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Comment on the spot Exchange Day of SMM basic Metals on October 18
Oct 18,2019 20:36CST
Comment on the spot Exchange Day of SMM basic Metals on October 18
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

Copper: today, Yapanlun Copper opened at US $5747 / tonne. This morning, due to the announcement that China's GDP in the third quarter was lower than the previous value and expectations, market confidence was thwarted, superimposed by the recent slowdown in macroeconomic growth, and copper prices fluctuated and fell in the morning until they entered the European market, down US $5722.5 / ton. But then LME reported a 6700 tonne drop in copper inventories, the biggest one-day drop since May, as bulls took the opportunity to enter the market and copper prices soared to a high of $5769 a tonne. As of 17: 00, Lun Copper closed up 0.24 per cent at $5761 a tonne, with the dollar index at 97.569 and US crude oil at $54.08 a barrel. Late at night, economic data were light, focusing on speeches by Fed officials, and the recent dollar performance has fallen and has been affected by Brexit sentiment, which is expected to push copper prices back up, but upside expectations are limited. the weakness of the overall economy has suppressed bulk prices. At present, above the copper 5, 60 days moving average adhesion to form a greater resistance, the overall technical side waiting for the promotion of the macro situation, is expected to appear good turn. Waiting for the guidance of the dollar and crude oil at night to test whether Lun copper can effectively break through the $5770 / ton position. Today, the Shanghai copper main contract 1912 opened in the morning at 46670 yuan / ton, after the opening of the center of gravity moved up to 46700 yuan / ton, then the center of gravity remained stable until the end of the afternoon, the opening of the afternoon fell, the center of gravity down to 46590 yuan / ton near shock finishing, and then slightly rebounded to close at 46570 yuan / ton, down 60 yuan / ton, down 0.13%. Shanghai copper main contract daily reduction of 236 hands to 236000 hands; trading volume increased by 15000 hands to 120000 hands; Shanghai copper index positions increased 3600 hands to 571000 hands; trading volume increased 9970 hands to 232000 hands. Today, the market trend is weak, the overall operation below the daily average, as a result of the release of domestic GDP data for the third quarter this morning, the market confidence continued to decline; the recent crude oil trend is still tired, EIA and API crude oil stocks rose sharply, making oil prices basically fluctuating around $53 / barrel, reflecting market concerns about the demand side, thus further suppressing the trend of copper prices. At present, Shanghai copper collection entity Dayin column, the top pressure on a number of moving averages, the technical side of the resistance level is still strong, the night again test 46500 yuan / ton level. Today, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot contract rose 70 ~ 100 yuan / ton, Pingshui copper transaction price 46710 yuan / ton ~ 46750 yuan / ton, Shengshui copper transaction price 46730 yuan / ton ~ 46770 yuan / ton. Shanghai copper along the 46600 yuan / ton line finishing, the market price trend unchanged. The price of Pingshui copper is 70 ~ 80 yuan / ton, good copper is stable in 90 ~ 100 yuan / ton, wet copper is generally quoted 40 ~ 50 yuan / ton, the lower reaches favor the low price source of wet copper, and some of the goods can be received at low price to 30 yuan / ton. The source of low-price goods is still favored, but the quotation of the holder is stable, and there is no atmosphere of price reduction and cash conversion, the downstream maintains stable and rigid demand, trade lacks profit space and few speculators speculate, the supply of goods is still abundant, and it is difficult to push up to 100 yuan. It is also difficult to break through the fluctuation of the interval, and the supply and demand sides are in a stalemate again. The quotation in the afternoon is slightly deadlocked. As a result of entering the last trading session of the week, the transaction in the afternoon has gradually weakened, and the willingness of the holder to dump the goods is not strong, so the quotation in the afternoon is basically stable. In the afternoon, Pingshui copper reported 70-80 yuan / ton, good copper reported 90-100 yuan / ton, the transaction price in the range of 46640 yuan / ton-46720 yuan / ton.



