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Comment on the spot Exchange Day of SMM basic Metals on October 21
Oct 21,2019 17:59CST
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Source:SMM
Comment on the spot Exchange Day of SMM basic Metals on October 21
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

Copper: today's Yapanlun copper opened at $5814.5 / tonne, today as a result of the Chilean port strike, copper supply once again caused concern in the market, the overall center of gravity of copper prices held steady high, lunchtime copper exploration high of $5837.5 / tonne. At the end of the Asian plate, due to the smooth completion of Brexit at the end of this month, there are still risks, the macro side is also waiting for the further development of Brexit, the euro performance stagnant, the market risk aversion to gold, silver and other assets, copper prices fell slightly lower by $5808 / ton, entered the European period, Lun copper low rebounded, and then rushed to $5839.5, re-standing above the daily moving average. As of 17: 00, Lun Copper closed at $5827 / tonne, up $6 / tonne, with the dollar index at $97.230 and US crude oil at $54.12 a barrel. Evening economic data are light, and copper prices are not expected to fluctuate much in the evening as a whole. At present, Lun copper breaks through all moving averages, stands on and will try the upper edge of the near-term operating range. Waiting for the guidance of the dollar and crude oil at night to test whether Lun copper can effectively break through the $5840 / ton position.

Today, the Shanghai copper main contract 1912 opened at 47070 yuan / ton, and then pulled up slightly until the second quarter trading session pulled up to the day's highest level of 47180 yuan / ton, but the high market confidence is difficult to stand firm, and then the trend all the way down to the close, closed at 47020 yuan / ton, up 310 yuan / ton, up 0.66%. The main contract of Shanghai Copper today reduced its position by 12000 hands to 224000 hands, trading volume increased by 51000 hands to 172000 hands, Shanghai copper index position decreased by 24000 hands to 584000 hands, trading volume increased by 85000 hands to 316000 hands. Today, the trend of the market first raised and then suppressed, due to the recent weak economic data in the United States and the recent rise in the foreign exchange of the euro, the US index continued to maintain a low level of 97.3, and the center of gravity of Shanghai copper rebounded to the 47000 level to maintain stability. However, the global macroeconomic weakness is difficult to change, vigilant against the falling risk of copper prices rising in the short term, the current Shanghai copper MACD continues to close the green pillar, waiting for the outer plate guidance at night, testing whether Shanghai copper can stick to the 47000 yuan / ton level, and follow the copper to continue to rise.

Today, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot contract rose 80 ~ 110 yuan / ton, Pingshui copper transaction price 47140 yuan / ton ~ 47220 yuan / ton, Shengshui copper transaction price 47150 yuan / ton ~ 47240 yuan / ton. Copper rallied on Friday, boosted by a fall in the dollar, and copper in Shanghai rose sharply to 47100 yuan a tonne today. Due to the suspension of tax ticket system upgrade tickets on the 25th of this month, the market offered goods at a price of 90 yuan / ton to 110 yuan / ton in the morning market, but the plate was high and the rising water was on the high side. The transaction was more wait-and-see. The quotation of the holder was slightly loose. The price of good copper could be pressed to 90 yuan / ton. After 11:00, some of the holders took the initiative to lower the price to 70 yuan / ton in order to close the transaction. The price of good copper can be pressed to 90 yuan / ton, and after 11:00, some of the holders will take the initiative to lower the price to 70 yuan / ton in order to close the transaction. The quotation of wet copper is stable in the range of 40 ~ 50 yuan / ton. In today's market, the share of next month's ticket quotation in the market is also gradually increasing, with a difference of 20 yuan / ton with that month's ticket price. Copper price rise suppresses downstream market pick-up, trade also has no intention to enter the market to receive goods, the market mostly shows cautious stop, traders mostly to complete the end of this month delivery order, but the holder's willingness to bid for the current month ticket has not changed. In the afternoon, the market mainly focused on the demand for bills, so the quotation of bills was basically maintained that month. Today, the market price remained high above 47000 yuan / ton, so there was no downstream pick-up of goods. In the afternoon, Pingshui copper quoted 70-80 yuan / ton, good copper reported 90-100 yuan / ton, and the transaction price was 47070 yuan / ton-47140 yuan / ton.

