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[SMM midday review] non-ferrous metals rise and fall mixed black system dim before noon
Oct 16,2019 11:58CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM, Oct. 16: this morning non-ferrous metals mixed, as of noon closing, Shanghai tin rose 1.16%, Shanghai lead, Shanghai aluminum rose slightly, Shanghai nickel is still floating in the low level.

Among them, nickel, industry insiders believe that with the gradual release of Indonesian nickel pig iron supply pressure, domestic stainless steel high inventory pressure, will be a drag on nickel prices in the short term. However, the trend of nickel prices in the later stage should not be pessimistic, but there are supply concerns. Zhou Lei of Cinda Futures believes that with the dust settling down in the event of an early ban on mines in Indonesia, there will be significant changes in the supply and demand structure of nickel mines in the future. While Philippine nickel miners are likely to increase output next year, their supplies are not comparable to Indonesia's higher-grade ore. Moreover, several high-grade mines in the Philippines are facing the pressure of resource depletion. It is worth noting that the recent decline in the sea freight of nickel mines from high levels may weaken the price increase of nickel mines. But there will be a traditional rainy season in Suriname, the Philippines, which means nickel supply remains a concern and higher nickel prices will continue the logic of rising costs. Zhou Lei believes that the subsequent rise in nickel prices is still supported by low inventories and rising costs, but the short-term nickel price is already relatively high and needs to be fully adjusted before it can be driven by the rise. Moreover, the weak fundamentals of the middle and long term in the fourth quarter have not improved, high stainless steel inventory and nickel pig iron investment and other factors will aggravate the market turmoil, nickel price above the space is limited.

On the copper side, the international focus was on the agreement reached between Antofagasta Mining (AntofagastaMinerals) and the Chilean LosPelambres Copper Mine Union to avoid a strike. The company said in a statement that it had reached an agreement with union leaders on a new labor contract, which is valid for 36 months, including a 1 per cent pay rise, $17000 in bonuses and loan incentives. The downturn in demand caused by the Sino-US trade dispute has also put pressure on copper prices. The International Monetary Fund warned on Tuesday that trade disputes would lead to the slowest growth in the global economy since the 2008-2009 financial crisis in 2019. Australian miner OceanGoldCorp has cut its copper production target to 10-110000 tonnes this year from 14-150000 tonnes, suspending production of the Didipio copper and gold mine in the Philippines because of a dispute with the local government.

Zinc: at present, the impact of environmental protection and production restriction is limited, and the production situation of the smelter is good. Under the condition that the processing fee is still high, the production enthusiasm of the smelter is maintained, and the inventory increases slowly with the increase of supply. The market shipment mood is not high, the market overall trading is relatively light, the market spot rising water is stronger, or gives the Shanghai zinc certain action energy. In addition, overseas Skorpion smelter shutdown news has been basically digested by the market, Lun zinc trend back to fundamentals, in the case of continuous decline in inventory, with rising momentum.

Black system, this morning black performance is bleak, most hovering in the low position, only coke slightly up. Recently, some environmental policies have been released. Tangshan City yesterday announced the start of heavy pollution weather class II emergency response measures, the implementation time from 20:00 on October 15, release time according to the results of the meeting to be notified. Among them, the iron and steel industry. Performance evaluation for grade C, sintering machine, pellet equipment, lime kiln production, in terms of production line; blast furnace production of more than 50% (including), in terms of blast furnace. If the performance evaluation is grade B and C, the early warning response time is more than 120 hours, and then the sintering machine and pellet equipment stop production by more than 50% (including), in terms of production line. Coking enterprises. The performance evaluation is grade B and C, and the coke oven prolongs the coke discharge time to 36 hours.

Crude oil fell more than 1% in the morning. EdwardMoya, senior market analyst at OANDA in New York, said: "as the two major tail risks to global demand-the trade war and Brexit-ease, the oil market is beginning to take some bullish positions." "although a broader trade agreement is unlikely to be reached in the near future, the risk of a trade dispute between China and the United States is diminishing," it said. " Final negotiations between the UK and the EU to reach a Brexit agreement ahead of this week's summit of EU leaders continued until Wednesday, but it remains unclear whether Britain can avoid postponing the Brexit meeting scheduled for October 31. Any agreement to avoid "hard Brexit" or "no agreement" should boost economic growth, thereby boosting oil demand and oil prices. OPEC Secretary General Barkin has said OPEC will do everything it can to keep the oil market stable beyond 2020, providing more support for oil prices.

The new LME Metal Mini Futures quotation launched by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange shows:


Today's stock

Zinc: the mainstream transaction of zinc ingots in Tianjin market was 18950-20470 yuan / ton, the mainstream transaction of ordinary brands was 18950-19070 / ton, the 1911 contract rose 80-180 yuan / ton, and the rising water in Tianjin market narrowed from 40 yuan / ton to 30 yuan / ton. Refinery shipments are normal today. In the market, the shortage of goods still exists. The quotation of high-priced brand source is concentrated in about 140-180 yuan / ton of 11 liter water, and the quotation of ordinary brand source is about 80-120 yuan / ton of 11 liter water. Disk downward, rising water stable, the market wait-and-see mood is becoming stronger, the downstream willingness to buy is still weak, only to maintain rigid demand to pick up goods. Overall, today's deal continues yesterday's light atmosphere. Zi Zijin, Hongye, Bailing, Chi Hong, Xikuang, etc., were traded in 18950-19070 yuan / ton, while Zi Zijin, Chi Hong and Hongye were traded in 18900-19020 yuan / ton.

Stainless steel: this morning Wuxi area quotation: state-owned 304 2B cut edge volume price 16100-16300 yuan / ton, private 304 2B rough edge roll price 16000-16100 yuan / ton. 304 / NO. 1 five feet at 15300-15400 yuan / ton. Today, the market transaction price is flat, some traders slightly reduced the cold rolling price 50 yuan / ton, because the nickel price falls, the downstream risk aversion mood aggravates, the transaction is slightly light. For 10:30 SHFE SS2002 contract selling price 15505 yuan / ton, Wuxi stainless steel spot rising water 365-465 yuan / ton (spot edge cutting = rough edge + 170 yuan / ton) < update >

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