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Review of SMM basic Metals spot Trading Day on October 17th
Oct 17,2019 19:13CST
Review of SMM basic Metals spot Trading Day on October 17th
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

Copper: today, Yapanlun Copper opened at US $5721 / tonne. After the opening of the market, as the market waited for further news of Brexit in the evening, the market was more hesitant, and after entering the European market, the overall performance confidence was insufficient. The center of gravity of copper prices fell, probing down 5705 US dollars / tonne. But then the Chinese authorities spoke, showing optimism about Sino-US trade sentiment. Superimposed Brexit seemed to have made progress, short positions closed, and copper prices quickly rebounded from low levels. The upswing was relatively rapid, with a brief finishing around $5750 a tonne, and then rushed to the top of $5770. As of 17: 30, Lun Copper closed up $40 at $5761.5 a tonne, with the dollar index at $97.6 and US crude oil at $53.23 a barrel. Pay attention to the progress of Brexit in the evening, the current Brexit prospects are optimistic, the dollar plummeted, good copper prices. At present, the technical surface of Lun copper is trapped in multiple perihelion averages, and the top is directly under the heavy pressure of the 60-day moving average and the 5-day moving average, although the positive entity appears to be getting better. Waiting for the guidance of the dollar and crude oil at night, test whether Lun copper can effectively break through the top $5780 / ton position.


Today, the Shanghai copper main contract 1912 opened in the morning at 46650 yuan / ton, after the opening of the center of gravity that is to maintain 46650 yuan / ton near the shock finishing, has continued to close an hour before the close, and then down to the day's lowest level of 46580 yuan / ton, the end of the day slightly rebounded and closed at 46650 yuan / ton, down 0.49%. The main contract of Shanghai Copper increased its position by 6057 hands to 237000 hands, and the trading volume increased by 3984 hands to 105000 hands. At present, the position continues to move backward, with 11000 new positions in Shanghai Copper 2001 and 2002 contracts, an increase of 18000 hands in the Shanghai Copper Index to 568000 hands, and an increase in trading volume of 31000 hands to 222000 hands. The trend continued to maintain stability today, mainly due to the continued weakness of global economic data released in recent days, and the market heightened concerns about macroeconomic weakness. At the same time, the current hindrance of Brexit negotiations has exacerbated market uncertainty, and the low position of copper in Shanghai has maintained stability. At present, Shanghai copper has lost all moving average support, MACD green column continues to stretch, waiting for the outer disk guide test at night can continue to maintain the 46500 yuan / ton level.


Today, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot contract rose 50 ~ 80 yuan / ton, Pingshui copper transaction price 46670 yuan / ton ~ 46710 yuan / ton, Shengshui copper transaction price 46690 yuan / ton ~ 46730 yuan / ton. Overnight outer plate continued to fall, Shanghai copper followed closely down, copper prices today in the vicinity of 46600 yuan / ton narrow volatility. After the copper price falls back, the holder has the intention to raise the price, the early market quotation rises 60 ~ rises 80 yuan / ton, the trader still has to the flat water copper bargain receives the goods, the early market may press the price to the flat water copper rises 50 yuan / ton, but soon the holder is unwilling to reduce the rising water shipment, the good copper is still less popular than the flat copper, the quotation is almost the same as the flat copper in the rising water 60 yuan / ton, the wet copper quotation is firm in the rising water 30 yuan / ton first line. The second section trading time, the market maintains the stability quotation rises the water 60 ~ rises the water 80 yuan range. After the market fell, the downstream inquiry increased, but because the holder quotation was firm and unwilling to reduce the price for shipment, it was difficult to reach an agreement, and the willingness of traders to enter the market on the premise of rising water was reduced, and the supply and demand sides returned to the sawing stalemate that had not been seen for a long time. In the afternoon, the market continued to push prices, but the price space is limited, good copper trading situation is still less than flat copper, in the afternoon Pingshui copper 60 ~ 70 yuan / ton, good copper 80 ~ 90 yuan / ton, transaction price in the range of 46630 yuan / ton-46730 yuan / ton.