Aluminum: Lun aluminum opens at $1727 per ton in the morning. In Asia, Lun aluminum maintained a weak 5-day moving average, hitting a low of $1723 a tonne. As of 15: 00 Aluminium was quoted at US $1724 / ton. European period, Lun aluminum changed the decline, seeking an upward breakthrough, quickly broke through the 5-day moving average, as of 18: 21 aluminum reported 1732.5 US dollars / ton, recorded the highest point in the day. Among non-ferrous metals, Lun aluminum due to increased overseas alumina supply pressure, falling prices, long lack of confidence, even if the US index fell, Lun aluminum did not see a significant rebound, only following the Shanghai aluminum rebound below the position gradually rebounded, the upper 10-day moving average pressure is still huge. It is expected that next week, as the upper 20 EMA converges with the 10-day EMA, Lun aluminum will continue to bear pressure, if the Shanghai aluminum rebound power appears to weaken, Lun aluminum may weaken, maintain a narrow range of shocks, running between 1700 and 1735 US dollars / ton.


Shanghai aluminum main force 1912 contract opened in the morning at 13890 yuan / ton. Short after the opening of the initiative to suppress aluminum prices, followed by long entry, long-short game intensified, before noon Shanghai aluminum to maintain a narrow range above the 10-day moving average shock. Afternoon short again pressure, Shanghai aluminum low touched 13835 yuan / ton, low led to a long entrance, Shanghai aluminum closed at 13850 yuan / ton of the 10-day moving average, showing a cross star, erasing the night before the rise. Positions fell 3066 to 232410, while the Shanghai Aluminum Index increased 4280 positions by 676822. This week, Shanghai aluminum stopped falling and rebounded, and the long-short game intensified obviously after Shanghai aluminum returned to a relatively high position. At present, the domestic electrolytic aluminum fundamentals are still facing stable consumption at this stage and the contradiction of increasing electrolytic aluminum supply pressure and cost downward in the future. This makes Shanghai aluminum continue to weaken upward momentum. We still need to pay attention to whether the inventory of social aluminum ingots can continue to decline next week. If the reduction continues, Shanghai Aluminum will have the possibility of touching the Wansi pass. It is expected that the operating range of Shanghai Aluminum will be 13750 yuan / ton next week.


Spot market, aluminum in the afternoon to maintain the range volatility. In the morning, the quotation in Shanghai Wuxi market was concentrated in the range of 14010-14030 yuan / ton, about 7080 yuan / ton, the supply of goods in the morning market was tight, the quotation of the holder was firm, the middleman received the goods actively, the two sides traded fairly well, and the actual transaction prices in Shanghai and tin markets began to concentrate between 1399014010 yuan / ton after 10: 30, the rising water was the same as in the morning. The price in Hangzhou is between 14030-14050 yuan / ton. Due to the hesitation of Gaosheng underwater middlemen to receive the goods, with the fermentation of the market atmosphere, the shippers began to increase their shipments, less and more state alleviated, 11: 00 after the transaction atmosphere turned light. Downstream manufacturers today on-demand goods, as spot aluminum prices in the high underwater over the ten thousand four levels, and has been rising for four consecutive days, downstream performance wait and see, although approaching the weekend, the actual stock is not as expected. The overall transaction in East China is OK today. In the afternoon, the aluminum sank slightly, the quotation of the holder was concentrated in 13970-13990 yuan / ton, the rising water was 60-80 yuan / ton, the market was light in the afternoon, only a small number of transactions were done between traders, and there were few transactions downstream.



Lead: within the day, lun lead opened at 2162 US dollars / ton. In the Asian period, Lunlun lead basically ran along the daily moving average in the early afternoon. In the afternoon, Lun lead briefly fell, but the 5-day moving average line was strongly supported. In the European period, the US index continued to fall, boosting the overall strength of non-ferrous metals on the outer plate. Lun lead took advantage of the opportunity to stand on the US $2200 / ton platform, and once touched US $2201 / ton, as of 17: 12, Lun lead temporarily closed at US $2200 / ton. Up $14 / ton, or 0.64%. Lun lead temporarily closed long shadow Xiao Yang line, along the 5, 10 moving average and break through the suppression position, Lun lead uplink space has been initially opened, and LME lead 0-3 litres of water is a large back market, at night may boost the long entry confidence, Lun lead is expected to hit a new high.


