying mood is still good.

Guangdong zinc mainstream transaction in 18720-18820 yuan / ton, the quotation is concentrated in Shanghai zinc 1912 contract discount 30-10 yuan / ton, Guangdong market than Shanghai stock market discount expanded from 120 yuan / ton to 130 yuan / ton. Refinery shipments are normal, the market supply circulation is more abundant. In the morning, the holder quotes, and the monthly ticket is concentrated near the flat water of the 12 contract; Next month ticket concentrated in the 12 contract discount 10-20 yuan / ton near, entered the second trading session, the trader quotation concentrates on the 12 contract discount 20-30 yuan / ton disk to fall, the trader is willing to stand up the price is strong, but failed to insist, the downstream wait-and-see mood is strong, mostly to inquire, the demand for monthly ticket between traders is better, the overall transaction is mainly contributed by traders. The atmosphere of the deal is a little worse than yesterday. Yi Qilin, Cishan, Tiefeng, Mengzi mainstream transactions in 18720-18820 yuan / ton near.

The mainstream transaction of zinc ingots in Tianjin market was 18840-20260 yuan / ton, that of ordinary brands was 1884018940 / ton, and that of 1911 contract was 70-150 yuan / ton. The rising water of Tianjin market was slightly expanded from 10 yuan / ton to 20 yuan / ton. Refinery shipments are normal today. In the market, the circulation of goods tends to be loose. The quotation of high-priced brand source is concentrated in the vicinity of 120-150 yuan / ton for 11 contract, and the quotation for ordinary brand source is about 70110 yuan / ton for 11-liter water. The decline of the disk is more obvious than yesterday, and the shippers' willingness to ship is stronger and take the initiative to lower the rising water. However, the downstream of Hebei Province may be more cautious due to environmental restrictions, and the willingness to buy is still on the low side under the double boost of the downgoing of the disk and the decline of rising water. Overall, today's deal continues yesterday's light trend. Zi Zijin, Hongye, Bailing, Chi Hong, Xikuang, etc., were traded in 18840-18940 yuan / ton, and Zi Zijin, Chi Hong and Hongye were traded in 18790-18890 yuan / ton.

Nickel

Lunni Asia opened today at $16575 / tonne, at the beginning of the day, Lunni pressure daily average line shock downward, to $16300 / tonne line to stop falling after a small upward revision, to daily average line $16400 / tonne first-line horizontal concussion. In the afternoon, Lunni's next downlink, supported by the 5-day moving average, rebounded slightly after falling $16255 / tonne, closing at $16295 / tonne at 16: 30, down $265 / tonne, or 1.6%, from the previous day's settlement price, with a trading volume of 9810 to 1854 and a position of 277848. LME inventory fell another 3438 tons to 83694 tons today, Lunni temporarily closed in the small negative line, above the $16000 / ton level pressure, K column as a whole standing above the 5-day moving average, this evening focused on the support of the 5-day moving average below Lunni. Tonight's focus on the euro zone consumer confidence index for October initial value, the United States to October 18 week EIA crude oil stocks (10, 000 barrels).

Shanghai nickel 1912 contract opened at 130570 yuan / ton today, during the day, Shanghai nickel as a whole was 129000 yuan / ton first-line support, above the pressure of 130000 yuan / ton, narrow range concussion operation, and finally closed at 129970 yuan / ton, compared with the settlement price of 3760 yuan / ton on the previous trading day, up 2.98%, trading volume increased by 442000 hands to 1.178 million hands, position volume decreased by 32000 hands to 344000 hands. Shanghai Nickel 1912 contract daily capital outflow of 253 million yuan, closed at the Zhongyang column, break through the 5-day moving average, explore the 10-day moving average on the shadow line, and pay attention to the concussion of Shanghai Nickel 130000 yuan / ton at night.

Today, Russian nickel is 150 yuan / ton higher than Shanghai Nickel 1911, and Jinchuan Nickel is 200-400 yuan / ton higher than Shanghai Nickel 1911 contract. Russian nickel Jinchuan rising water continues to decline, mainly due to the recent Shanghai nickel and Wuxi nickel price difference, stimulate steel mills have no tin plate to purchase nickel beans, nickel plate demand has been significantly suppressed. Due to the price gap between the two cities is still large, this phenomenon is expected to continue in the near future, mainstream traders are quoted nickel in Shanghai, Shanghai spot market trading is very light. Superimposed nickel prices due to last night's Norilsk nickel industry accident rebounded, although there is a decline today, but the overall increase is still large, restraining spot trading. The ex-factory price of Jinchuan Company is 131900 yuan / ton, 2400 yuan / ton higher than yesterday. In the afternoon nickel prices continue to fluctuate around 132200, the spot market response is mediocre, trading continues to be weak.

Tin

Lunxi electronic disk today after the opening of $16820 / ton, the Asian session generally maintained in the opening price near the horizontal finishing. After the opening of the European market, the initial rise to $16825 / ton after hindered downward pressure, as of 17: 00, Lunxi's latest price of $16715 / ton, showing a small negative line, the physical part is located near the 10-day moving average, the bottom is supported by the 40-60 day moving average, and the support below Lunxi is expected to be near the 20-day moving average of $16500 / ton. Take a look at last week's API crude oil inventory changes in the United States this evening (10,000 barrels).

Shanghai tin main force 2001 contract last night after the opening of 137850 yuan / ton, due to the long market and short positions in Shanghai tin shock all the way up to a daily high of 139310 yuan / ton. After the opening of 139140 yuan / ton in early trading this morning, affected by the long departure and short positions, Shanghai tin fell to 138200 yuan / ton after a small rise. Then until the close, Shanghai tin overall maintained at 138300 yuan / ton consolidation, finally closed at 138380 yuan / ton, up 580 yuan / ton, down 0.42%. The trading volume was 23562 hands, the position was 40104 hands, and the number was reduced by 120 hands. Today, tin in Shanghai is affected by the double forces of multiple and empty, showing a downward trend, affected by weak demand downstream, Shanghai tin may maintain a horizontal plate finishing trend in the short term, the lower support is expected to be near the 20-day moving average of 137000 yuan / ton, and the upper resistance is near the integer level of 140000 yuan / ton.

In the spot market, the mainstream transaction price today is 137000-139500 yuan / ton, and there is a low price source near 136000-136500 yuan / ton in the market. Prices for smelters remained strong and actual shipments at most refineries were weak. Some traders in Shanghai have access to the spot in a small number of bargains, while downstream enterprises have maintained a weak state of buying, and have a strong wait-and-see mentality. Today, only a small number of enterprises purchase on demand. Shanghai tin spot market overall transaction atmosphere is light. The Shanghai period tin 2001 contract sets the cloud tin to raise the water 700 yuan / ton, the ordinary cloud word discount 300 yuan / ton, the small brand discount 6001000 yuan / ton.

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