Aluminum: aluminum opened at $1736 / tonne in the morning, hovered at $1737 / tonne after briefly hitting a high of $1741 / tonne in Asian trading, fell below all EMA by $1727.5 / tonne in the afternoon, and then climbed all the way up along the 5-day moving average from low to 17: 00. Aluminum closed at $1744.5 / tonne, trading volume decreased 6771 hands to 2388 hands, position increased by 223 hands to 745000 hands, closed at the small positive line. Recorded five Lianyang, the center of gravity continued to rise compared with last Friday, began to be located above the 20-day moving average, daily MACD red line elongated. Today, the United States Index recorded five consecutive cloudy, low 97.145 refreshed July 22 low, metal mostly floating red, Lun aluminum hovered for a long time, the trend has risen, but there is still a certain distance from the upper 40-day moving average, it is expected to maintain the interval shock in the evening, continue to pay attention to the trend of the US index and the surrounding metal changes in the evening.

The 1912 contract of the main Company of Shanghai Aluminum opened at 13880 yuan / ton in the morning, and at the beginning of the day, it encountered shorts to increase its positions by more than a thousand hands. Because of the greater pressure on the upper side at the same time, Shanghai aluminum was unable to bear pressure and fell below all the moving averages. at noon, it hovered all the way down, hovering in the first line of 13825 yuan / ton in the afternoon, because there was no long force to enter the market to drive the disk to pick up. In the afternoon, the bears continued to increase their positions, Shanghai aluminum continued to fall back, and near the end of the day, Shanghai aluminum leaked to 13740 yuan / ton, the lowest point in the day. Probe low short leave the market, the disk slightly rebounded, closed at 13760 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton, down 0.72%, trading volume increased 41670 hands to 130000 hands, position increased 8422 hands to 241000 hands, closed in the negative line. Today, aluminum prices almost gave up most of the gains three days before. In the early days of SMM, it has been emphasized that aluminum prices are expected to grow on the supply side and weaken on the consumer side. Under the background of expected growth on the supply side and weakening expectations on the consumer side, aluminum prices in the fourth quarter are under pressure, and the upper space is smaller. Last week's 4 consecutive gains belong to a phased rebound, because the logic of the forward bias has not changed, and the subsequent vomiting increases are indeed sooner or later. This rapid correction today shows that market confidence is not strong. It is expected to continue to test the support level of 13800 yuan / ton in the evening, and continue to pay attention to the change guidance of Shanghai aluminum multi-empty position strength in the evening.

Spot market, Shanghai aluminum all the way down by noon that month. The monthly quotation in Shanghai Wuxi market is between 13960-13980 yuan / ton, 7090 yuan / ton, the difference between next month and the current monthly ticket price is about 10 yuan / ton, and the spot price in Hangzhou is 1399014000 yuan / ton. The spot price is relatively high in the morning, the holder is active to ship the goods, under the background of the active receipt of the goods by the big customers, the trading between the traders is more active, with the aluminum down, the spot price falls back, the holder begins to cherish the sale, the shipment decreases, at this time the middleman's willingness to accept the goods begins to rise, the market begins to show a little more than the situation, because the transaction heat behind, at this time the two sides show a slight stalemate. Downstream manufacturers today on-demand procurement, a small amount of stock, because the price is still holding a wait-and-see attitude, today's replenishment enthusiasm is not high. East China as a whole, the deal is OK. In the afternoon, aluminum continued to fall back, all the way down, the market trading atmosphere is light, a small number of holders quoted in 13930-13950 yuan / ton, on the surface of the water around 90-110 yuan / ton, almost no deal.