Within days, the Shanghai lead main force 1911 contract opened at 17135 yuan / ton, at the beginning of the day, Shanghai lead basically around the daily average shock, after being affected by the regenerated fine lead deep sticking water, the Shanghai lead center of gravity moved down to 17025 yuan / ton, the last time, short profit left the market, Shanghai lead rebounded slightly, and finally closed at 17055 yuan / ton, up 5 yuan / ton, up 0.03%, position reduced to 53360 hands. Shanghai lead closed in the small negative line, the pace of uplink was suspended, and nearly missed the Wanqi pass, considering that Wipanlun lead has stood at the US $2200 / ton level, to a certain extent, or boost the Shanghai lead trend, Shanghai lead may remain in the vicinity of Wanqi at night.


Shanghai market Jinsha, southern, Mudun lead 17025-17035 yuan / ton, 1911 contract discount 30-20 yuan / ton quotation; Zhejiang market bronze crown 17035 yuan / ton, 1911 contract discount 20 yuan / ton quotation, of which white goods can be discounted 5040 yuan / ton. Period lead rush high fall, the holder quotation every high active shipment, some continue to expand the offer discount, and downstream risk aversion less mining, recycled refined lead discount expanded to the electrolytic lead average price discount 500-400 yuan / ton factory, some can discount 500 yuan / ton to the factory, resulting in spot trade market shipment is very passive, transaction is very few.


Guangdong market South China lead 17075 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead up 50 yuan / ton quotation; southern storage south 17035 yuan / ton, 1911 contract discount 20 yuan / ton; lead price high dive downward, regenerated original price difference further opened to 500-600 yuan / ton, downstream priority to buy recycled refined lead. Henan Yuguang, Wanyang and other smelters mainly to long single transaction; Jinli 16925 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 100 yuan / ton quotation. Lead price diving downward, downstream fear of heating up, the market transaction continues a light trend. Other areas such as: Hunan Shuikoushan 16925-16975 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount to 50 yuan / ton quotation (traders); Hunan Jingui 16875 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 150 yuan / ton; Jiangxi copper industry 17055 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead rose 30 yuan / ton; the revitalization of Yunnan 16725 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount of 300 yuan / ton. Lead price fast dive, downstream consumption is light, the overall transaction is in the doldrums.



Zinc: zinc in Geneva opened at US $2422 / ton, Zinc opened low and walked high, the center of gravity quickly rose to US $2430 / ton, but under the strong suppression of the top 5-day moving average, Zinc fell back to US $2425 / tonne. Near the European trading session, the US index fell and boosted Zinc by US $2458 / ton. by 17: 29, Zinc closed at US $2458 / ton, up US $24 / ton, up 0.99 per cent. Geneva zinc temporary bald positive line, under the warming macro mood, the bulls entered the market to pull up Lun zinc, superimposed overseas LME0-3 water to continue to rise, but stocks continue to decline, overseas supply is still tight, or give Lun zinc certain support, pay attention to Brin Road on the track at night to suppress the strength.


The intraday Shanghai zinc main force 1912 contract opened at 18800 yuan / ton, the Shanghai zinc pressure daily moving average runs at the beginning of the day, the whole around 18800 yuan / ton first line narrow range concussion, during the many attempts to test the daily moving average suppression strength failed to make a line, near afternoon, the short collective left the market to boost the Shanghai zinc steady upward, touch the high 18890 yuan / ton, the tail fell slightly, closed up 18860 yuan / ton, up 30 yuan / ton, up 0.16%, the trading volume decreased 18602 to 191000 hand, the short side left the market to boost the Shanghai zinc steadily upward, touching 18890 yuan / ton, closing up 18860 yuan / ton, up 30 yuan / ton, up 0.16%, the trading volume decreased 18602 to 191000 hands. Positions were reduced by 5240 to 200000. Within the day, Shanghai zinc received a small positive line, attached to the shadow line on the 5-day moving average, the lower shadow line supported in the 40-day moving average, the intraday month-month contract monthly difference narrowed to 5 yuan / ton, the capital layout of the far month, showing that the market near the weak and far strong pattern gradually strengthened, the bulls did not have the confidence to take the initiative to buy, pay attention to the Brin Road middle rail suppression at night.