Aluminum: Lun aluminum opens at $1727 per ton in the morning. In the Asian session, Lun aluminum maintained a narrow range of shocks, falling below the 5-day moving average low of $1722 / tonne before noon, and closing at $1723.5 / tonne at 15: 00. During the European period, Lun Aluminium continued to fluctuate within a narrow range around the 5-day moving average, reaching a high of $1728 per tonne and closing at $1727 per tonne at 16: 46. On the whole, due to the increase in overseas alumina supply pressure, non-ferrous metal plate Lun aluminum is obviously weak, although the center of gravity of the US index has moved down, it is difficult to raise the aluminum price, and the top 10-day moving average is under greater pressure. Domestic Shanghai aluminum phased rebound to give Lun aluminum some support, but not enough to support its rebound to make up, it is expected to continue to maintain the 10-day moving average range shock in the evening.


Shanghai aluminum main contract 1912 morning opened at 13820 yuan / ton, located above the 5-day moving average. After the opening of the long warehouse entry, Shanghai aluminum shock quickly broke through the 10-day moving average, high touch 13870 yuan / ton. High led to short positions into the market, Shanghai aluminum increase shock narrowed, the end of the market part of the profit-taking, Shanghai aluminum closed at 13855 yuan / ton. Positions fell 1966 to 235476, while the Shanghai Aluminum Index increased 5550 positions to 672542. Today's social aluminum ingot inventory fell by 61000 tons per week, in line with the market expectations of stable consumption, Shanghai aluminum recorded three Lianyang. The electrolytic aluminum market is faced with the contradiction between the stable consumption in the near future and the increase of long-term supply and the downward pressure of cost, which makes the lower center of gravity rise, but the rebound space is also relatively limited. It is suggested to increase the short-term band operation.


Spot market, aluminum in the afternoon to maintain the range volatility. In the morning, due to the tight supply of goods in circulation, the shippers did not ship much, and the market quotation was chaotic, concentrated in the range of 13960-13990 yuan / ton, but there were not many transactions, and most traders had to wait and see. A large household received the goods in a small amount at the price of 13950 yuan / ton in the morning. After 10:30, the market transaction price was stable at 13970-13990 yuan / ton. The rising water was 60-80 yuan / ton, and the rising water was nearly 40 yuan / ton higher than yesterday. Absolute prices rose around 90 yuan / ton from yesterday, and large households subsequently raised their quotations but did not fill their planned purchases. The price in Hangzhou area is between 13980-13990 yuan / ton, the transaction is general. In the later period of high prices in Shanghai and tin, the shipments of the shippers increased, but the willingness to offer was strong, the middlemen were willing to receive the goods, and the two sides traded actively. Today SMM statistics of the country's mainstream consumption of electrolytic aluminum inventory month-on-month fell by more than 60, 000 tons, the market is expected to continue to go to the warehouse, the market supply becomes tight, receiving goods in the past two days is very positive, and some traders feedback at the end of the month to upgrade the national VAT system will affect the issue of the current month ticket, because the invoice and long order delivery considerations, tend to pay close attention to the purchase of the month ticket goods. Downstream manufacturers today on-demand goods, and traders downstream bulk cargo is not much, mostly delivered to other traders transactions or downstream long orders. The overall transaction in East China is better today. Aluminum in the afternoon to maintain a narrow range of fluctuations, a small number of holders quoted in 13970-13980 yuan / ton, to the disk water 70 yuan / ton, the afternoon market transaction atmosphere is not high, the actual transaction is not much.