 

Lead: within the day, Lun lead opened at US $2173 / ton. In the Asian period, the center of gravity of Lun lead gradually moved up, and the trend was on the strong side. in the afternoon, with the domestic lead price diving, Lun lead concussion descended, the low level reached US $2169.5 / ton, entered the European period, the US index went down, superimposed LME lead inventory decreased by more than 300t, Lun lead was raised to US $2185 / ton, again under pressure at the US $2200 mark, Lun lead shock fell back. As of 17: 36, lun lead was up $7.50, or 0.41 per cent, at $2180 a tonne. Lun lead continues to low inventory and is structurally supported by Back, to remain strong, but the pressure of $2200 has failed many times, so Lun lead maintains the view of strong high shock.

Within days, Shanghai lead 1911 contract opened at 17020 yuan / ton, Shanghai lead at the beginning of the market tried to shock upward, but due to the expansion of the original price difference to 500-600 yuan / ton, the market selling sentiment increased, Shanghai lead opened shock downward trend, during which the bulls were defenseless, the overall reduction of positions fell, the low once fell to 16895 yuan / ton, and finally reported at 16910 yuan / ton, down 180 yuan / ton, down 1.05%, the position was reduced by 3646 hands to 49714 hands. Shanghai lead due to weak fundamentals, the so-called soft position market to this end, 11 and 12 contract spread narrowed to 110 yuan / ton, for the domestic lead price above the selling pressure is more obvious.

Shanghai market south, Mu Ron lead 1698516995 yuan / ton, to 1911 contract discount 30-20 yuan / ton quotation; Zhejiang market bronze crown 1699517015 yuan / ton, to 1911 contract discount 20 yuan / ton to flat water quotation, of which white goods can be discounted 5040 yuan / ton. The lead high level falls back, the holder quotation goes with the market, but the downstream market consumption weakens, coupled with the recycled refined lead maintains the deep discount (600-400 yuan / ton to the electrolytic lead discount), the stock enterprise receives the goods the mood is not high, the bulk order market transaction is bleak.

Guangdong market South China lead 16995 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead 20 yuan / ton quotation; South Reserve South 16985-16995 yuan / ton, 1911 contract discount 20-30 yuan / ton; South Reserve Jinsha 16975 yuan / ton, 1911 contract discount 40 yuan / ton. Lead price continues to be weak, regenerated original price difference 500-600 yuan / ton, downstream still gives priority to the purchase of recycled refined lead. Henan Yuguang, Wanyang and other smelters mainly to long single transaction; Jinli 16875 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 100 yuan / ton quotation. Lead price weak shock, downstream procurement is more cautious, market transactions continue a light trend. Other areas such as: Hunan Shuikoushan 16925-16955 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 50 to 20 yuan / ton quotation (traders); Jiangxi copper industry 16975 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead quotation; Anhui bronze crown 17050 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead rose 75 yuan / ton. The revitalization of Yunnan area is 16675 yuan / ton, and the average price of SMM1# lead is 300 yuan / ton. Lead price shock operation, downstream consumption is light, the overall transaction is in the doldrums.

 

Zinc: zinc in Geneva is opened at US $2474 / ton, and zinc at the beginning of the day runs around the daily average of US $2450 / tonne. Near the European trading session, empty Duping dragged zinc downward to around US $2440 / tonne. Near the European trading hour, Zinc Zinc returned to break through the suppression of the daily average line, and then, with the decline of the US index, Lun Zinc moved higher again. After touching US $2474 / ton upward, it dropped back to 17: 00, Lun Zinc closed at $2468.5, up $15.50, or 0.63 per cent. Geneva zinc temporarily closed the small positive line, with the shadow line below the 5-day moving average, the overseas back structure has not narrowed, the LME zinc inventory continues to record a decline, superimposed macro mood warming, the market still has certain expectations for the October interest rate cut, Lun zinc is on the strong concussion operation, pay attention to the Brin Road on the track at night to suppress the strength.