The mainstream transaction of zinc in Shanghai was 18880,18900 yuan / ton, and that of Shuangyan and Huize was 18890-18910 yuan / ton, that of zinc was 110-120 yuan / ton in November, that of Shuangyan and Huize was 120-130 yuan / ton, and that of zinc was 18810-18830 yuan / ton. The first trading session, the morning holder quite high water quotation, with the market offer on the 1911 contract rose 130 yuan / ton, but the market transaction is light, the holder lowered the rising water quotation to 120 yuan / ton, but the transaction is still light, the market mainstream to the SMM net average price discount 5 yuan / ton transaction; in the second trading session, the zinc price continues the concussion market, the holder maintains the rising water quotation to the 1911 contract liter water 110-120 yuan / ton, each brand still maintains the priceless difference; the second trading session, the zinc price continues to fluctuate the market, the holder maintains the rising water quotation in the 1911 contract liter water 110-120 yuan / ton, each brand still maintains the priceless difference; Trading in the trade market is active, downstream enterprises meet bargains to replenish the warehouse, but still maintain in the rigid demand inventory, the market as a whole, the transaction is still good.


Guangdong zinc mainstream transaction in 18760-18800 yuan / ton, the quotation focused on Shanghai zinc 1911 contract discount 5-10 yuan / ton, Guangdong market than Shanghai stock market discount expanded from 100 yuan / ton to 110 yuan / ton. Refinery normal shipment, the market supply circulation is more abundant. In the morning, the quotation of the holder is about 20 yuan / ton for the 11 contract, but the receiver is not strong, and the transaction is concentrated around 10 yuan / ton for the 11 contract. Entering the second trading period, the market transaction is concentrated near the flat water of the 11 contract, and some of the holders are selling a small discount of 5 yuan / ton to the 11 contract. The market transaction is slightly boosted, and most of them are mainly received by traders. Downstream rigid demand procurement, the overall transaction atmosphere is slightly cooler than yesterday. Yi Qilin, Cishan, Tiefeng, Mengzi mainstream transactions in 18760-18800 yuan / ton near.


The mainstream transaction of zinc ingots in Tianjin market was 18820-20250 yuan / ton, the mainstream transaction of ordinary brands was 1877018930 / ton, the 1911 contract rose 70-200 yuan / ton, and the rising water of Tianjin market was stable at 30 yuan / ton compared with Shanghai stock market. Refinery shipments are normal today. In the market, the supply tension has eased slightly, but the overall situation is still tight. The quotation of the source of high-priced brand is concentrated in the vicinity of 160-200 yuan / ton of 1911 liters of water, and the quotation of the source of ordinary brand is about 70140 yuan / ton of 11 liters of water. Disk finishing operation, rising water is still deadlocked, the market buying interest is lower, the shippers are more willing to ship, but the downstream receiving interest is not high, the holders slightly down the rising water, the downstream buying is slightly better. Overall, today's deal continues yesterday's light trend. Zi Zijin, Hongye, Bailing, Chihong, Xikuang, etc., were traded in 18820-18980 yuan / ton, and Zi Zijin, Chi Hong and Hongye were traded in 18770-18930 yuan / ton.



Tin: after the opening of US $17080 / ton today, after the opening of the Asian session to the opening of the European market, Lunxi generally maintained a narrow consolidation near the opening price. Then Lunxi quickly fell to $17000 / ton and then hit bottom and returned to the opening price. As of 18: 45, the latest price of Lunxi was $17085 / ton, showing a cross star line, located above all moving averages. Resistance above Lunxi is expected to be around $17200 / tonne. In the short term, we should be alert to the possibility of a small downward trend. Support below Lunxi is expected to be near the 5-day moving average of $16900 / tonne.