Lead: within the day, Lun lead opened at US $2162 / tonne. In the Asian session, Lun lead followed the inner market rally and rose to around US $2171 / ton. However, the US $2200 / ton platform was under strong pressure. The pressure on Lun lead fell back to below the daily moving average. Entering the European period, the decline of the US dollar and the long market of Lun lead made some bears choose to leave the market. Lun lead rose above US $2175, as of 18: 00, Lun lead reported at US $2177 / ton. Up $9 / ton, or 0.45%. Lun lead temporarily closed a long film Xiao Yang line, LME lead discount to back structure, Lun lead rising market seems to be unfinished, has been maintaining the momentum, at night to pay attention to Lun lead can break through 2200 US dollars / ton suppression platform.


Within days, the Shanghai lead main force 1911 contract short opened at 17065 yuan / ton, at the beginning of the day, the bulls continued to enter the market to pull up the lead price to 17145 yuan / ton, after the Shanghai lead upward power slightly insufficient, fell back to the daily average line above the shock, finally closed at 17095 yuan / ton, up 190 yuan / ton, up 1.12%, the position increased by 2080 hands to 53966 hands. The Shanghai lead Index increased its position by 8714 to 107246, and gradually increased its position in the far month. the price difference between the month and the other month widened to 200 yuan / ton, and the contract price difference between the month and 2001 widened to 400 yuan / ton. Shanghai lead closed at the Dayang line, the continued strength of the outer plate, to a certain extent, boosted the bulls' confidence in entering the market, paying attention to whether Shanghai lead can break through with the rising lead at night. At the same time, pay attention to the price difference between the near and far months.


Shanghai market Jinsha, southern, Mu Ron lead 17070-17100 yuan / ton, the 1911 contract discount 30 yuan / ton to flat water quotation, of which white goods can be discounted 50-40 yuan / ton. Lead strong upward, holders actively quote shipments, mostly partial paste water shipment, and recycled refined lead discount expansion, quoted to the average price of electrolytic lead 500-300 yuan / ton, at the same time downstream battery enterprises do not hold optimistic expectations for the future market, more wait-and-see attitude, bulk market transactions are weak.


Guangdong market South China lead 17050 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead rose 50 yuan / ton quotation; lead price rose rapidly, recycled primary price difference further opened to 400-500 yuan / ton, downstream priority to buy recycled refined lead, so the primary lead market transaction is flat. Henan Yuguang, Wanyang and other smelters mainly to long single transaction; Jinli 16930 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 70 yuan / ton quotation. Lead prices quickly upward, downstream wait-and-see-based, market transactions continue a light trend. Other areas such as: Hunan Shuikoushan 16900-16950 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 100 to 50 yuan / ton quotation (traders); Hunan Jingui 16850 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 150 yuan / ton; Jiangxi copper industry 17020 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead rose 20 yuan / ton; Anhui bronze crown 17050 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM net rose 50 yuan / ton; Yunnan small factory 16650-16700 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 300-350 yuan / ton. Lead prices are rising rapidly, downstream consumption is light, and overall transactions are in the doldrums.



Zinc: zinc in Geneva opened at US $2417.5 / ton, and zinc briefly rose by US $2424.5 / ton, just as the suppression of the 5-day moving average appeared, and Zinc fell to US $2410 / ton for first-line finishing and operation, and entered the European trading session. Just as the US index dived, Zinc rose higher, touching US $2439 / ton, and as of 17: 42, Zinc closed at US $2437 / ton, up US $19.50 / ton, up 0.81 per cent. Geneva zinc received a bald small positive line, the whole around the 5-day moving average, the back structure continues, LME zinc inventory stable decline, internal and external trend differentiation, Lun zinc temporarily strong support, at night or still around the 5-day moving average.


