SMM October 21 Shanghai Nickel spot Newsletter

LME nickel prices strengthened in July, rising from US$16,175/mt on July 1 to a monthly high of US$17,205/mt on July 24, before easing to US$16,860/mt on July 28. Despite the late-month pullback, prices remained approximately 4.2% higher than at the start of July. The price rally was mainly supported by improving macroeconomic sentiment, as expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes weakened, boosting risk asset performance and pressuring the US dollar. In addition, disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz raised concerns over potential supply risks for Middle East sulphur, while expectations of tighter nickel ore supply from Indonesia provided further support to the market. Meanwhile, LME nickel inventories continued to decline through most of July, falling from 274,230 mt on July 1 to 267,522 mt on July 28, a net reduction of 6,708 mt. Although inventories saw a slight rebound toward the end of the month, stock levels remained below early-July levels, reinforcing a more supportive market sentiment.

Russia has officially lifted its rail transport ban on sulfur originating from Kazakhstan transiting through Russian territory for export. The Federal Agency for Railway Transport (Roszheldor) imposed the ban on May 24, 2026, suspending the shipment of Kazakh sulfur to Russian seaports and railway checkpoints. The restriction forced exporters to reroute shipments via alternative corridors, with logistics costs for Tengiz and Kashagan sulfur roughly doubling through the port of Batumi, according to sources. The lifting order was signed on July 24, 2026, following instructions from First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov. Russian Railways (RZD) has notified its subsidiaries to resume accepting railcars carrying Kazakh sulfur, with shipments directed to port stations on the Oktyabrskaya, Severnaya, Kaliningradskaya, Severo-Kavkazskaya, Privolzhskaya and Dalnevostochnaya railways. Kazakhstan is a major sulfur producer and exporter, with annual exports exceeding 4 million tonnes, the bulk of which traditionally flows through Russian ports. The lifting of the ban is expected to restore normal export routes for Kazakh sulfur.

Indonesia has allowed exports of nickel pig iron (NPI) and other processed mineral products to resume after shipments were delayed by uncertainty surrounding testing requirements for associated rare earth elements (REE/LTJ). The government clarified that existing regulations only prohibit exports of pure rare earth elements (HS 28053000) and do not explicitly restrict processed mineral products containing trace REE. Relevant ministries have been instructed to establish technical guidelines covering REE definitions, content thresholds, testing standards and transitional arrangements, while exporters may continue normal shipments in the interim. The decision eases near-term concerns over export disruptions for Indonesian NPI producers and supports the continuity of downstream nickel shipments. However, regulatory uncertainty is likely to persist until the government finalises detailed REE content thresholds and inspection procedures