During the day, the Shanghai zinc main force 1912 contract opened at 18965 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the day, Shanghai zinc was arranged and operated around 18960 yuan / ton. Then the bulls left the market, dragging down the Shanghai zinc, and the running center of gravity moved down to 18900 yuan / ton. Near the European trading hour, short leave Shanghai zinc Xu Li returned to 18930 yuan / ton, closing up 18925 yuan / ton, up 110 yuan / ton, up 0.58%, trading volume increased 54254 hands to 245000 hands. Positions were reduced by 4456 to 196000. Shanghai zinc yin within the day, attached to the shadow line stabbing Brin Road in the middle track, KDJ index inflection slightly upward trend, indicating that Shanghai zinc action energy or more limited, the reduction of short positions within the day is mainly, mainly due to the warming of macro mood, the social inventory of the three places recorded a small decline again, or supported by Shanghai zinc, at night or running near the 5-day moving average.

The mainstream transaction of zinc in Shanghai was 19010-19060 yuan / ton, that of Shuangyan and Huize was 19020-19070 yuan / ton, that of zinc was 120-130 yuan / ton in November, that of Shuangyan and Huize was 130-140 yuan / ton, and that of zinc was 18940-18990 yuan / ton. Shanghai zinc 1911 shock downward, the first trading session in the morning closed at 18910 yuan / ton. In the first trading session, the morning holder reported an increase of 120 yuan / ton to the 1911 contract, and the mainstream quotation to the SMM net average price discount of 5 yuan / ton to flat water; in the second trading session, the zinc price continued to decline, the holdings raised the water quotation, and the 1911 contract rose 130 yuan / ton. Enter this week, the market quotation is divided into the current monthly ticket and the next monthly ticket quotation, the ordinary zinc brand price difference between the monthly ticket is in 10-20 yuan / ton, the trade market is active, the downstream enterprise meets the bargain to fill the storehouse, but still maintains in the rigid demand inventory, the market overall transaction is still good.

Guangdong zinc mainstream transaction in 18900-18960 yuan / ton, the offer focused on Shanghai zinc 1912 contract discount 30-10 yuan / ton, Guangdong market than Shanghai stock market discount expanded from 110 yuan / ton to 120 yuan / ton. Refinery shipments are normal, but some traders cherish the sale, the circulation of goods in the market has been slightly tightened. In the morning, the quotation of the cardholder is more scattered, some are reported near the flat water of the 11 contract, and some are quoted near the discount of 20 yuan / ton to the 12 contract. In addition, the holder quotes the monthly ticket at the average price of-10 yuan / ton. Enter the second trading period, with 11,12 contract spread narrowed from-30 yuan / ton to-20 yuan / ton, the market transaction focused on the 12 contract discount of 20 yuan / ton to 10 yuan / ton. Today, the market transaction atmosphere has heated up, mainly due to the issue of tickets, traders contribute to the main trading. Yi Qilin, Cishan, Tiefeng, Mengzi mainstream transactions in 18900-18960 yuan / ton near.

The mainstream transaction of zinc ingots in Tianjin market was 19010-20410 yuan / ton, and that of ordinary brands was 19010-19140 / ton. The contract for 1911 rose about 80-180 yuan / ton, and the rising water in Tianjin market expanded from 30 yuan / ton to 50 yuan / ton compared with Shanghai market. Refinery shipments are normal today. In the market, the shortage of goods has eased. The quotation of high-priced brand source is concentrated in about 160-180 yuan / ton of 11 liter water, and the quotation of ordinary brand source is about 80-130 yuan / ton of 11 liter water. Disk upward, rising water stalemate, downstream more cautious, poor willingness to buy, superimposed Hebei area because of environmental factors, affect the normal purchase of some enterprises. Overall, today's deal was worse than last Friday. Zi Zijin, Hongye, Bailing, Chi Hong, Xikuang, etc., were traded in the vicinity of 19010-19140 yuan / ton, while Zi Zijin, Chi Hong and Hongye were traded in 18960-19090 yuan / ton.

 

Tin: after the opening of US $16770 / ton today, the overall consolidation of the Asian plate remained near the opening price during the morning to noon trading. In the afternoon of the Asian plate, Lunxi rose slightly to 16870 yuan / ton to maintain a high consolidation. After the opening of the European market, Lunxi showed a wave-like downward trend, giving up all the previous gains and continued to decline, as of 16: 45, Lunxi's latest price of $16665 / ton, showing a small negative line, the physical part is located in the 10-day, 60-day moving average, the bottom is supported by the 40-day moving average. Support below Lunxi is expected to be near the 20-day moving average of $16500 a tonne. In the near future, we can pay attention to the changes in crude oil stocks in API last week in the United States (10,000 barrels).