Intraday Shanghai zinc main force 1912 contract opened at 18880 yuan / ton, at the beginning of the day Shanghai zinc high open low walk, explore the daily moving average support strength, short one after another to increase positions to suppress zinc prices, Shanghai zinc downward down 18705 yuan / ton, the end of the day rose slightly, closed down 18735 yuan / ton, down 1.29%, trading volume decreased 5754 hands to 210000 hands, position increased 8230 hands to 205000 hands. Within days, Shanghai zinc received a small negative line, attached to the shadow line on the Brin Road middle track, the KDJ index showed that the inflection head down, showing that the Shanghai zinc downward trend is more obvious, the increase in positions in the day is mainly short, resulting in Shanghai zinc downward, showing that the supply increase is expected, the bulls still do not have the confidence to enter the market, the spot rising water is slightly lower, the Shanghai zinc action can be considered temporarily, and pay attention to the suppressing intensity of the Brin road middle track at night.


The mainstream transaction of zinc in Shanghai was 18840-18950 yuan / ton, and that of Shuangyan and Huize was 18850-18960 yuan / ton, that of zinc was 110-120 yuan / ton in November, that of Shuangyan and Huize was 120-130 yuan / ton, and that of zinc was 18770-18880 yuan / ton. In the first trading session, with the end of the meeting, the shippers' mood resumed, and the average price of ordinary brand zinc ingots on SMM was 5-10 yuan / ton, which rose 110-120 yuan / ton to the 1911 contract. In the second trading session, the zinc price continued to weaken, and the holder maintained the rising price of 110-120 yuan / ton on the 1911 contract. With the end of the lead and zinc meeting, trading in the trade market resumed active, downstream enterprises bargain replenishment, but still maintained in the rigid demand inventory, the overall shipper shipment sentiment is greater than the receiving sentiment.


The mainstream transaction of Guangdong zinc was 18720-18820 yuan / ton, and the Shanghai zinc 1911 contract was reported near 20-20 yuan / ton, while the discount in Guangdong stock market was maintained from 160 yuan / ton to 100 yuan / ton yesterday. Refinery normal shipment, the market supply circulation is more abundant, the morning quotation of the holder is concentrated in the 11 contract discount 20 yuan / ton, but the consignee is willing to receive the goods in 11-30 yuan / ton, the market transaction is relatively smooth. Enter the second trading session, traders see the trend to 11 contracts rose 20 yuan / ton near, the market transaction gradually weakened. Overall, the transaction in Guangdong City today is better, traders are willing to receive goods actively, downstream every drop to make up for the warehouse, transactions are better than yesterday. Yi Qilin, Cishan, Tiefeng, Mengzi mainstream transactions in 18720-18820 yuan / ton near.


The mainstream transaction of zinc ingots in Tianjin market is 18850-20360 yuan / ton, the mainstream transaction of ordinary brands is 18800-18910 / ton, the rising water of 1911 contract is about 80-180 yuan / ton, and the rising water of Tianjin market is stable at 30 yuan / ton compared with Shanghai stock market. Refinery shipments are normal today. In the market, the supply of goods is still relatively tight. The quotation of high-priced brand source is concentrated in about 150-180 yuan / ton of 11 liter water, and that of ordinary brand is about 80120 yuan / ton of 11 liter water. Disk downward, rising water stalemate, the market is still more bearish mainly wait-and-see, downstream buying a little boost. On the whole, today's transaction is slightly better than yesterday, but the whole is still relatively light. Zi Zijin, Hongye, Bailing, Chihong, Xikuang, etc., were traded in 18850-18960 yuan / ton, and Zi Zijin, Chi Hong and Hongye were traded in 18800-18910 yuan / ton.