Shanghai tin main force 2001 contract last night 140500 yuan / ton skydiving high opened, the beginning of the session quickly rushed up to a daily high of 141790 yuan / ton after bearing the pressure to fall back. After the opening of 140770 yuan / ton in early trading this morning, it generally maintained a narrow consolidation near 140500 yuan / ton below the daily average, and finally closed at 140530 yuan / ton, up 910 yuan / ton, or 0.65%. The trading volume was 53558 hands, the position volume was 42966 hands, and the number of hands was reduced by 442 hands. Today, some of the long high positions closed in profit, Shanghai tin rushed higher after the center of gravity slightly down, to the cross star line closed, but stabilized above 140000 yuan / ton. The resistance above tin in Shanghai is expected to be around 142000 yuan / ton.


Spot market, today's mainstream transaction price 138000-141000 yuan / ton, there are a small number of 137800 yuan / ton near the fixed price small brand supply. Today, tin prices up and down the enterprise wait-and-see mentality is strong, the overall buying interest is weak, a small number of traders in the market are cautious in receiving goods on a bargain basis. The price of smelter is high, and the actual shipment situation of most refineries is not ideal. Shanghai tin 2001 contract set Yunxi flat water-rising water 500 yuan / ton, ordinary cloud word rising water 300-discount 500 yuan / ton, small brand discount 500-1000 yuan / ton.



Nickel: Lenny Asia opened at $16235 a tonne today, with its center of gravity fluctuating in a narrow range around the daily moving average before noon. In the afternoon, after a low of $16190 / ton, Lunni rose slightly, repeatedly probing the first line of $16400 / ton, the pressure breakthrough failed, and fell back, as of 16: 30, reported at $16230 / ton, down 0.95% from the settlement price on the previous trading day, trading volume decreased by 7600 hands to 1570 hands, position increased by 2000 hands to 278000 hands. Lunni temporarily closed in the small negative line, the top is faced with multiple EMA pressure, there is no other support below, pay attention to the support of 16000 US dollars / ton integer gate to Lunni at night. Tonight, focus on the monthly rate of leading indicators for the Conference Board in September; event focus on the speech by Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Clarida (Richard Clarida) on economic and monetary policy in Boston.


The Shanghai Nickel 1912 contract opened today at 128900 yuan / tonne. Before noon, the Shanghai nickel center of gravity revolved around 129000 yuan / tonne for a narrow range of oscillations. In the afternoon, Shanghai nickel down 128150 yuan / ton, short positions reduced, Shanghai nickel rose, breaking through the 130000 yuan / ton line, touch high 130700 yuan / ton, above 130000 yuan led to a long closing position, give up part of the increase, closed at 129300 yuan / ton, compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day fell 800 yuan / ton, down 0.61%, position reduced by 9000 hands to 362000 hands, trading volume reduced by 580000 hands to 1.248 million hands. Shanghai nickel closed in the small yang line, the bottom of the 60-day moving average support, night continued to pay attention to the 60-day moving average of 128500 yuan / ton of first-line support for Shanghai nickel.


In the spot market, Russian nickel today rose 300 yuan to 400 yuan / ton compared with Shanghai Nickel 1911, while Jinchuan Nickel generally reported 500-600 yuan / ton higher than Shanghai Nickel 1911 contract. Today, nickel prices show signs of stopping and falling. Nickel prices fluctuate around a narrow range of 130600 in the morning, with no significant change. Spot market transactions were slightly better than yesterday, but the improvement was not obvious. Basically, there are concentrated transactions near 130600, with 300 yuan per ton of water rising between traders, and the purchase of downstream markets is flat. On the whole, the transaction today is slightly better than yesterday, but not as active as the first half of the week. According to SMM, large steel mills have recently received nickel plates, resulting in a small supply of negotiable goods. The ex-factory price of Jinchuan Company is 131300 yuan / ton, 400 yuan / ton lower than yesterday. The mainstream transaction is in the range of 130800 yuan / ton to 131400 yuan / ton. The volatility of nickel prices in the afternoon is larger than that in the morning, but the market response is mediocre, and near the weekend, transactions are also affected to a certain extent.


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