Shanghai tin main force 2001 contract on Friday night by the sharp decline in Lunxi to 139500 yuan / ton jump low open, then the bulls left Shanghai tin fell to a night low of 138100 yuan / ton after a small recovery, and maintained at 138500 yuan / ton near the low consolidation. After the opening of 138570 yuan / ton in early trading today, the bulls left the market again. Shanghai tin fell to a daily low of 137030 yuan / ton, and finally rose to 137980 yuan / ton, down 2550 yuan / ton, or 1.81%. The trading volume was 45534 hands, the position was 40212 hands, and the number was reduced by 2754 hands. Today, Shanghai tin is generally under pressure below the daily moving average, affected by the long departure of the position has been greatly reduced, it is expected that the support below the Shanghai tin moving average is located at 137000 yuan / ton on the 20th.

Spot market, today's mainstream transaction price 136700-138500 yuan / ton, there are a small number of 136000-136500 yuan / ton near the fixed price of small goods. Smelter quotation remained relatively strong, the actual shipment situation is general. Most of the downstream enterprises maintain a wait-and-see attitude, and a small number of bargain purchases. The overall transaction atmosphere in the Shanghai-tin spot market today is generally weak. Shanghai tin 2001 contract set Yunxi Shengshui 700-800 yuan / ton, ordinary Yunzi Pingshui near-discount 300 yuan / ton, small brand discount 500-900 yuan / ton.

 

Nickel: Lunni Asia plate opened at US $16250 / ton today. Before noon, Lunni pressure daily averages fluctuated downwards to US $16000 / ton level. At noon, Lunni was subjected to pressure of US $16080 / ton horizontal plate shock above the US $16000 / ton pass. At the end of the Asian session, the US index fell, and the Lunni shock was revised up to near the opening price, forming a U-shaped trend, as of 16: 30, reported at US $16200 / ton, trading volume increased by 400 hands to 5639 hands, holding 278000 hands. Lunni temporarily closed in the lower shadow line small negative column, the top pressure of $16200 / tonne line, the lower temporary support of $16000 / tonne, pay attention to whether Lunni can hold the $16000 / tonne barrier at night.

Shanghai Nickel 1912 opened at 127850 yuan / ton today, fell below the 128000 yuan / ton mark, fell to 126800 yuan / ton after a brief horizontal shock, fell again, probed down 125330 yuan / ton, and then, Shanghai nickel overall pressure 126000 yuan / ton first-line narrow shock, in late trading, a large number of short positions closed up slightly, closing at 126390 yuan / ton, down 2630 yuan / ton, or 2.04%, from the settlement price of the previous trading day. Trading volume decreased by 188000 hands to 1.061 million hands, position increased by 13000 hands to 375000 hands. The Shanghai Nickel 1912 contract closed at the Zhongyin column today and has fallen below the 60-day moving average support, focusing on whether Shanghai Nickel can hold on to the first line of 125000 yuan / ton in the evening.

Today, Russian nickel is 300 yuan higher than Shanghai Nickel 1911 to 400 yuan / ton, and Jinchuan Nickel is 500-600 yuan / ton higher than Shanghai Nickel 1911 contract. Today, after the opening of nickel prices, quickly fell below 60 antenna support, to 128800 near to stop falling consolidation, but the market trading atmosphere is light, because the supply of negotiable goods is tight, it is difficult for traders to replenish warehouses at low prices, and downstream in the falling market, more in the wait and see. Subsequently, nickel prices continued to fall to around 127800 to stop falling fluctuations, for spot trading stimulus is limited, the whole morning market transaction atmosphere is weak. Jinchuan's ex-factory price is 128500 yuan / ton, 2800 yuan / ton lower than last Friday. The mainstream transaction is in the range of 128300 yuan / ton to 128600 yuan / ton.

 

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