Tin: after the opening of US $16890 / ton today, the sub-session generally remained in the vicinity of the opening price. After the opening of the European market, affected by the decline of the dollar index, Lunxi fluctuated all the way up. As of 17: 00, the latest price of Lunxi was $17150 / ton, showing a positive line, located above all moving averages. Resistance above Lunxi is expected to be near the previous high of $17600 / ton. Shanghai tin main force 2001 contract last night after the opening of 138720 yuan / ton, the beginning of the session quickly rose to a night high of 139640 yuan / ton. Subsequently, until the end of the night, tin in Shanghai remained at a high level near the daily moving average of 139200 yuan / ton. After the opening of 139520 yuan / ton this morning, the overall still maintained at a higher level of wide horizontal finishing, and finally closed at 139620 yuan / ton, showing a small positive line, up 830 yuan / ton, up 0.60%. The trading volume was 42448 hands, the position was 43408 hands, an increase of 1704 hands. Today, Shanghai tin upward to make up for the previous jump gap, the upper resistance is expected to be located in the integer level of 140000 yuan / ton. Spot market, today's mainstream transaction price 137500-140500 yuan / ton, due to the high price of tin in Shanghai, downstream enterprises buy Xing overall weak, Shanghai tin spot market overall transaction atmosphere is weak. Shanghai tin 2001 contract set Yunxi Shengshui 700-1000 yuan / ton, ordinary Yunzi Pingshui near-liter 500 yuan / ton, small brand discount 700-1000 yuan / ton.



Nickel: Lunni Asia opened at $16375 / tonne today, after opening, Lunni all the way down, down $16085 / tonne, then, slightly shock repair, breaking through the daily average of $16200 / tonne line, at 18: 30, at $16275 / tonne, down $110per tonne, down 0.7 per cent, trading volume fell 2292 hands to 4955 hands, position 276000 hands. The price of nickel: nickel opened at $16375 / tonne today, after the opening, Lunni all the way down, down $16085 / tonne, then, slightly revised up to break through the daily average of $16200 / tonne, at $16275 / tonne, down 0.7 per cent. Lunni temporarily closed in the small negative column, completely below the 60-day moving average, there is no other support below, tonight to see if Lunni can hold the $16000 / tonne level. This evening focused on the monthly rate of industrial output in the United States in September, the United States to October 11 week EIA natural gas stocks (100 million cubic feet), the United States to October 11 week EIA crude oil stocks (10,000 barrels).


Shanghai Nickel 1912 contract opened today at 130280 yuan / ton, after the opening, Shanghai nickel weakened downward, near the midday closing time, down 127340 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, Shanghai nickel rebounded slightly, the center of gravity around 128000 yuan / ton horizontal shock finishing, and finally closed at 128750 yuan / ton, compared with the previous trading day settlement price fell 3940 yuan / ton, down 2.97%, trading volume increased by 719000 hands to 1.828 million hands, position increased by 13000 hands to 371000 hands. The Shanghai Nickel 1911 contract reduced its position by 23484 hands today, while the 1912 and 2001 contracts increased their positions by 12928 and 11848 respectively. Throughout the day, the Shanghai Nickel 1912 contract closed in the long negative column, the shadow line down the 60-day moving average 128500 yuan / ton line, the top is faced with a number of moving average pressure, pay attention to whether Shanghai nickel can get 60-day moving average support, to maintain the 128000 yuan / ton level.


Today, Russian nickel rose 300 yuan to 400 yuan / ton compared with Shanghai Nickel 1911. Jinchuan Nickel generally reported 400-600 yuan / ton compared with Shanghai Nickel 1911 contract. Only a few traders reported 400 yuan / ton, and generally reported 600 yuan / ton. Today's nickel prices continued yesterday's decline, opening all the way lower. In the process of falling, the response of the spot market is mediocre, fully reflecting the mentality of buying up and not buying and falling, and is generally pessimistic about the future. Russian nickel rising water continues to rise slightly, but the trading is not ideal, because the source of negotiable goods is tight superimposed nickel price fell sharply, the holder is more willing to rise. However, there are still some low-liter water supply transactions, Jinchuan Shengshui 400 yuan / ton has the actual transaction. On the whole, it is not as active as the first half of the week, converging with yesterday. The ex-factory price of Jinchuan Company is 131700 yuan / ton, 3000 yuan / ton higher than yesterday. In the afternoon, nickel prices basically maintained a narrow range of fluctuations around 130000, the market has not yet improved, the level of activity continued in the morning, waiting for a further correction in nickel prices.



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